2014 Pre-season Rankings: #62 Tennessee Volunteers

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Tennessee Volunteers  (SEC #12; East #5)

#62	2013 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#63  Success:#35  Overall:#54
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #57 | Athlon #42 | Steele #45
		Record: 5-7	Bowl odds: 24%   Playoff odds: <1%

When a team has to replace all of its starters on both the offensive and defensive line, it's not a good sign for the team's prospects. For the future, though, their recruiting class points in the right direction, and it helps them maintain a similar rating to last year despite a declining offense and defense.

Offense 4 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #95 (raw) #68 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #76 (adjusted)

The offense was dependent on the run last year but it will be a lot more balanced if the ground game grinds to a halt.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #113 (raw) #107 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #18
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #84 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #36

Justin Worley (1,239 yards, 10 TDs, 8 int) had an injury-shortened season and Joshua Dobbs (695, 2:6) filled in reasonably well for a true freshman. Both are back and the top five receivers are back this year led by Marquez North (496 yards). The offensive line did a very good job but their 15 sacks is going to jump a lot with no starters returning, though with limited attempts it still shouldn't be outrageous. The passing game was awful last year but should improve a lot this year.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #45 (raw) #30 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #72 (adj.)

The running game drove the offense last year but we don't see a strong ground attack from the Vols this year. They lose Rajon Neal (1,124 yards, 12 TDs) and while Marlin Lane (534 yards) returns he'll be running behind a completely new offensive line as all five starters are gone. Marcus Jackson did start half-time three years ago, but that's about it. We see the ground game going from near-top 25 to below-average unless the new starters get up to speed fast.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #74    Pass Defense  per-game: #34   Per-attempt: #32
Defense 5 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #82 (raw) #52 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #100	'13 picks: #8
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #66 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #109	'14 picks: #14

The defense's main problem, like the offense, is the line; all four starters in Tennessee's D-line are gone, including sacks leader Corey Miller, who had 6.5 of the team's 18 sacks. At linebacker they lose Dontavis Sapp (8 tackles for loss) is gone but AJ Johnson is back (106 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss). The secondary is again the strong point of the defense with every starter back when they aren't in nickel configuration. But with the rush defense lacking last year and only one starter in the front lines, things probably won't improve.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter/kicker Michael Palardy (44.5 on punts, 14 of 17 FG) is gone and is a tough piece of the puzzle to replace. Matt Darr, who punted three years ago, is available, as is kicker Derrick Brodus from two years ago, but these are the guys Palardy beat out to take over both spots
• Return Game:  Devrin Young returned punts (7.9 average) and kickoffs (25.9) last year, and he's back.
• Turnovers projection:  Tennessee ranked #8 in our pick ratings despite having just 14 interceptions; the reason was they faced so many teams that rarely threw interceptions (Oregon, South Carolina, Auburn, Missouri, Alabama, etc.). They might not get to 14 this year assuming their schedule has roughly the same profile. But the QBs should cut down on their own picks(16 last year).
• Injury correction: Tennessee was a bit more injury-free than most teams last year both on offense and defense, so they get a slight downgrade for this year as things tend to even out.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #1          2013 Recruiting Rank: #30
Amazingly, Butch Jones captures our top-ranked recruiting class of 2014 after being #30 last year, and without recruiting a single consensus 5-star recruit. How did he do it? Well, last year's class was his 1st year so it naturally wasn't as good or as large. So this year he pulled out every trick in the oversigning playbook to sign 32 recruits, half of whom are blue-chips and all of whom are above-average prospects. We're of the mind that 4-star and even 3-star recruits often develop into great college players; maybe not great pros but we're not concerned with that. Thus, a huge class made up of this type of recruit is going to reveal a wealth of great talent, moreso than a handful of 5-star players. Thus they edge Alabama for the top spot—for now. They might have to lose a player (supposedly their limit is 31 this year?) and there might be some natural attrition in fall camp but in any case, this class is going to pay dividends for the program this year and going forward.

2013 Recap 
Tennessee was 5-7 yet finished #35 in our Success rankings last year. The reason was that wins over 8-4 Western Kentucky, 6-6 South Alabama, and especially, 11-2 South Carolina give them a lot of plusses, and in terms of minuses there wasn't much: the Volunteers lost to four teams who finished with 11 or more wins! (The other losses were to 9-4 Vanderbilt, 8-5 Georgia, and 4-8 Florida). It's little consolation to long-suffering Tennessee fans but they played one of the hardest schedules in the FBS.

Last year's prediction: We probably overranked Tennessee at #43 but we projected a 5-7 record—not a hard guess for a team that was coming off two straight 5-7 seasons. Game-by-game we missed only the South Carolina upset and the Auburn loss.

2014 Outlook

Tennessee 2014 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sun	vs.	Utah State	55%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	90%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Oklahoma	12%	L
9/27	Sat	@	*Georgia	8%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Florida	28%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	Chattanooga	90%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Mississippi	11%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	6%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*South Carolina	12%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	62%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	32%	L
11/29	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	55%	W
Straight up: 5-7  Cume: 5-7  Bowl eligible: 24%

The bad news is that Tennessee's schedule is just as tough in 2014. Sure, they lose Oregon but they add Oklahoma. They have Arkansas State instead of Western Kentucky but have Utah State instead of a 2nd Sun Belt team. And Chattanooga is a big step up from Austin Peay.

It looks like a broken record but we're picking another 5-7 season for the Vols. They should beat Utah State—no guarantee—at home as well as Arkansas State, but Oklahoma and then Georgia on the road are probably rough losses. As are Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina later on. In between they have a win over Chattanooga and late in the year Kentucky and Vanderbilt should be wins, too.

Once again, even the wins aren't very solid, and the possibility of a disastrous 2-10 season remains. But as we saw last year, the Vols are capable of pulling off huge upsets so certainly games against the likes of Florida and Missouri are hardly out of reach. But slipping to 4-8 is almost as likely as going 5-7 again.

What would change this outlook is if the offensive and defensive lines do a remarkable job of maturing quickly and allow the Vols to compete in the trenches where, as they say, games are won and lost. This year's recruiting class can help out on both sides. With some solid play there Tennessee could exceed our expectations and pretty easily make it to their first bowl game in four years.

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Comments

[Brad Maddox]

The vols have a great chance at breaking the cycle. With Oklahoma early in the season, and Florida a little later than usual, the Sooners will be a great non-conference test. And the SEC east bid may not be decided so early. Tennessee will surprise folks this year! 9-3 w/ a bowl game...... Wait and see