SportsRatings: College Football

15 teams that control their Playoff destiny, 53 more that need help

After week 5, 65 teams are still hopeful of a Playoff bid—some with a good shot, others with hardly a prayer even if they win out. Our College Football Playoff Odds chart tells who is the most likely to get to the Playoff given their current status, their quality, and future schedule.

But many undefeated teams don't show up on the chart because their odds of finishing with a good record are poor. Fans, however, like to imagine their team winning out the rest of the way so here, we divide teams into their chance for getting to the Playoff if they win out.

68 teams still have a chance for one of the four slots, with odds ranging from good to nearly zero, even if they win out.

Tier One: Undefeated Power Five conference teams (15): these teams are guaranteed a spot if they win out, plain and simple. What if there are more than four? There won't be. At most five teams can get through conference play undefeated, and Notre Dame makes six. Even four undefeated major-conference teams would be a historic high, especially in the conference championship era. These are the only teams that control their destiny.

• Alabama (4-0)
• Arizona (4-0)
• Auburn (4-0)
• Baylor (4-0)
• Florida St (4-0)
• Georgia Tech (4-0)
• Mississippi (4-0)
• Mississippi St (4-0)
• Nebraska (5-0)
• Notre Dame (4-0)
• Oklahoma (4-0)
• Oregon (4-0)
• TCU (3-0)
• Texas A&M (5-0)
• UCLA (4-0)

Tier Two: Power Five conference teams with one loss (25): any of the following teams that wins out has a good shot at making the playoff, but there is no guarantee. In almost every case at this point, winning out would mean winning the conference, so many of these teams still do control their destiny. But every 1-loss team is at the mercy of the Committee, and their odds will depend on how many undefeated teams there are and who the other 1-loss Power Five teams are.

• Arizona St (3-1)
• California (3-1)
• Duke (4-1)
• Florida (2-1)
• Georgia (3-1)
• Iowa (4-1)
• Kansas St (3-1)
• Kentucky (3-1)
• Louisville (4-1)
• LSU (4-1)
• Maryland (4-1)
• Michigan St (3-1)
• Minnesota (4-1)
• Missouri (4-1)
• North Carolina St (4-1)
• Ohio State (3-1)
• Oklahoma St (3-1)
• Oregon St (3-1)
• Penn State (4-1)
• Rutgers (4-1)
• Southern Cal (3-1)
• Stanford (3-1)
• Utah (3-1)
• Washington (4-1)
• Wisconsin (3-1)

Tier Three: Undefeated "Group of Five" teams (2): We include BYU here even though they aren't in a conference, but they're in the same boat as Marshall. They can finish undefeated, and then their fate is completely up in the air. If there is a shortage of undefeated and 1-loss Power Five teams, they have a decent chance. If not, their odds are poor since their schedules just aren't strong enough. However, any undefeated team is going to be in the discussion, whether that discussion is serious or not.

• BYU (4-0)
• Marshall (4-0)

Tier Four: 2-loss Power Five teams (18): These teams have the most "range" in terms of how they'll be viewed if they win out. Ending up with 2 losses as a power conference team could mean they're in the top five nationally, or they might be ranked #20 in the polls and ignored by the Committee. So the teams here could rank above the Tier Three teams, and even above some Tier Two teams, or they could be below the Tier Five teams. The specifics matter here more than anywhere, but at this stage any of these teams that wins out will be riding a long winning streak and might be a conference champ, so a decent level of destiny-control is still there for some.

• Arkansas (3-2)
• Boston College (3-2)
• Clemson (2-2)
• Illinois (3-2)
• Indiana (2-2)
• Kansas (2-2)
• Miami FL (3-2)
• North Carolina (2-2)
• Northwestern (2-2)
• Pittsburgh (3-2)
• South Carolina (3-2)
• Syracuse (2-2)
• Tennessee (2-2)
• Texas (2-2)
• Texas Tech (2-2)
• Virginia (3-2)
• Virginia Tech (3-2)
• West Virginia (2-2)

Tier Five: Group of Five teams with 1 loss (8): These teams have almost no hope. But if there is a disastrous year like 2007 when almost every team has 2 losses, suddenly 1-loss teams will be in the mix. Their odds of being chosen over the Power Five 2-loss teams is small unless they have a really good case, and already, many of the teams below have a poor case due to who they lost to. But it's still above absolute zero.

• Air Force (3-1)
• Cincinnati (2-1)
• Colorado St (3-1)
• East Carolina (3-1)
• Louisiana-Monroe (3-1)
• Nevada (3-1)
• Northern Illinois (3-1)
• Temple (3-1)

Power Five teams with three losses, and other teams with two losses are not going to make the Playoff; their odds are exactly zero. There are 60 such teams so we won't list them, but by conference here are the number of teams still alive:

• American Athletic: 3 of 11 (Cincinnati, East Carolina, Temple alive)
• ACC: 13 of 14 (Wake Forest gone)
• Big Ten: 12 of 14 (Michigan, Purdue gone)
• Big Twelve: 9 of 10 (Iowa State gone)
• Conference USA: 1 of 13 (Marshall alive)
• Independents: 2 of 4 (BYU, Notre Dame alive, Army, Navy gone)
• MAC: 1 of 13 (Northern Illinois alive)
• Mountain West: 3 of 12 (Air Force, Colorado State, Nevada alive)
• Pac-12: 10 of 12 (Colorado, Washington State gone)
• SEC: 13 of 14 (Vanderbilt gone)
• Sun Belt: 1 of 11 (Louisiana-Monroe alive)

Week 5 power rating update: Baylor #1, UCLA up to #2; Florida State #6, or #27?

For five weeks we've been updating our Pre-Season rankings based on each team's weekly performance, a method that falls somewhere between a Bayesian and ELO approach. We use this approach because it takes some time before an unbiased system—like our Strength power rating—starts to produce good results. After 5 weeks, the Strength power rating is starting to come together, but might still have some shortcomings. The updated pre-season ratings are nearing the end of their usefulness, and next week (week 6) we start to combine the two before transitioning to the unbiased Strength ratings in week 7. To show where a team's ranking might be heading, we include the Strength ranking in the table of this week's update.

Who is #1? Baylor has been at #1 for 3 weeks now; FSU started at #1, held it during week 1, then ceded the spot to Oregon in week 2. The Bears beat Iowa State 49-28 which was good enough to hold off a huge charge by UCLA, who jumps from #10 to #2 after beating Arizona State 62-27. In Strength, Baylor is #3 but UCLA is only #11, suggesting they're getting too much of a boost from our pre-season #3 ranking. The Bruins disappointed in each of their first three games before ASU, and even in that game the defense was questionable, so we'd guess #11 is more accurate than #2.

The teams from #3 to #6 all underperformed and fell, though they all won, allowing Oregon to move up to #4 without playing and Mississippi to move up 3 spots even though their 24-3 win over Memphis met expectations almost exactly. SEC teams Texas A&M, Auburn, and Georgia failed to impress but all remain in the top 10 both in these rankings and in Strength, and Auburn is #1 there.

Florida State is a different matter. They've dropped in rating every update, this week falling to #6, and in Strength—which carries no pre-season bias—they are a pedestrian #27. This begs the question, how good (or not) are the Seminoles? It's pretty certain that they're not playing like a #1 team, but are they really outside the top 25? Note that one of their games—the overtime win over Clemson—was played without Jameis Winston. In Strength they're getting hit for their 37-12 win over The Citadel, a result that an average FBS team should achieve. In this case, the updated rankings are probably a lot closer to the truth than Strength, which needs a few more weeks to be accurate with some teams.

Michigan State is another interesting case. We ranked them #15 in the pre-season and in each update they've hovered near that spot, this week moving up to #12. In the unbiased Strength ratings they're not far off at #17. But our pre-season rankings for their offense and defense were #36 and #4, and they're known as a defense-oriented team. While their offense has been much improved this year, the Strength ratings (for all Divisions) put the Spartans at #3 on offense—and only #67 on defense! These numbers don't match most observers' realities. The Strength ratings often take some time before things "fall into place" and this is one of those cases. Giving up 46 points to Oregon—in one of only 4 games sampled so far—has the computer thinking Michigan State has an "average" defense. That should correct in the next few weeks. Perhaps MSU's defense isn't quite as good as most people think, but it's got to be better than #67.

Pac-12 teams USC and Stanford (#11 and #18) could be mis-rated, too, as they are only #25 and #30 in Strength. Stanford's game next week against Notre Dame should help answer that question. On the other hand Wisconsin's ranking (#24) nearly matches their Strength ranking (#22) after the Badgers fall 12 spots due to their weak 27-10 win over South Florida. Right now the rankings are off by an average of 9 places per team, with a median of 7 places and a mode of 2.

SportsRatings pre-season rankings updated for week 5

LW	Rank	Team	rec	chg	Strength rnk
1	1	Baylor	4-0	-0.45	3
10	2	UCLA	4-0	+4.65	11
2	3	Alabama	4-0	0.00	4
7	4	Oregon	4-0	0.00	9
8	5	Mississippi	4-0	+0.05	8
4	6	Florida St	4-0	-1.42	27
9	7	Oklahoma	4-0	0.00	2
3	8	Texas A&M	5-0	-2.11	6
6	9	Auburn	4-0	-1.48	1
5	10	Georgia	3-1	-3.41	5
14	11	Southern Cal	3-1	+1.85	25
15	12	Michigan St	3-1	+1.61	17
11	13	BYU	4-0	0.00	19
16	14	Ohio State	3-1	+0.42	21
18	15	LSU	4-1	+0.74	12
22	16	TCU	3-0	+3.58	7
19	17	Mississippi St	4-0	0.00	16
20	18	Stanford	3-1	+0.30	30
17	19	Clemson	2-2	-0.81	24
25	20	Arkansas	3-2	+2.11	13
28	21	Maryland	4-1	+3.98	23
13	22	Utah	3-1	-2.49	26
21	23	Notre Dame	4-0	+0.70	10
12	24	Wisconsin	3-1	-3.92	22
23	25	Missouri	4-1	+0.13	28
26	26	Florida	2-1	0.00	29
30	27	Nebraska	5-0	+1.60	14
24	28	Oklahoma St	3-1	-1.73	32
27	29	West Virginia	2-2	0.00	18
29	30	Arizona	4-0	0.00	41
32	31	South Carolina	3-2	-0.13	31
36	32	Texas	2-2	+1.13	38
35	33	Marshall	4-0	0.00	40
38	34	East Carolina	3-1	0.00	33
48	35	Washington St	2-3	+2.49	50
41	36	Kansas St	3-1	+0.10	15
40	37	Houston	2-2	0.00	75
42	38	Virginia	3-2	+0.08	36
50	39	Minnesota	4-1	+3.12	44
34	40	Louisville	4-1	-2.42	34
43	41	Washington	4-1	-0.30	51
54	42	Tennessee	2-2	+3.41	20
39	43	Oregon St	3-1	-1.85	78
55	44	Miami FL	3-2	+2.46	47
37	45	Duke	4-1	-2.46	45
31	46	Arizona St	3-1	-4.65	58
33	47	Indiana	2-2	-3.98	61
49	48	Memphis	2-2	-0.05	39
47	49	Virginia Tech	3-2	-1.06	37
66	50	Northwestern	2-2	+4.99	62
45	51	California	3-1	-2.78	49
51	52	Central Florida	1-2	0.00	73
46	53	Kentucky	3-1	-2.09	42
58	54	Iowa	4-1	+0.69	53
57	55	Syracuse	2-2	-0.70	35
59	56	Georgia Tech	4-0	0.00	64
44	57	Boise St	3-2	-5.41	67
65	58	North Carolina	2-2	+0.81	80
70	59	Temple	3-1	+2.44	43
64	60	Nevada	3-1	+0.65	68
68	61	Colorado St	3-1	+1.61	71
62	62	Cincinnati	2-1	-0.42	57
53	63	Michigan	2-3	-3.12	60
60	64	Boston College	3-2	-1.61	59
71	65	Rutgers	4-1	+1.87	65
61	66	UTSA	1-3	-1.81	69
67	67	Iowa St	1-3	+0.45	52
69	68	Northern Illinois	3-1	0.00	74
72	69	Texas Tech	2-2	+1.73	77
52	70	Pittsburgh	3-2	-5.51	46
56	71	Penn State	4-1	-4.99	56
73	72	North Carolina St	4-1	+1.42	55
63	73	Navy	2-3	-3.73	66
74	74	San Diego St	2-2	+0.03	94
75	75	Toledo	3-2	+0.03	79
76	76	North Texas	2-2	0.00	72
81	77	Colorado	2-3	+2.78	89
84	78	W. Kentucky	2-2	+3.73	63
78	79	Utah St	2-2	0.00	81
77	80	Fresno St	2-3	-0.29	99
80	81	Georgia Southern	3-2	+0.97	54
83	82	Florida Atlantic	2-3	+1.81	87
85	83	MTSU	3-2	+2.49	83
79	84	Illinois	3-2	-1.60	82
87	85	Louisiana Tech	2-3	+1.48	48
104	86	Akron	2-2	+5.51	76
91	87	Rice	1-3	+1.71	85
106	88	Air Force	3-1	+5.41	91
105	89	Ohio U.	3-2	+5.23	106
82	90	Bowling Green	3-2	-1.36	108
89	91	Hawaii	0-3	0.00	84
86	92	San Jose St	1-3	-0.65	90
98	93	Wake Forest	2-3	+2.42	110
99	94	Vanderbilt	1-4	+2.09	102
92	95	LA-Lafayette	1-3	0.00	116
95	96	Arkansas St	2-2	0.00	70
90	97	Purdue	2-3	-0.69	86
93	98	Kansas	2-2	-1.13	111
88	99	Old Dominion	3-2	-2.49	113
94	100	Wyoming	3-2	-1.61	95
111	101	South Alabama	2-2	+3.39	103
100	102	Texas St.	2-2	-0.10	97
96	103	Tulane	1-4	-1.87	109
102	104	Ball St	1-3	0.00	92
108	105	Western Mich.	2-2	+1.06	96
114	106	South Florida	2-3	+3.92	98
107	107	Central Michigan	2-3	-0.03	104
110	108	Buffalo	3-2	+0.36	101
103	109	Army	1-3	-1.91	107
101	110	LA-Monroe	3-1	-2.45	114
97	111	UAB	2-2	-4.97	88
112	112	UTEP	2-2	-0.10	93
109	113	Connecticut	1-4	-2.44	115
115	114	UNLV	1-4	-0.03	127
116	115	Tulsa	1-3	+0.10	118
117	116	Miami OH	0-5	-0.36	105
113	117	Appalachian St	1-3	-0.97	112
123	118	FIU	2-3	+4.97	100
118	119	New Mexico	1-3	+0.29	121
120	120	Kent St	0-4	-0.08	125
124	121	Massachusetts	0-5	+1.36	119
119	122	Southern Miss	2-3	-1.71	117
125	123	Troy	0-5	+2.45	126
121	124	Idaho	0-4	-3.39	124
122	125	SMU	0-4	-3.58	123
126	126	Georgia St	1-3	0.00	122
127	127	New Mexico St	2-3	-0.74	120
128	128	Eastern Michigan	1-3	0.00	128

The team with the biggest ranking discrepancy is Houston, who is #37 or #75 depending on which rating you look at! The Cougars started at #16 in our pre-season rankings and the weekly adjustments haven't captured their (lack of) quality nearly enough. Indiana is another case study in overrating; they were #18 pre-season, but they've fallen to #47, which our Strength rating says is still 14 spots too high. The Hoosiers clearly have the potential to play very well—hence the upset of Missouri—but they are too inconsistent to be a good team week to week. Oregon State is #43 and 3-1, so in this case it might be their Strength rating (#78) that's off. In general though, the Pac-12 doesn't rank very well in Strength and might not be meeting our pre-season expectations.

Georgia Southern and Louisiana Tech are two teams we didn't expect much from this year, and both have exceeded those expectations nearly every week. The Eagles started at #121 and moved to #116, #104, #91, and now #81—but the Strength power rating has them at #54! Louisiana Tech has moved from #114 to #85. Strength has the Bulldogs at #48 despite their earlier loss to Northwestern State.

Playoff Odds, week 5: UCLA, Alabama in; Oregon, Baylor out

Not much happened in week 5, but on our College Football Playoff Odds chart, two teams were replaced in the Top 4.

Florida State and Oklahoma held down the top two spots again, and remained the only teams firmly above 50% in odds to make the 4-team Playoff. UCLA's big 62-27 win over Arizona State convinced our power ratings that they should be the Pac-12 favorite again, and that pushed the Bruins to the #3 spot at just over 50% while dumping idle Oregon to #6. Alabama was idle, too, but took over the SEC favorite spot from Georgia which launched the Tide up to #4. Baylor's odds held steady at around 1 in 3 but the Bears were pushed to #5.

All of the top 6 teams face challenges in the coming weeks.

• Florida State has held the top spot all year but their odds to go 13-0 fell yet again, to 18%. The Seminoles keep winning but their odds to win out go down—that's not supposed to happen. After allowing 41 points to North Carolina State, FSU is down to #6 in our updated rankings, and it could get worse as we begin to transition to using our All-Division Strength power rating, where the 'Noles are only #27! Worse, they lose their #1 ranking in the USA poll, which could spell trouble when the CFP Committee's rankings come out. Next up is Wake Forest, then Syracuse, which shouldn't be difficult but any problems will reinforce that FSU is a shadow of last year's team. It's looking more and more like anything short of 13-0 will not get the Seminoles in the Playoff.
• Oklahoma and Baylor face a growing threat: TCU. Oklahoma faces the Horned Frogs on the road next week, then Baylor hosts TCU the following week. For the Sooners, it's a game that might be tougher than facing Baylor in Norman. Right now Oklahoma is a slight road favorite and Baylor—still our #1 power rated team—is a 12-point favorite in Waco. But the next two weeks can shake up the Big Twelve race and potentially add a third team into the mix. This week TCU leaps from #20 to #11 after shutting out SMU 56-0. Their schedule so far has been easy and they'll be thrown into the fire, but we can't rule out the possibility that they're for real.
• UCLA and Oregon face off in L.A. in two weeks, and that should resolve a lot of the flip-flopping that's been going on between the teams. They're also projected to meet for a rematch in the Pac-12 title game, and any one-sided result on October 11 could change that. In the week before, UCLA hosts a tough Utah team, while Oregon hosts Arizona this Thursday.
• Alabama got some help in their bye week from the coaches, who put the Tide #1 which suggests the ex-coach-heavy Committee might also smile upon them. But they have to take care of business, which next week includes traveling to Mississippi for a game in which we favor the Rebels by a hair (that's where the loss in Alabama's 11-1 straight-up projection comes from). Winning that game would really put the Tide in the driver's seat. This week it was Georgia's weakness that boosted Alabama to the #4 spot, a placing they might hold even with a close loss next week. Their cumulative projection of 2.4 losses shows how dangerous the SEC is.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Odds chart, week 5 (9/28/2014)

Last week	This Week	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	9/28 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	Poll Ave
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	72.9	+1.7	4-0	12	0	10.7	1.3	18.3%	1.5
2	2	Oklahoma	60.5	+2.5	4-0	12	0	10.4	1.6	13.0%	3.5
5	3	UCLA	50.5	+26.4	4-0	12	0	10.6	1.4	11.0%	8.5
9	4	Alabama	41.1	+19.9	4-0	11	1	9.6	2.4	2.5%	2
4	5	Baylor	34.1	0.0	4-0	11	1	10.5	1.5	16.4%	6.5
3	6	Oregon	26.2	-16.1	4-0	11	1	10.1	1.9	3.8%	3
10	7	Marshall	13.8	-0.2	4-0	12	0	11.2	0.8	34.1%	30
11	8	Brigham Young	13.1	+0.4	4-0	12	0	11.1	0.9	38.2%	18.5
13	9	Auburn	8.7	+1.2	4-0	9	3	8.9	3.1	0.5%	5
14	10	Notre Dame	8.5	+1.2	4-0	10	2	9.0	3.0	1.3%	8.5
20	11	TCU	8.2	+6.3	3-0	10	2	9.2	2.8	1.6%	25
12	12	Mississippi	8.0	+0.4	4-0	11	1	9.2	2.8	1.2%	11
15	13	Michigan St	7.9	+0.9	3-1	10	2	9.2	2.8	7.0%	10
7	14	Georgia	6.4	-15.8	3-1	11	1	9.0	3.0	3.6%	12.5
6	15	Wisconsin	6.1	-17.6	3-1	11	1	9.0	3.0	3.3%	16.5
--	16	Maryland	6.0	+5.8	4-1	10	2	8.8	3.2	2.8%	38
16	17	Clemson	5.6	0.0	2-2	10	2	8.7	3.3	16.3%	28
8	18	Duke	5.2	-16.3	4-1	11	1	8.4	3.6	0.7%	36.5
17	19	Texas A&M	5.2	-0.2	5-0	10	2	9.3	2.7	1.0%	6.5
18	20	Northern Illinois	2.7	-0.1	3-1	11	1	9.4	2.6	10.6%	--
19	21	East Carolina	2.6	-0.1	3-1	11	1	9.6	2.4	17.4%	21.5
21	22	Nebraska	2.2	+0.4	5-0	10	2	9.3	2.7	0.6%	18
22	23	Ohio State	1.5	+0.3	3-1	9	3	9.0	3.0	3.7%	19
24	24	Mississippi St	1.1	+0.3	4-0	8	4	8.7	3.3	0.2%	13
25	25	Southern Cal	0.7	+0.3	3-1	10	2	8.5	3.5	1.3%	18

Dropped out: #23 Utah;  Others receiving "votes": Missouri (4-1), Stanford (3-1), LSU (4-1), Minnesota (4-1), Arizona (4-0), Oklahoma State (3-1), Colorado State (3-1), Louisville (2-1), Utah (3-1), Georgia Tech (4-0)

Marshall and BYU, the top hopes outside the Power Five, both slide up three spots but their own odds barely budged at 13 or 14%. Marshall isn't yet in either top 25, but BYU did well for a bye week in moving up two spots in both polls (to #18 and #19). Until these teams approach the top ten in the polls they're pretty much stuck where they are; this week some Power Five teams drop below them, but others will jump them in the following weeks unless the Herd and Cougars find poll support. Neither is close to showing as a top five team in our power ratings, though BYU may have that potential. Notre Dame is also independent but plays a Power Five schedule and they jump into the top 10 partly due to FSU's weakness; the odds of an Irish upset win in Tallahassee are growing (slowly) each week. They're still projected to lose 2 or 3 games at this point.

SEC West teams Auburn, Mississippi, and Mississippi State all rose slightly with wins this week, but Georgia's 45-42 escape vs. Tennessee is what shook up the conference. Of those teams only Auburn faces the Bulldogs in the regular season, but Georgia is projected to make the SEC title game (a notion that was confirmed by South Carolina's loss to Missouri) and could face the others there. The Bulldogs have at least partial home-field advantage for playing that game in Atlanta, but they're no longer favored to beat Alabama there if they face the Tide. Texas A&M is in the same boat as the other SEC West teams but the Aggies lost some ground by barely escaping Arkansas in overtime. They face Mississippi State next week.

The Big Ten's outlook is as bleak as ever this week after Wisconsin failed to impress against South Florida, winning just 27-10. That put Michigan State back as Big Ten favorite, and the Spartans are looking like an offensive juggernaut after blasting Wyoming worse than Oregon did. The Badgers dropped from #6 to #15, while the Spartans' bump was small since they face a growing regular-season threat from Maryland, the sole new entry on the chart at #16. Nebraska and Ohio State took care of business but with the Cornhuskers the conference's only undefeated team it's looking more and more like the Big Ten winner will have two losses and be well outside the top four.

The ACC isn't well-positioned to have a representative if FSU falters. Duke had the potential to squeak by several opponents and go 12-0, but Miami ruined that possibility. The Blue Devils are still narrow favorites in every game left but their odds of going 12-1—i.e. beating FSU—are just 0.7% and they fall from #8 last week to #18 this week. Clemson already has 2 losses and another one will drop them to 0% odds, but they're a favorite in every remaining game, with a 16% chance to achieve that. They'd also need FSU to lose twice in-conference to make the ACC title game, probably the harder part of their quest.

At #20 Northern Illinois and #21 East Carolina both have a loss, making them Group of Five longshots, but winning out might put them on the map. Their odds are fairly good, at 11% and 17% respectively, but they both have an uphill battle with their weak schedules in terms of recognition. The Pirates are in the polls, which could help if and when they move up, but the Huskies don't have a single vote and could be stuck at the bottom even if they win out.

With Utah's loss to Washington State, USC is the only Pac-12 team on the map other than UCLA and Oregon. The Trojans already have a loss but if they avoid another, they have late-season showdowns with UCLA and Notre Dame that could launch them into the discussion late. Until then don't expect too much change as we favor them in every game up to that point.

 

Committee member Barry Alvarez using margin-of-victory based power rating for College Football Playoff

When the new College Football Playoff was announced with great fanfare and a star-studded Committee was introduced, the college football world rejoiced: No more computers! And no more looking at the polls! But it's pretty clear that computers and polls are what the Committee is going to use to make its decisions, which will probably look a lot more like the BCS results than anyone wants to admit.

Let's take the polls. The AP and coaches poll are created by sportswriters and coaches. The Harris poll (used by the BCS) was a mix of former players, coaches, and media members. The College Football Playoff committee has the same makeup—current Athletic Directors mixed with ex-coaches and players. The names may be "bigger" but there's no reason to believe their choices will be more informed than the aggregate of sportswriters or coaches in the AP and USA poll.

Then there's the computers. While the six systems used by the BCS are gone, the Committee has signed up with a service that will provide a variety of statistics. They'll take those into consideration the same way the NCAA basketball selection committee uses the "Nitty-Gritty" report to select its 68 teams in March. The difference is there is no "RPI" equivalent supplied for the football committee.

But should there be? Tons of information with no way to digest it can be used to justify anything. A good power rating provides a way of digesting thousands of points of information. Case in point: Barry Alvarez describes a very basic and important kind of power rating when he talks about criteria he will use:

"In other words, let's say a team scores 50 points four games in a row, but the teams they're playing give up an average of 45," Alvarez said. "And then you've got someone who's played a very difficult schedule and they're averaging 21 points a game, but the teams they're playing only give up an average of 10 points. There's a huge difference there. That variation on both offense and defense are very telling statistics."

Hmm, let's see. Comparison of points scored to the opponent's average points yielded? And vice versa? And if we take that through multiple cycles until the numbers don't change? Then you have a margin-of-victory based power rating. Much like our Strength power rating, or Sagarin's predictor, or the SRS from pro-football-reference.com.

ESPN's article makes pains to distance what he's saying from margin of victory, which was verboten in the BCS era:

While Alvarez said he doesn't place much stock in margin of victory, he does pay close attention to a statistic on relative offensive and defensive performance.

Which of course is impossible. If you are paying "close attention" to relative offensive and defensive performance, you are ultimately paying close attention to margin of victory. You are just adjusting it for strength of schedule, which is what a power rating does.

And this is what is going to happen as the Committee becomes more versed in how to rank college football teams. There's no doubt the Committee has tons of college football expertise, but there's no indication at all that they have any expertise in ranking college football teams. The two are not nearly the same thing.

Right now their focus is on information, and deciding what information is relevant. Perhaps each member will have "pet" statistics to use. They might each use a different method to decide what "strength of schedule" means, and it's important since that's pretty much all we've heard them talk about since the committee was formed.

Maybe as the committee members think about the problem more—what constitutes quality?—then they will replicate some of the solutions that have already been used to rank teams in the past. Alvarez took the first step in replicating a Strength/Predictor/SRS power rating. Others might come up with MOV-free descriptions. They might have programmers implement some of these systems. If, say, half of the committee members do so, then there will be six computer programs that will be part of the Playoff decision process.

Add those six computer programs to the Harris/USA-like mix of coaches and football players on the decision Committee, and it will be like the BCS never went away!

Week 5 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: UCLA, FSU have a lot to prove on the road

Week 5 is a "hybrid" week: conference play has started, but there are still a lot of non-conference matchups. In our first two previews we focus on a couple of teams who have clearly underperformed our expectations: Florida State and UCLA. We also review a couple of games in which teams who were "looking ahead" might overperform after bad games last week.

Florida State was our (and everyone else's) pre-season #1; since, they've slipped to #4 in our updated rankings. They're about 11 1/2 points worse than we predicted, and while that's considering just 3 games and includes a game without Jameis Winston, our All-Division Strength rating currently has the Seminoles ranked just #20. It's still early enough that those results aren't reliable, but they give an indication that FSU might not be automatically Playoff-bound as we'd assumed early on. In other words, they have to prove they belong. This week they face unbeaten North Carolina State.

UCLA has faltered even more than the Seminoles, and already they aren't a Playoff favorite anymore. Even though they're 3-0, the Bruins have to prove they're going to challenge Oregon for the Pac-12 title. We ranked them #3 in the pre-season but they've fallen to 10th after narrow wins over Virginia, Memphis, and Texas. Thursday night they face Arizona State, another unbeaten Pac-12 team.

• #10 UCLA (3-0) at #31 Arizona State (3-0)
  Line/spread: UCLA by 4
  
  By the AP, this game is a lot closer: it's the #11 vs. #15 team. And in our early All-Division Strength power rating, it's a close game between mediocre teams: #34 UCLA vs. #38 Arizona State. So when everything is said and done in the college football season, this game might not matter much at all. But right now it could be an important one.
  
  Obviously if UCLA loses this game their Playoff odds take a huge hit. But Arizona State is in a difficult spot unless they improve a lot; right now we favor them in only one more game all season! Though they will probably end up around 7-5, in straight-up wins vs. losses if everything goes to plan, they finish 4-8, losing close games to Stanford, Washington, Utah, Notre Dame, Oregon State, and Arizona while beating Washington State. The line between 4-8 and 10-2 is surprisingly slim, it's this game vs. UCLA and the next game vs. USC which are the "solid" losses. If the Sun Devils win those games convincingly, they have a real chance to go 12-0. But without QB Taylor Kelly they're at a disadvantage right when they need an edge. UCLA needs to make a statement with a big win, but they might be without Brett Hundley and probably squeak by again.
  
  Prediction: UCLA 31, Arizona State 27
  
  
• #4 Florida State (3-0) at #73 North Carolina State (4-0)
  Line/spread: FSU by 19
  
  Even though FSU was without Jameis Winston against Clemson, they were at home, and if they're really the best team in the country they shouldn't have had a problem. Instead their offensive line was dominated all game and they basically won via Clemson mistakes, mostly unforced ones too. If they aren't dominant against NC State this week it will further add to the notion that they're vulnerable to upset. The Wolfpack are undefeated against Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, South Florida, and Presbyterian, and the first two games were close. They are probably better than #73, but they rank only #59 in the Strength power rating so if the game is close, it's probably another bad sign for the Seminoles rather than a demonstration of Wolfpack prowess. Jameis Winston probably didn't like standing on the sidelines while his team almost blew it so look for some big offensive production from the 'Noles.
  
  Prediction: Florida State 49, NC State 23
  
  
• #62 Cincinnati (2-0) at #16 Ohio State (2-1)
  Line/spread: Ohio State by 17
  
  Is there a more obvious case of "looking ahead" than Cincy's 31-24 win over Miami of Ohio? With the Buckeyes coming up, the Bearcats started slow, then took over the game, but never really put it away. Because of that they took a dive in our rankings and are a huge underdog Saturday. But no one really knows much about Cincinnati after two games, and if the last game was an aberration the Buckeyes could have their hands full. Gunner Kiel has been excellent so far, but the Cincy defense gave up 34 to Toledo and 24 to Miami Ohio. That means the Buckeyes are going to score a lot, and Cincinnati will have to try to keep up. They might do a pretty good job of it since this is a game they're obviously pumped up for, and if they keep it close they'll have a shot at the upset.
  
  Prediction: Cincinnati 42, Ohio State 39
  
  
• #87 Louisiana Tech (2-2) at #6 Auburn (3-0)
  Line/spread: Auburn by 33
  
  This is another case where the underdog was "looking ahead" last week. And this time, there's the added bonus that the favored team is probably "looking ahead" right now. Louisiana Tech has had an up-and-down season, losing big at Oklahoma (48-16) but finding their offense in wins over LA-Lafayette (48-20) and North Texas (42-21) before inexplicably falling to Northwestern State, 30-27 last week at home. The only explanation is that, after two solid wins, the Bulldogs were thinking about Auburn and how they were going to shock the world; instead, they got shocked by an FCS team. Now, no one is giving the Bulldogs any chance; even ESPN, in reviewing games where the favorite is "looking ahead" gave LA Tech no chance here, saying "there should also be no cause for concern." With Auburn looking ahead to LSU, while Louisiana Tech is playing the game they want to be playing, there is cause for concern that the Tigers could meet a stiffer test than they'd counted on.
  Prediction: Auburn 40, Louisiana Tech 28

Week 4 Power Ratings: Baylor stays #1, SEC takes 4 of top 6 spots

After week four the All-Division Strength power rating (referred to as Strength, from now on) is starting to come together, at least for FBS teams who have played 3 or more games. We're still going to review and use our updated Pre-season ratings for a few more weeks while the non-biased results improve, but we'll compare the two when reviewing the week-to-week movements.

Baylor remained #1—no one jumped over the Bears in their idle week—and they also hold down the #1 spot in Strength, too, giving some support to the idea that they could really be the best team. With just three games under their belts it's a bit early to say, especially given their opponents so far (SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo).

Four of the next five spots are held by SEC teams Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Auburn. Those teams are #6, #4, #3, and #2 in the unbiased Strength rankings, so while the order is reversed the sentiment is the same. Pre-season #1 Florida State has dropped to #4, and they're only #20 in Strength, but some of that is due to the Clemson close-call which we might assume is at least a partial aberration. Another SEC team, Mississippi, checks in at #8 here and #7 in Strength so half of the top ten teams in the country are from the SEC, 4 of them from the West.

Previous #3 Oregon drops to #7 after a close call of their own against Washington State, and in Strength they're just #19; unlike FSU they don't have an excuse. Oklahoma pushes ahead to #9 with UCLA coming in at #10; the Sooners are #5 in Strength but UCLA is only #34 so their pre-season ranking is still giving them much more credit than they deserve.

So in all, 7 of the top 10 in our updated pre-season rankings are in the unbiased Strength top 10 as seen below:

  #  Team                        rec   Rating Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
  1. Baylor                      3-0   77.42   69.06 [  1]   -8.35 [  8]
  2. Auburn                      3-0   77.32   65.44 [ 11]  -11.88 [  3]
  3. Georgia                     2-1   75.01   66.02 [  8]   -8.99 [  5]
  4. Texas A&M                   4-0   74.92   66.61 [  4]   -8.30 [  9]
  5. Oklahoma                    4-0   74.06   65.34 [ 12]   -8.71 [  7]
  6. Alabama                     4-0   70.97   62.10 [ 21]   -8.86 [  6]
  7. Mississippi                 3-0   68.09   62.52 [ 18]   -5.56 [ 16]
  8. Clemson                     1-2   66.67   66.55 [  5]   -0.12 [ 38]
  9. Notre Dame                  3-0   66.48   53.68 [ 62]  -12.80 [  2]
 10. Wisconsin                   2-1   65.48   63.54 [ 16]   -1.93 [ 26]

The three unique teams in the unbiased Strength top 10 are Clemson, Notre Dame, and Wisconsin, who are #17, #21, and #12 below. Wisconsin makes one of the bigger moves from last week from #25 to #12, putting them ahead of the LSU team that beat them. The Tigers, of course, lost to Mississippi State at home, but the Bulldogs didn't quite catch them in our rankings; they're 19th to LSU's #18. In the unbiased rankings things are properly ordered: Mississippi State is #13, LSU #14.

SportsRatings pre-season rankings, updated for week 4:

LW	Rank	Team	rec	chg
1	1	Baylor	3-0	0.00
5	2	Alabama	4-0	+1.39
7	3	Texas A&M	4-0	+2.65
2	4	Florida St	3-0	-2.36
11	5	Georgia	2-1	+3.01
4	6	Auburn	3-0	-1.45
3	7	Oregon	4-0	-1.73
6	8	Mississippi	3-0	0.00
10	9	Oklahoma	4-0	+1.43
9	10	UCLA	3-0	0.00
8	11	BYU	4-0	-2.25
25	12	Wisconsin	2-1	+5.12
18	13	Utah	3-0	+1.67
13	14	Southern Cal	2-1	0.00
16	15	Michigan St	2-1	+1.24
14	16	Ohio State	2-1	0.00
20	17	Clemson	1-2	+2.36
12	18	LSU	3-1	-2.27
21	19	Mississippi St	4-0	+2.27
17	20	Stanford	2-1	0.00
19	21	Notre Dame	3-0	0.00
22	22	TCU	2-0	0.00
15	23	Missouri	3-1	-2.90
23	24	Oklahoma St	2-1	0.00
32	25	Arkansas	3-1	+4.41
24	26	Florida	2-1	-1.39
26	27	West Virginia	2-2	-1.43
33	28	Maryland	3-1	+2.22
28	29	Arizona	4-0	-1.00
29	30	Nebraska	4-0	-0.50
30	31	Arizona St	3-0	0.00
27	32	South Carolina	3-1	-1.49
38	33	Indiana	2-1	+2.90
34	34	Louisville	3-1	+0.51
44	35	Marshall	4-0	+2.77
35	36	Texas	1-2	0.00
43	37	Duke	4-0	+2.44
56	38	East Carolina	3-1	+4.50
39	39	Oregon St	3-0	+1.27
37	40	Houston	2-2	+0.80
40	41	Kansas St	2-1	+1.45
47	42	Virginia	2-2	+2.25
31	43	Washington	4-0	-2.06
41	44	Boise St	3-1	+0.81
46	45	California	2-1	+1.00
45	46	Kentucky	2-1	0.00
36	47	Virginia Tech	2-2	-2.54
55	48	Washington St	1-3	+1.73
52	49	Memphis	2-1	+0.30
53	50	Minnesota	3-1	-0.20
60	51	Central Florida	1-2	+1.44
42	52	Pittsburgh	3-1	-2.20
49	53	Michigan	2-2	-1.67
57	54	Tennessee	2-1	0.00
59	55	Miami FL	2-2	+0.50
63	56	Penn State	4-0	+2.38
51	57	Syracuse	2-1	-2.22
65	58	Iowa	3-1	+2.20
67	59	Georgia Tech	4-0	+2.54
66	60	Boston College	3-1	+1.97
61	61	UTSA	1-2	0.00
48	62	Cincinnati	2-0	-4.11
54	63	Navy	2-2	-3.35
64	64	Nevada	2-1	0.00
50	65	North Carolina	2-1	-4.50
62	66	Northwestern	1-2	-1.50
68	67	Iowa St	1-2	0.00
69	68	Colorado St	2-1	0.00
58	69	Northern Illinois	3-1	-4.41
75	70	Temple	2-1	+3.23
78	71	Rutgers	3-1	+3.35
72	72	Texas Tech	2-1	0.00
71	73	North Carolina St	4-0	-0.46
70	74	San Diego St	1-2	-1.27
74	75	Toledo	2-2	-0.44
92	76	North Texas	2-2	+6.88
86	77	Fresno St	1-3	+4.08
76	78	Utah St	2-2	-0.81
79	79	Illinois	3-1	-0.69
91	80	Georgia Southern	2-2	+4.05
80	81	Colorado	2-2	+0.65
73	82	Bowling Green	2-2	-5.12
81	83	Florida Atlantic	1-3	-0.07
82	84	W. Kentucky	1-2	0.00
83	85	Middle Tennessee St	2-2	-0.30
88	86	San Jose St	1-2	+0.20
77	87	Louisiana Tech	2-2	-5.16
93	88	Old Dominion	3-1	+1.52
87	89	Hawaii	0-3	-0.65
106	90	Purdue	2-2	+3.75
84	91	Rice	0-3	-1.52
89	92	LA-Lafayette	1-3	-0.81
99	93	Kansas	2-1	+1.69
90	94	Wyoming	3-1	+0.07
96	95	Arkansas St	2-2	+0.81
85	96	Tulane	1-3	-2.44
95	97	UAB	2-1	0.00
97	98	Wake Forest	2-2	-0.43
107	99	Vanderbilt	1-3	+1.49
102	100	Texas St.	1-2	+0.69
101	101	LA-Monroe	2-1	0.00
103	102	Ball St	1-3	+0.44
104	103	Army	1-2	+0.43
94	104	Akron	1-2	-2.77
105	105	Ohio U.	2-2	-0.15
108	106	Air Force	2-1	0.00
100	107	Central Michigan	2-2	-1.69
116	108	Western Mich.	2-1	+4.18
109	109	Connecticut	1-3	-0.45
110	110	Buffalo	2-2	+0.39
98	111	South Alabama	1-2	-4.05
113	112	UTEP	2-1	0.00
112	113	Appalachian St	1-2	-0.48
115	114	South Florida	2-2	+0.45
111	115	UNLV	1-3	-0.80
114	116	Tulsa	1-2	0.00
121	117	Miami OH	0-4	+4.11
117	118	New Mexico	1-2	-0.73
122	119	Southern Miss	2-2	+0.48
120	120	Kent St	0-3	0.00
125	121	Idaho	0-3	+0.15
118	122	SMU	0-3	-2.65
124	123	FIU	1-3	-0.51
119	124	Massachusetts	0-4	-2.38
123	125	Troy	0-4	-3.01
126	126	Georgia St	1-3	+2.06
128	127	New Mexico St	2-2	+0.73
127	128	Eastern Michigan	1-3	-1.24

With UCLA at #10, Utah at #13 (up 5), and USC at #14, the Pac-12 South has quite a race on its hands. Those teams are #34, #18, and #25 in Strength so the Utes might end up the favorite eventually. BYU's #11 ranking, down from #8 pre-season, is somewhat validated by their #16 Strength rating.

What about the Big Ten? We didn't have their teams ranked very high to start and now we find, after Wisconsin at #12, Michigan State at #15, Ohio State at #16, Maryland at #28, Nebraska at #30, and Indiana at #33. In Strength these teams check in at #10, #43, #24, #30, #15, and #52. So Michigan State might not be quite as good as people think, and Nebraska probably started too low and hasn't moved up enough in our updates. And perhaps the Strength rankings needs more time to mature.

All in all there is remarkable similarity in the two ranking systems after four weeks. Just around the bottom of the top 25 are three more SEC teams: Missouri falling to #23, Arkansas rising to #25, and Florida at #26. These rankings are very similar to their Strength rankings of #26, #22, and #27. The Big Twelve's Oklahoma State and West Virginia, near-spoilers in week 1, check in at #24 and #27 here and at #17 and #21 in Strength.

Speaking of spoilers, East Carolina took a huge leap from #56 to #38 after beating North Carolina 70-41. The Tar Heels fell from #50 to #65. Another Pirate victim, Virginia Tech, lost to Georgia Tech and fell 11 spots to #47. And a third ACC teams, Pittsburgh, suffered a bad loss (to Iowa at home) and dropped ten spots to #52. Other big droppers include Cincinnati (down 14 to #62 after edging Miami of Ohio 31-24) and Northern Illinois (blown out by Arkansas 52-14, they fell 11 to #69).

When mature, the Strength ratings are better than an updated pre-season system, due to lack of bias and because things are "tied" together more. Above we see North Texas, up 16 to #76 after a great 77-3 win over Nicholls State. That puts them well head of Louisiana Tech, who drops 10 to #87 after losing to Northwestern State. But a week before, the Bulldogs beat the Mean Green 42-21. In Strength, Louisiana Tech is #60 and North Texas #87; a proper order is much more likely in an unbiased system. In the early weeks sometimes Strength isn't quite accurate while pre-season bias provides some order, After a few week we'll have the best of both worlds—unbiased, and informed.

Georgia Southern continued their upward charge. They started at #121, and have moved to #116, 104, 91, and now 81 in the ensuing weeks, proving they're much better than we projected. They're #63 in Strength so they may have more room to climb. They beat South Alabama 28-6 on Saturday. Purdue even showed some more signs of life as they easily handled Southern Illinois, 35-13 and jumped 16 spots to #90. Strength lists the Boilers at #93.

College Football Playoff Odds, week 4: FSU still on top, Oklahoma charges

Florida State had a terrible scare while Oklahoma emerged from a fight looking better than ever, and the Seminoles and Sooners are the top ranked teams on our College Football Playoff chart. They are the only major-conference teams expected to go undefeated and also the only two that are above 50% in Playoff odds.

Florida State probably should have lost to Clemson but pulled off an overtime victory, preventing them from becoming one of many teams on the outside looking in on the Playoff. Instead, the Committee can safely overlook the close call due to the circumstances and argue that a win's a win. And very importantly, FSU kept their top spot in the AP poll, showing that those who follow college football closely haven't demoted the Seminoles for the near-loss. But their odds to win out dip again, this time from 25% to 20%.

Oklahoma's 45-33 victory at West Virginia looks solid in comparison to Alabama's 33-23 neutral field triumph and now the Sooners are our favorite to win the Big Twelve. Baylor is still #1 in our power rating but the Bears might lose a close one in Norman; that's why they fall to #4 at 34% odds. Oregon had a close call of their own at Washington State, winning just 38-31; the Ducks hold their expected Playoff spot but their odds plunge to 42% as their odds of going unbeaten drop.

That still leaves two Big Twelve teams and no SEC teams in the top four like last week. But with only two teams above 50%, and seven more above 20%, there are no official favorites for the #3 and #4 spots. Within those seven teams are two SEC squads at #7 and #9, and four more litter the top 25. The conference's odds are spread out among those teams, adding up to around 65%.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds chart for week 4 (9/21/2014)

Last week	9/20 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	9/20 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	AP Rank
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	71.2	-8.0	3-0	12	0	10.8	1.2	20.5%	1
4	2	Oklahoma	58.0	+20.8	4-0	12	0	10.4	1.6	14.9%	4
2	3	Oregon	42.3	-25.2	4-0	11	1	10.1	1.9	5.3%	2
3	4	Baylor	34.1	-26.5	3-0	11	1	10.6	1.4	17.4%	7
10	5	UCLA	24.1	+13.8	3-0	12	0	9.5	2.5	2.3%	11
11	6	Wisconsin	23.7	+15.9	2-1	11	1	9.8	2.2	13.5%	19
22	7	Georgia	22.2	+20.6	2-1	11	1	9.3	2.7	7.3%	12
24	8	Duke	21.4	+20.7	4-0	12	0	9.2	2.8	0.6%	26
6	9	Alabama	21.1	+2.5	4-0	11	1	9.6	2.4	2.2%	3
8	10	Marshall	14.0	-0.5	4-0	12	0	11.3	0.7	34.1%	30
7	11	Brigham Young	12.7	-2.8	4-0	12	0	11.0	1.0	31.1%	20
17	12	Mississippi	7.6	+3.7	3-0	11	1	9.1	2.9	0.8%	10
9	13	Auburn	7.5	-5.9	3-0	9	3	9.0	3.0	0.6%	5
13	14	Notre Dame	7.3	-0.2	3-0	10	2	8.6	3.4	0.6%	8
5	15	Michigan St	7.0	-18.1	2-1	11	1	8.9	3.1	3.6%	9
14	16	Clemson	5.6	-1.1	1-2	10	2	8.6	3.4	15.0%	28
16	17	Texas A&M	5.4	+1.4	4-0	10	2	9.4	2.6	1.2%	6
15	18	Northern Illinois	2.7	-1.6	3-1	11	1	9.6	2.4	12.5%	--
--	19	East Carolina	2.7	+2.6	3-1	11	1	9.6	2.4	19.4%	23
19	20	TCU	1.9	-0.4	2-0	9	3	8.6	3.4	0.5%	29
18	21	Nebraska	1.8	-0.9	4-0	10	2	9.2	2.8	0.4%	21
12	22	Ohio State	1.2	-6.5	2-1	10	2	8.8	3.2	2.9%	22
25	23	Utah	1.0	+0.6	3-0	9	3	8.5	3.5	0.3%	31
--	24	Mississippi St	0.8	+0.5	4-0	8	4	8.7	3.3	0.1%	14
--	25	Southern Cal	0.4	-0.1	2-1	9	3	8.0	4.0	0.7%	18

Dropped out: #20 Missouri, #21 LSU, #23 Pittsburgh

Others receiving "votes": Indiana (2-1), Oklahoma State (2-1), Penn State (4-0), Arizona (4-0)

Georgia's 66-0 beatdown of Troy coupled with Auburn's tepid 20-14 win at Kansas State made the Bulldogs again the favorite to win the SEC, bumping the Dawgs back up to #7 and knocking the Tigers down to #13. Alabama gained from their win over Florida but other interlopers jumped them, dumping the Tide to #9. The SEC race will continue to be the most volatile as the conference has so many good teams within a hair's breadth of each other in quality.

Oregon's weakness allowed idle UCLA to regain much of its lost ground; the Bruins are now favored to beat Oregon in Los Angeles but lose to the Ducks in the Pac-12 title game. Wisconsin improved its odds by winning big—68-17 big—over Bowling Green, solidifying the Badgers' chances to run the table the rest of the way and win the Big Ten. This in turn knocked Michigan State from #5 to #15, and Ohio State down from #12 to #22. The Spartans' 73-14 win over Eastern Michigan wasn't enough to keep them the Big Ten favorite, but it was enough to keep them the East favorite over the Buckeyes.

The biggest mover was Duke who jumped from #24 to #8 after beating Tulane 47-13. In and of itself that didn't say much, but the Blue Devils now look like the Coastal Division favorite in the ACC and could win out prior to a meeting with Florida State. Their odds of going 13-0 are tiny (0.6%) but they're narrowly favored to start 12-0 now. ex-#23 Pittsburgh's loss to Iowa opened the door for Duke.

All of this upward activity from Power Five conference members knocked Marshall and BYU down a few rungs, with the Herd ahead at #10 now. BYU's 41-33 home win over Virginia was good but not "potentially top 4 in the nation" good, as they moved up only one spot in the top 25 to #20. Marshall is just outside the AP top 25 after beating Akron 48-17. The polls are the only hope for these teams to rise into the top 4 here; if they go undefeated without poll support (i.e., consensus opinion that they are top teams) then they will hover around #10 the rest of the year.

Clemson wasn't supposed to beat FSU so they don't fall much; they're still favored to go 10-2 but at 1-2 there's no margin for error and an 8- or 9-win season is more likely. Northern Illinois, likewise, wasn't supposed to beat Arkansas but their 52-17 loss was worse than we figured, and that drops their odds of finishing 12-1 significantly. On the other hand Utah was supposed to beat Michigan, and their 26-10 win was stronger than expected. It still only translates into a small bump from #25 to #23 as the pollsters predictably attributed it to the Wolverines' weakness not the Utes' strength.

Mississippi State upset LSU which puts the Bulldogs on the map and kicks the Tigers out. In the end the Tigers almost came back to win so it wasn't the "statement" that it looked like when the score was 34-10, but LSU's weakness helped Mississippi move up along with Texas A&M. Missouri's loss to Indiana made beating the Tigers look easier too, which also helps the Aggies.

East Carolina scored 70 points on North Carolina and now look like they could go 11-1 in the American Athletic Conference; our odds show nearly a 20% chance of doing so. That won't be enough to get them near Playoff consideration but if the polls give them support—they debut at #23 in the AP—the Pirates could move from a very long shot to just a typical long shot. Their schedule softens significantly from here, which makes winning out easier but makes winning Committee hearts and minds unlikely.

Week 4: Opportunities for Florida, Mississippi State, Clemson, Northern Illinois

There's really not much to see in Week 4. There are only 5 cross-conference games between Power Five teams compared to last week's 10, and last week seemed like a bummer before all the upsets. There are some storylines that make things more interesting, however:

Will Kansas State and Utah be re-evaluated correctly?

• #4 Auburn (2-0) at #40 Kansas State (2-0)
• #18 Utah (2-0) at #49 Michigan (2-1)
  Lines/spread: Auburn by 9; Michigan by 5
  Notice that our power rating has a bigger spread between these teams than the AP poll, which has Kansas State at #20 and doesn't rank Utah. We think the Wildcats are overrated and the Utes are flying under the radar, and these games may prove both points. But if they do, what will the reaction be? If Auburn beats Kansas State by a lot more than the 9 point spread thursday night, and Utah "upsets" Michigan on Saturday, the pundits will probably focus on how dominant the SEC is and how bad Michigan/the Big Ten is (and whether Brady Hoke can survive the season). We suggest that Utah should get most of the credit, and that Auburn won't deserve too much credit, though they are one of the nation's best teams. If the games don't turn out this way, we'll be the ones doing the re-evaluation.
  Predictions:
  Auburn 38, Kansas State 17
  Utah 31, Michigan 24

Will the SEC throw us any more curveballs?

• #24 Florida (2-0) at #5 Alabama (3-0)
• #21 Mississippi State (3-0) at #12 LSU (3-0)
  Lines/spread: Alabama by 15; LSU by 10
  After last week the SEC picture shifted into a limbo state where no team looked like a Playoff team given that they're all going to knock each other out. It would take a perfect storm for that to happen but these games could contribute to it. However, the better teams—as far as we can tell so far—are the home teams, which makes chaos a lot less likely. Assuming the favorites win, the closeness of the games will tell us something about the chances of Alabama and LSU to make the playoff; right now we see Alabama's chances as pretty good, and LSU's as poor to futile. Upsets would boost Will Muschamp's chances of staying on at Florida and boost Mississippi State into the Playoff discussion. We're going with the home favorites but figure that Florida was looking ahead last week and will cover, and the Bulldogs will scare the Tigers too. The teams involved all have great defense (and in most cases much less to offer on offense) and that should keep these games low-scoring like classic SEC clashes.
  Predictions:
  Alabama 16, Florida 10
  LSU 19, Mississippi State 17

How does Florida State compare to Georgia? How does Oklahoma rate vs. Alabama?

• #20 Clemson (2-1) at #2 Florida State (3-0)
• #10 Oklahoma (3-0) at #26 West Virginia (2-1)
  Lines/spread: Florida State by 16; Okahoma by 8
  Clemson lost to Georgia by 24, and West Virginia to Alabama by 10. So if Florida State and Oklahoma win by substantially more (or less) than those totals, it might tell us something about the Seminoles and Sooners vs. the top SEC teams. Of course things are complicated by Jameis Winston's absence for the first half, and the fact that Oklahoma plays on the road. But either way these are very important games for the College Football Playoff, and upsets here would really upset the picture. Last year's scores were FSU 51, Clemson 14, and Oklahoma 16, WVA 7, on the opposite home fields. We don't see FSU as being very likely to take the Tigers seriously after last year's blowout, and see West Virginia giving Oklahoma a very tough test.
  Predictions:
  Florida State 31, Clemson 26
  Oklahoma 30, West Virginia 27 (OT)

What are BYU's Playoff chances? Does Northern Illinois have a way in?

• #47 Virginia (2-1) at #8 BYU (3-0)
• #58 Northern Illinois (3-0) at #32 Arkansas (2-1)
  Lines/spread: BYU by 14; Arkansas by 14
  BYU is #21 in the polls, #8 in our power rating, and #7 on our Playoff Odds chart, meaning we think they have an excellent chance of sneaking in if Power Five conference teams knock each other off enough. Northern Illinois is unranked in the polls, is #58 in our power rating, and is #15 in Playoff Odds, meaning they need a whole lot to go their way to make it but have a prayer. First and foremost is going undefeated, and Arkansas is the last real hurdle; win Saturday, and they're favored the rest of the way. BYU is already favored the rest of the way, and they're a 2-touchdown favorite to beat Virginia, while NIU is a 2-touchdown underdog to Arkansas. BYU-Virginia gives us yet another comparison vs. UCLA; the Cougars beat Texas by 34, the Bruins won by 3. UCLA beat Virginia on the road by 8, so a refocused BYU should win comfortably. An improving Arkansas probably dispatches the Huskies' Playoff chances.
  Predictions:
  BYU 35, Virginia 14
  Arkansas 38, Northern Illinois 27

Is Syracuse the #1 team in the nation? Can Central Michigan and Kansas both lose?

• #33 Maryland (2-1) at #51 Syracuse (2-0)
• #100 Central Michigan (2-1) at #99 Kansas (1-1)
  Lines/spread: Maryland by 1; Kansas by 4
  The questions above are tongue-in-cheek, but there's reasoning behind them. Syracuse is 2-0 and unranked in the polls, and is just #51 in our Bayesian/ELO power rating which uses pre-season ratings as a starting point. But in the earliest incarnation of our unbiased Strength power rating, the Orange are #1! This follows an overtime win vs. Villanova and a 40-3 win over Central Michigan. And because Central Michigan beat Purdue 38-17, a better showing than Notre Dame managed, the Chippawas are at #10. Obviously things aren't far enough along to make valid comparisons without prior knowledge, but it does suggest that Syracuse might be a better team than people think; we can probably assume that they should be in the top 50, and Maryland will be a good test of that and provide yet another opportunity for the Big Ten to flop. Meanwhile Central Michigan takes on Kansas, who lost 41-3 to Duke. Are the Chippawas and Jayhawks equally inept? Their ranks in our power rating suggest they're a good match. We'll pick two minor upsets by slim margins.
  Predictions:
  Syracuse 30, Maryland 27
  Central Michigan 28, Kansas 27

 

1-loss Notre Dame would play on New Year's Day, could make playoff

Not sure what Dennis Dodd is smoking when he says that only an undefeated Notre Dame team would play on New Year's Day. The headline is a little less strict, claiming that Notre Dame needs to be undefeated to make the 4-team playoff, but even that's not true. A 1-loss Notre Dame has an excellent chance of being in the playoff.

This year there's no doubt a 1-loss Notre Dame team would play on New Year's Day, and even a 2-loss Irish team might make it this year. Dodd notes that in the future, due to Power Five conference committments to the rotating bowl schedule there will only be one "at-large" slot open among the six New Year's Day bowls in 2016. But assuming a 1-loss Notre Dame doesn't make the playoff, then 11 slots will be filled with Power Five conference teams. That's certain to wipe out all of the Power Five teams will zero losses or 1 loss, as well as several 2-loss teams. Notre Dame would be competing for that 12th spot with 3-loss teams; they would get it.

Dodd's discussion applies to BYU, not Notre Dame. A 1-loss BYU, if they continue to schedule the way they did this year, won't likely make a New Year's Day bowl now or in the future. Going undefeated is the only way they'll get there. So everything Dodd says applies to the Cougars but not the Irish, whose schedule he lumps in with the Cougars' schedule, even though they're not even close.

Notre Dame plays 10 Power Five conference teams while BYU plays just three. Notre Dame plays Florida State as well as Stanford, USC, and Arizona State from the Pac-12, all currently ranked teams. Dodd mentions that Notre Dame's schedule ranks 38th in the nation while the SEC teams are at the top, but that's for the three games played so far. Most SEC teams have played a conference game already so their SOS is high for the early season when most teams haven't played a conference game. Notre Dame's SOS for the full year is #4 according to the NCAA; that may change, but by the time the College Football Committee sets the New Year's bowl games the Irish will not be #38 in SOS.

College Football Playoff Odds, week 3: Georgia out; Who gets in from the SEC?

This big news this week is Georgia's loss, and it throws the Playoff picture into chaos. The Bulldogs fall to #22, as they're now expected to have two losses and are not favored to win the conference championship game if they get there. Almost every other team's odds increases to sop up the 45% the Bulldogs lost.

Why did Georgia's odds fall so far—from 46.3% to 1.6%—from one loss? The answer is that one loss is a killer to a team in the SEC, where there are so many teams waiting to take over as the favorite. To project a Playoff foursome you have to make some assumptions about who is going to go undefeated or have just one loss. Georgia went from a team we favored in every game to a 1-loss team that is likely to suffer at least one more loss, and that's a big distinction. Their odds of going undefeated went to zero, too, and that hurts a lot when it comes to the Playoff.

Florida State remains the most likely choice and probable "#1 seed", adding 15 percentage points to their chances without playing a game. Virginia Tech's loss helped, too, as it's that much more likely they win the ACC championship game against a weakened foe, so their odds of going 13-0 went up 2%.

Oregon's odds of going 13-0 fell from 8.8% to 7.2% but their Playoff odds jumped 11 percentage points. Much of that was from UCLA's continued weakness and we now find Oregon favored in every game. USC's tumble didn't hurt the Ducks, either.

Baylor took over the #1 spot in our power rating, and though their odds of going undefeated dropped (due to strong performances by Oklahoma and TCU) they hold on to the #3 spot here. The surprise is that the #4 spot is occupied by Oklahoma after their solid win over Tennessee. They're well below 50% odds so this week's projection isn't saying there will be two Big Twelve teams in the Playoff, but that one or the other of Baylor and Oklahoma will get in.

It's not impossible for two Big Twelve teams to get in; that scenario would include both Baylor and Oklahoma going undefeated in a dominant fashion then playing a very close game in Norman, perhaps with Oklahoma winning in overtime so a rematch seems necessary. But it's hard to imagine two Big Twelve teams making it ahead of every SEC team. That's why these results should be interpreted as having three solid teams (all above 50%) and a wide-open field for the 4th spot, and as the SEC picture solidifies a true front-runner will emerge for that spot.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds chart after games of week 3 (9/14/2014)

Last week	9/13 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	9/13 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	AP Rank
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	79.2	+14.9	2-0	12	0	10.9	1.1	25.8%	1
2	2	Oregon	67.5	+11.1	3-0	12	0	10.3	1.7	7.2%	2
3	3	Baylor	60.6	+9.4	3-0	12	0	10.6	1.4	18.5%	7
6	4	Oklahoma	37.2	+7.3	3-0	11	1	9.9	2.1	6.8%	4
8	5	Michigan St	25.0	+3.7	1-1	11	1	8.9	3.1	4.5%	11
5	6	Alabama	18.6	-11.6	3-0	11	1	9.3	2.7	1.6%	3
9	7	Brigham Young	15.6	+2.0	3-0	12	0	11.1	0.9	37.9%	21
16	8	Marshall	14.6	+10.7	3-0	12	0	10.8	1.2	19.2%	35
15	9	Auburn	13.4	+8.0	2-0	10	2	9.2	2.8	1.3%	5
11	10	UCLA	10.2	+2.0	3-0	11	1	9.5	2.5	1.9%	12
13	11	Wisconsin	7.8	+1.1	1-1	11	1	9.1	2.9	4.7%	19
--	12	Ohio State	7.8	+7.4	2-1	10	2	8.9	3.1	4.5%	23
12	13	Notre Dame	7.5	+0.5	3-0	10	2	8.3	3.7	0.4%	9
14	14	Clemson	6.7	+1.0	1-1	10	2	8.5	3.5	1.5%	22
17	15	Northern Illinois	4.3	+0.9	3-0	11	1	10.3	1.7	5.8%	NR
18	16	Texas A&M	4.0	+0.9	3-0	10	2	9.0	3.0	0.6%	6
19	17	Mississippi	3.9	+1.9	3-0	10	2	9.3	2.7	1.3%	10
--	18	Nebraska	2.7	+2.2	3-0	10	2	9.3	2.7	0.7%	24
22	19	TCU	2.3	+1.4	2-0	9	3	8.6	3.4	0.5%	32
--	20	Missouri	1.9	+1.3	3-0	9	3	8.9	3.1	0.5%	18
20	21	LSU	1.7	+0.2	3-0	9	3	8.4	3.6	0.2%	8
4	22	Georgia	1.6	-44.6	1-1	10	2	8.9	3.1	3.2%	13
21	23	Pittsburgh	0.8	-0.5	3-0	9	3	8.5	3.5	0.1%	33
--	24	Duke	0.7	+0.7	3-0	10	2	8.5	3.5	0.1%	27
--	25	Utah	0.5	+0.2	2-0	9	3	7.8	4.2	0.1%	NR

Dropped out: #7 Virginia Tech, #10 USC, #23 Florida, #24 Louisville, #25 Indiana

Others receiving "votes": USC (2-1), West Virginia (2-1), Virginia Tech (2-1), Navy (2-1), Florida (2-0), Mississippi State (3-0)

Why isn't Alabama a clear front-runner? The Tide actually drop back a spot, behind Michigan State who already has a loss to Oregon. The reason is that Alabama, as of this week, is now expected to lose at Mississippi, and they still aren't favored to beat Georgia for the SEC title. In other words, the SEC teams are expected to cannibalize each other (and that already started happening with South Carolina's win over Georgia). The projection is at a "perfect storm" point where every SEC team ends with 2 losses or more with only a "fuzzy" championship game winner. So until more concrete results come in, Alabama and Auburn are on the sidelines, though the Tigers made a good-sized jump to #9 without playing a game.

BYU didn't have the strongest showing against Houston but they moved up to #21 in the polls, which is where they need to make their progress. Going undefeated is already figured in to these projections for the Cougars for the most part, so they won't break the top 5 without making the top 5 in the polls. Another non-Power Five longshot, Marshall, got their mojo back and moved up to #8. The Herd are again favored to go 13-0 after a strong win over Ohio.

Two Big Ten teams rebounded with strong performances and jumped back into the thick of things. Ohio State's 66-0 win over Kent State has our power rating believing that the Buckeyes can possibly win the Big Ten and they return at #12. Their odds are roughly equal to Wisconsin's, since the Badgers have a much easier path to a potential conference title collision. Nebraska also had a great showing, 55-19 against Fresno State and they return at #18. The Big Ten suffered more bad losses (Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Iowa) so the rest of the conference saw their schedules get even easier.

Missouri kept the SEC at 7 representatives on the chart as Florida drops off (due to needing three overtimes to beat Kentucky). The Tigers belted UCF 38-10 and also gained a bit from Georgia's power rating dropping. The Bulldogs loss to South Carolina demoted them enough that they are expected to lose to Auburn, which puts them at 10-2 straight up, and around 9-3 projected. Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and LSU gained partly from strong wins, partly because Georgia is a potential SEC title game opponent; none of the three plays the Bulldogs in the regular season.

Duke and Utah join the top 25—Duke because they beat Kansas badly enough that they're looking like a solid ACC Coastal contender again, and Utah because so many other borderline contenders bit the dust last week—including USC, who looks more more beatable in the Pac-12 South now. But neither teams has much in the way of good odds; they'll need a big upset here and there to get that.

Next week is very important for Northern Illinois' odds. They play Arkansas, and it's the only game we expect them to lose. If they beat the Razorbacks they'll get partial credit for a projected undefeated season and make the jump into the top ten—where they'd wait along with BYU and Marshall to see if the season is going to be wild enough to clear out a space for one of them.

The most important game next week is Clemson at FSU, which is make or break for the Tigers. Lose as expected and their #14 ranking becomes a ceiling, but if they win they bust through that ceiling and Florida State becomes just another team scrambling for a bid.

Week 3 Power Rating: Baylor at #1, Mississippi & Oklahoma replace Georgia, USC in top ten

Note: This is an update to our pre-season rankings, using a Bayesian/ELO adjustment to the ratings before the non-biased Strength power rating becomes reliable.

The race for #1 got settled this weekend as Baylor broke last week's 4-way near-tie by beating Buffalo by slightly more than expected while last week's #1 team, Oregon, didn't crush Wyoming by enough and #4 Alabama "only" beat Southern Miss by 40 points. With #2 Florida State idle, that meant the Bears rose to the top.

Those games weren't significant but more important results happened in the rest of the top ten as Georgia was defeated by South Carolina and USC fell to Boston College in a big upset. Both teams fell out of the top ten and replacing them were Mississippi, who beat UL-Lafayette 56-15, and Oklahoma who beat Tennessee 34-10.

Further down in the top 25 Ohio State made a big comeback from #23 to #14 after blanking Kent State 66-0, while Florida fell an equal number of positions to #24 after needing triple overtime to beat Kentucky.

SportsRatings Week 3 Power Rating Bayesian/ELO update

Last Week	Current Rank	Team	Record	Rating Change
3	1	Baylor	3-0	+0.83
2	2	Florida St	2-0	0.00
1	3	Oregon	3-0	-1.38
5	4	Auburn	2-0	0.00
4	5	Alabama	3-0	-2.38
11	6	Mississippi	3-0	+1.23
10	7	Texas A&M	3-0	-0.89
6	8	BYU	3-0	-2.38
8	9	UCLA	3-0	-1.30
13	10	Oklahoma	3-0	+1.04
7	11	Georgia	1-1	-2.07
12	12	LSU	3-0	-1.35
9	13	Southern Cal	2-1	-4.44
23	14	Ohio State	2-1	+5.14
20	15	Missouri	3-0	+2.50
16	16	Michigan St	1-1	0.00
18	17	Stanford	2-1	+0.16
17	18	Utah	2-0	0.00
14	19	Notre Dame	3-0	-2.66
19	20	Clemson	1-1	0.00
25	21	Mississippi St	3-0	+2.19
27	22	TCU	2-0	+2.52
30	23	Oklahoma St	2-1	+3.64
15	24	Florida	2-0	-2.62
21	25	Wisconsin	1-1	0.00
26	26	West Virginia	2-1	+0.98
32	27	South Carolina	2-1	+2.07
22	28	Arizona	3-0	-1.87
42	29	Nebraska	3-0	+4.69
28	30	Arizona St	3-0	-0.33
35	31	Washington	3-0	+1.35
43	32	Arkansas	2-1	+3.03
29	33	Maryland	2-1	-0.98
31	34	Louisville	2-1	-0.70
36	35	Texas	1-2	+1.30
24	36	Virginia Tech	2-1	-3.81
49	37	Houston	1-2	+2.38
33	38	Indiana	1-1	-2.41
39	39	Oregon St	2-0	0.00
41	40	Kansas St	2-0	0.00
40	41	Boise St	2-1	-0.29
34	42	Pittsburgh	3-0	-2.35
59	43	Duke	3-0	+3.90
53	44	Marshall	3-0	+1.49
55	45	Kentucky	2-1	+2.62
44	46	California	2-0	0.00
48	47	Virginia	2-1	+0.70
56	48	Cincinnati	1-0	+3.07
38	49	Michigan	2-1	-1.75
46	50	North Carolina	2-0	0.00
67	51	Syracuse	2-0	+5.59
50	52	Memphis	1-1	0.00
37	53	Minnesota	2-1	-2.52
52	54	Navy	2-1	-0.23
61	55	Washington St	1-2	+2.52
65	56	East Carolina	2-1	+3.81
51	57	Tennessee	2-1	-1.04
54	58	Northern Illinois	3-0	-0.33
58	59	Miami FL	2-1	+0.89
47	60	Central Florida	0-2	-2.50
45	61	UTSA	1-2	-3.64
62	62	Northwestern	0-2	0.00
63	63	Penn State	3-0	+0.11
69	64	Nevada	2-1	+1.87
60	65	Iowa	2-1	-1.81
74	66	Boston College	2-1	+4.44
57	67	Georgia Tech	3-0	-2.64
71	68	Iowa St	1-2	+1.81
66	69	Colorado St	2-1	-0.14
70	70	San Diego St	1-1	0.00
81	71	North Carolina St	3-0	+4.94
64	72	Texas Tech	2-1	-3.03
78	73	Bowling Green	2-1	+2.41
68	74	Toledo	1-2	-3.07
73	75	Temple	1-1	0.00
77	76	Utah St	2-1	+0.09
86	77	Louisiana Tech	2-1	+4.47
76	78	Rutgers	2-1	-0.11
72	79	Illinois	2-1	-1.35
83	80	Colorado	1-2	+0.33
97	81	Florida Atlantic	1-2	+3.83
88	82	W. Kentucky	1-2	+0.61
82	83	Middle Tennessee St	2-1	-0.61
92	84	Rice	0-2	+0.89
101	85	Tulane	1-2	+3.31
75	86	Fresno St	0-3	-4.69
93	87	Hawaii	0-2	+0.67
91	88	San Jose St	1-1	0.00
85	89	LA-Lafayette	1-2	-1.23
100	90	Wyoming	2-1	+1.38
104	91	Georgia Southern	1-2	+2.64
79	92	North Texas	1-2	-4.48
87	93	Old Dominion	2-1	-2.21
96	94	Akron	1-1	0.00
89	95	UAB	2-1	-2.41
95	96	Arkansas St	1-2	-0.89
98	97	Wake Forest	1-2	-0.09
94	98	South Alabama	1-1	-2.19
84	99	Kansas	1-1	-3.90
80	100	Central Michigan	2-1	-5.59
109	101	LA-Monroe	2-1	+1.35
105	102	Texas St.	1-1	+0.23
90	103	Ball St	1-2	-4.39
107	104	Army	1-1	-0.16
102	105	Ohio U.	1-2	-1.49
112	106	Purdue	1-2	+2.66
99	107	Vanderbilt	1-2	-2.08
106	108	Air Force	2-1	-0.47
110	109	Connecticut	1-2	+0.29
111	110	Buffalo	1-2	-0.83
115	111	UNLV	1-2	+0.33
114	112	Appalachian St	1-1	0.00
116	113	UTEP	2-1	+0.15
108	114	Tulsa	1-2	-3.83
103	115	South Florida	1-2	-4.94
120	116	Western Mich.	1-1	+2.68
117	117	New Mexico	0-2	0.00
118	118	SMU	0-2	0.00
123	119	Massachusetts	0-3	+2.08
113	120	Kent St	0-3	-5.14
122	121	Miami OH	0-3	+1.75
124	122	Southern Miss	1-2	+2.38
121	123	Troy	0-3	-1.44
125	124	FIU	1-2	+2.35
119	125	Idaho	0-2	-2.68
126	126	Georgia St	1-2	+0.47
128	127	Eastern Michigan	1-2	+2.21
127	128	New Mexico St	2-1	-0.15

Like Ohio State, Nebraska redeemed itself somewhat after a poor week 2, jumping from #42 to #29 after crushing Fresno State 55-19. But not every Big Ten team bounced back this week; Minnesota was manhandled by TCU 30-7 and fell 16 spots to #53, and Michigan was hardly impressive in beating Miami of Ohio 34-10. The Wolverines fall another 11 spots to #49.

Arkansas beat Texas Tech 49-28 and moved up 11 to #32. Virginia Tech fell 12 spots to #36 after being upset by East Carolina, while Houston also reversed their trajectory from previous weeks, up 12 to #37 after losing at #8 BYU 33-25. Kentucky also moved up despite losing, as they took Florida to triple overtime in the Swamp; the Wildcats jumped from #55 to #45.

Duke jumped 16 to #43 after demolishing Kansas 41-3, and Syracuse almost mirrored that by moving from #67 to #51 after beating Central Michigan 40-3. A couple of promising "Group of Five" conference members took a dive: Central Florida lost to Missouri 38-10 and fell 13 spots to #60, while Texas-San Antonio dropped 16 after losing big at Oklahoma State, 43-13.

Georgia Tech lost all of its huge lead over Georgia Southern but recovered to win at the end, 42-38. But the Yellow Jackets dropped 10 to #67, while the Eagles were up 13 to #91. Meanwhile Tech's ACC teammate North Carolina State rose 10 spots to #71 after beating South Florida 49-17.

Florida Atlantic recovered all of the ground they lost in their awful debut vs. Nebraska, rising 16 to #81 for trouncing Tulsa 50-21. Tulane, who lost to Tulsa in overtime in week 1, rebounded with a strong win over Southeastern Louisiana, 35-20.

Fresno State started at #61 in our pre-season rankings but three straight terrible losses to Power Five conference foes have them at #86, down another ten spots after their loss to the Cornhuskers. Wyoming lost almost as badly to Oregon but they rise ten to #90. North Texas ran into a hot Louisiana Tech and lost 42-21; they fall 13 spots to #92.

The MAC had some bad times this week, even relative to expectations. Central Michigan dropped more than any other team, falling from #80 to #100 after losing 40-3 to Syracuse. And Ball State lost to Indiana State 27-20; the Cardinals fall 13 spots to #103.

Kansas was another big loser, dropping 15 to #99 after the Duke blowout loss. South Florida also lost big to an ACC team (NC State) and dropped from #103 to #115.

Early Week 3 Upsets: East Carolina tops Virginia Tech; Louisville, Indiana, Maryland fall

East Carolina 28, Virginia Tech 21

Virginia Tech's new-found College Football Playoff odds take a big hit with their 28-21 loss to East Carolina. The Hokies were #7 on the most recent chart but their odds of going 12-0 just went to zero. The Pirates jumped to a 21-0 lead but Virginia Tech came back to tie it late; however, one last explosive drive put the Pirates on top.

Virginia 23, Louisville 21

Louisville's chances in the ACC were a lot lower; we saw them as a 9-3 team but they had a slim chance, putting them #24 on the Playoff odds chart. But after losing 23-21 to Virginia the Cardinals are an also-ran in the race. Virginia—and UCLA, who narrowly beat the Cavaliers—are looking better now.

Bowling Green 45, Indiana 42
West Virginia 40, Maryland 37

Indiana had an opportunity to take advantage of the Big Ten's weakness but instead they showed weakness of their own, losing to Bowling Green 45-42 on a last-minute TD by the Falcons. The Big Ten's woes continued as Maryland fell to West Virginia 40-37. The Mountaineers were another team that gave a top-ranked foe trouble in the first week against Alabama, and they got a last-second field goal to win it.

Baylor temporarily takes over #1 spot after 63-21 Buffalo blowout

Prior to Saturday's action, Baylor moved to #1 in our power ratings after clubbing Buffalo 63-21 on Friday night, breaking the near-four-way tie that existed at the top of our rankings. Or rather, it's still a near-four-way tie, but Baylor is the team du jour at the top:

#  Team              Rec     Rating
1. Baylor            2-0     70.95
2. Oregon            2-0     70.28
3. Florida St        2-0     70.22
4. Alabama           2-0     70.03

With Florida State idle, the pre-season #1 will have to settle for being #2 at best prior to next week's game vs. Clemson. The other teams—Alabama and Oregon—have opportunities to gain the #1 spot if they are able to overwhelm their overmatched opponents to a greater degree than Baylor did.

Obviously these early games have less "meaning" in that a touchdown here or there is a lot more random. Does Oregon score 42 or 69 against Wyoming? Will Alabama win 35-0 vs. Southern Miss and say that's good enough, or push for 56? But the best teams tend to win their games effortlessly, and any sign of struggle or not getting on track against a very inferior opponent is evidence that maybe they aren't #1.

The real difference between these teams will be revealed when they start facing good competition regularly. Originally #1 and #2, Florida State and Alabama both already had a test against Power Five conference opponents, and both looked beatable. Pre-season #4 Oregon had a big win over a top 25 team, beating Michigan State 46-27. So now all three are basically tied.

Pre-season #6 Baylor has skated by with wins over SMU, Northwestern State, and Buffalo. They ease into their conference schedule with Iowa State next week, then Texas and TCU follow. The only top 25 AP teams they face this year are Oklahoma and Kansas State, but they do face both of the teams that gave Alabama and FSU such fits on opening week, West Virginia and Oklahoma State.

So there will be ample opportunity for comparison. Last year Baylor looked unbeatable early against 2nd- and 3rd-rate competition, but they were down a notch in conference play and finally lost a game. This year Baylor again looks fantastic after three games but will have to prove they deserve to hold the #1 spot; then they might be more than the "temporary" #1.

BYU suffers in-game hangover vs. Houston, still wins 33-25

BYU needed a big win on the national stage to propel their College Football Playoff odds and they didn't get it despite winning 33-25.

The seeds for the letdown were almost perfectly sown: The huge Texas win got them sky-high for their first home game of the season, and jumping to a 23-0 lead made them get sloppy and make several pointless mistakes that let Houston back in the game.

Two Houston drives were assisted by BYU defensive personal foul penalties on 3rd down, leading to a touchdown and a field goal for Houston. One was roughing the passer and should have been a helmet-targetting ejection; the other was the stupid "hit the QB when he's already down" play. Then late in the 1st half BYU was driving and had a long pass completion with seconds left but the receiver stayed inbounds and got the ball stripped, setting up a a monster hail-Mary from John O'Korn that put Houston within 8 at 23-15 at the half (Houston missed both extra points).

Taysom Hill had a great game (200 passing yards, 160 rushing) but BYU needed to win by 20+ to look impressive, especially considering Houston already lost by 20 at home to UTSA. They were well on their way at 23-0 but lost focus, which is not unexpected given the double-whammy of following a huge win and building a big lead. They're lucky they had that lead because Houston didn't give up, and by the waning moments BYU clearly just wanted the game to end and take the victory.

In the pre-season where we ranked Houston #16 this was a key matchup for a long-shot playoff spot. But Houston had already dropped to #49 after two disappointing outings, including a 27-7 home loss to UTSA. Given the pre-season rankings this win would have looked great for BYU, but now it looks like a step back.

BYU had risen to #6 in our adjusted power ratings for week 2, and they'll probably drop back to around #10 depending on what other teams do. Their odds of going 12-0 were 42.1% before the game, and although the win gets another game out of the way they drop to a 36.9% chance to run the table the rest of the way.

This really doesn't change BYU's outlook that much; they were a longshot even as they held the #9 spot in our College Football Playoff odds chart. The problem is they don't have much means of rising very far above that position. They're expected to go undefeated, but with no big names to beat on their schedule, they need blowout wins to pass the "eye test" and make big upward moves in the polls to legitimize their cause. This game didn't do it.

It looks like BYU's playoff odds will fall only slightly, from 13.6% to around 13% and they'll probably hold their #9 spot. But the game made it more likely that, even if they go undefeated, they'll still be holding that #9 position come December.

Louisiana Tech's offense is back—Bulldogs beat North Texas 42-21, appear bowl-bound

Proving that last week's 48 points against UL-Lafayette wasn't a fluke, Louisiana Tech drubbed North Texas 42-21 Thursday night.

Two years ago the Bulldogs had one of the nation's best offenses in a 9-3 season, but that was nowhere to found in 2013's 4-8 campaign. Now in the 2nd year under Skip Holtz things are starting to look more like 2012.

The opener against Oklahoma wasn't a fair test and they lost, 48-16. But Cody Sokol started to hit his stride in the 4th quarter, and that carried over to the Louisiana-Lafayette game, which is the biggest surprise score of the year so far, a 48-20 win when they were a 16-point underdog, 20 points by our ratings.

Tonight they were a 6-point underdog by our ratings, a 3.5 point dog by Vegas. North Texas was coming off a huge win over SMU and playing at home. But Cody Sokol was 20 of 31 for 5 touchdowns and the rout was on.

Like last week's win, this victory changes Louisiana Tech's outlook for the better. In the pre-season we projected another 4-8 year for the #114 Bulldogs with just a 14% chance of making a bowl game:

LA Tech 2014 pre-season forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Oklahoma	1%	L
9/6	Sat	@	UL-Lafayette	9%	L
9/11	Thu	@	*North Texas	24%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	Northwestern State	79%	W
9/27	Sat	@	Auburn	1%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*UTEP	71%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*UTSA	21%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Southern Miss	51%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Western Kentucky	55%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*UAB	42%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*Old Dominion	14%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Rice	35%	L
Straight up: 4-8  Cume: 4-8  Bowl eligible: 14%

After the stunning win over Louisiana-Lafayette, they looked like a bowl team after just two games, climbing to #86:

LA Tech 2014 forecast post-week 2
8/30	Sat	@	Oklahoma	0%	L
9/6	Sat	@	UL-Lafayette	100%	W
9/11	Thu	@	*North Texas	36%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	Northwestern State	93%	W
9/27	Sat	@	Auburn	1%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*UTEP	78%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*UTSA	24%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Southern Miss	78%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Western Kentucky	59%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*UAB	42%	L
11/22	Sat	@	*Old Dominion	42%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Rice	61%	W
Straight up: 6-6  Cume: 6-6  Bowl eligible: 69%

In addition to the ULL win, they "gained" the Rice game in the final, and every loss got closer. Both straight up and by cumulative estimate they looked like a 6-6 team, and had a nearly 70% chance to make a bowl game. But almost all of that improvement was based on one game, which could have been a fluke. The North Texas game set up a great litmus test against another "hot" team, and they passed with flying colors.

LA Tech 2014 forecast post* week 3
8/30	Sat	@	Oklahoma	0%	L
9/6	Sat	@	UL-Lafayette	100%	W
9/11	Thu	@	*North Texas	100%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Northwestern State	96%	W
9/27	Sat	@	Auburn	2%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*UTEP	85%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*UTSA	33%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Southern Miss	86%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Western Kentucky	69%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*UAB	53%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Old Dominion	53%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Rice	71%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 95%

Note that these estimates are only "post" the first game of week 3; other teams' performances could change these numbers, but this is the basic idea: Louisiana Tech will probably move up to around #77 in our power ratings, and now seems almost certain to make a bowl game, and could be 9-3 just like 2012. The cumulative estimate sits just below 7 1/2 wins as the UAB and Old Dominion games still look like tossups with LA Tech favored by about a point in each.

But no matter the specifics, the Bulldogs look like a big turnaround story in 2014. We certainly didn't predict it as you can see from the pre-season chart above, though we did predict the first turnaround (from 9-3 to 4-8) back in the 2013 pre-season. Call us pessimists, but when wrong we admit it!

Week 3 preview: Who's #1? Oregon, FSU, Baylor, and Alabama jockey for position this weekend

Until the Strength power rating becomes more viable in mid-season, we refer to our adjusted pre-season ratings. This week as we noted there is a near-tie among the top four teams—Oregon, Florida State, Baylor, and Alabama:

#  Team              Rec     Rating
1. Oregon            2-0     70.28
2. Florida St        2-0     70.22
3. Baylor            2-0     70.12
4. Alabama           2-0     70.03

With that kind of closeness and only a few games played, any additional information will help break the tie, if even temporarily. And that information can come from any type of game—even games against terrible opposition, where these teams are favored to waltz to blowout wins.

Well, that's exactly what we have in store for these teams this coming Saturday. Three of the four play, and all are favored by 35 or more points. That means that any team that doesn't live up to its billing will suffer, and only those that mercilessly beat down their hapless opponent will maintain their lofty position.

#1 Oregon vs. #100 Wyoming (line: Oregon by 44)

The Ducks rose to #1 by a hairs-breadth due to their win over Michigan State, but to keep it they'll have to really put the screws on Wyoming, who is 2-0 themselves. Will they have a letdown after their big win or continue to coast? We favor the Ducks by 42, so they don't have to beat the spread to maintain their rating, but they might have to in order to fend off Baylor or Alabama. The Cowboys have scored 17 points in each of their two home games so far, and held their opponents to 12 and 13 points. We don't foresee a letdown, but we think once they get ahead they'll let off the gas and Wyoming will score a few points.
Prediction: Oregon 49, Wyoming 17

#3 Baylor at #111 Buffalo (line: Baylor by 35)

Last year the score was Baylor 70, Buffalo 13. But that was in Waco, where last year's team was most powerful (they were less so on the road), so the 35-point spread doesn't seem so unreasonable. However, Buffalo hasn't done well this year so far; they lost to Army last week and beat Duquense by just 10 points, giving up 47 and 28 points. Our power rating has the Bears a 37-point favorite and it could be worse unless the Bulls get their act together by Friday night.
Prediction: Baylor 56, Buffalo 14

#4 Alabama vs. #124 Southern Miss (line: Alabama by 49)

Yikes. If Alabama wants to claim our #1 spot, they'll have to win by at least 54 points on Saturday. It's not out of the questions as the Eagles have been even worse than we figured so far, but blowing teams out by 8 touchdowns isn't Alabama's style (they beat Georgia State 45-3 and UT-Chattanooga 49-0 last year). They rely on the run (especially with 2 new quarterbacks) and eat up more clock than Oregon and Baylor. So the Tide get their rating points by beating good teams and via defense; they're the least likely to hang 70 on an opponent. Even playing a team this awful is a losing move for Alabama. Mississippi State already beat Southern Miss 49-0, so perhaps that will give Saban and co. some incentive to pile on the points. We doubt it, though maybe they'll match it.
Prediction: Alabama 49, Southern Miss 0

Playoff picture: Georgia, Oklahoma, and UCLA

Three of the four teams nearly tied at #1 are in our projected playoff, but Alabama isn't—instead Georgia is favored for the other slot. Oklahoma and UCLA are trying to take projected spots away from Baylor and Oregon. What do they have to do to prove they're more deserving, even if it is only week 3?

#7 Georgia at #32 South Carolina (line: Georgia by 7)

While Alabama probably won't do enough to pass Georgia in the projected SEC title hunt, the Bulldogs have to worry about beating South Carolina, and beating them enough to hold their edge on the Tide. We favor Georgia by 9 points, and if they fall short of that our projection may tilt back to Alabama. In real-world terms, the Bulldogs just have to win, though after Texas A&M destroyed the Gamecocks a narrow win won't look great. However, any result in the W column will be good enough come December.
Prediction: Georgia 41, South Carolina 31

#13 Oklahoma vs. #51 Tennessee (line: Oklahoma by 21)

The pollsters and oddsmakers have a higher opinion of the Sooners than we do, but that makes Oklahoma's task—taking a top-four spot in our playoff projections—easier, as we favor them by just 18 points. They play Baylor at home so to pass the Bears they shouldn't have to beat Tennessee by too much more than three touchdowns. But will Tennessee fold like they've done in the recent past against Oregon? And how will Bob Stoops' fued with the SEC motivate his players and the Volunteers? Undoubtedly there will be a result that allows both conferences to claim victory and the argument will continue.
Prediction: Oklahoma 45, Tennessee 35

#8 UCLA at #36 Texas (line: UCLA by 8)

This is the toughest game to pick. UCLA has been awful in most respects, first on offense against Virginia and then on defense against Memphis. Do they finally put it all together against Texas or falter on both sides of the ball and finally get upset? And for Texas, what did their 41-7 loss to BYU mean, and will there be a hangover? The Bruins lost their projected playoff spot to Oregon, whom they possibly play twice this year. They have to beat Texas by more than 11 points to get the regular-season home game vs. the Ducks leaning back toward them. The Pac-12 title game will take more. But with Texas' morale probably in the toilet—even worse than it was last year, since so much hope came attached the new coach—the Bruins, like Ole Miss last year, should be able to replicate BYU's performance.
Prediction: UCLA 42, Texas 20

College Football Playoff: Michigan State, Big Ten still alive; Penn State back from dead

The reports you've heard about Michigan State and the Big Ten being eliminated from the College Football Playoff are woefully premature.

The Spartans and indeed, every other team from the Big Ten are all still alive. Most of the conference's teams' chances took a hit last Saturday, but the real mistake was thinking that the Big Ten had a good chance to be in the Playoff in the first place.

In our most recent College Football Playoff odds chart Michigan State took only a small dent from their loss to Oregon, falling from 7th most likely to 8th-most likely to make the CFP. Almost all of this loss was already factored in; the game was a bit worse than expected for MSU, and the rest of the conference was weakened by all the losses, but it also made the Spartans' path to a 1-loss finish easier.

Let's be clear: the Playoff Committee, which includes field-stormer Pat Haden, is portrayed as a paragon of college football wisdom and impartiality, but in reality it's likely they will evaluate teams exactly the way the AP sportswriters do: primarily by overall wins and losses and whether that team is from a power conference or not. The Big Ten may have taken a hit but it is still a power conference.

Power conference teams with 1-loss will ALL be in major contention come December. Even power conference teams with 2 losses will have a chance depending on how many 0- and 1-loss teams are out there. Only Northwestern has 2 losses, and if they run the table they could still have a chance. No one from the Big Ten is eliminated yet.

Sure, they took a step back on Saturday, which means that a 2-loss team from the Big Ten is likely to take a backseat to a 2-loss team from the SEC. But that was the case before Saturday already; not as much changed as people seem to think.

While Michigan State's odds fell by just 2.8 percentage points, other teams were hurt more. Michigan's 31-0 loss sent their odds from 0.4% to almost (but not quite) 0%; Nebraska's near-loss dropped their odds from 0.6% to 0.5%; Maryland fell from 1.1% to 0.6%; and Ohio State's dropped from 8.8% to 0.4%. The latter three teams all fell from the Playoff odds chart top 25. Indiana and Minnesota actually gained a bit, helped by the weakness of their future competition.

Overall the Big Ten's summed odds dropped from 41.3% to 28.8%. So even before Saturday the Big Ten didn't appear likely to have a representative in the 4-team field. And this week's odds are essentially the same as their pre-season odds of 28.6%.

College Football Playoff total odds by conference:

Rank	Conference	Summed odds (all teams >0.5%)	No. of teams w/odds >0.5%	Week 1 odds	week 0 odds
1	ACC	94.8%	5	88.2%	84.2%
2	SEC	89.2%	7	89.9%	93.5%
3	Big Twelve	82.2%	3	80.9%	87.1%
4	Pac-12	73.9%	3	64.9%	69.7%
5	Big Ten	28.6%	3	41.3%	28.8%
6	Ind.	20.6%	2	17.0%	13.4%
7	CUSA	3.8%	1	13.1%	16.1%
8	MAC	3.4%	1	--	--
	Total	396.5%	25

The ACC is the most likely team to have a rep, mostly due to Florida State (64.3%) but Virginia Tech's upset of Ohio State made the Hokies a contender with a pretty easy path in the ACC until they'd hit FSU in the title game. The SEC is #2 and have the most teams (7) with a reasonable chance. Their odds have been, and will remain, pretty constant as the pecking order there is established. At #3, the Big Twelve. Again, someone is going to emerge the champ of that conference, and they'll probably be in the playoff. The same goes for the Pac-12 whose teams will knock each other off as the weeks pass.

The Big Ten has been a constant #5 from the pre-season. The highest-ranked Big Ten team in our Pre-season Top 128 was Michigan State at #15—hardly the sign of a conference expected to make the 4-team playoff. Ohio State was #17, and even before losing Braxton Miller was had them just 8th. But as a power conference, the Big Ten winner is always going to be in the hunt, even if they're expected to be the odd-conference-out.

Who is really "out" of the College Football Playoff?

So how many teams are really "out" completely? First off, three teams are ineligible for the post-season due to being new to the FBS (Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Old Dominion), while Idaho and Penn State were banned for other reasons. With Penn State's ban being lifted, that means 124 teams are in contention for the 4-team playoff.

Major conference teams with 0, 1, or 2 losses have a shot at being in the "final four" based on previous years. Non-power conference teams that go undefeated also have a shot, and even 1-loss teams could have a prayer under the right circumstances. So in week two the only teams eliminated are those non-power-conference teams that are 0-2 (along with the ineligible teams above). So here is the complete list of teams that have an absolute 0% shot at making the playoff:

• Appalachian State (1-1)
• Florida Atlantic (0-2)
• Fresno State (0-2)
• Georgia Southern (1-1)
• Hawaii (0-2)
• Idaho (0-1)
• Kent State (0-2)
• Massachusetts (0-2)
• Miami (Ohio) (0-2)
• New Mexico (0-2)
• Old Dominion (1-1)
• SMU (0-2)
• Troy (0-2)
• Tulane (0-2)

With 14 teams out of the race, that makes 114 other teams still in the hunt, even if only 25 teams have a more than 1 in 200 shot.

Penn State's Bowl Eligibility odds: From 0% to 82% in one day

In other Big Ten news, Penn State's bowl ban was lifted, making the Nittany Lions bowl "eligible" in the sense that they are now eligible to be eligible. In the pre-season we calculated their theoretical bowl odds as 40%, meaning we didn't think they'd make it even if they were allowed to.

But we've changed our tune since, for two reasons.

One, Penn State has been much better than we expected (our expectations were low). We had the Lions favored in just four games and projected to finish 5-7. After their upset win over Central Florida and a strong defensive performance in beating Akron 21-3, the Lions are up from #73 pre-season to #63.

Two, the Big Ten is hurting. Across the board almost every team did poorly on Saturday, and now Penn State looks like a 7-5 team. We favor them against Rutgers and Northwestern, the latter due largely to the Wildcats' poor play. Overall we put their bowl odds at 82%.

That could increase if they continue to play better, which is possible because team morale will get a huge boost from the ban being lifted. We still don't think they'll be showing up on our playoff odds chart, but with the rest of the Big Ten faltering, you never know...

College Football Playoff Odds, week 2 update: Oregon in, UCLA out

Sometimes it's hard to know what a formula will do. Last week we guessed that Oregon had little to gain from an expected win over Michigan State, but a bigger-than-expected margin and another terrible performance by UCLA made the Ducks our favorite to win the Pac-12, and that rocketed them into the #2 spot on our Playoff Odds Chart with a 56.4% chance to make the "final four."

Florida State is still the most likely to gain entry at 64%, but that's down from 77% last week and 83.5% in the pre-season. Their odds of going 13-0 have fallen from 66.4% to just 23.9%. Baylor is still above 50% while Georgia (idle last week) dips below 50% but holds the #4 spot ahead of Alabama (30.2%). The Bulldogs have an easier schedule than the Tide and are a very slim favorite to win the SEC championship game in Atlanta. Oklahoma is #6 again, still expected to lose a close game to Baylor that would decide the Big Twelve.

Virginia Tech storms the rankings at #7 after upsetting Ohio State on the road. The Hokies are now favored in every game going forward until the ACC championship game (presumably against FSU). Last week they had 3 likely losses and projected to around 8-4; after beating the Buckeyes they project to nearly 10-2.

We were right about one thing, that our system wouldn't punish Michigan State much if they lost to Oregon. Even the 19-point loss only drops the Spartans' playoff odds from 24.1% to 21.3%. It helped that the Big Ten did such a faceplant Saturday; now the path is even clearer for a conference championship for the Spartans. They have a 5% chance of ending up 12-1, but since they're favored to win every game we factor that in, too. The loss to Oregon wasn't bad enough that it couldn't be excused later in the season; the question is whether the Big Ten's weakness will also be excused.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds chart, post-week 2 (9/07/2014)

Last week	9/7 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	9/7 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	AP Rank
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	64.3	-12.4	2-0	12	0	10.9	1.1	23.9%	1
8	2	Oregon	56.4	+42.2	2-0	12	0	10.4	1.6	8.8%	2
2	3	Baylor	51.3	-2.5	2-0	12	0	10.6	1.4	19.5%	8
3	4	Georgia	46.3	-4.3	1-0	12	0	10.0	2.0	4.3%	6
5	5	Alabama	30.2	-1.5	2-0	12	0	9.7	2.3	2.8%	3
6	6	Oklahoma	29.9	+4.3	2-0	11	1	9.8	2.2	6.4%	4
--	7	Virginia Tech	22.7	+22.4	2-0	12	0	9.7	2.3	1.2%	17
7	8	Michigan St	21.3	-2.8	1-1	11	1	9.1	2.9	5.3%	13
10	9	Brigham Young	13.6	+2.0	2-0	12	0	11.2	0.8	42.1%	25
17	10	Southern Cal	9.3	+6.9	2-0	11	1	9.7	2.3	2.1%	9
4	11	UCLA	8.2	-40.1	2-0	11	1	9.3	2.7	1.6%	12
14	12	Notre Dame	7.0	+1.6	2-0	10	2	8.8	3.2	0.8%	11
12	13	Wisconsin	6.7	0.0	1-1	11	1	9.1	2.9	4.9%	18
15	14	Clemson	5.8	+0.4	1-1	10	2	8.7	3.3	1.6%	23
16	15	Auburn	5.4	+1.7	2-0	10	2	9.1	2.9	1.0%	5
9	16	Marshall	3.8	-9.3	2-0	12	0	10.6	1.4	8.1%	34
--	17	Northern Illinois	3.4	+3.2	2-0	11	1	10.0	2.0	5.1%	NR
19	18	Texas A&M	3.1	+1.9	2-0	10	2	9.2	3.8	0.8%	7
18	19	Mississippi	1.9	+0.2	2-0	8	4	9.1	2.9	0.6%	14
23	20	LSU	1.4	+0.8	2-0	9	3	8.7	3.3	0.3%	10
13	21	Pittsburgh	1.3	-4.8	2-0	10	2	9.0	3.0	0.3%	40
21	22	TCU	1.0	-0.1	2-0	9	3	8.0	4.0	0.2%	32
--	23	Florida	0.9	+0.8	1-0	7	4	7.1	3.9	0.2%	29
--	24	Louisville	0.7	+0.3	2-0	9	3	8.3	3.7	0.1%	21
--	25	Indiana	0.6	+0.3	1-0	8	4	7.9	4.1	0.1%	NR

Dropped Out: #11 Ohio State (1-1), #20 Maryland (2-0), #22 Nebraska (2-0), #24 Mississippi State (2-0), #25 Texas (1-1)

Others receiving "votes": Maryland (2-0), Missouri (2-0), Nebraska (2-0), Ohio State (1-1), Minnesota (2-0), Utah (2-0), Arizona (2-0)

BYU got a bit of recognition for beating Texas 41-7 as they appeared at #25 in the AP poll, but the brunt of the analysis tended to focus on Texas. The Cougars gained just one spot here as the win was expected, but their odds of winning out jumped to 42%. Their soft schedule is still the enemy, especially if Texas doesn't recover well.

The shakeup in the Pac-12 was precipitated much more by UCLA than by Oregon's win or USC beating Stanford. The Bruins looked awful on defense as Memphis scored 35 points and were a threat to win thoughout the 2nd half. Before that game they were favored to beat Oregon in both matchups (regular season game at UCLA, Pac-12 championship in Santa Clara) but now the Ducks are a slight favorite even in Los Angeles. USC has an easier path from here and has a better overall chance now; the Trojans gained almost 7 percentage points while UCLA lost 40 to fall to #11.

Notre Dame was expected to beat Michigan; that they beat them down 31-0 was not expected, and the Irish see their odds jump a bit as they rise to #12. They still face USC and FSU which keeps their odds muted at just 7%, but the opportunity is there.

In "Group of Five" news, Marshall took a tumble from #9 to #16 as their long odds became longer. The reason is their tepid performance in the first two weeks, which has moved UTSA ahead of them in our power rating, which means the Herd are no longer favored to go 13-0. Meanwhile Northern Illinois upset Northwestern; now the Huskies are expected to go 12-1 which puts them on the map, though not quite really in the mix of teams with a true shot. Beating Arkansas in two weeks would move them nearer to that area.

Not much changed for the SEC this week. Auburn moves up a spot to #15 despite being #5 in our power rating as their schedule is too tough to expect a great season, and the same goes for lesser teams Texas A&M, Mississippi, LSU, and Florida who enters at #23.

Virginia Tech's ascendance doesn't affect 14th-place Clemson, who doesn't play them this season, but Pittsburgh now has an extra loss on their slate and falls from 13th to 21st. Louisville enters at #24.

And poking back in at #25 is Indiana. The Hoosiers didn't play Saturday so their rating didn't change, but boy did their schedule get a lot easier! Their playoff odds doubled to nearly 1% as Big Ten teams Maryland, Nebraska, and Ohio State dropped off the chart.

Week 2 Power Rating: Oregon, FSU, Baylor, Alabama in 4-way logjam at top

Note: This is another update to our pre-season rankings, using a Bayesian/ELO adjustment to the ratings before the non-biased Strength power rating becomes usable.

Though Florida State started with a big lead in our pre-season rankings it only took two weeks for a new number one to overtake the Seminoles. Due to FSU's disappointing play and Oregon's big 46-27 victory over Michigan State, the Ducks are our new #1 team—but it's very tight.

Oregon's lead is just 6/100 of a point, and they're only 0.25 ahead of #4 Alabama. Here is the actual rating breakdown among the top four teams:

1. Oregon (70.28)
2. Florida State (70.22)
3. Baylor (70.12)
4. Alabama (70.03)

If Alabama had been allowed to finish out the final minutes of their 41-0 win over Florida Atlantic, they might be sitting at #1 right now.

Auburn is a relatively distant #5, while BYU jumps to #6 after their beatdown of Texas. The Pac-12 picture changed a lot with Oregon's ascendance and UCLA's continued struggles, and the Bruins fall to #8, still one spot ahead of USC whose win over Stanford wasn't far off expectations. Texas A&M edged up to complete the top 10.

Notre Dame is the big mover within the top 25 (from #23 to #14), and their 31-0 win knocked Michigan out of the ballpark from 25 to 38. Michigan State and Stanford suffered little for their losses, but Ohio State fell from #14 to #23; they are still a spot ahead of the team that beat them 35-21 at home due to the weight that the pre-season ratings retain. Virginia Tech jumps 15 spots to #24 and the fact that they beat the Buckeyes suggests they have further to rise, or OSU further to fall.

Clemson and Missouri rise into the top 25 this week too, while Maryland fell out due to their close call with South Florida and Texas fell out due to their 41-7 loss to BYU. The Longhorns were a hopeful #24 last week but a shamed #36 this week.

Last Week	Current Rank	Team	Record	Rating Change
4	1	Oregon	2-0	+1.35
1	2	Florida St	2-0	-5.69
5	3	Baylor	2-0	+1.58
2	4	Alabama	2-0	-0.02
6	5	Auburn	2-0	+1.46
10	6	BYU	2-0	+5.28
7	7	Georgia	1-0	0.00
3	8	UCLA	2-0	-3.32
8	9	Southern Cal	2-0	+0.68
11	10	Texas A&M	2-0	+4.42
9	11	Mississippi	2-0	+1.98
15	12	LSU	2-0	+4.02
16	13	Oklahoma	2-0	+3.73
23	14	Notre Dame	2-0	+4.86
21	15	Florida	1-0	+2.78
12	16	Michigan St	1-1	-1.35
20	17	Utah	2-0	+2.47
13	18	Stanford	1-1	-0.68
36	19	Clemson	1-1	+5.82
28	20	Missouri	2-0	+3.25
18	21	Wisconsin	1-1	-1.12
19	22	Arizona	2-0	-0.38
14	23	Ohio State	1-1	-4.40
39	24	Virginia Tech	2-0	+4.4
17	25	Mississippi St	2-0	-3.03
47	26	West Virginia	1-1	+6.94
26	27	TCU	1-0	0.00
33	28	Arizona St	2-0	+1.65
22	29	Maryland	1-1	-3.37
27	30	Oklahoma St	1-1	-1.13
41	31	Louisville	2-0	+2.9
29	32	South Carolina	1-1	-0.85
32	33	Indiana	1-0	0.00
37	34	Pittsburgh	2-0	+0.22
30	35	Washington	2-0	-2.25
24	36	Texas	1-1	-5.28
34	37	Minnesota	2-0	-2.01
25	38	Michigan	1-1	-4.86
38	39	Oregon St	2-0	-1.00
43	40	Boise St	1-1	+0.51
42	41	Kansas St	2-0	-0.31
31	42	Nebraska	2-0	-2.95
59	43	Arkansas	1-1	+3.86
50	44	California	2-0	+1.1
46	45	UTSA	1-1	+0.38
40	46	North Carolina	2-0	-2.03
49	47	Central Florida	0-1	0.00
56	48	Virginia	1-1	+1.24
35	49	Houston	1-1	-4.13
62	50	Memphis	1-1	+3.32
45	51	Tennessee	2-0	-1.13
52	52	Navy	1-1	+0.43
44	53	Marshall	2-0	-1.59
63	54	Northern Illinois	2-0	+2.76
55	55	Kentucky	2-0	-0.52
60	56	Cincinnati	0-0	0.00
64	57	Georgia Tech	2-0	+1.32
51	58	Miami FL	1-1	-2.00
57	59	Duke	2-0	-1.01
48	60	Iowa	2-0	-2.88
54	61	Washington St	0-2	-2.49
53	62	Northwestern	0-2	-2.76
66	63	Penn State	2-0	+0.48
58	64	Texas Tech	2-0	-2.65
69	65	East Carolina	1-1	+0.85
67	66	Colorado St	1-1	-0.51
68	67	Syracuse	1-0	0.00
61	68	Toledo	1-1	-3.25
74	69	Nevada	2-0	+2.49
78	70	San Diego St	1-1	+2.03
73	71	Iowa St	0-2	+0.31
75	72	Illinois	2-0	+0.03
76	73	Temple	1-1	-0.43
77	74	Boston College	1-1	-0.22
71	75	Fresno St	0-2	-2.47
65	76	Rutgers	2-0	-5.44
72	77	Utah St	1-1	-2.54
79	78	Bowling Green	1-1	-0.49
96	79	North Texas	1-1	+4.82
88	80	Central Michigan	2-0	+2.92
84	81	North Carolina St	2-0	+1.22
86	82	Middle Tennessee St	1-1	+2.01
81	83	Colorado	1-1	-2.40
80	84	Kansas	1-0	-3.81
70	85	LA-Lafayette	1-1	-7.95
114	86	Louisiana Tech	1-1	+7.95
82	87	Old Dominion	1-1	-1.22
85	88	W. Kentucky	1-1	-0.03
100	89	UAB	1-1	+3.03
101	90	Ball St	1-1	+2.88
83	91	San Jose St	1-1	-1.46
94	92	Rice	0-1	0.00
91	93	Hawaii	0-2	+1
95	94	South Alabama	1-0	+1.14
99	95	Arkansas St	1-1	+1.13
92	96	Akron	1-1	-0.48
97	97	Florida Atlantic	0-2	+0.02
87	98	Wake Forest	1-1	-2.06
89	99	Vanderbilt	0-2	-1.98
98	100	Wyoming	2-0	-0.31
93	101	Tulane	0-2	-1.32
103	102	Ohio U.	1-1	+0.52
113	103	South Florida	1-1	+3.37
116	104	Georgia Southern	1-1	+5.31
105	105	Texas St.	1-0	0.00
108	106	Air Force	1-1	+0.31
110	107	Army	1-0	+0.8
90	108	Tulsa	1-1	-3.73
104	109	LA-Monroe	2-0	-0.71
107	110	Connecticut	1-1	-1.19
109	111	Buffalo	1-1	-0.80
106	112	Purdue	1-1	-2.92
111	113	Kent St	0-2	-1.14
119	114	Appalachian St	1-1	+4.34
102	115	UNLV	1-1	-4.36
117	116	UTEP	1-1	+2.65
115	117	New Mexico	0-2	-1.65
112	118	SMU	0-2	-4.82
120	119	Idaho	0-1	+0.71
118	120	Western Mich.	0-1	0.00
122	121	Troy	0-2	+1.01
121	122	Miami OH	0-2	-1.29
125	123	Massachusetts	1-1	+2.4
123	124	Southern Miss	1-1	-1.53
124	125	FIU	1-1	+0.37
126	126	Georgia St	1-1	-1.86
128	127	New Mexico St	2-0	+1.86
127	128	Eastern Michigan	1-1	-2.78

Playing FCS teams can carry a risk or a reward. West Virginia beat Towson 54-0 and made another big move, up 21 to #26 and now from #57 pre-season they are almost in the top 25. Louisville gained another 10 spots to #31 after beating Murray State 66-21 while Nebraska fell from 31 to 42 after barely beating McNeese State at home. Arkansas' 73-7 beatdown of Nicholls State moved them from #59 to #43.

Meeting in the middle: Houston started the year at #16, Memphis at #70. After just two games only 1 spot separates the Cougars and the Tigers. Houston fell a further 14 spots despite crushing Grambling 47-0, and Memphis rose 12 spots after losing to UCLA 42-35. In power ratings the old adage is true, it's not whether you win or lose it's how you play the game (and how tough the opposition was).

More woe to the Big Ten: Iowa falls 12 spots to #60 after beating Ball State 17-13; Northwestern drops 9 to #62 after losing to Northern Illinois; and Rutgers drops 11 after beating Howard 38-25.

How bad is SMU? The Mustangs lost to North Texas 43-6, who last week lost to Texas 38-7, who this week lost to BYU 41-7. SMU falls to #118 while the Mean Green rise 17 places to #79.

Two more power rating quirks: when using biased systems (those that retain pre-season ratings as a starting point) you get some oddities, and this week we see three. Ohio State ended up exactly one spot above Virginia Tech; that Louisiana-Lafayette (down 15 to #85) is still a spot ahead of the Louisiana Tech (up 18 spots) team that beat them 48-20; and that New Mexico State (#127) remains a spot below Georgia State after beating them on the road. You don't want to overweight the results of just two games, but in these cases you just wish the numbers had flipped the two teams in question. In non-biased systems these things wouldn't happen unless there's a really good reason; here there is none.

UAB is proving to be a much better team than we expected, and they've jumped from #114 to #100 to this week's #89. Last week Ball State fell from #93 to #101 after a win, but regained all of that and more from a close loss to Iowa this week. Georgia Southern's 83-point performance took them from #116 to #104, while Tulsa's 52-7 loss to Oklahoma dumped them from #90 to #108. UNLV was another big loser, falling from #102 to #115 after beating Northern Colorado by a point; the Rebels started the year as our #90 team.

 

Week Two Best performances: BYU, Louisiana Tech; Texas A&M the top surprise this season

Week Two was full of great performances; these were the best according to our power ratings:

1. BYU 41, Texas 7: The Cougars wiped out Texas in Austin, a week after Texas smoked a decent North Texas team 38-7 (North Texas beat SMU 43-6 today). People are going to focus on how bad Texas might be but they should be asking how good BYU is.
2. Texas A&M 73, Lamar 3: Lamar is an FCS team but a 70-point win is a 70-point win. Lamar was about as good last year as UAB.
3. Baylor 70, Northwestern State 6: Another FCS win makes the list, but this one was at least good for showing that Baylor's offense can function without Bryce Petty.
4. Oregon 46, Michigan State 27: The Ducks pulled away to win but struggled in the middle period when the Spartans scored 20 straight points. The end result is pretty impressive though.
5. LSU 56, Sam Houston State 0: Another FCS triumph, but the Bearkats recently played for the FCS title twice (losing to North Dakota State both times). Compare this result to Nebraska vs. McNeese State.

Here are the top five performances relative to expectations:

1. Louisiana Tech 48, Louisiana-Lafayette 20: By far the most stunning result was this one; we figured ULL to win by 20 at home, making this a near 7-touchdown swing. The oddsmakers were almost as shocked as ULL was a 15.5 or 16 point favorite.
2. West Virginia 54, Towson 0: Towson is not a bad team; they were 13-3 and were runner-up to North Dakota State for the FCS championship. We expected perhaps a two-touchdown win for the Mountaineers; following the tough game they gave Alabama, this big shutout win is a good sign for the team.
3. Clemson 73, South Carolina State 7: SC State isn't Towson, but we figured the Tigers would win by 31 points or so, and they more than doubled that.
4. Georgia Southern 83, Savannah State 9: Everyone beats up on Savannah State, it's true, but usually it's FSU, Miamia, or Oklahoma State. Georgia Southern was in the FCS last year and they won by 74 points yesterday. We figured 49-7 or so. Coupled with their near-upset of NC State, the Eagles are off to a good start.
5. BYU 41, Texas 7: Our power rating suggested a 2-point win; the oddsmakers a 1-point victory. Needless to say, the Cougars surpassed everyone's expectations.

...and the 5 worst performances relative to expectations:

1. Louisiana Lafayette 20, Louisiana Tech 48: The Ragin' Cajuns might have been looking ahead to their big game against Mississippi, or got overconfident as big favorites...or maybe they're just not going to be very good this year.
2. Florida State 37, The Citadel 12: When you see other teams winning effortlessly by 70 points, this really stands out. As the #1 team, we would have expected the Seminoles to rack up 8 or 9 touchdowns and the defense to pitch a shutout.
3. Rutgers 38, Howard 25: Rutgers-Howard should be an actor, not a football game, but the Scarlet Knights regularly play the FCS school. They dominated early and led 31-7 but let the Bison rack up some points in the 2nd half. We figured on a 46-point margin but Rutgers didn't even make it there on offense.
4. Texas 7, BYU 41: As much as we're giving BYU credit, Texas has to take a lot of the blame for this stinker.
5. Michigan 0, Notre Dame 31: In this case, Michigan deserves more blame than the Irish deserve credit. The Wolverines were awful and it could have been a touchdown worse at the very end. Notre Dame almost paid Michigan back for the 38-0 thrashing in 2007; the Irish went 3-9 that year.

Surprising teams: The biggest upside surprise teams over the first two weeks.

1. Texas A&M Aggies (2-0): won @South Carolina 52-28, vs. Lamar 73-3. The Aggies not only proved they'll be alright without Johnny Manziel, but their first two performances suggest they are SEC contenders and probably a top ten squad.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers (1-1): lost vs. Alabama 33-23, beat Towson 54-0. Most of their opponents will fall between these two in quality, but the Mountaineers showed they can hang with anyone. Until they play some teams of normal quality we can't say whether they'll be a top 25 team or not, but they should be back in a bowl game this year.
3. UAB Blazers (1-1): beat Troy 48-10, lost at Mississippi State 47-34. The Blazers dominated the Trojans and then played a respectable game vs. the Bulldogs. No one's putting them in the top 25 but they've proven they don't belong in the bottom 25 where we had them in the pre-season.
4. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-1): lost at Oklahoma 48-16, beat Louisiana-Lafayette 48-20. What Oklahoma did to them they did to UL-Lafayette. The first game went pretty much as expected while the 2nd game was a huge turnaround vs. the spread.
5. New Mexico State Aggies (2-0): beat Cal Poly 28-10; won at Georgia State 34-31. The Aggies were a distant #128 in our pre-season rankings, so outperforming wasn't hard. But they're 2-0 now after handling Cal Poly and beating Georgia State on the road. They've made up the gap and aren't in last place anymore, and they'll rise into the top 100 if they keep this up.

...and the teams that have done the worst, relative to expectations, the first two weeks:

1. Houston Cougars (1-1): lost vs. UTSA 27-7; beat Grambling 47-0. We overrated the Cougars big time so they were due for a fall, but we didn't imagine it would be so fast. They lost to UTSA in their home opener and even the Grambling shutout diminished their status (Grambling is comparable to Savannah State). We put Houston in our pre-season top 25 but they might actually sink to the bottom 25 if these two games are an accurate reflection.
2. Florida State Seminoles (2-0): beat Oklahoma State 37-31, The Citadel 37-12. With expectations as high as our pre-season rankings were for the Seminoles it would be hard to live up to them, but FSU has underperformed markedly in the first two games. They're playing more like an "others receiving votes" team than a repeat national championship candidate.
3. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (1-1): beat Southern 45-6, lost to Louisiana Tech 48-20. The first game went as expected, the second one didn't. That was enough to call ULL a disappointment thus far, as a 2-0 start was counted on to add intrigue to their games against Ole Miss and Boise State.
4. Vanderbilt Commodores (0-2): lost to Temple 37-7, Mississippi 41-3. Vandy might be the most disappointing team in most peoples' minds; the only reason they aren't higher on this list is that we had lowered our expectations for them already, ranking the Commodores #78 in the pre-season. Even so, we expected them to beat Temple and give Ole Miss some kind of challenge playing at home.
5. UNLV Rebels (1-1): Lost at Arizona 58-13, beat Northern Colorado 13-12. Not sure which is worse, the beatdown at Arizona or the 1-point win at home vs. Northern Colorado. Combined, they paint a picture of a team that will struggle to meet our 5-win projection in their 13-game schedule.

 

Group of Five Report: Big wins for BYU, Northern Illinois boost longshot playoff odds

BYU beat Texas and Northern Illinois beat Northwestern, and both teams boosted their odds to make the inaugural College Football Playoff, which are naturally slim since they are not members of Power Five conferences.

BYU 41, Texas 7

BYU improved their odds with a 41-7 crushing of Texas in Austin. We expected a BYU win but nothing like this. After a slow start and a 6-0 lead at halftime the Cougars exploded for 28 3rd-quarter points and coasted to the victory.

The Cougars were 10th in our Week One Playoff Odds report, but we've noted that it's going to be very hard for BYU to make any headway. As Power Five teams in front of them lose, they'll be replaced by other Power Five teams. The only way the Cougars can gain is to by dominant wins that make waves; this win is one such victory and people will be talking about the possibility of BYU going undefeated and what that would mean.

Texas was 25th on the Playoffs chart last week and could have made a big move with a win. Instead there are going to be big doubts about Charlie Strong's approach on both offense and defense. But the focus should instead be on BYU, our pre-season #8 team, and how good they might be.

Northern Illinois 23, Northwestern 15

The Huskies are a much longer longshot than BYU, but by beating the Wildcats they erased one of their two probable losses. Now they look like an 11-1 team that should win the MAC title; that puts them one step away from an undefeated season so they'll probably be in the top 25 of our College Football Playoff Odds chart tomorrow.

The next challenge for NIU is Arkansas on the road. Even if they win that, however, they'll be without a marquee victory to hang their hat on. They'll need a lot of teams to lose before they're seriously in the discussion, but any undefeated team will garner a mention.

Northwestern falls to 0-2 and their bowl eligibility odds are now well below 50%, down from 90% pre-season.

Louisiana Tech 48, Louisiana-Lafayette 20

ULL was another small-conference team with slim odds but big hopes. With Ole Miss and Boise State on the schedule, they had a chance to make waves with a few big upsets. Instead, they were upset themselves. 16-point favorites at home, they lost and lost big to Louisiana Tech in the day's biggest stunner. Needless to say their College Football Playoff odds, which were around 0.2% by our account yesterday, are down to around 0.0% now.

The Bulldogs? They're 1-1, and looking like a bowl team (probably 6-6) after starting at 14% bowl odds in our pre-season take.

Disastrous Night for Big Ten as Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan fall

The Big Ten had to prove itself Saturday night but all they proved is that the conference is not among the top few conferences, and can't expect to have a representative in the College Football Playoff.

Oregon won the marquee matchup of the night, pulling away from Michigan State 46-27. The Spartans performed admirably compared to their rival as Michigan was embarrassed 31-0 by Notre Dame. Ohio State completed the trifecta of big-game losses by falling to Virginia Tech at home, 35-21.

The malaise continued down the line as Nothwestern was upset by Northern Illinois 23-15 and Purdue was stunned by Central Michigan. Two top West division teams escaped major upsets as Nebraska needed heroics by Ameer Abdullah for a 31-24 victory, and Iowa needed two 4th-quarter touchdowns to escape Ball State, 17-13. Both were playing at home.

The conference's other wins weren't anything to brag about, either, considering the opposition. Illinois topped Western Kentucky 42-34, while Minnesota beat Middle Tennessee 35-24 and Penn State beat Akron 21-3. The conference's new members struggled as Rutgers held on to top Howard 38-25 and Maryland escaped South Florida 24-17.

Only Wisconsin, who beat Western Illinois 37-3, showed any kind of dominance, though it was against an FCS foe.

Given the conference's woes, Indiana is probably glad they had the week off.

The Big Ten wasn't supposed to be in top form this year, especially after the loss of Braxton Miller knocked the Buckeyes down a few notches. But there was hope that some big early wins could establish the conference as a legit contender to send an emissary to the College Football Playoff. Losses by Wisconsin to LSU and those this weekend have all but ruined that hope. In last week's College Football Playoff Odds we didn't see very good odds for the conference, ranking Michigan State to have the best chance but only 7th best among all schools. After this week those odds, especially for Ohio State, will fall.

The Spartans will still have the best chance, and their odds might not fall too much—they were supposed to lose that game and gave Oregon strong challenge for most of it. By the end of the season if they manage to run the table and win the Big Ten they could still be among the top four teams. After seeing what the rest of the league has to offer, they can't be too unhappy about their chances.

Michigan State - Oregon headlines important games of week 2

By our College Football Playoff projections, week one's most significant games were supposed to be Georgia-Clemson, LSU-Wisconsin, and Ohio State-Navy; instead Texas A&M-South Carolina and UTSA-Houston turned out to be just as important. For week two, we pick five games that could shake up the scene, with an obvious choice at the top.

Game of the Week: Michigan State (1-0) at Oregon (1-0) (6:30pm EDT, Fox)

Here's our rundown: Oregon, #4 in our pre-season top 128 and still #4 after last week's win 62-13 over South Dakota, is #8 in our College Football Playoff rankings. Michigan State, #15 pre-season, #12 last week after beating Jacksonville State 45-7, has jumped to #7 in our playoff odds ranking. That's right: Michigan State has a better chance at making the playoff than Oregon right now, even though we consider Oregon to be a better team and is favored by us to win by about 11 points.

The reason is that Oregon has a tougher schedule ahead including potentially two games with UCLA, and Michigan State has a pretty clear path to the Big Ten title. So even if Oregon wins the game they still won't be too far ahead of the Spartans on the road to the Playoff. But if Michigan State wins? Suddenly they might find themselves in the top four, and Oregon's odds would plummet. In other words, for the Spartans it's high-reward, low-risk, and for Oregon it's low-reward, high-risk. The only way the Spartans really lose is if they're blown out.

It's much like LSU and Wisconsin. Even after beating the Badgers LSU ranks lower in our Playoff odds chart. Wisconsin doesn't appear to have many—or even any—losses ahead, while LSU has the SEC gauntlet to run. Wisconsin and Michigan State are considered the elite in the Big Ten, while Oregon and LSU still have to prove they are at the top of the Pac-12 and SEC.

As for the game itself, everyone has already said it: Oregon's Offense vs. MSU's Defense. And of course it might be decided by how well Oregon's defense and Michigan State's offense play. We have Oregon rated higher and they're at home. We'll assume the Spartans control the tempo—and score—the way Stanford did last year; but Marcus Mariota is healthy and we assume they'll pull it out at home. The oddsmakers have Oregon by 13 points but we think it will be closer.

Prediction: Oregon 26, Michigan State 21

Rematch of the Week: BYU (1-0) at Texas (1-0) (7:35 EDT, Fox Sports 1)

This is the game where Texas is supposed to prove it is "back" against a team that beat it last year. BYU has been reduced to an afterthought as "the opponent" that upset them last year; it's all about the Longhorns. Does this not piss off even the well-mannered Cougars? We think it should. BYU is the better team this year, too, we feel; obviously we think so since we ranked BYU #8 pre-season (now #10) while Texas started at #30 and rose to #24 with a solid 38-7 win over North Texas. Can the Cougars go into Austin and destroy the Longhorns' season again?

They'll have to if they want to maintain their #10 ranking on our Playoff Odds chart. The Cougars are one of the most likely teams to go undefeated (12-0 for them, with no conference affiliation). They have a fairly easy schedule that got easier with the revelation that Houston is not a national power. We give them a 12.6% chance to go 12-0, which gives them a fighting chance to be part of the playoff (11.6% chance as we see it).

Texas ranks 25th in the Playoff picture, since they have a lot of tough games in the Big Twelve as well as the BYU game which we expect to be their first loss. In all the Longhorns still look like a 7-5 team to us. This game is a big opportunity as we see it, but they see it simply as a way to erase last year's woes, and all the woes of the later Mack Brown era; it is a litmus test for the Charlie Strong era. No Texas fan will be as impressed as we would by the Longhorns beating the Cougars; they expect to win, and probably to win big. It's true the team and fans are fired up for revenge but they think last year's win was all about how bad Texas was at stopping the run, not how good at running the ball BYU was and is.

The oddsmakers have BYU a 1-point favorite; our power rating has them a 2-point favorite. Texas has emotion on its side but will be without David Ash, something that didn't work well for them last year. BYU should be able to motivate themselves like UCF did against Baylor.

Prediction: BYU 35, Texas 27

Disappearing Classic of the Week: Michigan (1-0) at Notre Dame (1-0) (7:30 EDT, NBC)

The classic matchup of the two winningest teams in college football is coming to an end. Notre Dame (#33 pre-season, #23 week 1) hosts Michigan (#29 pre-season, #25 now) and the winner gets bragging rights for some time to come. It should be a good one; both teams were impressive in week one against inferior foes; Notre Dame beat Rice 48-17 and the Wolverines topped Western Michigan 52-14.

The Irish jumped to #13 in our Playoff odds picture, but that was due to two tossup games narrowly tilting toward them and if they tilt back their odds would fall (we go by both the odds of winning, and expected straight up win-loss results). Michigan is just outside the top 25. Both teams need this win pretty badly to stay in the College Football Playoff hunt; Notre Dame plays FSU later and though that's an "opportunity" it's probably a loss, and they can't afford to have two. Michigan plays Michigan State and Ohio State later and though they could win both, winning even one is generous.

Notre Dame is a 3 1/2 point favorite by Vegas and we'll go with the home team since that's who has won it most of the time recently.

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Michigan 29

Pac-12 Game of the Week: USC (1-0) at Stanford (1-0) (3:30pm EDT, ABC/ESPN 3)

The way we see it, if USC can get past Stanford then they potentially have smooth sailing until they face UCLA in November. So a win is a big deal for USC's Playoff chances. For Stanford? Even if the Cardinal win this one they still have to face both Oregon and UCLA, so it's not as big of a boost but a loss would sink them further (they are outside the top 25 in our Playoff projections despite ranking 13th in our power rating).

USC had a strong win over Fresno State last weekend (52-13) with their new up-tempo offense hitting on all cylinders, while Stanford's defense pitched a shutout against UC Davis (45-0). We rank USC higher but Stanford is at home which tilts it to them by about 2 points by our power rating. The oddsmakers have the Cardinal a 3-point favorite but maybe USC can make it 2 in a row in the series.

Prediction: USC 24, Stanford 21

ACC-Big Ten Challenge Game: Virginia Tech (1-0) at Ohio State (1-0) (8:00pm EDT, ESPN)

Ohio State has a good chance of making the College Football Playoff by virtue of being one of the top teams in the Big Ten. Virginia Tech has little chance due to being in the same conference as Florida State, whom they're unlikely to get past. Beating Ohio State would greatly increase the Hokies' odds, though. Can they do it in the Horseshoe? Last weekend Virginia Tech beat William & Mary 34-9, about what we expected. Ohio State had trouble with Navy early but pulled away, which we see as a sign that they have some of the kinks worked out without Braxton Miller already.

Prediction: Ohio State 29, Virginia Tech 19

Longshots of the North: Northern Illinois (1-0) at Northwestern (0-1) (3:30pm EDT, Big Ten Network)

Before Northwestern lost Venric Mark they might have had an outside chance to make the playoff, but now it looks like making the postseason at all is going to be their goal. Last week's loss to Cal made that clear. NIU, however, has an outside chance to be a factor. If they get past this game and Arkansas in a few weeks they might run the table again, and a 13-0 Northern Illinois would at least be in the discussion. Right now we don't consider them a factor (they're just outside the top 25 of potential Playoff teams) but a win here would make the unlikely a bit more likely.

We can't tell much about the Huskies after last week's 55-3 win over Presbyterian except that they aren't bad. Northwestern will either have its hangover last a second week, or they'll bounce back this week with a big win. If they end up losing, apply this score instead to the Western Illinois game the following week.

Prediction: Northwestern 56, Northern Illinois 24

 

How good is Texas-San Antonio? UTSA vs. Arizona preview

UTSA's 27-7 road upset of Houston begged the question, is Houston really bad? Or maybe UTSA is really good this year?

We should find out tonight as the Roadrunners host Arizona. That's right—Arizona is traveling to San Antonio for this game, a rare time when a Power of Five conference member deigns to go on the road against an Other Five team.

UTSA will have their hands full tonight, as Arizona was very impressive in their first game against UNLV, winning 58-13, a game which vaulted the Wildcats from #34 (pre-season) to #19 in our updated ratings. UTSA got a big boost of its own, jumping from #73 to #46, but they're still going to be 5 point underdogs (down from pre-season 8 points) in our book. Vegas has the line at 7 points.

It's a pretty big game for both teams. Arizona needs all the pre-conference wins they can get, and right now we have them favored to go 8-4; a win would solidify that while a loss would drop that to 7-5 or worse, and would not be looked on favorably by fans to say the least. UTSA is still an "expansion" team to most.

A win by UTSA would be huge for the program, which has been around for three years and in the FBS for two of those, and hasn't beaten a major college opponent. The win over Houston last week was a big step, and because of it we project them to go 10-2 now. A win tonight puts that at 11-1 and makes the Oklahoma State game the only thing standing between the Roadrunners and an undefeated season.

But let's not get a head of ourselves. In the pre-season we figured Houston to be UTSA's toughest challenge, but clearly that was inaccurate. We don't know how bad (or good) Houston is, but Arizona and Oklahoma State both outperformed expectations last week so obviously the next two weeks are the real challenges.

The most interesting aspect will be Arizona's rebuilt running game vs. UTSA's strong rushing defense. Last year Arizona had Kadeem Carey, who nearly had 2,000 yards, and QB BJ Denker who added almost 1,000. Both are gone, but last weekend it was Terris Jones-Grigsby and Nick Wilson both topping 100 yards, while new QB Anu Solomon netted 50 yards. Meanwhile UTSA held Houston to -26 rushing yards, though -42 came on a botched punt. Still, that's 16 yards on the other 22 plays. This game will be a good test for both teams.

A win tonight by the Roadrunners would be a surprise, but Arizona fans shouldn't complain if the Wildcats only manage a slim victory in front of a fired-up crowd. Anything more and the Wildcats are looking great.

Prediction: Arizona 23, UTSA 21

College Football Playoff Odds, Week 1 update: Georgia In, Bama Out?

Of the three top teams who nearly stumbled last weekend only Alabama pays the price by falling out of the projected top four in our College Football Playoff projections. And it wasn't all the Tide's fault: Georgia's big win over Clemson helped make the Bulldogs the favorite to win the SEC, vaulting them from our projected #6 spot last week to this week's #3. The Bulldogs almost doubled their odds to 50.6% while Alabama's fell by nearly half to 31.7%. Both teams are favored in every game this year and are therefore expected to meet in the SEC title game, which leans to Georgia by a hair; the two may pop back and forth over the next several weeks depending on who has played better in a given game.

Florida State holds onto the #1 spot with over a 3 in 4 chance to make the Playoff. That's down a bit from last week; their odds of going undefeated fell from 66% to 57%, which is telling since they have a game under their belt already. But they still are a huge favorite in every game on their slate. Baylor moved up to #2 though their odds dropped a small amount to sit just over 50%.

UCLA dropped below the 50% mark but at #4 they're still favored to be in the playoff, and still favored in every game this year despite their lackluster showing against Virginia. One game doesn't define a team, but it did ding their rating enough to add some doubt.

Alabama drops to #5, still at 31.7%. It's not inconceivable the SEC could get two teams in, especially if the SEC championship is a close game between two undefeated teams. Oklahoma floats down a notch to #6; they're still expected to be #2 in the Big Twelve. It's much more doubtful that the Big Twelve gets two representatives but the same scenario—a close game between the top two—could make it happen.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Projection post-week one (9/2/2014)

Last week	9/2 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	9/2 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	AP Rank
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	76.7	-6.8	1-0	12	0	11.5	0.5	57.1%	1
3	2	Baylor	53.8	-4.2	1-0	12	0	10.5	1.5	17.9%	10
6	3	Georgia	50.6	+23.2	1-0	12	0	10.2	1.8	5.8%	6
4	4	UCLA	48.3	-9.1	1-0	12	0	9.8	2.2	4.3%	11
2	5	Alabama	31.7	-28.7	1-0	12	0	10.0	2.0	4.5%	2
5	6	Oklahoma	25.6	-2.1	1-0	11	1	9.0	3.0	2.2%	4
11	7	Michigan St	24.1	+15.8	1-0	11	1	9.1	2.9	1.0%	7
9	8	Oregon	14.2	+2.6	1-0	11	1	9.9	2.1	3.3%	3
7	9	Marshall	13.1	-3.0	1-0	12	0	10.8	1.2	17.1%	36
8	10	Brigham Young	11.6	-0.8	1-0	12	0	10.2	1.8	12.6%	35
12	11	Ohio State	8.8	+1.0	1-0	10	2	9.2	2.8	1.5%	8
10	12	Wisconsin	6.7	-2.8	0-1	11	1	8.9	3.1	3.5%	18
--	13	Pittsburgh	6.1	+6.0	1-0	11	1	8.6	3.4	0.1%	46
--	14	Notre Dame	5.4	+5.3	1-0	10	2	7.6	4.4	0.1%	16
21	15	Clemson	5.4	+4.7	0-1	10	2	7.7	4.3	0.1%	23
14	16	Auburn	3.7	+1.6	1-0	10	2	9.0	3.0	0.8%	5
23	17	Southern Cal	2.4	+1.7	1-0	10	2	9.0	3.0	0.8%	14
17	18	Mississippi	1.7	+0.4	1-0	8	4	8.9	3.1	0.5%	15
--	19	Texas A&M	1.2	+1.1	1-0	9	3	8.7	3.3	0.2%	9
20	20	Maryland	1.1	+0.4	1-0	9	3	8.3	3.7	0.3%	n/r
16	21	TCU	1.1	-0.3	1-0	9	3	7.9	4.1	0.2%	33
--	22	Nebraska	0.6	+0.5	1-0	10	2	8.2	3.8	0.1%	19
22	23	LSU	0.6	-0.1	1-0	8	4	8.2	3.8	0.1%	12
25	24	Mississippi St	0.4	0.0	1-0	8	4	8.2	3.8	0.1%	31
--	25	Texas	0.4	+0.2	1-0	7	5	7.2	4.8	0.1%	26

Dropped Out: #13 Houston (0-1), #15 Indiana (1-0), #18 South Carolina (0-1), #19 Navy (0-1), #24 Michigan (1-0)

Others receiving "votes": Louisville (1-0), Michigan (1-0), UTSA (1-0), Stanford (1-0), Minnesota (1-0), Virginia Tech (1-0), Indiana (1-0), Toledo (1-0), Northern Illinois (1-0), Louisiana Lafayette (1-0)

Michigan State becomes the top team in the Big Ten following Wisconsin's loss; they jump from 11 to 7 mostly due to Indiana's poor performance last weekend, as the odds of the Hoosiers beating the Spartans dropped and now Michigan State is favored to win 11 games. That pushed their Playoff Odds up nearly 16 percentage points and put them at #7, one spot ahead of Oregon—their foe this coming weekend. Ohio State moved up a spot while Wisconsin fell from #10 to #12 after their loss, which was expected. The Badgers still are favored to win 11 games and make it to the Big Ten championship game. Indiana, incidentally, dropped off altogether after a poor showing vs. Indiana State tilted several future games against them.

Longshots Marshall and BYU both drop a couple spots after tepid wins diminished their odds to bust the system. The Thundering Herd's odds of going 13-0 fell from 30% to 17%. Houston's big stumble actually increased BYU's odds of going unbeaten but took away what would have been a big win. Houston was at #13 last week but their loss to UTSA wiped them clean off the board. Another non-Power of Five longshot was Navy, but their meager hopes (1% last week) rested heavily on upsetting Ohio State, which didn't happen.

With all the teams dropping off there have to be some new faces, and Pittsburgh and Notre Dame jump in at #13 and #14. Both posted strong wins that moved some games their direction; the Irish could be 10-2 which would put them potentially in the mix, and Pitt is favored to win 11 games after Miami's opening week stumble. Neither has huge odds—6.1% and 5.4%—but it's a start.

Interestingly Clemson jumps 6 spots after their loss to Georgia. The reason is that they are now favored to beat South Carolina in the season finale, after the Gamecocks were crushed by Texas A&M. South Carolina drops out after the upset, while the Aggies enter at #19. Though they now rank #11 in our power rating, they have a tough road ahead including Alabama and Auburn and are projected to be about 9-3. Meanwhile the Tigers slide to #14 in part because the game against the Aggies just got a lot more difficult; another Aggie foe, Mississippi, drops a spot to #18 while Mississippi State is up to #24.

Southern Cal makes a decent move up to #17 after their strong win over Fresno State. TCU, however, drops from #16 to #21, probably because West Virginia became a tougher foe after their showing against Alabama. At this point on the chart the odds are so low that anything can buffet a team around. Note that LSU didn't get any bump from beating Wisconsin mostly because it was expected, but also because their schedule is so full of probable losses—4 in all now that Texas A&M is looking great—that it's hard to see them making it to the Playoff.

And last but not least, two traditional powers make the list: Nebraska, who skewered FAU and saw future opponents Fresno State, Miami, and Northwestern lose, now looks like a possible 10-2 team. Texas still looks about 7-5 but there's hope for a better record, and a 0.4% chance of the CFP for the Longhorns.