SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten #4; West #1) |
 #20 |
2013 Results |
AP #22 USA #21 | Strength:#15 Success:#32 Overall:#18 |
| Record: 9-4 | Bowl: Lost to S Carolina 34-24 (Capital One) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #14 | USA #14 | Lindy's #14 | Athlon #15 | Steele #24 | ||
| Record: 9-3 | Bowl odds: 99.7% Playoff odds: 10% | ||
The Badgers probably won't be as good as last year, but how far they fall depends on how much their great defense weakens. If it doesn't, they could have one hell of a year.
| Offense 5 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #26 (raw) #27 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #27 (adjusted) |
The running game should be in great shape with Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement the new tandem, and the passing game should...well, who cares about passing anyway?
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #97 (raw) #100 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #24 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #111 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #18 |
Joel Stave (2,494 yards, 22 TDs, 13 int) had a mixed year as Wisconsin QB, with some good moments and others not-so-great. The passing game wasn't very impressive and with the top four receivers gone it looks bleak this season. Jared Abbrederis (1,081 yards, 7 TDs) is the big loss of course, and #2 Jacob Petersen (551) also departs while Alex Erickson (#5 w/127 yards) is the top returnee. The offensive line will probably provide even better protection than last year (16 sacks) but we see Wisconsin's sad passing game getting sadder. Not that it matters as much, since it's not what the offense revolves around. Head coach Gary Anderson recently named QB-turned-WR-turned-safety-turned-QB Tanner McEvoy the starter.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #9 (raw) #8 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #7 (adj.) |
Melvin Gordon (1,609 yards, 12 TDs) chose to return to Wisconsin instead of opting for the pros, but James White (1,444 yards, 13 TDs) is gone. Can Corey Clement (547 yards) fill the void? Well, Clement averaged 8.2 yards per carry to White's 6.5, so it's arguable he can. The offensive line looks stronger, too, as roughly 3.5 starters return between seniors Kyle Costigan and Rob Havenstein, junior Tyler Marz and sophomore Dan Voltz. If Clement is the new White, then who replaces Clement? Solve that and they should match or exceed last year's great numbers.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #3 Pass Defense per-game: #40 Per-attempt: #24 | ||
| Defense 3 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #6 (raw) #5 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #60 | '13 picks: #97 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #11 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #84 | '14 picks: #97 | |
The defense was fantastic last year, every bit as important as the ground game to Wisconsin's success. This year they return just three starters. Will there be enough carry-over to prevent a collapse? The front seven loses all of its starters in the 3-4, so say goodbye to last year's #3 rushing defense. At linebacker alone they lose three of their top four tacklers—#1 Chris Borland, #3 Ethan Armstrong, and #4 Conor O'Neil. #2 Michael Caputo returns to the secondary where three of four starters are back, so the pass defense might even improve, but even there there's bad news as reserve Nate Hammond was lost to injury in the summer and safety Tanner McEvoy moves to quarterback. Despite all of this, we aren't predicting doom for the Badgers. They still have 8 of the top 15 tacklers back and Gary Andersen always had Utah State's D in good shape. Though they won't be a top ten unit any more they might not fall much farther.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Drew Meyer (38.6 average) and co-placekicker Jack Russell (9 of 13 FG) are both back.
- Return Game: Receiver Kenzel Doe averaged 26.5 yards per kickoff return (1 touchdown) and 7.2 per punt return; he's back.
- Turnovers projection: Wisconsin's +7 fumble margin is unlikely to happen in 2014, but Joel Stave should cut down on his interceptions to offset it.
- Injury correction: Wisconsin benefitted from a lower-than-normal injury rate last year, and by definition probably won't do so this year.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #39 2013 Recruiting Rank: #44
Gary Anderson's 2nd recruiting class here isn't really any better than the 1st one, which is unusual. They did lose a couple of players to transfer or DNQ, which lowers their ranking. It still ranks in the middle of the pack for the Big Ten.
2013 Recap
Wisconsin overmatched their first two opponents—UMass and Tennessee Tech—winning 93-0 combined, but they had a tougher time against Arizona State. Still, they would have won if they'd been able to set up a field goal, and Joel Stave's odd knee-down dance didn't make it clear he was down, and the officials messed up the situation further and they lost, 32-30. They rebounded to beat Purdue 41-10 but fell to Ohio State 31-24. For the next six games the Badgers were more or less dominant and were 9-2 when upset by Penn State, 31-24. They lost to South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl, 34-24.
Last year's prediction: We ranked Wisconsin #27—a little low, but not far from where they finished in the polls. We projected an 8-4 season—again, a little low, but game-by-game we had them 10-2. The losses we picked were ASU and OSU, so we had their entire season correct until the Penn State upset. We also correctly predicted they'd have a top ten defense.
2014 Outlook
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Wisconsin 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | @ | LSU | 36% | L | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Western Illinois | 99% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | vs. | Bowling Green | 84% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | vs. | South Florida | 98% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | @ | *Northwestern | 61% | W | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | vs. | *Illinois | 91% | W | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Maryland | 64% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | @ | *Rutgers | 79% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | @ | *Purdue | 95% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Nebraska | 81% | W | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | @ | *Iowa | 61% | W | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | vs. | *Minnesota | 78% | W | |||
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Straight up: 11-1 Cume: 9-3 Bowl eligible: 99.7%
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Sometimes teams are ranked high due to quality, and sometimes it's because people think they're going to win a lot of games because their schedule is easy. I suspect that Wisconsin's pre-season ranking is more due to the latter. Though the Badgers can't really be expected to have a better team than last year, they are bumped up to #14 in both polls.
If Wisconsin hadn't scheduled LSU they would be favored in every game this year. They play the Tigers in Houston, right next door to Louisiana but a world away from Wisconsin so we call it a road game and LSU is favored. But then the expected wins start rolling in, starting with three easy games at home (only Bowling Green is a challenge at all).
In the Big Ten they face Venric Mark-less Northwestern on the road, followed by two more home games that should be wins (Maryland may be a test). Neither Rutgers nor Purdue on the road should stop the Badgers, nor Nebraska or Minnesota in Madison. Iowa in Iowa City might be the biggest test of the Big Ten season.
We call that 11-1 game-by-game, or 9-3 by the cumulative estimate which takes into account chances of being upset in the closer games, and there are a few. But if Wisconsin's defense doesn't collapse, they should be in good shape in the West division and we favor them heavily. They would face either a Braxton Miller-less Ohio State or Michigan State, with decent odds of winning either (though they'd still be an underdog against both). We give them a 10% chance of making the College Football Playoff, mostly because their path is so clear. Even an opening-week loss to LSU doesn't hurt them too much there, and a win would help a lot.
We don't expect 11 straight wins out of this team, since the entire front seven is rebuilt. But the possibility is there, and that has to be exciting for fans since, for all their wins and bowl games, Wisconsin is almost never in the national title hunt even at mid-season.
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