SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC #3; Coastal #1) |
 #38 |
2013 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#45 Success:#34 Overall:#43 |
| Record: 8-5 | Bowl: Lost to UCLA 42-12 (Sun) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #34 | USA #40 | Lindy's #39 | Athlon #27 | Steele #43 | ||
| Record: 8-4 | Bowl odds: 96% Playoff odds: <1% | ||
The Hokies might be a slightly better team this year, and if they win some close games they could have another 10-win season after a 2-year drought.
| Offense 7.5 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #104 (raw) #93 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #89 (adjusted) |
Virginia Tech changes quarterbacks but we don't see any reason to downgrade them, or upgrade them that much, on offense.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #65 (raw) #68 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #88 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #61 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #86 |
Logan Thomas (2,907 yards, 16 TDs, 13 int) never quite lived up to the hype though he had a productive 2013. The Hokies are counting on transfer Michael Brewer (375 yards, 4:0 in 2012 at Texas Tech) to take over, and he'll have a good situation as far as receivers are concerned. Four of the top five are back including #1 Willie Byrn (660 yards), Demetri Knowles (641 yards), and Joshua Stanford (640). Protection wasn't great last year and the line might not improve much on 2013's 33 sacks. But Brewer completed 71% at Texas Tech and production should actually rise.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #113 (raw) #99 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #96 (adj.) |
The Hokies return 2 of their top 4 rushers including last year's #1, Trey Edmunds (675 yards, 10 touchdowns) who is now a sophomore. The offensive line has David Wang, Caleb Farris, and Jonathan McLaughlin back along with one half-time starter. Another half-time starter, Brent Benedict, was back but had to retire due to blood clots. The traditional running game will be stronger but Logan Thomas was the #2 rusher; the QB position probably won't make up those yards, muting the overall gains.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #7 Pass Defense per-game: #1 Per-attempt: #7 | ||
| Defense 5 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #9 (raw) #8 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #6 | '13 picks: #9 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #10 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #15 | '14 picks: #9 | |
Last year's defense was a classic Hokie unit, with top ten rushing defense, pass defense, sacks, and interceptions, and #8 in adjusted scoring allowed. This year the front seven will undoubtedly be weaker as just one starter returns. Luther Maddy (6.5 sacks) is back on the defensive line but Derrick Hopkins (5 sacks), JR Collins (5 sacks), and James Gayle (6 sacks) are gone, so we see the pass rush taking a step down out of the top ten. At linebacker the team's two top tacklers, Jack Tyler (100 tackles) and Tariq Edwards (7.5 tackles for loss) are gone and Kendall Fuller (11 pass breakups) moves to cornerback. The secondary is in much better shape; they lose Kyle Fuller (10 pass breakups) but gain Kendall from LB and have everyone else back including Brandon Facyson (5 interceptions). Despite all the losses up front we don't see the D falling very far out of the top ten as they can build on their lockdown pass defense.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Punter AJ Hughes (44.1 average) is back while main placekicker Cody Journell (10 of 16 FG) is gone. Two other kickers who combined for 5 of 7 FG are back but the job is up for grabs this year.
- Return Game: Demetri Knowles (21.8 yard average on kickoff returns) and Kyshoen Jarrett (5.3 on punts) are both back; they each had a touchdown return in 2012.
- Turnovers projection: We foresee very little difference in turnover margin for 2014.
- Injury correction: Virginia Tech as a team had an exactly average injury profile, so we make no adjustment at all.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #21 2013 Recruiting Rank: #31
Frank Beamer brought in a top 25 level recruiting class this year, and it ranks among the top teams in the ACC. This will be Beamer's 28th year as head coach; after 8 straight years of double-digit wins the last two years have been somewhat disappointing at 7-6 and 8-5.
2013 Recap
The Hokies opened with a loss to Alabama, who scored their points almost exclusively on defense and special teams in winning 35-10. But six wins later the team was in good shape, even if they weren't dominant wins as the Hokies won with defense, not offense. Hence the 13-10 loss to Duke that wasn't the defense's fault at all. The offense scored a reasonable 27 and 24 in losses to Boston College and Maryland, and exploded for 42 against Miami. But the D was what beat Virginia, 16-6. And even the defense couldn't help against UCLA as the Hokies lost 42-16.
Last year's prediction: We weren't far off with our #52 ranking and our #93 scoring offense prediction was exactly right. We saw a big improvement in the defense but they exceeded our expectations. And our 6-6 projected record was a couple of games short. Game-by-game we only got 6 of 12 picks correct. That's the trouble with a defense-based team—the games are all close and the winner hard to predict, and four of the games we missed were decided by a touchdown or less.
2014 Outlook
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Virginia Tech 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | vs. | William & Mary | 93% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | @ | Ohio State | 25% | L | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | East Carolina | 78% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | vs. | *Georgia Tech | 69% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | vs. | Western Michigan | 98% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | @ | *North Carolina | 43% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Thu | @ | *Pittsburgh | 53% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Thu | vs. | *Miami FL | 59% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Boston College | 84% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | @ | *Duke | 52% | W | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | @ | *Wake Forest | 79% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Fri | vs. | *Virginia | 74% | W | |||
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Straight up: 10-2 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 96%
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Virginia Tech should have a good year with a shot at getting back to a 10-win season, but it will probably take a bowl win to do that. We show the Hokies going 8-4 but the game-by-game schedule suggests it could be even a bit better as most of their "losses" are close.
We have the Hokies beating William & Mary, then losing on the road to Ohio State (even without Braxton Miller). If all goes well they'll have three more wins at home over East Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Western Michigan. Then things get tricky. North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Miami are all pretty close games; the former looks like a loss, the latter a win, and Pitt basically a tossup. Boston College, Wake Forest, and Virginia should be wins and Duke is another tossup. That's eight wins and two tossups, plus another close loss, meaning a 10- or 11-win season is not hard to imagine.
Even if they lose all the close ones the Hokies should still be around 7-5, so there isn't much danger of missing a bowl game. The variability seems to be on the upside, and since we have the Hokies ranked at the top of the Coastal division they could be in the ACC Championship Game. Of course that means playing Florida State, a game in which we don't give them much chance. But between that game and the Ohio State game Virginia Tech has the opportunity to become a player in the national championship race.
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SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
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