Last pre-season rankings update finds Auburn on top, Baylor #2

For six weeks we've been updating our pre-season ratings, modifying them using the week's game results, but that all ends next week when we'll by using the unbiased Strength power rating only. Next week, 95% of teams will have 6 or more games under their belt and we can get rid of any pre-season assumptions. For the first 3 weeks pre-season assumptions are essential to "ground" teams as unbiased power ratings look pretty random; after last weekend (week six), teams have played 5 or 6 games and we combine the "revised" pre-season ratings and the unbiased Strength ratings to create a "transition" between the two.

Here are this week's ratings, and the two components used to make them. As you can see, Auburn is now #1; the Tigers moved up to #2 in the Revised rankings, but they're a clear #1 in Strength. Baylor is a narrow #1 in the Revised ratings but is #3 in Strength, a full 9 points behind Auburn.

Some teams are ranked very differently between the two systems; normally this is because they haven't lived up to—or have surpassed—our pre-season expectations, and the weekly updates didn't fully capture the necessary revision. For teams with 4 or 5 games, it's possible their unbiased Strength rating doesn't reflect their quality properly, but those cases should be declining.

Pre-season #1 Florida State is one example of a ranking disparity. Even though they have fallen to #6 in our Revised rankings, they are just #23 in Strength. Hence, they are #13 in the transitional week. We wondered last week which ranking would prevail, and though their Strength increased this week it didn't improve very much.

LW	Rank	Team	rec	Revised	Strength
9	1	Auburn	5-0	2	1
1	2	Baylor	5-0	1	3
7	3	Oklahoma	4-1	8	2
5	4	Mississippi	5-0	4	5
3	5	Alabama	4-1	3	7
16	6	TCU	4-0	15	4
17	7	Mississippi St	5-0	9	6
14	8	Ohio State	4-1	7	10
2	9	UCLA	4-1	5	11
8	10	Texas A&M	5-1	13	8
10	11	Georgia	4-1	12	9
19	12	Clemson	3-2	10	13
6	13	Florida St	5-0	6	23
20	14	Arkansas	3-2	19	12
12	15	Michigan St	4-1	16	17
22	16	Utah	4-1	14	20
4	17	Oregon	4-1	11	21
23	18	Notre Dame	5-0	20	15
15	19	LSU	4-2	23	16
27	20	Nebraska	5-1	24	18
36	21	Kansas St	4-1	30	14
18	22	Stanford	3-2	17	26
11	23	Southern Cal	3-2	18	30
26	24	Florida	3-1	28	22
25	25	Missouri	4-1	22	28
40	26	Louisville	5-1	31	25
24	27	Wisconsin	3-2	25	29
42	28	Tennessee	2-3	42	19
48	29	Memphis	3-2	35	24
33	30	Marshall	5-0	26	31
30	31	Arizona	5-0	21	40
29	32	West Virginia	3-2	33	27
28	33	Oklahoma St	4-1	27	36
13	34	BYU	4-1	29	35
21	35	Maryland	4-2	32	39
31	36	South Carolina	3-3	36	37
49	37	Virginia Tech	4-2	39	32
38	38	Virginia	4-2	43	34
46	39	Arizona St	4-1	34	44
39	40	Minnesota	4-1	40	42
32	41	Texas	2-3	37	43
53	42	Kentucky	4-1	50	38
34	43	East Carolina	4-1	52	41
51	44	California	4-1	51	45
50	45	Northwestern	3-2	44	48
47	46	Indiana	3-2	38	52
45	47	Duke	4-1	46	49
35	48	Washington St	2-4	45	54
41	49	Washington	4-1	41	59
85	50	Louisiana Tech	3-3	69	33
59	51	Temple	3-1	59	46
56	52	Georgia Tech	5-0	54	50
44	53	Miami FL	3-3	53	53
54	54	Iowa	4-1	55	58
70	55	Pittsburgh	3-3	65	47
57	56	Boise St	4-2	56	61
79	57	Utah St	3-2	58	55
52	58	Central Florida	2-2	48	70
64	59	Boston College	3-2	61	60
55	60	Syracuse	2-3	67	51
63	61	Michigan	2-4	60	63
71	62	Penn State	4-1	68	56
43	63	Oregon St	4-1	47	80
61	64	Colorado St	4-1	57	66
67	65	Iowa St	1-4	64	62
65	66	Rutgers	5-1	62	65
37	67	Houston	2-3	49	87
60	68	Nevada	3-2	63	69
62	69	Cincinnati	2-2	70	67
81	70	Georgia Southern	4-2	86	57
72	71	North Carolina St	4-2	77	68
58	72	North Carolina	2-3	66	83
73	73	Navy	2-4	76	72
68	74	Northern Illinois	4-1	74	77
75	75	Toledo	4-2	78	74
76	76	North Texas	2-3	80	73
69	77	Texas Tech	2-3	73	81
78	78	W. Kentucky	2-3	83	71
96	79	Arkansas St	3-2	92	64
77	80	Colorado	2-4	72	89
97	81	Purdue	3-3	85	76
88	82	Air Force	4-1	81	82
87	83	Rice	2-3	82	85
80	84	Fresno St	3-3	71	92
86	85	Akron	3-2	89	78
101	86	South Alabama	3-2	88	79
83	87	MTSU	4-2	87	84
66	88	UTSA	1-4	79	91
92	89	San Jose St	2-3	84	90
111	90	UAB	3-2	104	75
74	91	San Diego St	2-3	75	100
118	92	FIU	3-3	102	86
84	93	Illinois	3-3	91	93
94	94	Vanderbilt	1-5	90	95
105	95	Western Mich.	2-3	101	88
91	96	Hawaii	1-4	97	94
107	97	Central Michigan	3-3	96	96
93	98	Wake Forest	2-4	95	101
98	99	Kansas	2-3	93	103
89	100	Ohio U.	3-3	100	99
109	101	Army	2-3	108	97
100	102	Wyoming	3-2	98	102
90	103	Bowling Green	4-2	94	110
104	104	Ball St	1-4	109	98
82	105	Florida Atlantic	2-4	99	107
108	106	Buffalo	3-3	107	104
106	107	South Florida	2-3	106	109
102	108	Texas St.	3-2	111	106
95	109	LA-Lafayette	2-3	105	112
103	110	Tulane	1-4	103	114
110	111	LA-Monroe	3-2	113	108
119	112	New Mexico	2-3	110	115
99	113	Old Dominion	3-3	112	117
116	114	Miami OH	1-5	117	111
113	115	Connecticut	1-4	114	118
122	116	Southern Miss	2-4	119	113
112	117	UTEP	2-3	124	105
120	118	Kent St	0-5	116	119
115	119	Tulsa	1-4	115	123
117	120	Appalachian St	1-4	121	116
121	121	Massachusetts	0-6	120	120
124	122	Idaho	0-5	125	122
125	123	SMU	0-5	123	125
126	124	Georgia St	1-4	126	124
127	125	New Mexico St	2-4	127	121
114	126	UNLV	1-5	118	127
123	127	Troy	0-5	122	126
128	128	Eastern Michigan	1-4	128	128

Washington was in our pre-season top 25 and their performance has dropped them to #41 Revised, but they're just #59 in Strength, still 10 spots lower than this week's #49. Louisiana Tech has been going the other direction, rising to #69, up from #85 last week, and #33 in Strength. The latter seems a bit high for a team that lost to Northwestern State and so it may be a case where six weeks isn't enough for a good judgement from the unbiased Strength ratings.

Central Florida has played only four games, so their #70 Strength rating might be underestimating them; in the Revised rankings they haven't moved much from their pre-season #43.

Oregon State, on the other hand, was ranked too high at #32 to start the season, and though they've dropped to #47, Strength says they should be #80. This week the transitional rankings have them at #63. Houston is perhaps the worst case, as they started at #16 and have falled to #49 but rank 87th in Strength, still 20 spots lower than this week's transitional ranking.

Georgia Southern has been rising but perhaps not fast enough to capture their true quality, as they're still 13 spots higher in Strength than their transitional ranking of #70. #72 North Carolina, however, hasn't fallen enough to match their #83 Strength rating.

Arkansas State and UAB are both still 15 spots lower than their Strength ratings. The Red Wolves are #79 and the Blazers #90.

UTEP is seemingly underrated, too, but their case is unusual; they were destroyed 55-3 by Louisiana Tech and dropped from #112 to #124. But since the Bulldogs are so heavily underrated, the Miners were penalized too much; they should be #105 according to Strength. But sometimes teams are "re-evaluated" in bunches by power ratings, and since Louisiana Tech seems a bit high at #33 maybe UTEP's #105 Strength rating won't hold, either. The Miners are 2-3 so far in 2014.