Once again, it's time to look at which teams control their destiny to the College Football Playoff. After week 7 just six teams are left undefeated, five of them Power Five or equivalent teams. 22 more Power Five teams have just 1 loss, and 15 of them control their destiny toward winning their conference.
Level One: Undefeated Power Five conference teams. If any of these teams win out, they get a Playoff spot.
- Baylor (6-0; wins Big Twelve)
- Florida State (6-0; wins ACC)
- Mississippi (6-0; wins SEC)
- Mississippi State (6-0; wins SEC)
- Notre Dame (6-0)
Note that two pairs of teams (FSU and Notre Dame, Mississippi and Mississippi State) play each other, meaning that there will be at least one slot open for a 1-loss team—assuming Marshall doesn't slip in (see Level 3).
Level Two: Power Conference teams with 1 loss. These teams are in line behind the undefeated teams, but the first list is made up of those who are guaranteed to win their conference if they win out, giving them an excellent Playoff shot:
- Arizona State (4-1; leads UCLA in Pac-12 South)
- Duke (5-1; leads Miami in ACC Coastal)
- Georgia (5-1; leads SEC East)
- Iowa (5-1; tied for Big Ten West lead)
- Kansas State (4-1; undefeated in Big Twelve)
- Kentucky (5-1; leads Florida in SEC East)
- Michigan State (5-1; leads Big Ten East)
- Minnesota (5-1; tied for Big Ten West lead)
- Nebraska (5-1; lost to Michigan State from Big Ten East)
- Ohio State (4-1; unbeaten in Big Ten East)
- Oklahoma St (5-1; undefeated in Big Twelve)
- Oregon (5-1; tied for Pac-12 North lead)
- Oregon State (4-1; lost to USC from Pac-12 South)
- Rutgers (5-1; leads Penn State in Big Ten East)
- Utah (4-1; lost to Washington State from Pac-12 North)
Arizona State, Kentucky, and Rutgers moved from Level 2B to the bracket above this week, as losses by UCLA, Florida, and Penn State gave them control over winning their division and therefore their conference.
Level 2B: These Power Five 1-loss teams need help to win their conference. This group changed the most from last week, as three teams moved up into Level 2, and two dropped to Level 4 by losing, and four more teams moved in by suffering their first loss.
- Arizona (5-1; needs USC to lose once)
- Georgia Tech (5-1; needs Duke to lose once)
- Oklahoma (5-1; needs TCU to lose once to win Big 12 outright)
- Washington (5-1; needs Stanford to lose once)
- Alabama (5-1; needs Mississippi to lose twice)
- Auburn (5-1; needs Mississippi State to lose twice)
- TCU (4-1; needs Baylor to lose twice to win Big 12 outright)
Oklahoma's situation improved from needing TCU to lose twice to needing the Horned Frogs to lose once more.
Level Three - Undefeated non-Power Five teams. Destiny Control is high in terms of their finish, but not in terms of how the Committee will perceive them. Marshall is the only one left here.
- Marshall (6-0)
Level Four - 2-loss Power Conference teams. These teams need help outside their conference and usually inside the conference. We divide these into the few that still control their destiny toward winning their conference, and those that need help. The top group dwindled to three teams from last week's five:
- Boston College (4-2; lost to MW Colorado State and ACC Coastal Pitt)
- Stanford (4-2; lost to Pac-12 South USC and Ind. Notre Dame)
- Virginia (4-2; lost to Pac-12 UCLA and Ind. BYU, both close games)
Level 4B: This group—2-loss teams that need help to win their conference—may grow for the next several weeks, until eventually most of them lose or find their hopes of getting to the championship game gone.
- Florida (3-2; needs Kentucky to lose once)
- Missouri (4-2; needs Georgia to lose once)
- USC (4-2; needs ASU to lose once)
- Virginia Tech (4-2; needs Georgia Tech to lose once)
- West Virginia (4-2; needs Oklahoma to lose once)
- Wisconsin (4-2; needs Northwestern to lose once)
- California (4-2; needs Washington to lose twice)
- Clemson (4-2; needs FSU to lose twice)
- Maryland (4-2; needs Ohio State to lose twice)
- Louisville (5-2; needs Clemson to lose twice, FSU once)
- UCLA (4-2; needs Utah to lose twice, Arizona State once)
- Penn State (4-2; needs Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan to lose once each)
- LSU (5-2; needs Mississippi State to lose three times, Auburn twice, Ole Miss once)
- Texas A&M (5-2; needs Mississippi State and Ole Miss to lose three times each)
Level Five - 1-loss teams from non-Power Five conferences; these teams have almost no Playoff hope but you never know. This group took a hit last week losing Air Force, BYU, and Northern Illinois:
- East Carolina (5-1; lost to South Carolina, controls destiny to win American Athletic)
- Temple (4-1; lost to Navy, controls destiny in American Athletic)
- Colorado State (5-1; needs Boise State to lose once in MW)
That's a total of 47 teams still alive, down 8 from last week. Last week 9 teams had "full" destiny control, and now only 5 do with 15 main contenders to move in if those teams slip. .
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