2014 Pre-season Rankings: #9 USC Trojans

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

USC Trojans  (Pac-12 #3; South #2)

#9	2013 Results	AP #19 USA #19	Strength:#19  Success:#18  Overall:#19
		Record: 10-4	Bowl: beat Fresno State 45-20 (Las Vegas Bowl)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #15 | USA #15 | Lindy's #15 | Athlon #14 | Steele #11
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 96%   Playoff odds: 1%

USC might be one of the nation's best teams, but reeling yet from scholarship reductions, will they have the consistency to have a great season?

Offense 6 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #60 (raw) #41 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #10 (adjusted)

Watch out: Steve Sarkisian want to run 90 plays a game, and if he gets even halfway there from last year's 66, the offense is going to be a lot more explosive.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #74 (raw) #76 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #67
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #32 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #81

Cody Kessler (2,968 yards, 20 TDs, 7 int) was an efficient but not terribly productive quarterback last year for USC. His efficiency suggests that pushing the pace will be a good thing. Leading receiver Nelson Agholor (918 yards, 6 TDs) is back while #2 Marqise Lee (791) jumps to the NFL after an injury-plagued season. Three of the next four (all 200 yards +) are back, too. The offensive line allowed 34 sacks last year and that will be a bigger problem with more reps, but production should be up significantly, too.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #64 (raw) #37 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #11 (adj.)

Five Trojans rushed for over 200 yards last year and three of them are back, led by #1 Javorius Allen (785 yards) and #2 Tre Madden (703). The offensive line has three starters back, senior Aundrey Walker, junior Max Tuerk, and soph Chad Wheeler. Just like the passing game, we would have predicted a good-sized jump even without the extra tempo, but the increase in offensive plays makes it a huge leap.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #14    Pass Defense  per-game: #3   Per-attempt: #4
Defense 7 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #17 (raw) #6 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #20	'13 picks: #55
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #26 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #28	'14 picks: #49

The Trojan defensive line loses George Uko (5 sacks) but have Leonard Williams (6 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss) back. At linebacker they lose Devon Kennard (9 sacks) from last year and projected starter Jabari Ruffin tore his ACL over the summer. The secondary loses Dion Bailey (6 interceptions) but the other three starters return. All in all the defense should be roughly as talented as last year's model, but given the huge increase in tempo by the offense, opponents are going to have many more plays and drives; our scoring defense projection falls from the top ten to borderline top 25.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Andre Heidari (15 of 22 FG) and punter Kris Albarado (37.1 average) are both back.
• Return Game:  Nelson Agholor will again be the team's main return man; thanks to 2 touchdown returns he actually averaged more on punt returns (19.1) than on kickoffs (17.5).
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see a big difference here.
• Injury correction:  For the most part USC had an average amount of injuries last year, with a bit more on defense than normal.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #25          2013 Recruiting Rank: #19
Steve Sarkisian's first recruiting class doesn't suffer much transition-year drawdown, ranking near the top of the Pac-12. It's a fairly small class—scholarship reductions are still in effect—but the quality is very high at the top, with two 5-star defensive backs: Adoree Jackson (Gardena, CA) who may return kickoffs as well, and John "JuJu" Smith (Long Beach). Sarkisian slowly but surely built the Washington program back, from an 0-12 year before he got there to 9-4 last year.

2013 Recap 
Too Much Drama: Lane Kiffin began the year on the hot seat and didn't even get halfway through the season without getting fired. The 30-13 Hawaii game was just okay, not great, and the 10-7 home loss to Washington State was the beginning of the end. The Trojans beat Boston College 35-7 and survived Chuckie Keeton's Utah State, 17-14. But when Arizona State hung 62 points on USC, mostly in a 2nd half flurry that got Kiffin the axe in the airport parking lot after the game. Ed Orgeron took over and led USC to a win over Arizona (38-31) and a loss to Notre Dame (14-10), and then five straight wins including a big upset over Stanford. They lost to UCLA 35-14 at home, however, to finish 9-4, and Orgeron quit after being passed over as next year's head coach. USC trounced Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl, 45-20 for another 10-win season.

Last year's prediction: Like everyone else we overrated the Trojans in 2012 but we got 2013 right on the nose. We ranked USC #20, one spot below where they finished in both polls (and in our Strength and Overall power ratings). We projected a 9-4 record and got that right, too. The game-by-game picks weren't quite as accurate. We obviously didn't predict the upset loss to Washington State, and we thought they'd lose to Oregon State and beat UCLA (both wrong). But we did have them beating Stanford, and overall we got 10 of 13 games correct. We didn't issue a prediction on Lane Kiffin's fate.

2014 Outlook

USC 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	84%	W
9/6	Sat	@	*Stanford	37%	L
9/13	Sat	@	Boston College	85%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	75%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	68%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Arizona	60%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	94%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Utah	53%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Washington State	68%	W
11/13	Thu	vs.	*California	88%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*UCLA	18%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	74%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 96%

USC opens the season hosting the team they just beat 45-20 in their bowl game last year. Fresno State loses QB Derek Carr while the Trojans have improved, so the bowl game score, which was a little unrepresentative last year, is probably a good starting point for this year's contest. But then the Trojans travel to Stanford and that's a very important, and probably close, game. The problem for USC is that they have some good players out for repairs early in the season such as Lamar Dawson and Josh Shaw. We give the Cardinal the edge due to playing at home but it's anyone's for the taking.

Southern Cal might follow that with 8 straight wins—but that's easier said than done. Things get harder from Boston College to Oregon State to Arizona State (home) to Arizona (road); then Colorado is essentially a freebie while Utah on the road is very much a tossup. Washington State won't be easy but USC should get their revenge, while California probably isn't ready to compete.

Then comes the biggest game on USC's schedule. There's a chance both teams could be undefeated at this point (unlikely, not impossible) but with the game at UCLA the Bruins probably win it again. USC ought to beat Notre Dame in L.A., which gives them a 9-3 or 10-2 record depending on the Utah result. The cumulative projection more accurately takes into account the odds of each game and expects an 8-4 record.

As we noted, it would only take a win over Stanford, and handling Utah, to be undefeated at UCLA, and an upset win there puts USC in the driver's seat for the College Football Playoff prior to the Pac-12 championship game. But we give USC only about a 1% chance of getting there. It would take a lot of consistency throughout the season to make such a run, and USC is still being hurt by the scholarship reductions. That means despite being one of the nation's best teams their performances will still likely be erratic, and the odds of a fantastic season are probably appropriately low.

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