Week 3 Power Rating: Baylor at #1, Mississippi & Oklahoma replace Georgia, USC in top ten

Note: This is an update to our pre-season rankings, using a Bayesian/ELO adjustment to the ratings before the non-biased Strength power rating becomes reliable.

The race for #1 got settled this weekend as Baylor broke last week's 4-way near-tie by beating Buffalo by slightly more than expected while last week's #1 team, Oregon, didn't crush Wyoming by enough and #4 Alabama "only" beat Southern Miss by 40 points. With #2 Florida State idle, that meant the Bears rose to the top.

Those games weren't significant but more important results happened in the rest of the top ten as Georgia was defeated by South Carolina and USC fell to Boston College in a big upset. Both teams fell out of the top ten and replacing them were Mississippi, who beat UL-Lafayette 56-15, and Oklahoma who beat Tennessee 34-10.

Further down in the top 25 Ohio State made a big comeback from #23 to #14 after blanking Kent State 66-0, while Florida fell an equal number of positions to #24 after needing triple overtime to beat Kentucky.

SportsRatings Week 3 Power Rating Bayesian/ELO update

Last Week	Current Rank	Team	Record	Rating Change
3	1	Baylor	3-0	+0.83
2	2	Florida St	2-0	0.00
1	3	Oregon	3-0	-1.38
5	4	Auburn	2-0	0.00
4	5	Alabama	3-0	-2.38
11	6	Mississippi	3-0	+1.23
10	7	Texas A&M	3-0	-0.89
6	8	BYU	3-0	-2.38
8	9	UCLA	3-0	-1.30
13	10	Oklahoma	3-0	+1.04
7	11	Georgia	1-1	-2.07
12	12	LSU	3-0	-1.35
9	13	Southern Cal	2-1	-4.44
23	14	Ohio State	2-1	+5.14
20	15	Missouri	3-0	+2.50
16	16	Michigan St	1-1	0.00
18	17	Stanford	2-1	+0.16
17	18	Utah	2-0	0.00
14	19	Notre Dame	3-0	-2.66
19	20	Clemson	1-1	0.00
25	21	Mississippi St	3-0	+2.19
27	22	TCU	2-0	+2.52
30	23	Oklahoma St	2-1	+3.64
15	24	Florida	2-0	-2.62
21	25	Wisconsin	1-1	0.00
26	26	West Virginia	2-1	+0.98
32	27	South Carolina	2-1	+2.07
22	28	Arizona	3-0	-1.87
42	29	Nebraska	3-0	+4.69
28	30	Arizona St	3-0	-0.33
35	31	Washington	3-0	+1.35
43	32	Arkansas	2-1	+3.03
29	33	Maryland	2-1	-0.98
31	34	Louisville	2-1	-0.70
36	35	Texas	1-2	+1.30
24	36	Virginia Tech	2-1	-3.81
49	37	Houston	1-2	+2.38
33	38	Indiana	1-1	-2.41
39	39	Oregon St	2-0	0.00
41	40	Kansas St	2-0	0.00
40	41	Boise St	2-1	-0.29
34	42	Pittsburgh	3-0	-2.35
59	43	Duke	3-0	+3.90
53	44	Marshall	3-0	+1.49
55	45	Kentucky	2-1	+2.62
44	46	California	2-0	0.00
48	47	Virginia	2-1	+0.70
56	48	Cincinnati	1-0	+3.07
38	49	Michigan	2-1	-1.75
46	50	North Carolina	2-0	0.00
67	51	Syracuse	2-0	+5.59
50	52	Memphis	1-1	0.00
37	53	Minnesota	2-1	-2.52
52	54	Navy	2-1	-0.23
61	55	Washington St	1-2	+2.52
65	56	East Carolina	2-1	+3.81
51	57	Tennessee	2-1	-1.04
54	58	Northern Illinois	3-0	-0.33
58	59	Miami FL	2-1	+0.89
47	60	Central Florida	0-2	-2.50
45	61	UTSA	1-2	-3.64
62	62	Northwestern	0-2	0.00
63	63	Penn State	3-0	+0.11
69	64	Nevada	2-1	+1.87
60	65	Iowa	2-1	-1.81
74	66	Boston College	2-1	+4.44
57	67	Georgia Tech	3-0	-2.64
71	68	Iowa St	1-2	+1.81
66	69	Colorado St	2-1	-0.14
70	70	San Diego St	1-1	0.00
81	71	North Carolina St	3-0	+4.94
64	72	Texas Tech	2-1	-3.03
78	73	Bowling Green	2-1	+2.41
68	74	Toledo	1-2	-3.07
73	75	Temple	1-1	0.00
77	76	Utah St	2-1	+0.09
86	77	Louisiana Tech	2-1	+4.47
76	78	Rutgers	2-1	-0.11
72	79	Illinois	2-1	-1.35
83	80	Colorado	1-2	+0.33
97	81	Florida Atlantic	1-2	+3.83
88	82	W. Kentucky	1-2	+0.61
82	83	Middle Tennessee St	2-1	-0.61
92	84	Rice	0-2	+0.89
101	85	Tulane	1-2	+3.31
75	86	Fresno St	0-3	-4.69
93	87	Hawaii	0-2	+0.67
91	88	San Jose St	1-1	0.00
85	89	LA-Lafayette	1-2	-1.23
100	90	Wyoming	2-1	+1.38
104	91	Georgia Southern	1-2	+2.64
79	92	North Texas	1-2	-4.48
87	93	Old Dominion	2-1	-2.21
96	94	Akron	1-1	0.00
89	95	UAB	2-1	-2.41
95	96	Arkansas St	1-2	-0.89
98	97	Wake Forest	1-2	-0.09
94	98	South Alabama	1-1	-2.19
84	99	Kansas	1-1	-3.90
80	100	Central Michigan	2-1	-5.59
109	101	LA-Monroe	2-1	+1.35
105	102	Texas St.	1-1	+0.23
90	103	Ball St	1-2	-4.39
107	104	Army	1-1	-0.16
102	105	Ohio U.	1-2	-1.49
112	106	Purdue	1-2	+2.66
99	107	Vanderbilt	1-2	-2.08
106	108	Air Force	2-1	-0.47
110	109	Connecticut	1-2	+0.29
111	110	Buffalo	1-2	-0.83
115	111	UNLV	1-2	+0.33
114	112	Appalachian St	1-1	0.00
116	113	UTEP	2-1	+0.15
108	114	Tulsa	1-2	-3.83
103	115	South Florida	1-2	-4.94
120	116	Western Mich.	1-1	+2.68
117	117	New Mexico	0-2	0.00
118	118	SMU	0-2	0.00
123	119	Massachusetts	0-3	+2.08
113	120	Kent St	0-3	-5.14
122	121	Miami OH	0-3	+1.75
124	122	Southern Miss	1-2	+2.38
121	123	Troy	0-3	-1.44
125	124	FIU	1-2	+2.35
119	125	Idaho	0-2	-2.68
126	126	Georgia St	1-2	+0.47
128	127	Eastern Michigan	1-2	+2.21
127	128	New Mexico St	2-1	-0.15

Like Ohio State, Nebraska redeemed itself somewhat after a poor week 2, jumping from #42 to #29 after crushing Fresno State 55-19. But not every Big Ten team bounced back this week; Minnesota was manhandled by TCU 30-7 and fell 16 spots to #53, and Michigan was hardly impressive in beating Miami of Ohio 34-10. The Wolverines fall another 11 spots to #49.

Arkansas beat Texas Tech 49-28 and moved up 11 to #32. Virginia Tech fell 12 spots to #36 after being upset by East Carolina, while Houston also reversed their trajectory from previous weeks, up 12 to #37 after losing at #8 BYU 33-25. Kentucky also moved up despite losing, as they took Florida to triple overtime in the Swamp; the Wildcats jumped from #55 to #45.

Duke jumped 16 to #43 after demolishing Kansas 41-3, and Syracuse almost mirrored that by moving from #67 to #51 after beating Central Michigan 40-3. A couple of promising "Group of Five" conference members took a dive: Central Florida lost to Missouri 38-10 and fell 13 spots to #60, while Texas-San Antonio dropped 16 after losing big at Oklahoma State, 43-13.

Georgia Tech lost all of its huge lead over Georgia Southern but recovered to win at the end, 42-38. But the Yellow Jackets dropped 10 to #67, while the Eagles were up 13 to #91. Meanwhile Tech's ACC teammate North Carolina State rose 10 spots to #71 after beating South Florida 49-17.

Florida Atlantic recovered all of the ground they lost in their awful debut vs. Nebraska, rising 16 to #81 for trouncing Tulsa 50-21. Tulane, who lost to Tulsa in overtime in week 1, rebounded with a strong win over Southeastern Louisiana, 35-20.

Fresno State started at #61 in our pre-season rankings but three straight terrible losses to Power Five conference foes have them at #86, down another ten spots after their loss to the Cornhuskers. Wyoming lost almost as badly to Oregon but they rise ten to #90. North Texas ran into a hot Louisiana Tech and lost 42-21; they fall 13 spots to #92.

The MAC had some bad times this week, even relative to expectations. Central Michigan dropped more than any other team, falling from #80 to #100 after losing 40-3 to Syracuse. And Ball State lost to Indiana State 27-20; the Cardinals fall 13 spots to #103.

Kansas was another big loser, dropping 15 to #99 after the Duke blowout loss. South Florida also lost big to an ACC team (NC State) and dropped from #103 to #115.