SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| South Carolina Gamecocks (SEC #5; East #2) |
 #14 |
2013 Results |
AP #4 USA #4 | Strength:#14 Success:#4 Overall:#8 |
| Record: 11-2 | Bowl: beat Wisconsin 34-24 (Capital One) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #9 | USA #9 | Lindy's #9 | Athlon #9 | Steele #10 | ||
| Record: 9-3 | Bowl odds: 99% Playoff odds: 1% | ||
After three straight 11-2 seasons is South Carolina ready to fall, or rise to the top?
| Offense 8 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #37 (raw) #19 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #20 (adjusted) |
The Gamecocks lose quarterback Connor Shaw but they have an adequate replacement and RB Mike Davis should have a great year.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #42 (raw) #35 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #40 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #37 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #26 |
Replacing Connor Shaw (2,447 yards, 24 TDs, 1 int) is going to be a tough job, but senior Dylan Thomas (783 yards, 4:3) is experienced and knows the offense. Top receiver Bruce Ellington (775 yards, 8 TDs) is gone but 7 others who topped 100 yards are back led by Damiere Byrd (575 yards). The offensive line should be in great shape after allowing 23 sacks last year. Thomas won't replicate Shaw's insane 24:1 ratio but he should come close to matching last year's team production.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #32 (raw) #27 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #18 (adj.) |
Mike Davis (1,183 yards, 11 TDs) was one of the nation's top running backs when he was healthy, and big things are expected from him in 2014. Three other runners—all back this season—topped 200 yards, as did QB Connor Shaw (558 yards) who departs. The offensive line returns three full-time starters, seniors Corey Robinson and Al Cann and junior Brandon Shell. Sophomores Cody Waldrop and Clayton Stadnik each started half-time. Mike Matulis, part-time starter from 2012, is also back but his injuries have made him doubtful for the year. This is a very strong offensive line and with Davis hopefully healthy all year the ground game should rank in the top 25, even as production from the QB spot slips.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #30 Pass Defense per-game: #17 Per-attempt: #33 | ||
| Defense 6 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #12 (raw) #10 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #51 | '13 picks: #13 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #15 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #75 | '14 picks: #46 | |
The big loss on South Carolina's defense is of course Jadeveon Clowney (8.5 tackles for loss) who actually had a disappointing final year just because he wasn't a dominating force on every play; this was either due to saving himself for the NFL, or a sports hernia he suffered from during the season, depending on who you listen to. They also lose Kelcy Quarles (9.5 sacks) off the 4-3 defensive line, which will be weaker with only one starter returning. But both starting linebackers return including #1 tackler Skai Moore, and Sharrod Golightly is back at the Spur (LB/Safety) position. The secondary proper returns two more starters but they do lose #2 tackler Jimmy Legree. The defense won't lose much effectiveness in terms of points yielded, but the big plays—sacks and interceptions—will be fewer and further between.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Elliot Fry (15 of 18 FG) and punter Tyler Hull (3.8 average) are both back for their senior seasons.
- Return Game: Pharoah Cooper is back after averaging 22.4 yards on kickoffs and 4.4 on punt returns.
- Turnovers projection: Last year Connor Shaw had 1 interception in 284 attempts; Dylan Thomas had 3 in 89. You can see where we're going. It's only fair to add in Thomas' 2012 stats, so he's had a total of 5 in 216. No matter how you slice it, the team's going to have many more than 4 interceptions this season. We also expect the defense to have a lot fewer picks than last year's 18.
- Injury correction: Both the offense and defense benefitting from few injuries last year, and that probably won't happen this season.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #34 2013 Recruiting Rank: #21
This year's recruiting class was already small before at least three players failed to qualify, leaving it as one of the weakest groups in the SEC. Of course, it still ranks as pretty damn good on a national level, but in the SEC you have to be in the top 25 to stay above water year-to-year. Steve Spurrier has been here 9 years now, almost as long as he was at Florida (12 years), remarkably. He's built a mediocre program into a big winner, with three consecutive 11-2 seasons.
2013 Recap
South Carolina lost in the 2nd game of the season to Georgia, 41-30. At 5-1, they lost in double overtime to Tennessee, and it seemed like the season was going to be a disappointment. But then they beat previously undefeated Missouri in double overtime and won out, beating Clemson 31-17. An earlier win over Central Florida (28-25) ended up being very important as the Knights went 12-1. The Gamecocks beat Wisconsin 34-24 in the Capital One Bowl and SC finished #4 in the nation in the polls.
Last year's prediction: We ranked South Carolina #13 in the pre-season last year, predicting a 9-3 season. Game by game the only loss we projected was Georgia. It's unlikely anyone predicted SC's trajectory in losing to 5-7 Tennessee but still finishing in the top 5.
2014 Outlook
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South Carolina 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/28 | Thu | vs. | *Texas A&M | 75% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | East Carolina | 91% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | *Georgia | 49% | L | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | @ | *Vanderbilt | 86% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | vs. | *Missouri | 69% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | @ | *Kentucky | 80% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | Furman | 99% | W | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | @ | *Auburn | 27% | L | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Tennessee | 88% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | @ | *Florida | 48% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | South Alabama | 98% | W | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | @ | Clemson | 55% | W | |||
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Straight up: 9-3 Cume: 9-3 Bowl eligible: 99%
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We only show one clear loss on South Carolina's schedule—the game at Auburn. There are two more games that a tossups: Georgia at home, and Florida on the road. Win both of those and they're 11-1; lose both and they are 9-3.
The rest of the schedule consists of games where we favor the Gamecocks, and usually by a lot. Texas A&M could be a close game but a home win. East Carolina is easier. Vanderbilt shouldn't be that big of a test this year, even on the road, and Missouri won't be easy but it shouldn't take two overtimes this year.
Kentucky isn't yet a challenge to the Gamecocks, and Furman won't ever be. Tennessee and South Alabama at home shouldn't be a challenge, but Clemson on the road is a big one, and is close to being another tossup.
But remember that somehow the #4 team in the country lost to 5-7 Tennessee and you realize anything can happen. The cumulative projection doesn't take any win for granted and settles on 9-3 as the most likely outcome—whether that means losing all the close games, or winning them and getting upset somewhere else. If they do win the close ones they could be going places, but we give them just over a 1% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
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