Every week the pundits are submitting a new slate of four teams in their playoff projections (we do it too). Some places use a "If the playoffs were held today" approach, others try to look ahead to see who is most likely to be there at the end of the year.
Both of these approaches are unsatisfying to fans, however. Teams that aren't in the top 10 are rarely going to be on either list, because
- A) they haven't proven enough to be chosen "today", and
- b) they aren't considered good enough to run the table to be Playoff-bound at the end of the year.
Arizona is a good case. They're undefeated, but no one thinks they're going to finish that way. They wouldn't be chosen today just because of one good win over Oregon, and after 3 or 4 losses they wouldn't be in the Playoff at the end of the year. But Arizona fans don't want to hear either argument.
What fans want to know is: assuming their team runs the table, will they be in the Playoff? This is because fans like to look ahead with optimism, and until their team has enough losses to be practically eliminated, see what their chances are for a Playoff spot.
So that's what we'll look at right now. Starting with a list of all the teams that have even a prayer, we'll divide them into the teams that have the best shot based on their current Win-Loss record and within that, the teams that control their destiny, mainly via a path to their conference championship game.
Level One: Level One teams have full control of their destiny. These include only undefeated Power Five conference teams. If any of these teams win out, they get a Playoff spot:
- Arizona (5-0, wins Pac-12)
- Auburn (5-0, wins SEC)
- Baylor (5-0, wins Big 12)
- Florida State (5-0, wins ACC)
- Georgia Tech (5-0, wins ACC)
- Mississippi (5-0, wins SEC)
- Mississippi State (5-0, wins SEC)
- Notre Dame (5-0, would have win over FSU)
- TCU (4-0, wins Big 12)
At the start of the year there was the small chance that six major teams would be undefeated—the Power Five conferences and Notre Dame. With the Big Ten's last undefeated team (Nebraska) losing, there's now a very slim chance of five total undefeated major teams, but since Notre Dame and FSU play, it would have to be Georgia Tech running the table in the ACC. And the Pac-12 is down to just Arizona. Let's face it—any of the teams above who go undefeated are guaranteed a spot, and they all control their destiny. Those nine teams are in the driver's seat for the four Playoff spots; whether they're good enough or not is a separate issue.
Level Two: Power Conference teams with 1 loss. These teams are in line behind the undefeated teams. However, many of them control their destiny in terms of winning their conference, which in almost all cases would mean that they get a Playoff spot. For example, Florida is 3-1 with a loss to Alabama. If the Gators win out they win the SEC East and play in the SEC title game. Winning the SEC with 1 loss = practically guaranteed playoff spot. Yes there still could be 4 undefeated teams with the Georgia Tech/Arizona/Notre Dame scenario. And it's very likely there will be at least 5 teams with 1 or fewer losses, meaning even a 1-loss conference winner could be left out, but for practical purposes the following teams—call them Level 2A—have very good control over their Playoff destiny:
- California (4-1, lost to Pac-12 South Arizona)
- Duke (4-1, lost to Miami but already leads 1-2 Hurricanes in ACC Coastal standings)
- Florida (3-1, lost to SEC West Alabama)
- Georgia (4-1, lost to South Carolina but already leads 2-3 Gamecocks in SEC East standings)
- Iowa (4-1, lost to Big 12 Iowa State)
- Kansas State (4-1, lost to Auburn in close game)
- Louisville (5-1, lost to ACC Coastal Virginia)
- Michigan State (4-1, lost to Oregon)
- Minnesota (4-1, lost to TCU)
- Missouri (4-1, lost to Indiana)
- Nebraska (5-1, lost to Big Ten East Michigan State)
- Ohio State (4-1, lost to Virginia Tech)
- Oklahoma State (4-1, lost to FSU in close game)
- Oregon (4-1, lost to Pac-12 South Arizona)
- Oregon State (4-1, lost to Pac-12 South USC)
- Penn State (4-1, lost to Big Ten West Northwestern)
- Utah (4-1, lost to Pac-12 North Washington State)
Level 2B: These Power Five 1-loss teams need help. Even if they win out, the team that beat them might also win out, shutting them out of the conference championship game and therefore likely the Playoff. Alabama is a great case here; the Tide lost to undefeated Mississippi, so to regain control of their destiny they need Mississippi to lose twice (or just once and then win some kind of tiebreaker). These are presented in alphabetical order but teams that need more losses by former opponents are placed lower:
- Arizona State (4-1, needs UCLA to lose once)
- Kentucky (4-1, needs Florida to lose once)
- Rutgers (5-1, needs Penn State to lose once)
- UCLA (4-1, needs Utah to lose once)
- Washington (4-1, needs Stanford to lose once)
- Alabama (4-1, needs Mississippi to lose twice)
- Oklahoma (4-1, needs TCU to lose twice to win Big 12 outright)
- Texas A&M (5-1, needs Mississippi State to lose twice)
Level Three - Undefeated non-Power Five teams. Teams outside the Power Five conferences need to go undefeated, and even then they'll need a lot of carnage among the Power Five teams. As of now the group has been whittled down to only Marshall, who could go 13-0 in Conference USA. They control their destiny to winning that conference but have no control over what other teams do or how they'll be perceived by the Committee even at 13-0.
- Marshall (5-0)
Level Four - 2-loss Power Conference teams. These teams are in rough shape but still have hope, especially after last week's carnage made it more likely that a 2-loss team might be in position to make the Playoff at the end of the season. It's almost required for a 2-loss team to win their conference to be considered, so the split here between the 4A and 4B teams is important. The former still control their conference championship destiny despite having 2 overall losses:
- Boston College (3-2; lost to MW Colorado State and ACC Coastal Pitt)
- Northwestern (3-2; lost to Pac-12 Cal and MAC NIU; undefeated in Big Ten West)
- Stanford (3-2; lost to Pac-12 South USC and Ind. Notre Dame)
- Virginia (4-2; lost to Pac-12 UCLA and Ind. BYU, both close games)
Level 4B: These teams need some level of help to control their conference destiny. Of course other factors, such as losing to a bad team or losing at home also matter, but recovering to win their conference is critical.
- Indiana (3-2, needs Maryland to lose once)
- USC (3-2, needs ASU to lose once)
- West Virginia (3-2, needs Oklahoma to lose once)
- Clemson (3-2, needs FSU to lose twice)
- Maryland (4-2, needs Ohio State to lose twice)
- Virginia Tech (4-2, needs Georgia Tech to lose twice)
- Wisconsin (3-2, needs Northwestern to lose twice)
- Arkansas (3-2, needs Auburn to lose three times)
- LSU (4-2, needs Auburn to lose three times)
- NC State (4-2, needs FSU to lose three times, Clemson twice)
Level Five - 1-loss teams from non-Power Five conferences. Destiny control is the least of these teams' problems. Even if they win their conference, it hardly matters in the grander scheme where these teams have little chance no matter what happens. If the season turns into a complete mess then these teams might be under consideration, but they have almost no control of their Playoff destiny. They need so much help, and so many other teams have to lose multiple times, that we just list them for completeness' sake:
- Brigham Young (4-1, lost to Utah State; no conference)
- East Carolina (4-1, lost to South Carolina, controls destiny to win American Athletic)
- Northern Illinois (4-1, lost to Arkansas, controls destiny to win MAC)
- Temple (4-1, lost to Navy, controls destiny in American Athletic)
- Colorado State (4-1, needs Boise State to lose once in MW)
- Air Force (4-1, needs Wyoming to lose twice in MW)
That's a total of 55 teams still alive, with only 9 really controlling their own Playoff destiny, and 17 more still in good shape. The other 29 need some level of help, anywhere from a single loss to several dozen losses by other teams to clear their path.
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