Florida State had a terrible scare while Oklahoma emerged from a fight looking better than ever, and the Seminoles and Sooners are the top ranked teams on our College Football Playoff chart. They are the only major-conference teams expected to go undefeated and also the only two that are above 50% in Playoff odds.
Florida State probably should have lost to Clemson but pulled off an overtime victory, preventing them from becoming one of many teams on the outside looking in on the Playoff. Instead, the Committee can safely overlook the close call due to the circumstances and argue that a win's a win. And very importantly, FSU kept their top spot in the AP poll, showing that those who follow college football closely haven't demoted the Seminoles for the near-loss. But their odds to win out dip again, this time from 25% to 20%.
Oklahoma's 45-33 victory at West Virginia looks solid in comparison to Alabama's 33-23 neutral field triumph and now the Sooners are our favorite to win the Big Twelve. Baylor is still #1 in our power rating but the Bears might lose a close one in Norman; that's why they fall to #4 at 34% odds. Oregon had a close call of their own at Washington State, winning just 38-31; the Ducks hold their expected Playoff spot but their odds plunge to 42% as their odds of going unbeaten drop.
That still leaves two Big Twelve teams and no SEC teams in the top four like last week. But with only two teams above 50%, and seven more above 20%, there are no official favorites for the #3 and #4 spots. Within those seven teams are two SEC squads at #7 and #9, and four more litter the top 25. The conference's odds are spread out among those teams, adding up to around 65%.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds chart for week 4 (9/21/2014)
Last week |
9/20 Rank |
Team |
Playoff |
% Change +/- |
9/20 Rec |
Projected Record | Odds to win out |
|
|||
| Straight up | Cumulative | ||||||||||
| W | L | W | L | ||||||||
| 1 | 1 | Florida St | 71.2 | -8.0 | 3-0 | 12 | 0 | 10.8 | 1.2 | 20.5% | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | Oklahoma | 58.0 | +20.8 | 4-0 | 12 | 0 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 14.9% | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | Oregon | 42.3 | -25.2 | 4-0 | 11 | 1 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 5.3% | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | Baylor | 34.1 | -26.5 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 17.4% | 7 |
| 10 | 5 | UCLA | 24.1 | +13.8 | 3-0 | 12 | 0 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 2.3% | 11 |
| 11 | 6 | Wisconsin | 23.7 | +15.9 | 2-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 13.5% | 19 |
| 22 | 7 | Georgia | 22.2 | +20.6 | 2-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 7.3% | 12 |
| 24 | 8 | Duke | 21.4 | +20.7 | 4-0 | 12 | 0 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 0.6% | 26 |
| 6 | 9 | Alabama | 21.1 | +2.5 | 4-0 | 11 | 1 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 2.2% | 3 |
| 8 | 10 | Marshall | 14.0 | -0.5 | 4-0 | 12 | 0 | 11.3 | 0.7 | 34.1% | 30 |
| 7 | 11 | Brigham Young | 12.7 | -2.8 | 4-0 | 12 | 0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 31.1% | 20 |
| 17 | 12 | Mississippi | 7.6 | +3.7 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.8% | 10 |
| 9 | 13 | Auburn | 7.5 | -5.9 | 3-0 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.6% | 5 |
| 13 | 14 | Notre Dame | 7.3 | -0.2 | 3-0 | 10 | 2 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.6% | 8 |
| 5 | 15 | Michigan St | 7.0 | -18.1 | 2-1 | 11 | 1 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 3.6% | 9 |
| 14 | 16 | Clemson | 5.6 | -1.1 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 15.0% | 28 |
| 16 | 17 | Texas A&M | 5.4 | +1.4 | 4-0 | 10 | 2 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 1.2% | 6 |
| 15 | 18 | Northern Illinois | 2.7 | -1.6 | 3-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 12.5% | -- |
| -- | 19 | East Carolina | 2.7 | +2.6 | 3-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 19.4% | 23 |
| 19 | 20 | TCU | 1.9 | -0.4 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.5% | 29 |
| 18 | 21 | Nebraska | 1.8 | -0.9 | 4-0 | 10 | 2 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 0.4% | 21 |
| 12 | 22 | Ohio State | 1.2 | -6.5 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 2.9% | 22 |
| 25 | 23 | Utah | 1.0 | +0.6 | 3-0 | 9 | 3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.3% | 31 |
| -- | 24 | Mississippi St | 0.8 | +0.5 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.1% | 14 |
| -- | 25 | Southern Cal | 0.4 | -0.1 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.7% | 18 |
Dropped out: #20 Missouri, #21 LSU, #23 Pittsburgh
Others receiving "votes": Indiana (2-1), Oklahoma State (2-1), Penn State (4-0), Arizona (4-0)
Georgia's 66-0 beatdown of Troy coupled with Auburn's tepid 20-14 win at Kansas State made the Bulldogs again the favorite to win the SEC, bumping the Dawgs back up to #7 and knocking the Tigers down to #13. Alabama gained from their win over Florida but other interlopers jumped them, dumping the Tide to #9. The SEC race will continue to be the most volatile as the conference has so many good teams within a hair's breadth of each other in quality.
Oregon's weakness allowed idle UCLA to regain much of its lost ground; the Bruins are now favored to beat Oregon in Los Angeles but lose to the Ducks in the Pac-12 title game. Wisconsin improved its odds by winning big—68-17 big—over Bowling Green, solidifying the Badgers' chances to run the table the rest of the way and win the Big Ten. This in turn knocked Michigan State from #5 to #15, and Ohio State down from #12 to #22. The Spartans' 73-14 win over Eastern Michigan wasn't enough to keep them the Big Ten favorite, but it was enough to keep them the East favorite over the Buckeyes.
The biggest mover was Duke who jumped from #24 to #8 after beating Tulane 47-13. In and of itself that didn't say much, but the Blue Devils now look like the Coastal Division favorite in the ACC and could win out prior to a meeting with Florida State. Their odds of going 13-0 are tiny (0.6%) but they're narrowly favored to start 12-0 now. ex-#23 Pittsburgh's loss to Iowa opened the door for Duke.
All of this upward activity from Power Five conference members knocked Marshall and BYU down a few rungs, with the Herd ahead at #10 now. BYU's 41-33 home win over Virginia was good but not "potentially top 4 in the nation" good, as they moved up only one spot in the top 25 to #20. Marshall is just outside the AP top 25 after beating Akron 48-17. The polls are the only hope for these teams to rise into the top 4 here; if they go undefeated without poll support (i.e., consensus opinion that they are top teams) then they will hover around #10 the rest of the year.
Clemson wasn't supposed to beat FSU so they don't fall much; they're still favored to go 10-2 but at 1-2 there's no margin for error and an 8- or 9-win season is more likely. Northern Illinois, likewise, wasn't supposed to beat Arkansas but their 52-17 loss was worse than we figured, and that drops their odds of finishing 12-1 significantly. On the other hand Utah was supposed to beat Michigan, and their 26-10 win was stronger than expected. It still only translates into a small bump from #25 to #23 as the pollsters predictably attributed it to the Wolverines' weakness not the Utes' strength.
Mississippi State upset LSU which puts the Bulldogs on the map and kicks the Tigers out. In the end the Tigers almost came back to win so it wasn't the "statement" that it looked like when the score was 34-10, but LSU's weakness helped Mississippi move up along with Texas A&M. Missouri's loss to Indiana made beating the Tigers look easier too, which also helps the Aggies.
East Carolina scored 70 points on North Carolina and now look like they could go 11-1 in the American Athletic Conference; our odds show nearly a 20% chance of doing so. That won't be enough to get them near Playoff consideration but if the polls give them support—they debut at #23 in the AP—the Pirates could move from a very long shot to just a typical long shot. Their schedule softens significantly from here, which makes winning out easier but makes winning Committee hearts and minds unlikely.
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