Sometimes it's hard to know what a formula will do. Last week we guessed that Oregon had little to gain from an expected win over Michigan State, but a bigger-than-expected margin and another terrible performance by UCLA made the Ducks our favorite to win the Pac-12, and that rocketed them into the #2 spot on our Playoff Odds Chart with a 56.4% chance to make the "final four."
Florida State is still the most likely to gain entry at 64%, but that's down from 77% last week and 83.5% in the pre-season. Their odds of going 13-0 have fallen from 66.4% to just 23.9%. Baylor is still above 50% while Georgia (idle last week) dips below 50% but holds the #4 spot ahead of Alabama (30.2%). The Bulldogs have an easier schedule than the Tide and are a very slim favorite to win the SEC championship game in Atlanta. Oklahoma is #6 again, still expected to lose a close game to Baylor that would decide the Big Twelve.
Virginia Tech storms the rankings at #7 after upsetting Ohio State on the road. The Hokies are now favored in every game going forward until the ACC championship game (presumably against FSU). Last week they had 3 likely losses and projected to around 8-4; after beating the Buckeyes they project to nearly 10-2.
We were right about one thing, that our system wouldn't punish Michigan State much if they lost to Oregon. Even the 19-point loss only drops the Spartans' playoff odds from 24.1% to 21.3%. It helped that the Big Ten did such a faceplant Saturday; now the path is even clearer for a conference championship for the Spartans. They have a 5% chance of ending up 12-1, but since they're favored to win every game we factor that in, too. The loss to Oregon wasn't bad enough that it couldn't be excused later in the season; the question is whether the Big Ten's weakness will also be excused.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds chart, post-week 2 (9/07/2014)
Last week |
9/7 Rank |
Team |
Playoff |
% Change +/- |
9/7 Rec |
Projected Record | Odds to win out |
|
|||
| Straight up | Cumulative | ||||||||||
| W | L | W | L | ||||||||
| 1 | 1 | Florida St | 64.3 | -12.4 | 2-0 | 12 | 0 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 23.9% | 1 |
| 8 | 2 | Oregon | 56.4 | +42.2 | 2-0 | 12 | 0 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 8.8% | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | Baylor | 51.3 | -2.5 | 2-0 | 12 | 0 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 19.5% | 8 |
| 3 | 4 | Georgia | 46.3 | -4.3 | 1-0 | 12 | 0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 4.3% | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | Alabama | 30.2 | -1.5 | 2-0 | 12 | 0 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 2.8% | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | Oklahoma | 29.9 | +4.3 | 2-0 | 11 | 1 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 6.4% | 4 |
| -- | 7 | Virginia Tech | 22.7 | +22.4 | 2-0 | 12 | 0 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 1.2% | 17 |
| 7 | 8 | Michigan St | 21.3 | -2.8 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 5.3% | 13 |
| 10 | 9 | Brigham Young | 13.6 | +2.0 | 2-0 | 12 | 0 | 11.2 | 0.8 | 42.1% | 25 |
| 17 | 10 | Southern Cal | 9.3 | +6.9 | 2-0 | 11 | 1 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 2.1% | 9 |
| 4 | 11 | UCLA | 8.2 | -40.1 | 2-0 | 11 | 1 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 1.6% | 12 |
| 14 | 12 | Notre Dame | 7.0 | +1.6 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8% | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | Wisconsin | 6.7 | 0.0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 4.9% | 18 |
| 15 | 14 | Clemson | 5.8 | +0.4 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 1.6% | 23 |
| 16 | 15 | Auburn | 5.4 | +1.7 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 1.0% | 5 |
| 9 | 16 | Marshall | 3.8 | -9.3 | 2-0 | 12 | 0 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 8.1% | 34 |
| -- | 17 | Northern Illinois | 3.4 | +3.2 | 2-0 | 11 | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 5.1% | NR |
| 19 | 18 | Texas A&M | 3.1 | +1.9 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 0.8% | 7 |
| 18 | 19 | Mississippi | 1.9 | +0.2 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6% | 14 |
| 23 | 20 | LSU | 1.4 | +0.8 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.3% | 10 |
| 13 | 21 | Pittsburgh | 1.3 | -4.8 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.3% | 40 |
| 21 | 22 | TCU | 1.0 | -0.1 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.2% | 32 |
| -- | 23 | Florida | 0.9 | +0.8 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 0.2% | 29 |
| -- | 24 | Louisville | 0.7 | +0.3 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 0.1% | 21 |
| -- | 25 | Indiana | 0.6 | +0.3 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 0.1% | NR |
Dropped Out: #11 Ohio State (1-1), #20 Maryland (2-0), #22 Nebraska (2-0), #24 Mississippi State (2-0), #25 Texas (1-1)
Others receiving "votes": Maryland (2-0), Missouri (2-0), Nebraska (2-0), Ohio State (1-1), Minnesota (2-0), Utah (2-0), Arizona (2-0)
BYU got a bit of recognition for beating Texas 41-7 as they appeared at #25 in the AP poll, but the brunt of the analysis tended to focus on Texas. The Cougars gained just one spot here as the win was expected, but their odds of winning out jumped to 42%. Their soft schedule is still the enemy, especially if Texas doesn't recover well.
The shakeup in the Pac-12 was precipitated much more by UCLA than by Oregon's win or USC beating Stanford. The Bruins looked awful on defense as Memphis scored 35 points and were a threat to win thoughout the 2nd half. Before that game they were favored to beat Oregon in both matchups (regular season game at UCLA, Pac-12 championship in Santa Clara) but now the Ducks are a slight favorite even in Los Angeles. USC has an easier path from here and has a better overall chance now; the Trojans gained almost 7 percentage points while UCLA lost 40 to fall to #11.
Notre Dame was expected to beat Michigan; that they beat them down 31-0 was not expected, and the Irish see their odds jump a bit as they rise to #12. They still face USC and FSU which keeps their odds muted at just 7%, but the opportunity is there.
In "Group of Five" news, Marshall took a tumble from #9 to #16 as their long odds became longer. The reason is their tepid performance in the first two weeks, which has moved UTSA ahead of them in our power rating, which means the Herd are no longer favored to go 13-0. Meanwhile Northern Illinois upset Northwestern; now the Huskies are expected to go 12-1 which puts them on the map, though not quite really in the mix of teams with a true shot. Beating Arkansas in two weeks would move them nearer to that area.
Not much changed for the SEC this week. Auburn moves up a spot to #15 despite being #5 in our power rating as their schedule is too tough to expect a great season, and the same goes for lesser teams Texas A&M, Mississippi, LSU, and Florida who enters at #23.
Virginia Tech's ascendance doesn't affect 14th-place Clemson, who doesn't play them this season, but Pittsburgh now has an extra loss on their slate and falls from 13th to 21st. Louisville enters at #24.
And poking back in at #25 is Indiana. The Hoosiers didn't play Saturday so their rating didn't change, but boy did their schedule get a lot easier! Their playoff odds doubled to nearly 1% as Big Ten teams Maryland, Nebraska, and Ohio State dropped off the chart.
Comments