SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Texas A&M Aggies (SEC #9; West #6) |
 #26 |
2013 Results |
AP #18 USA #18 | Strength:#20 Success:#22 Overall:#22 |
| Record: 9-4 | Bowl: beat Duke 52-48 (Chik-fil-A) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #21 | USA #20 | Lindy's #29 | Athlon #34 | Steele #22 | ||
| Record: 7-5 | Bowl odds: 87% Playoff odds: <1% | ||
The general consensus is that the A&M program has become strong enough to survive a hit like losing Johnny Manziel without falling apart completely. In fact the pollsters think he was only worth a few rungs.
| Offense 5 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #5 (raw) #4 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #18 (adjusted) |
We've seen many arguments why losing Johnny Manziel is not a terrible thing for the A&M offense. The worst is, "Mike Evans was arguably as important to the team," which might be relevant if Evans were returning.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #8 (raw) #7 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #46 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #44 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #35 |
Johnny "Football" Manziel (4,114 yards, 37 TDs, 13 int) is now doing his thing in the NFL, and the suspense is over: Kenny Hill (183 yards, 1:0) is his successor, at least for game one. Hill did complete 73% of his passes as a true freshman last year (16 of 23). He won't have top targets Mike Evans (1,384 yards, 12 TDs) or Derel Walker (818 yards), nor #4 Travis Labhart (626), but #3 Malcome Kennedy (658) is back with two others who topped 200 yards. The offensive line returns four starters after giving up just 21 sacks last year, but that one lost starter is Jake Matthews. The Aggies will still pass the ball well, just not nearly as well without Manziel and Evans.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #46 (raw) #36 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #37 (adj.) |
Manziel was the team's leading rusher last year with 759 yards (9 TDs), and leading RB Ben Malena (551 yards, 10 TDs) is also gone. That still leaves three players who had over 250 yards last year, including Trey Williams (407) and projected starting tailback Tra Carson (329). Four starters return to the offensive line: Jarvis Harrison, Cedric Ogbuehi, Germain Ifedi, and Jake's brother Mike Matthews. The Aggies did lose three backup offensive linemen over the summer, but the running game will naturally step up to cover for the fledgling passing game, maintaining production despite the loss of Manziel and Malena.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #81 Pass Defense per-game: #107 Per-attempt: #70 | ||
| Defense 6 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #100 (raw) #72 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #83 | '13 picks: #15 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #72 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #92 | '14 picks: #19 | |
One reason why Texas A&M was supposed to thrive this year without Manziel was improvement in the defense, and that was a good theory before this summer, when 9 starters were back. All four starters were back on the defensive line, for example—but Isaiah Golden was dismissed and Gavin Stansbury left the team. They were already without leading tackler Steven Jenkins at linebacker when starter Darian Claiborne was dismissed. Further, reserve linebacker Shann Washington and starting corner DeVante Harris will probably miss the early part of the season; Washington has a broken collarbone and Harris a "urinary tract injury." After all the carnage, A&M's defense doesn't really look any better than last year's crew.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Kicker Josh Lambo (8 of 10 FG) and punter Drew Kaser (47.4 average) are both back.
- Return Game: Trey Williams averaged 25.2 yards per kickoff return; he's back, and DeVante Harris will resume punt return duties (6.7 average) once his urinary tract injury resolves itself.
- Turnovers projection: A&M's quarterbacks are very green, and we expect a lot of interceptions in the early going. We also expect that the defense won't match its 17 picks from last year.
- Injury correction: The offense had great luck with injuries, while the defense had a terrible time with them; this made the team further imbalanced between offense and defense, but the two should draw closer this year.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #7 2013 Recruiting Rank: #6
Now we come to the real reason Texas A&M will be just fine without Johnny Manziel—it's because suddenly A&M is cool, something that has never really happened before. Kevin Sumlin has done an incredible job recruiting the last couple of years and even if there's not another Johnny Football in these classes, there are a tremendous amount of good players. This year he reeled in consensus 5-star recruits Myles Garrett (DE, Arlington), Speedy Noll (WR, New Orleans), and Kyle Allen (QB, Scottsdale AZ). Allen is in the mix at QB already but didn't get the job right away. SEC recruiting is so ridiculous that our #7 class in the nation only translates to #5 in the SEC.
2013 Recap
Texas A&M ended up beating the teams they were better than, and losing to those better than them. That means they fell to 11-2 Alabama (49-42) after torching the Tide defense again; to 12-2 Auburn 45-41 with Manziel sacked on the final play; at 10-3 LSU 34-10; and at 12-2 Missouri 28-21. They did beat 10-4 Rice (52-31), 9-4 Vanderbilt (56-24), and, in the bowl game, 10-4 Duke (52-48).
Last year's prediction: We had the Aggies #3 in the nation to start with. We didn't think the defense would get as bad as it did, and that made all the difference. We weren't in bad company, though, as they started in the top ten almost everywhere. Game-by-game we only picked them to lose to Alabama, but their cumulative estimate was 10-2, a few wins too many.
2014 Outlook
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aTm 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/28 | Thu | @ | *South Carolina | 25% | L | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Lamar | 99% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | Rice | 91% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | @ | SMU | 91% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | vs. | *Arkansas | 77% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | @ | *Mississippi State | 38% | L | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | vs. | *Mississippi | 45% | L | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | @ | *Alabama | 10% | L | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | UL-Monroe | 98% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | @ | *Auburn | 19% | L | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Missouri | 59% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Thu | vs. | *LSU | 47% | L | |||
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Straight up: 6-6 Cume: 7-5 Bowl eligible: 87%
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There are four games that are almost guaranteed for A&M to win: Lamar, Rice, SMU, and Louisiana-Monroe. We also give them Arkansas and Missouri. That's six wins, enough to make a bowl game.
Mississippi and LSU at home are close losses, almost tossups. Mississippi State falls into this category, too, probably; winnable, but not favored.
Then South Carolina, Alabama, and Auburn, all on the road, fall into the "very unlikely" category. The Aggies will be trying out their new quarterback on the road in game one vs. the Gamecocks; without Manziel the offense won't carve up Alabama with nearly the same success; and the Tigers beat them in College Station, so they probably do so in Auburn, too.
Because of the certainly of the four wins, and the close losses in other games, the cumulative estimate is for a 7-5 season, only one game worse than last year. So losing Johnny Manziel is no big deal after all, right?
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