Week 2 Power Rating: Oregon, FSU, Baylor, Alabama in 4-way logjam at top

Note: This is another update to our pre-season rankings, using a Bayesian/ELO adjustment to the ratings before the non-biased Strength power rating becomes usable.

Though Florida State started with a big lead in our pre-season rankings it only took two weeks for a new number one to overtake the Seminoles. Due to FSU's disappointing play and Oregon's big 46-27 victory over Michigan State, the Ducks are our new #1 team—but it's very tight.

Oregon's lead is just 6/100 of a point, and they're only 0.25 ahead of #4 Alabama. Here is the actual rating breakdown among the top four teams:

1. Oregon (70.28)
2. Florida State (70.22)
3. Baylor (70.12)
4. Alabama (70.03)

If Alabama had been allowed to finish out the final minutes of their 41-0 win over Florida Atlantic, they might be sitting at #1 right now.

Auburn is a relatively distant #5, while BYU jumps to #6 after their beatdown of Texas. The Pac-12 picture changed a lot with Oregon's ascendance and UCLA's continued struggles, and the Bruins fall to #8, still one spot ahead of USC whose win over Stanford wasn't far off expectations. Texas A&M edged up to complete the top 10.

Notre Dame is the big mover within the top 25 (from #23 to #14), and their 31-0 win knocked Michigan out of the ballpark from 25 to 38. Michigan State and Stanford suffered little for their losses, but Ohio State fell from #14 to #23; they are still a spot ahead of the team that beat them 35-21 at home due to the weight that the pre-season ratings retain. Virginia Tech jumps 15 spots to #24 and the fact that they beat the Buckeyes suggests they have further to rise, or OSU further to fall.

Clemson and Missouri rise into the top 25 this week too, while Maryland fell out due to their close call with South Florida and Texas fell out due to their 41-7 loss to BYU. The Longhorns were a hopeful #24 last week but a shamed #36 this week.

Last Week	Current Rank	Team	Record	Rating Change
4	1	Oregon	2-0	+1.35
1	2	Florida St	2-0	-5.69
5	3	Baylor	2-0	+1.58
2	4	Alabama	2-0	-0.02
6	5	Auburn	2-0	+1.46
10	6	BYU	2-0	+5.28
7	7	Georgia	1-0	0.00
3	8	UCLA	2-0	-3.32
8	9	Southern Cal	2-0	+0.68
11	10	Texas A&M	2-0	+4.42
9	11	Mississippi	2-0	+1.98
15	12	LSU	2-0	+4.02
16	13	Oklahoma	2-0	+3.73
23	14	Notre Dame	2-0	+4.86
21	15	Florida	1-0	+2.78
12	16	Michigan St	1-1	-1.35
20	17	Utah	2-0	+2.47
13	18	Stanford	1-1	-0.68
36	19	Clemson	1-1	+5.82
28	20	Missouri	2-0	+3.25
18	21	Wisconsin	1-1	-1.12
19	22	Arizona	2-0	-0.38
14	23	Ohio State	1-1	-4.40
39	24	Virginia Tech	2-0	+4.4
17	25	Mississippi St	2-0	-3.03
47	26	West Virginia	1-1	+6.94
26	27	TCU	1-0	0.00
33	28	Arizona St	2-0	+1.65
22	29	Maryland	1-1	-3.37
27	30	Oklahoma St	1-1	-1.13
41	31	Louisville	2-0	+2.9
29	32	South Carolina	1-1	-0.85
32	33	Indiana	1-0	0.00
37	34	Pittsburgh	2-0	+0.22
30	35	Washington	2-0	-2.25
24	36	Texas	1-1	-5.28
34	37	Minnesota	2-0	-2.01
25	38	Michigan	1-1	-4.86
38	39	Oregon St	2-0	-1.00
43	40	Boise St	1-1	+0.51
42	41	Kansas St	2-0	-0.31
31	42	Nebraska	2-0	-2.95
59	43	Arkansas	1-1	+3.86
50	44	California	2-0	+1.1
46	45	UTSA	1-1	+0.38
40	46	North Carolina	2-0	-2.03
49	47	Central Florida	0-1	0.00
56	48	Virginia	1-1	+1.24
35	49	Houston	1-1	-4.13
62	50	Memphis	1-1	+3.32
45	51	Tennessee	2-0	-1.13
52	52	Navy	1-1	+0.43
44	53	Marshall	2-0	-1.59
63	54	Northern Illinois	2-0	+2.76
55	55	Kentucky	2-0	-0.52
60	56	Cincinnati	0-0	0.00
64	57	Georgia Tech	2-0	+1.32
51	58	Miami FL	1-1	-2.00
57	59	Duke	2-0	-1.01
48	60	Iowa	2-0	-2.88
54	61	Washington St	0-2	-2.49
53	62	Northwestern	0-2	-2.76
66	63	Penn State	2-0	+0.48
58	64	Texas Tech	2-0	-2.65
69	65	East Carolina	1-1	+0.85
67	66	Colorado St	1-1	-0.51
68	67	Syracuse	1-0	0.00
61	68	Toledo	1-1	-3.25
74	69	Nevada	2-0	+2.49
78	70	San Diego St	1-1	+2.03
73	71	Iowa St	0-2	+0.31
75	72	Illinois	2-0	+0.03
76	73	Temple	1-1	-0.43
77	74	Boston College	1-1	-0.22
71	75	Fresno St	0-2	-2.47
65	76	Rutgers	2-0	-5.44
72	77	Utah St	1-1	-2.54
79	78	Bowling Green	1-1	-0.49
96	79	North Texas	1-1	+4.82
88	80	Central Michigan	2-0	+2.92
84	81	North Carolina St	2-0	+1.22
86	82	Middle Tennessee St	1-1	+2.01
81	83	Colorado	1-1	-2.40
80	84	Kansas	1-0	-3.81
70	85	LA-Lafayette	1-1	-7.95
114	86	Louisiana Tech	1-1	+7.95
82	87	Old Dominion	1-1	-1.22
85	88	W. Kentucky	1-1	-0.03
100	89	UAB	1-1	+3.03
101	90	Ball St	1-1	+2.88
83	91	San Jose St	1-1	-1.46
94	92	Rice	0-1	0.00
91	93	Hawaii	0-2	+1
95	94	South Alabama	1-0	+1.14
99	95	Arkansas St	1-1	+1.13
92	96	Akron	1-1	-0.48
97	97	Florida Atlantic	0-2	+0.02
87	98	Wake Forest	1-1	-2.06
89	99	Vanderbilt	0-2	-1.98
98	100	Wyoming	2-0	-0.31
93	101	Tulane	0-2	-1.32
103	102	Ohio U.	1-1	+0.52
113	103	South Florida	1-1	+3.37
116	104	Georgia Southern	1-1	+5.31
105	105	Texas St.	1-0	0.00
108	106	Air Force	1-1	+0.31
110	107	Army	1-0	+0.8
90	108	Tulsa	1-1	-3.73
104	109	LA-Monroe	2-0	-0.71
107	110	Connecticut	1-1	-1.19
109	111	Buffalo	1-1	-0.80
106	112	Purdue	1-1	-2.92
111	113	Kent St	0-2	-1.14
119	114	Appalachian St	1-1	+4.34
102	115	UNLV	1-1	-4.36
117	116	UTEP	1-1	+2.65
115	117	New Mexico	0-2	-1.65
112	118	SMU	0-2	-4.82
120	119	Idaho	0-1	+0.71
118	120	Western Mich.	0-1	0.00
122	121	Troy	0-2	+1.01
121	122	Miami OH	0-2	-1.29
125	123	Massachusetts	1-1	+2.4
123	124	Southern Miss	1-1	-1.53
124	125	FIU	1-1	+0.37
126	126	Georgia St	1-1	-1.86
128	127	New Mexico St	2-0	+1.86
127	128	Eastern Michigan	1-1	-2.78

Playing FCS teams can carry a risk or a reward. West Virginia beat Towson 54-0 and made another big move, up 21 to #26 and now from #57 pre-season they are almost in the top 25. Louisville gained another 10 spots to #31 after beating Murray State 66-21 while Nebraska fell from 31 to 42 after barely beating McNeese State at home. Arkansas' 73-7 beatdown of Nicholls State moved them from #59 to #43.

Meeting in the middle: Houston started the year at #16, Memphis at #70. After just two games only 1 spot separates the Cougars and the Tigers. Houston fell a further 14 spots despite crushing Grambling 47-0, and Memphis rose 12 spots after losing to UCLA 42-35. In power ratings the old adage is true, it's not whether you win or lose it's how you play the game (and how tough the opposition was).

More woe to the Big Ten: Iowa falls 12 spots to #60 after beating Ball State 17-13; Northwestern drops 9 to #62 after losing to Northern Illinois; and Rutgers drops 11 after beating Howard 38-25.

How bad is SMU? The Mustangs lost to North Texas 43-6, who last week lost to Texas 38-7, who this week lost to BYU 41-7. SMU falls to #118 while the Mean Green rise 17 places to #79.

Two more power rating quirks: when using biased systems (those that retain pre-season ratings as a starting point) you get some oddities, and this week we see three. Ohio State ended up exactly one spot above Virginia Tech; that Louisiana-Lafayette (down 15 to #85) is still a spot ahead of the Louisiana Tech (up 18 spots) team that beat them 48-20; and that New Mexico State (#127) remains a spot below Georgia State after beating them on the road. You don't want to overweight the results of just two games, but in these cases you just wish the numbers had flipped the two teams in question. In non-biased systems these things wouldn't happen unless there's a really good reason; here there is none.

UAB is proving to be a much better team than we expected, and they've jumped from #114 to #100 to this week's #89. Last week Ball State fell from #93 to #101 after a win, but regained all of that and more from a close loss to Iowa this week. Georgia Southern's 83-point performance took them from #116 to #104, while Tulsa's 52-7 loss to Oklahoma dumped them from #90 to #108. UNLV was another big loser, falling from #102 to #115 after beating Northern Colorado by a point; the Rebels started the year as our #90 team.