UTSA's 27-7 road upset of Houston begged the question, is Houston really bad? Or maybe UTSA is really good this year?
We should find out tonight as the Roadrunners host Arizona. That's right—Arizona is traveling to San Antonio for this game, a rare time when a Power of Five conference member deigns to go on the road against an Other Five team.
UTSA will have their hands full tonight, as Arizona was very impressive in their first game against UNLV, winning 58-13, a game which vaulted the Wildcats from #34 (pre-season) to #19 in our updated ratings. UTSA got a big boost of its own, jumping from #73 to #46, but they're still going to be 5 point underdogs (down from pre-season 8 points) in our book. Vegas has the line at 7 points.
It's a pretty big game for both teams. Arizona needs all the pre-conference wins they can get, and right now we have them favored to go 8-4; a win would solidify that while a loss would drop that to 7-5 or worse, and would not be looked on favorably by fans to say the least. UTSA is still an "expansion" team to most.
A win by UTSA would be huge for the program, which has been around for three years and in the FBS for two of those, and hasn't beaten a major college opponent. The win over Houston last week was a big step, and because of it we project them to go 10-2 now. A win tonight puts that at 11-1 and makes the Oklahoma State game the only thing standing between the Roadrunners and an undefeated season.
But let's not get a head of ourselves. In the pre-season we figured Houston to be UTSA's toughest challenge, but clearly that was inaccurate. We don't know how bad (or good) Houston is, but Arizona and Oklahoma State both outperformed expectations last week so obviously the next two weeks are the real challenges.
The most interesting aspect will be Arizona's rebuilt running game vs. UTSA's strong rushing defense. Last year Arizona had Kadeem Carey, who nearly had 2,000 yards, and QB BJ Denker who added almost 1,000. Both are gone, but last weekend it was Terris Jones-Grigsby and Nick Wilson both topping 100 yards, while new QB Anu Solomon netted 50 yards. Meanwhile UTSA held Houston to -26 rushing yards, though -42 came on a botched punt. Still, that's 16 yards on the other 22 plays. This game will be a good test for both teams.
A win tonight by the Roadrunners would be a surprise, but Arizona fans shouldn't complain if the Wildcats only manage a slim victory in front of a fired-up crowd. Anything more and the Wildcats are looking great.
Prediction: Arizona 23, UTSA 21
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