The verdict from Saturday night's game is in: Florida State is still a great team, and Notre Dame showed that they're for real by almost beating the Seminoles. If FSU is #1, or very close to #1, then Notre Dame isn't far behind as they lost on the road by just 4 points.
That seems to be the general consensus. Florida State again "found a way to win" while Notre Dame almost won the game until a controversial penalty nullified the go-ahead touchdown. In any case, the Irish fought tooth-and-nail with a team that went 14-0 last year and was 6-0 going into the game last night.
Pretty convincing arguments, but apart from last year's play there isn't a lot of evidence to support the theory that Florida State is anything but an average top 25 team. And therefore by proxy, that Notre Dame is basically the same. Instead of moving Notre Dame up in estimation, perhaps the game was notice that FSU belonged in the same "questionable" category where many held the Irish?
Our All-Division Strength power rating shows Florida State and Notre Dame as merely typical top 25 teams:
# Team rec Rating Offense[rnk] Defense[rnk]
1. Auburn 5-1 81.61 69.09 [ 6] -12.51 [ 4]
2. Alabama 6-1 80.03 64.12 [ 12] -15.91 [ 1]
3. Mississippi 7-0 78.87 63.28 [ 14] -15.59 [ 2]
4. Mississippi St 6-0 76.73 70.20 [ 1] -6.52 [ 9]
5. Georgia 6-1 74.94 69.87 [ 3] -5.07 [ 16]
...
19. Notre Dame 6-1 63.57 58.11 [ 32] -5.46 [ 13]
20. Tennessee 3-4 63.30 55.35 [ 46] -7.94 [ 8]
21. Florida St 7-0 63.14 62.72 [ 17] -0.42 [ 45]
Florida State comes in at #21 and Notre Dame a few spots higher; Saturday's 31-27 result, given 3.5 points for home field advantage, makes sense as long as FSU and Notre Dame are rated close together. It doesn't matter whether or not the teams are close to the top or near the bottom of the top 25. Our power rating puts them near the bottom based on their body of work.
Our ratings aren't alone when evaluating the Seminoles as a top-25 also-ran. Sagarin's Predictor puts FSU at #16, ESPN's FPI Efficiency has them #24, and pretty much any power rating that uses margin of victory is disappointed with them this year. There are power ratings which reward success rather than score and put them #1 or close to it, but considering they're 7-0 that's to be expected. Again, is there a reason other than their record, and last year's performance, to consider them a top ten team?
Pollsters and Vegas Put FSU Near the Top
Let's look at opinions other than computer power ratings. The pollsters have them at #2, but they started at #1 so they're not going to be far off that as long as they win. If they'd started outside the top 25 they'd probably be #3 since there are only 3 major undefeated teams. So the amount of information the pollsters can provide is marginal.
What about Vegas? The oddsmakers seem to think highly of the Seminoles, making them huge favorites in every game. Vegas reflects the sum knowledge of expert oddsmakers and the betting public. So that's a strong vote for the "FSU is a great team" position. However the Seminoles are 1-6 against the spread this year, a strong argument for "FSU is overrated." Florida State was a 12 to 14 point favorite over Notre Dame and won by 4, just one point from our power rating's predicted margin.
Why Strength ranks the Seminoles so low
Who has Florida State beaten, and how good are those teams? Why does our Strength power rating value the Seminoles so poorly?
rnk Team score rating
= # 42 Oklahoma St 37-31 61.9
#181 The Citadel 37-12 46.2
# 13 Clemson 23-17ot 66.2
@ # 69 North Carolina St 56-41 63.4
#138 Wake Forest 43- 3 69.2
@ # 60 Syracuse 38-20 69.4
# 19 Notre Dame 31-27 65.7
Above we see FSU's schedule: the ranks of the teams they've played, the score, and the value assigned to that outcome. They've played two top 25 teams, Clemson and Notre Dame, both at home, both ending in very narrow wins. The beat a mediocre Oklahoma State on a neutral field (semi-away game) by 6 points, and soundly beat two below average teams (the computer doesn't see anything but the NC State final score, so the fact that they struggled early isn't an issue). They played two terrible teams and beat them by 25 and 40 at home.
The resultant game values are pretty consistent across the board, except for the game against The Citadel. We can excuse that as unrepresentative and remove it; if we do so FSU's rating goes from 63.14 to 65.96 and they'd move up to #16. The Clemson game might be factored out, too, since Jameis Winston didn't play in it, but it's not hurting their rating (the Tigers rank higher than FSU).
How FSU's High Ranking Can Be Justified: Success
Really, the only way Florida State can be considered a great team is if they are a team that "plays down" to its competition. Perhaps overconfident and therefore sloppy, perhaps not as "hungry" as they were last year after winning a title, the Seminoles start slow and/or take their foot off the gas early. And unlike an average team—which would be expected to lose a game here and there—they still win, because they really are a great team and that's the difference in the end.
Under this scenario, it's the winning itself that proves they're a great team. We use our Success ratings, along with Strength, to form our Overall power rating to capture the quality of team like this—a team that might not impress people with blowouts, but keeps winning, an outcome people don't argue with. Our Success ratings look like this, with FSU at #3:
# Team rec Overall Strength Success
1. Mississippi 7-0 47.41 [ 1] 33.90 [ 3] 13.51 [ 1]
2. Mississippi St 6-0 44.25 [ 2] 31.57 [ 5] 12.68 [ 2]
3. Florida St 7-0 32.82 [ 7] 21.71 [ 15] 11.11 [ 3]
4. Oregon 6-1 32.81 [ 8] 25.81 [ 11] 7.00 [ 4]
5. Arizona 5-1 21.36 [ 22] 15.29 [ 29] 6.07 [ 5]
And our Combined power rating looks like this through Saturday's (10/18) games:
# Team rec Overall Strength Success
1. Mississippi 7-0 47.41 [ 1] 33.90 [ 3] 13.51 [ 1]
2. Mississippi St 6-0 44.25 [ 2] 31.57 [ 5] 12.68 [ 2]
3. Auburn 5-1 42.40 [ 3] 36.53 [ 1] 5.86 [ 6]
4. Alabama 6-1 41.07 [ 4] 35.25 [ 2] 5.82 [ 7]
5. TCU 5-1 37.16 [ 5] 31.82 [ 4] 5.34 [ 9]
6. Georgia 6-1 35.26 [ 6] 30.19 [ 6] 5.06 [ 11]
7. Florida St 7-0 32.82 [ 7] 21.71 [ 15] 11.11 [ 3]
At least here, FSU is in the top ten, with their FBS-only Strength at #15 and Success at #3.
But it's still puzzling. In terms of winning games, they haven't changed from last year. But in terms of dominance they're not at all the same. Last year's FSU team was off the charts in Strength, with the #2 team almost 9 points behind. This year's team rates almost 20 points worse, with big quality drops in both offense and (especially) defense.
The Future: What will the rest of their schedule prove?
Florida State's remaining schedule is solid but doesn't contain any top teams, so it won't prove anything one way or the other unless they start winning big (like a top 5 team should) or lose a game.
- 10/30 @ #26 Louisville
- 11/08 vs #36 Virginia
- 11/15 @ #43 Miami
- 11/22 vs #39 Boston College
- 11/29 vs #31 Florida
The Louisville game is of particular interest as it's FSU's highest-ranked opponent left, and it's a road game. If we give 3.5 points for home field advantage, the Cardinals are favored (crazy, huh?).
A great team would dominate that schedule; a team that is merely "good" would probably lose one of the games. So maybe we'll learn something in the coming weeks. Or, maybe Florida State will do what they've done all year so far and never quite answer the question—winning games, but never impressing.
If that's the case, we'll see the Seminoles in the Playoff before knowing how they measure up to the very best teams. Maybe they'll end up resembling the 2002 Miami Hurricanes, who followed up their national title in 2001 with a less-than-impressive, but still undefeated, 2002 before being upset in the national championship game. Or maybe they're more like the 2002 Ohio State Buckeyes, who cheated death numerous times, showed only occasional flashes of brilliance, and didn't rank in the top 10 in Strength until they'd won the national title.
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