Not much happened in week 5, but on our College Football Playoff Odds chart, two teams were replaced in the Top 4.
Florida State and Oklahoma held down the top two spots again, and remained the only teams firmly above 50% in odds to make the 4-team Playoff. UCLA's big 62-27 win over Arizona State convinced our power ratings that they should be the Pac-12 favorite again, and that pushed the Bruins to the #3 spot at just over 50% while dumping idle Oregon to #6. Alabama was idle, too, but took over the SEC favorite spot from Georgia which launched the Tide up to #4. Baylor's odds held steady at around 1 in 3 but the Bears were pushed to #5.
All of the top 6 teams face challenges in the coming weeks.
- Florida State has held the top spot all year but their odds to go 13-0 fell yet again, to 18%. The Seminoles keep winning but their odds to win out go down—that's not supposed to happen. After allowing 41 points to North Carolina State, FSU is down to #6 in our updated rankings, and it could get worse as we begin to transition to using our All-Division Strength power rating, where the 'Noles are only #27! Worse, they lose their #1 ranking in the USA poll, which could spell trouble when the CFP Committee's rankings come out. Next up is Wake Forest, then Syracuse, which shouldn't be difficult but any problems will reinforce that FSU is a shadow of last year's team. It's looking more and more like anything short of 13-0 will not get the Seminoles in the Playoff.
- Oklahoma and Baylor face a growing threat: TCU. Oklahoma faces the Horned Frogs on the road next week, then Baylor hosts TCU the following week. For the Sooners, it's a game that might be tougher than facing Baylor in Norman. Right now Oklahoma is a slight road favorite and Baylor—still our #1 power rated team—is a 12-point favorite in Waco. But the next two weeks can shake up the Big Twelve race and potentially add a third team into the mix. This week TCU leaps from #20 to #11 after shutting out SMU 56-0. Their schedule so far has been easy and they'll be thrown into the fire, but we can't rule out the possibility that they're for real.
- UCLA and Oregon face off in L.A. in two weeks, and that should resolve a lot of the flip-flopping that's been going on between the teams. They're also projected to meet for a rematch in the Pac-12 title game, and any one-sided result on October 11 could change that. In the week before, UCLA hosts a tough Utah team, while Oregon hosts Arizona this Thursday.
- Alabama got some help in their bye week from the coaches, who put the Tide #1 which suggests the ex-coach-heavy Committee might also smile upon them. But they have to take care of business, which next week includes traveling to Mississippi for a game in which we favor the Rebels by a hair (that's where the loss in Alabama's 11-1 straight-up projection comes from). Winning that game would really put the Tide in the driver's seat. This week it was Georgia's weakness that boosted Alabama to the #4 spot, a placing they might hold even with a close loss next week. Their cumulative projection of 2.4 losses shows how dangerous the SEC is.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff Odds chart, week 5 (9/28/2014)
Last week |
This Week |
Team |
Playoff |
% Change +/- |
9/28 Rec |
Projected Record | Odds to win out |
|
|||
| Straight up | Cumulative | ||||||||||
| W | L | W | L | ||||||||
| 1 | 1 | Florida St | 72.9 | +1.7 | 4-0 | 12 | 0 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 18.3% | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2 | Oklahoma | 60.5 | +2.5 | 4-0 | 12 | 0 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 13.0% | 3.5 |
| 5 | 3 | UCLA | 50.5 | +26.4 | 4-0 | 12 | 0 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 11.0% | 8.5 |
| 9 | 4 | Alabama | 41.1 | +19.9 | 4-0 | 11 | 1 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 2.5% | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | Baylor | 34.1 | 0.0 | 4-0 | 11 | 1 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 16.4% | 6.5 |
| 3 | 6 | Oregon | 26.2 | -16.1 | 4-0 | 11 | 1 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 3.8% | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | Marshall | 13.8 | -0.2 | 4-0 | 12 | 0 | 11.2 | 0.8 | 34.1% | 30 |
| 11 | 8 | Brigham Young | 13.1 | +0.4 | 4-0 | 12 | 0 | 11.1 | 0.9 | 38.2% | 18.5 |
| 13 | 9 | Auburn | 8.7 | +1.2 | 4-0 | 9 | 3 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.5% | 5 |
| 14 | 10 | Notre Dame | 8.5 | +1.2 | 4-0 | 10 | 2 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.3% | 8.5 |
| 20 | 11 | TCU | 8.2 | +6.3 | 3-0 | 10 | 2 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.6% | 25 |
| 12 | 12 | Mississippi | 8.0 | +0.4 | 4-0 | 11 | 1 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.2% | 11 |
| 15 | 13 | Michigan St | 7.9 | +0.9 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 7.0% | 10 |
| 7 | 14 | Georgia | 6.4 | -15.8 | 3-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 3.6% | 12.5 |
| 6 | 15 | Wisconsin | 6.1 | -17.6 | 3-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 3.3% | 16.5 |
| -- | 16 | Maryland | 6.0 | +5.8 | 4-1 | 10 | 2 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 2.8% | 38 |
| 16 | 17 | Clemson | 5.6 | 0.0 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 16.3% | 28 |
| 8 | 18 | Duke | 5.2 | -16.3 | 4-1 | 11 | 1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 0.7% | 36.5 |
| 17 | 19 | Texas A&M | 5.2 | -0.2 | 5-0 | 10 | 2 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 1.0% | 6.5 |
| 18 | 20 | Northern Illinois | 2.7 | -0.1 | 3-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 10.6% | -- |
| 19 | 21 | East Carolina | 2.6 | -0.1 | 3-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 17.4% | 21.5 |
| 21 | 22 | Nebraska | 2.2 | +0.4 | 5-0 | 10 | 2 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 0.6% | 18 |
| 22 | 23 | Ohio State | 1.5 | +0.3 | 3-1 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 3.7% | 19 |
| 24 | 24 | Mississippi St | 1.1 | +0.3 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.2% | 13 |
| 25 | 25 | Southern Cal | 0.7 | +0.3 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.3% | 18 |
Dropped out: #23 Utah; Others receiving "votes": Missouri (4-1), Stanford (3-1), LSU (4-1), Minnesota (4-1), Arizona (4-0), Oklahoma State (3-1), Colorado State (3-1), Louisville (2-1), Utah (3-1), Georgia Tech (4-0)
Marshall and BYU, the top hopes outside the Power Five, both slide up three spots but their own odds barely budged at 13 or 14%. Marshall isn't yet in either top 25, but BYU did well for a bye week in moving up two spots in both polls (to #18 and #19). Until these teams approach the top ten in the polls they're pretty much stuck where they are; this week some Power Five teams drop below them, but others will jump them in the following weeks unless the Herd and Cougars find poll support. Neither is close to showing as a top five team in our power ratings, though BYU may have that potential. Notre Dame is also independent but plays a Power Five schedule and they jump into the top 10 partly due to FSU's weakness; the odds of an Irish upset win in Tallahassee are growing (slowly) each week. They're still projected to lose 2 or 3 games at this point.
SEC West teams Auburn, Mississippi, and Mississippi State all rose slightly with wins this week, but Georgia's 45-42 escape vs. Tennessee is what shook up the conference. Of those teams only Auburn faces the Bulldogs in the regular season, but Georgia is projected to make the SEC title game (a notion that was confirmed by South Carolina's loss to Missouri) and could face the others there. The Bulldogs have at least partial home-field advantage for playing that game in Atlanta, but they're no longer favored to beat Alabama there if they face the Tide. Texas A&M is in the same boat as the other SEC West teams but the Aggies lost some ground by barely escaping Arkansas in overtime. They face Mississippi State next week.
The Big Ten's outlook is as bleak as ever this week after Wisconsin failed to impress against South Florida, winning just 27-10. That put Michigan State back as Big Ten favorite, and the Spartans are looking like an offensive juggernaut after blasting Wyoming worse than Oregon did. The Badgers dropped from #6 to #15, while the Spartans' bump was small since they face a growing regular-season threat from Maryland, the sole new entry on the chart at #16. Nebraska and Ohio State took care of business but with the Cornhuskers the conference's only undefeated team it's looking more and more like the Big Ten winner will have two losses and be well outside the top four.
The ACC isn't well-positioned to have a representative if FSU falters. Duke had the potential to squeak by several opponents and go 12-0, but Miami ruined that possibility. The Blue Devils are still narrow favorites in every game left but their odds of going 12-1—i.e. beating FSU—are just 0.7% and they fall from #8 last week to #18 this week. Clemson already has 2 losses and another one will drop them to 0% odds, but they're a favorite in every remaining game, with a 16% chance to achieve that. They'd also need FSU to lose twice in-conference to make the ACC title game, probably the harder part of their quest.
At #20 Northern Illinois and #21 East Carolina both have a loss, making them Group of Five longshots, but winning out might put them on the map. Their odds are fairly good, at 11% and 17% respectively, but they both have an uphill battle with their weak schedules in terms of recognition. The Pirates are in the polls, which could help if and when they move up, but the Huskies don't have a single vote and could be stuck at the bottom even if they win out.
With Utah's loss to Washington State, USC is the only Pac-12 team on the map other than UCLA and Oregon. The Trojans already have a loss but if they avoid another, they have late-season showdowns with UCLA and Notre Dame that could launch them into the discussion late. Until then don't expect too much change as we favor them in every game up to that point.
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