SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Stanford Cardinal (Pac-12 #4; North #2) |
 #11 |
2013 Results |
AP #11 USA #10 | Strength:#5 Success:#5 Overall:#6 |
| Record: 11-3 | Bowl: Lost to Michigan St. 24-20 (Rose) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #11 | USA #11 | Lindy's #13 | Athlon #12 | Steele #12 | ||
| Record: 8-4 | Bowl odds: 92% Playoff odds: <1% | ||
This year we rank Stanford right in line with everybody else—but it doesn't stop us from yet again predicting an off-year record-wise.
| Offense 5 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #43 (raw) #21 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #35 (adjusted) |
A rebuilt offensive line and the loss of Tyler Gaffney has us projecting a much weaker running game. Is this the year they turn Barry Sanders Jr loose?
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #95 (raw) #82 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #5 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #45 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #15 |
Kevin Hogan (2,630 yards, 20 TDs, 10 int) probably didn't have the breakthrough year some expected of him—his completion rate fell from 72% to 61%—but he still had a decent sophomore year rather than a "slump." This time around he's got his top five receivers back led by Ty Montgomery (958 yards, 10 TDs) and Devon Cajuste (642). The offensive line loses four starters and won't protect like they did last year (just 16 sacks against sack-happy defenses) but it should still be good. Last year we didn't have high hopes for Hogan as he lost all his receivers, but this year we see a good increase in production.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #23 (raw) #18 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #70 (adj.) |
Tyler Gaffney (1,709 yards, 21 TDs) somehow became Stanford's offense last year, to the point where they probably depended on him too much. Now he's gone and they'll see how that works out for them. QB Hogan was the #2 gainer with 355 net, and WR Montgomery is the next one returning (#4 w/159). The next feature back? Either Barry Sanders (5 carries for 42 yards last year) or maybe Remound Wright (102 yds). The offensive line returns just one starter—Andrus Peat—as they lose two NFL draft picks and two other talented starters. We'd love to see Sanders explode for thousands of yards but given his paltry opportunities last year (why does it already seem like he's been here forever?) it looks like a running-back-by-committee paradigm where no one can quite get on track behind the new O-Line.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #1 Pass Defense per-game: #37 Per-attempt: #11 | ||
| Defense 7 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #11 (raw) #1 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #3 | '13 picks: #74 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #2 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #17 | '14 picks: #91 | |
Last year we predicted that Stanford would overake Alabama as the #1 adjusted scoring defense and they did in our All-Division Strength power rating. They also had the #1 rushing defense and were #3 in adjusted sacks (44). Two of three starters return to the defensive line this year including Henry Anderson who had 5.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in 2012 but was hurt part of last year (just 3 sacks). Josh Mauro (8.5 tackles for loss) is gone, however. Two starting linebackers return including AJ Tarpley but #1 tackler Shayne Skov (109 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss) is gone along with Trent Murphy (15 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss). Needless to say, we see the pass rush weakening significantly. The secondary returns three starters but they still lose the majority of their pass breakups and we see interceptions dropping a bit even from last year's 13. Overall despite returning 7 starters we think the defense will fall from the #1 spot, allowing about 2 1/2 more points per game than last year.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Kicker Jordan Williamson (18 of 22 FG) is back along with punter Ben Rhyne (42.9 average). Both are seniors.
- Return Game: Barry Sanders did see action on special teams, returning 7 punts for 71 yards (10.1 average). Ty Montgomery was great as kickoff returner, scoring two touchdowns for a 30.3 yard average.
- Turnovers projection: We don't see too big of a change here.
- Injury correction: The offense had fewer injuries than normal last year and that docks them slightly going forward.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #27 2013 Recruiting Rank: #77
David Shaw's 4th class is one of the better classes in the Pac-12, and includes consensus 5-star defensive lineman Solomon Thomas from Coppell, Texas. Last year's class ranked low because is was very small (12 recruits).
2013 Recap
Stanford raced out to a 4-0 start, then escaped Washington 31-28. Some were saying they were the best team in the country...then they got upset by Utah 27-21. They came back to beat UCLA, Oregon State, and then dominated Oregon for most of the game, winning 26-20. Again, the talk returned—best team in the country? They proptly lost to USC 20-17. They crushed Cal and beat Notre Dame and whipped Arizona State 38-14 for the Pac-12 title; many suggested that if there were a 4-team playoff, Stanford should be in it despite 2 losses. Naturally, they lost in the Rose Bowl to Michigan State 24-20.
Last year's prediction: We ranked Stanford only #19, and projected a 7-5 record. What did we get wrong? Basically, our dim outlook of the offense was much too dim. The scoring offense got worse, but not nearly as much as we suspected it might. We did get one prediction right, probably our best of the year, when our data suggested Stanford's scoring defense would improve from #4 to #1, and it happened.
2014 Outlook
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Stanford 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | vs. | UC Davis | 100% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | *USC | 57% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | Army | 99% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 48% | L | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | @ | Notre Dame | 57% | W | |||
| 10/10 | Fri | vs. | *Washington State | 81% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | @ | *Arizona State | 50% | L | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon State | 73% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | @ | *Oregon | 21% | L | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Utah | 68% | W | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | @ | *California | 77% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Fri | @ | *UCLA | 17% | L | |||
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Straight up: 8-4 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 92%
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It looks like another year where we're lowballing Stanford, with a cumulative projection that sits between 7 and 8 wins. The game-by-game picks are a little more generous, with only 2 clear losses and two more tossups, suggesting anywhere from 8 to 10 wins.
UC Davis is a gimme opener followed by a tough home opponent in USC. Army is practically another gimme. Then the Cardinal face Washington and Notre Dame both on the road; they should split these games but nothing is guaranteed; Stanford could be 5-0 at this point or easily 2-3.
After Washington State they visit Arizona State and that's completely up in the air. Oregon State should be a win but Oregon is probably a loss. Utah and Cal, wins; UCLA, loss.
Add those games up and you come out anywhere from 6-6 to 10-2, but Stanford showed how random they can be last year by losing to 5-7 Utah. Revenge may be this year's theme; we think there's a good chance Stanford will beat the teams that beat them in their last meeting (Utah, USC) and lose to the good teams they beat last year (Washington, ASU, Oregon, UCLA) and finish 8-4. Note that all four of those losses are on the road. If they lose a fifth it will be Notre Dame since it fits that pattern.
With their tough schedule their odds of getting to the College Football Playoff are less than 1%. We have underestimated the Cardinal before so maybe treat this as a worst-case scenario, but it's not like we're rating them low this year; they just have a lot of tough road games, and every team has an off-year now and then.
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