The biggest weekend of college football so far kicked off with a huge upset as Arizona beat Oregon in Eugene 31-24, flustering the Ducks for the 2nd consecutive year.
Oregon was on the short list of the most-probable College Football Playoff teams, ranking #2 and #3 in the polls and a near-consensus favorite to win the Pac-12. A lot changed with the loss—so how will it affect the Ducks on our College Football Playoff Odds chart?
Taking a look back at Oregon's season so far:
- Oregon was #9 on our pre-season Playoff Odds chart with an 11.6% chance to make the Playoff, due to the fact that we heavily favored UCLA to win the conference.
- They inched up to #8 at 14.2% with their opening win (62-13 over South Dakota)
- The 46-27 win over Michigan State popped the Ducks up to #2 at 56.4% as UCLA was faltering, making Oregon our Pac-12 favorite for the first time
- In week 3 Oregon peaked at 67.5% after beating Wyoming 48-14, but again it was the Bruins' weakness pumping up the Ducks' chances (UCLA beat Texas just 20-17 that weekend)
- Oregon showed their first sign of weakness with the 38-31 win over Washington State, and it showed up in their Playoff odds which dropped to 42.3% although they held the #3 position.
- Last week, UCLA's big win over Arizona State made the Bruins the Pac-12 favorite again, and that pushed Oregon out of the top four, dropping the Ducks to #6 at 26.2% odds.
So entering the Arizona game, Oregon was on the outside looking in but still one of the very top contenders and obviously controlled their own destiny as UCLA was concerned. That control of destiny hasn't disappeared, as Oregon still wins the Pac-12 North, and then the Pac-12 title, if they win out. But the team appears a lot weaker following the loss, so their odds of being able to do that appears to be diminished. In fact, current numbers suggest the Ducks have about a 1.3% chance of winning out.
Helping the Ducks is their earlier win over Michigan State, who is #10 in both polls. That should cushion Oregon's drop, holding them at #9. Though the Playoff Committee doesn't watch the polls, their opinions should align with them fairly well and the win over the Spartans gives the Ducks a better chance to be held in higher esteem and recover from the loss.
Still, we see the Ducks falling to around #20 on our Playoff Odds chart with around a 2.5% chance, mainly due to UCLA being a much bigger Pac-12 favorite now than before. Oregon still has to get past UCLA on the road, Stanford, Utah on the road, and Oregon State on the road, all of which were considered tougher challenges than Arizona at home.
And what about Arizona? Are they a top Playoff contender?
Short answer: Not yet. But they took a big step toward that.
Even at 4-0 Arizona was favored in just 3 of their last 8 games and had just a 0.3% chance of getting to the Playoff. The win over Oregon was huge but they're still expected to lose 3 of their last 7—to USC, UCLA, and Utah. The rest of this weekend's results might change that, but it won't change the fact that the Wildcats still have a tough road ahead.
But beating Oregon took away one of their biggest roadblocks, and should put them firmly in the AP and USA polls (where they were #29 last week, in the "others receiving votes" list). We expect them to be around #14 or #15 come Sunday.
On our Playoff Odds chart, Arizona will probably come in just ahead of Oregon at around 3.0% odds. The win moved them up a lot in our power rating's estimation, but not by enough to favor them in some of the big games remaining. Their odds of going 13-0 are just 0.3%. They control their own destiny, of course, but they still wouldn't be favored in a rematch against Oregon if both reached the Pac-12 championship game.
The Wildcats face USC next week in another big challenge. That game is at home and you can bet the stadium will be rocking; if Arizona can beat the Trojans then they'll be 6-0 and rated high in the polls and by our power ratings. At that point Arizona would be on the short list of Playoff teams—where Oregon was before Thursday's debacle.
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