SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Utah Utes (Pac-12 #7; South #4) |
 #24 |
2013 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#27 Success:#36 Overall:#33 |
| Record: 5-7 | Bowl: None | ||
| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #65 | Athlon #54 | Steele #48 | ||
| Record: 6-6 | Bowl odds: 71% Playoff odds: <1% | ||
Utah finished 5-7 but was nearly in the top 25 in our Strength power rating; they only have to get a little bit better to be a top 25 team in 2014, making them our first surprise team of the year.
| Offense 6 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #67 (raw) #32 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #12 (adjusted) |
Ex-Wyoming coach Dave Christensen is the new offensive coordinator, and he has the offense running at a very fast pace which should amp up scoring.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #64 (raw) #43 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #52 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #22 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #52 |
Travis Wilson (1,827 yards, 16 TDs, 16 int) had quite a ride in the last year with his health but he's back now, as is backup Adam Schulz (1,008 yards, 6:5). Top receiver Dres Anderson (1,002 yards) is back; the rest of the top four is gone but they do have two others who topped 150 yards and Kenneth Scott who had 360 in 2012 (medical redshirt '13). With Wilson back and the offense getting a lot more reps the passing game should be pushed into the top 25.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #73 (raw) #49 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #43 (adj.) |
Bubba Poole (607 yards) led last year and he's back; in all, three of the top four ground gainers return. JUCO Devontae Booker joins the group this year after not qualifying last season due to a slight problem with a forged transcript. The offensive line beings back starters Siaosi Aiono, Junior Salt, and Jeremiah Poutasi, all juniors. The faster offense should insure that the running game improves, too.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #8 Pass Defense per-game: #86 Per-attempt: #44 | ||
| Defense 6 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #76 (raw) #32 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #2 | '13 picks: #121 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #43 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #4 | '14 picks: #118 | |
Utah had a very strong rushing defense last year but gave up a lot of passing yards, though the per-attempt figures weren't horrible. On pass plays they had fantastic pressure but didn't get turnovers (just 3 interceptions). Trevor Reilly (100 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss) departs from the defensive line which loses three starters in all. But they'll be in good shape at linebacker, at least by midseason when both Jacoby Hale (6.5 sacks) and Miami transfer Gionni Paul are healed and in the lineup. The secondary loses Keith McGill (12 pass breakups) but Brian Blechen who redshirted in 2013 is back. In all the defense might be about the same, but the added tempo on offense will avail opponents more opportunity to score themselves.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Both kicker Andy Phillips (17 of 20 field goals) and punter Tom Hackett (43.4 average) are back.
- Return Game: Punt fielder Goeffrey Norwood (8.6 average) is back along with two main kickoff returners.
- Turnovers projection: Wilson and Schulz had 21 picks between them and that should fall quite a bit, especially as Oklahoma transfer Kendall Thompson is available as another alternative. The defense will almost certainly have more than 3 picks themselves, too.
- Injury correction: The offense in particular had a lot of injuries and they should have better luck with that this year.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #61 2013 Recruiting Rank: #42
Recruiting this year is in the lower half of the Pac-12, and that's with counting Devantae Booker as part of this year's group. Booker was part of last year's class but didn't qualify—it was found that he and his previous school had changed some transcript details. He made up the courses needed and officially enrolled in the spring. Kyle Whittingham has been at Utah 9 seasons but things have been going south gradually—from 13-0 in 2008 to 10-3, 10-3, 8-5, 5-7, and 5-7. Will the Ute administration tolerate three losing seasons in a row?
2013 Recap
Utah beat Utah State, 30-26, and crushed Weber State, but fell to Oregon State in overtime, 51-48. They beat BYU and lost to UCLA before they had their big win, upsetting Stanford 27-21. At 4-2 they were looking good, but they lost 5 straight to take them out of Pac-12 contention first and bowl eligibility 2nd. A win over Colorado was their consolation in another disappointing 5-7 season.
Last year's prediction: We ranked the Utes #60 and projected a 4-8 record, which doesn't sound too far off at first blush—give them the Stanford upset and it's pretty much correct, right? But Utah ended up ranked #27 in our Strength power rating—beating Stanford and losing three games by 7 or fewer points, and playing a tough schedule (10 bowl teams) did that. And our game-by-game picks only favored the Utes in 2 games, so it's clear we underranked them by quite a bit.
2014 Outlook
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Utah 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/28 | Thu | vs. | Idaho State | 100% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Fresno State | 78% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | @ | Michigan | 42% | L | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | vs. | *Washington State | 69% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | @ | *UCLA | 9% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Thu | @ | *Oregon State | 46% | L | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | vs. | *USC | 47% | L | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | @ | *Arizona State | 40% | L | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon | 27% | L | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | @ | *Stanford | 32% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona | 66% | W | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | @ | *Colorado | 79% | W | |||
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Straight up: 5-7 Cume: 6-6 Bowl eligible: 71%
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Though we rate Utah pretty high, that doesn't mean we think they're going to have a particularly great season as they have a very tough schedule. We do think the odds are with them in getting to a bowl game, but if you count up the games they're favored in you might not get to six wins unless you give them some of the tossup games.
The problem isn't the first game, as Idaho State (3-9 in the FCS last year) is a freebie. But the other 11 games might be the toughest 11 any team faces. Carr-less Fresno State at home should be a win, but then the Utes travel to Michigan for a game that is winnable but not easy by any means. With luck, Utah could be 3-0 here and that would make their post-season hopes shine a lot brighter.
The trouble is the Pac-12 schedule where they have the misfortune of playing UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Stanford—the latter two being the teams they draw out of the North division, just like last year. We have the USC game (in Salt Lake City) as a tossup, but in the others the Utes are underdogs.
Washington State in the Pac-12 opener and Arizona and Colorado at the end of the season are games Utah can and should win, and the Oregon State and Arizona State games don't look too bad from here. But if Utah wants to go bowling there's not much room for error—they need to win the games they're supposed to win and then either beat USC or upset Michigan, Oregon State, or ASU. Or they can beat Stanford again. There are a lot of paths to 6 or more wins if Utah is as good as we think, but if they start losing to teams they're supposed to beat—in particular if they don't have at least 3 wins in September—then it's probably going to be another disappointing year.
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