SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| UCLA Bruins (Pac-12 #1; South #1) |
 #3 |
2013 Results |
AP #16 USA #16 | Strength:#12 Success:#15 Overall:#13 |
| Record: 10-3 | Bowl: Beat Virginia Tech 42-12 (Sun) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #7 | USA #7 | Lindy's #8 | Athlon #7 | Steele #3 | ||
| Record: 10-2 | Bowl odds: 99.9% Playoff odds: 57% | ||
Is UCLA the main challenger from the Pac-12 this year?
| Offense 8 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #21 (raw) #11 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #4 (adjusted) |
With both the passing and running game helped by Brett Hundley's return the overall offense should be firmly in the top ten.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #46 (raw) #34 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #90 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #15 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #70 |
The return of Brett Hundley (3,071 yards, 24 TDs, 9 int) puts UCLA in the national spotlight as a potential national title contender. Though top receiver Shaquelle Evans (709 yards, 9 TDs) is gone, five others had over 200 receiving yards and all of them are back, led by Devin Fuller (471) while two others topped 200 yards in 2012. Sacks were a huge problem last year (36) and while that problem is unlikely to go away protection should get better. UCLA should have a top 25 passing game in 2014.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #36 (raw) #29 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #15 (adj.) |
Brett Hundley also led the team in rushing with 748 yards (11 TDs) though that's not necessarily a great thing. But they split up the reps at running back so much—even bringing linebacker Myles Jack into the equation—that it's no wonder Hundley ended up #1. In all the top four return: Hundley, Paul Perkins (573 yards), Jordan James (534) and Jack (267). The offensive line should be better this year as Jake Brendel, Alex Redmond, and Caleb Benenoch are back with Simon Goines and Scott Quessenberry who started half-time. Goines will miss a few games at least, but they also add Malcolm Bunche who started at Miami in 2012. We see the rushing game getting better, too.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #34 Pass Defense per-game: #23 Per-attempt: #16 | ||
| Defense 8 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #37 (raw) #16 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #24 | '13 picks: #47 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #12 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #47 | '14 picks: #23 | |
UCLA's defensive line loses two starters including Cassius Marsh (6 sacks) and backup Keenan Graham (6 sacks), but 2012 starter Owamagbe Odighizuwa is back. At linebacker in the 3-4 the big loss is Anthony Barr (10 sacks, 10 tackles for loss) so we see the pass rusher getting weaker. But top tackler Eric Kendricks (106 tackles) is back along with two-way star Myles Jack (11 pass breakups). The secondary is in the best shape of all the units and we see the defense topping last year's 14 picks. Overall the defense looks a bit stronger despite losing Barr.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn (14 of 21 FG) is back but punter Sean Covington (41.9 average) left the team over the summer.
- Return Game: Steven Manfro (24.8 average on kickoffs) is back and he may handle more punts this year as Shaquelle Evans (6.8 average) was the main guy there last year. Ishmael Adams averaged 35 yards per kickoff return without the statistical help of a touchdown return (but only 10 attempts)
- Turnovers projection: UCLA's +5 fumble margin probably won't last into 2014, but improvements in interceptions probably cancel that out.
- Injury correction: The offense had a lot of injuries, and the defense had relatively few. That's a relative plus this year to the offense and a minus to the defense assuming those rates level out.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #37 2013 Recruiting Rank: #1
Last year we rated UCLA's recruiting class #1. This year they're in the lower half of the Pac-12. They have fewer total recruits this year than they did 4-star recruits last year. But that's the sometimes boom-bust nature of recruiting when players graduate and leave at uneven rates. Jim Mora has seen UCLA through its two best best back-to-back seasons since 1997-1998.
2013 Recap
UCLA jumped out to 5-0 but the only winning team they beat was Nebraska, 41-21, but that was an impressive comeback road win. They lost to Stanford and Oregon back to back so they weren't going to upset the natural order of things in the Pac-12. In their last three games they beat Washington, lost to ASU, and beat USC to finish behind the Sun Devils in the South. They dispatched Virginia Tech 42-12 in the Sun Bowl for their 10th win.
Last year's prediction: We ranked UCLA #23 and projected an 8-4 season so we were a bit behind the curve last year. But game-by-game we actually had everything correct until the last three; we made them underdogs in all three and they won two of them.
2014 Outlook
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UCLA 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | @ | Virginia | 94% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Memphis | 98% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | @ | Texas | 79% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Thu | @ | *Arizona State | 76% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Utah | 91% | W | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon | 67% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | @ | *California | 93% | W | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | @ | *Colorado | 96% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona | 92% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 75% | W | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | *USC | 82% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Fri | vs. | *Stanford | 83% | W | |||
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Straight up: 12-0 Cume: 10-2 Odds of 12-0: 14%
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Naturally for such a high-ranked team we predict a very good year for the Bruins, and favor them in every game. But when you add up the odds the expected number of wins is closer to 10—even while 11-1 is the most likely outcome (the "mode"). Going 12-0 is about a 15% proposition.
The first two games don't make much of a dent in their undefeated aspirations but road games at Texas and Arizona State both carry risk. Oregon is their toughest opponent but they get the Ducks at home a week after Utah.
The next two games are on the road but California and Colorado shouldn't offer a daunting challenge, nor should Arizona at home. Washington on the road is another matter but the Bruins should be able to handle it if they're as good as we think.
They close with two killer opponents—USC and Stanford—but both at home. The schedule is pretty kind that way, giving them these two and Oregon at home while saving Cal and Colorado for the road.
As the #1 team in the South they should expect to go to the Pac-12 Championship game, now played on a neutral field in Santa Clara, CA. We've recalculated our odds for UCLA to go to the College Football Playoff at 57%, as they are in our top four. The main reason they wouldn't go is that they would probably end up facing Oregon twice, and the Ducks are their chief competition for a CFB bid.
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SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
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