2014 Pre-season Rankings: #54 Pittsburgh Panthers

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Pittsburgh Panthers  (ACC #9; Coastal #6)

#54	2013 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#54  Success:#37  Overall:#55
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: beat Bowling Green 30-27 (Pizza Bowl)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #55 | Athlon #36 | Steele #56
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 88%   Playoff odds: <1%

Pitt has been 6-6 three straight years. We're thinking they can break out of that, and if they're lucky in all the close games they could go 10-2.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #79 (raw) #64 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #61 (adjusted)

The Panthers should have a stronger ground game this year with both top running backs returning.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #63 (raw) #58 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #122
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #76 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #113

Tom Savage (2,958 yards, 21 TDs, 9 int) departs and Chad Voytik (116 yards) takes over for the Panthers. The big problem last year was protection, as the O-line gave up 43 sacks. Voytik should have it at least a little better than Savage did as four starters return. At receiver the only loss is #2 Devin Street (854 yards); #1 Tyler Boyd (1,174 yards) is back with three others who topped 100 yards. Voytik showed promise as a freshman but the Panthers might run the ball more given their returning talent there.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #106 (raw) #98 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #68 (adj.)

Pittsburgh's RB tandem of James Conner (799 yards, 8 TDs) and Isaac Bennett (797 yards, 7 TDs) is back, and they should have a strong line to run behind as four starters return. Senior Matt Rotheram and juniors Artie Rowell and TJ Clemmings all started full time last year. The running game looks strong and could be the engine of the offense this year.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #15    Pass Defense  per-game: #66   Per-attempt: #71
Defense 5 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #71 (raw) #42 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #46	'13 picks: #103
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #58 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #79	'14 picks: #115

The Panthers have just one starter back on the defensive line in the 4-3. Two linebackers returns and two of four starters in the secondary. The big loss is of course Outland Trophy winner Aaron Donald (11 sacks, plus 17.5 tackles for loss). The D-line is further hit by the loss of backup Ejuan Price, and the secondary by the suspension of projected starting corner Titus Howard. The loss of Donald alone would be a bad break, and we project the D's sack totals to go down and opponents' scores to rise.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Chris Blewitt (14 of 18 FG) is back but punter Matt Yoklic (43.0 average) departs.
• Return Game:  Lafayette Pitts averaged 23.1 yards per kickoff return, and Kevin Weatherspoon 8.2 ave on punts; both are back.
• Turnovers projection:  Pitt's fumble margin should have been a lot better last year given how rarely they coughed up the ball; it should be at least in positive territory this year. A question mark is new QB Voytik's propensity for throwing picks.
• Injury correction: Injuries were fairly bad on offense but fairly mild on defense.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #46          2013 Recruiting Rank: #25
This year's recruiting doesn't match last year's top 25 class but it's still about average for the ACC. Pitt has been mired in mediocrity for over a decade and Paul Chryst's first two years—6-7 and 7-6—were more of the same.

2013 Recap 
Pitt dropped their opener to Florida State 41-13, but bounced back with three straight wins including a 58-55 shootout win over Duke. They lost three of the next four and were 4-4 when they upset Notre Dame, 28-21. It didn't give them much of a boost as they dropped 2 of the last three to finish 6-6. Beating Bowling Green in the Little Caesar's Pizz Bowl kept them from suffering a third straight 6-7 season.

Last year's prediction: We noted we were the "outlier on the low side" when ranking Pitt #82, and in this case we were in the wrong, picking them to go 4-8. We got the outlook for the rushing game and the defense very accurate but thought the passing game would collapse without its receivers. Instead they did pretty well and the offense got better, not worse.

2014 Outlook

Pittsburgh 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Delaware	97%	W
9/5	Fri	@	*Boston College	61%	W
9/13	Sat	@	FIU	95%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Iowa	49%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	Akron	89%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Virginia	52%	W
10/16	Thu	vs.	*Virginia Tech	47%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	58%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Duke	57%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*North Carolina	31%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	61%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Miami FL	31%	L
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 88%

There are a lot of games Pitt can win this year. There are also an awful lot of close games. If they win all the close games, the Panthers could go 10-2 pretty easily.

Pittsburgh doesn't play Florida State, neither in the opener nor at all. Instead they open with Delaware which should get them off to a much nicer start. They should beat Boston College if all goes well, and then Florida International is another near-gimme.

After a likely 3-0 or at least 2-1 start comes the first tossup game when Iowa comes to town. Then following Akron the Panthers play Virginia and Virginia Tech back-to-back and both are tight games. Georgia Tech and Duke at home follow and those should be wins but are close games, too. At this point Pitt could easily be anything from 3-6 to 9-0.

North Carolina is their first "solid" loss though that one and Miami are both "in play" certainly, and they ought to beat Syracuse (though it's no guarantee). When all is said and done Pitt comes out 7-5 by the cumulative projection, and anywhere from 3-9 to 12-0 picking game-by-game. 5-7 to 10-2 is a more realistic range, as outside of that would take a lot of luck, bad or good. Anything but 6-6 again!

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