SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Oregon Ducks (Pac-12 #2; North #1) |
 #4 |
2013 Results |
AP #9 USA #9 | Strength:#3 Success:#11 Overall:#4 |
| Record: 11-2 | Bowl: Beat Texas 30-7 (Alamo) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #3 | USA #4 | Lindy's #4 | Athlon #6 | Steele #4 | ||
| Record: 10-2 | Bowl odds: 99.9% Playoff odds: 12% | ||
Once again Oregon looks like one of the top five teams in the country. The goal is to be one of the top four before the bowl season.
| Offense 8 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #4 (raw) #3 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #3 (adjusted) |
The Ducks lose a lot of receivers but return most of their ground game, so while the balance could change a bit but the offense will still be among the nation's very best.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #22 (raw) #18 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #21 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #26 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #16 |
Marcus Mariota (3,665 yards, 31 TDs, 4 int) is a leading Heisman contender heading into the 2014 season, but most of his top receivers are gone. Josh Huff (1,140 yards, 12 TDs) departs, and #2 Bralon Addison (890 yards, 7 TDs) tore an ACL in the spring and his return is doubtful. Johnny Mundt (#4 w/281) is the leading returner, while four other returning Ducks had over 100 yards. The offensive line might be even stronger this year (allowed 18 sacks). Mariota could match his 2013 production if Addison returns healthy, but matching his 31:4 ratio would be even better.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #10 (raw) #10 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #6 (adj.) |
Oregon loses DeAthony Thomas, but he was out a big chunk of the season and had just 594 rushing yards (8 TDs). The Ducks get Byron Marshall (1,038 yards, 14 TDs) and Thomas Tyner (711, 9) back, along with QB Mariota (715, 9). Mariota was much less effective when he couldn't run well, for example against Stanford. The offensive line returns starters Hroniss Grasu, Hamani Stevens, and Jake Fischer while Cameron Hunt started half-time as a freshman. Tyler Johnstone was back, too, but tore his ACL over the summer. The line should still be better than last year and the ground game with it.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #55 Pass Defense per-game: #5 Per-attempt: #5 | ||
| Defense 5 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #14 (raw) #12 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #38 | '13 picks: #39 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #13 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #27 | '14 picks: #45 | |
Two starters return to Oregon's D-Line including Tony Washington (7.5 sacks), and two starting linebackers return in the 4-3 as well. Top tackler Derrick Malone (105 tackles) is back but reserve LB Rahim Cassell recently left the program. The secondary loses three starters including Avery Patterson while Ifo Ekpre-Olomu returns for his senior year. Despite the losses—and suffering almost no major injuries last year—the Ducks don't drop much in our scoring defense rankings mostly due to how the other teams around them adjust (they would have fallen to 19th in last year's rankings).
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Punter/kicker Alejandro Maldanado (39.9 punt average, 3 of 5 FG) is gone, but kicker Matt Wogan (7 of 9 FG after taking over placekicking last year) is back.
- Return Game: De'Anthony Thomas averaged 24.4 yards per punt return last year with one touchdown; Bralon Addison averaged 14.1 yards per punt return with two touchdowns. Thomas is gone, and Addison's status is uncertain (ACL) but he'll probably miss at least half the year if not more.
- Turnovers projection: For as often as Oregon coughed up the ball, they didn't lose that many fumbles, which was pretty lucky. They better get control of the former or they'll find that the latter is normally in line with the law of averages.
- Injury correction: The Ducks had a lot of injuries on offense but didn't lose any starters on defense all year. That suggests a strong offensive year coming and the defense could be weaker, assuming normal injury rates going forward.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #29 2013 Recruiting Rank: #20
Mark Helfrich's 2nd recruiting class dips a bit from his first, which was weaker than Chip Kelly's last one. It still ranks above-average for the Pac-12. Helfrich's first year was a mixed success for recent Oregon squads at 11-2 after three years of 12 wins. Standards are pretty high here these days!
2013 Recap
Oregon blew out their first 5 opponents, scoring 55 points or more each contest. None of them ended with a winning record, however. But they beat 9-4 Washington 45-24, bowl-bound Washington State 63-38, and 10-3 UCLA 42-14. So they were favored against Stanford on the road but were stuffed for most of the game, losing 26-20. Two games later they were dismantled by Arizona 42-16. They escaped Oregon State 36-35. During this time Marcus Mariota's knee was bothering him and he couldn't run. In the bowl game a healthy Mariota destroyed Texas 30-7 in the Alamo Bowl.
Last year's prediction: We ranked Oregon #2—basically one spot above the consensus. We projected an 11-1 regular season record, but naturally as the #2 team there were no individual games where we had the Ducks as underdogs. They didn't make the BCS Championship game like we expected—nor even the Pac-12 Championship game. But it's not like they were a bad team—they finished #3 in Strength.
2014 Outlook
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Oregon 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | vs. | South Dakota | 100% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Michigan State | 78% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | Wyoming | 99% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | @ | *Washington State | 83% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Thu | vs. | *Arizona | 88% | W | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | @ | *UCLA | 33% | L | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Washington | 83% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Fri | @ | *California | 90% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Stanford | 79% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | @ | *Utah | 73% | W | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Colorado | 98% | W | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | @ | *Oregon State | 77% | W | |||
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Straight up: 11-1 Cume: 10-2 Odds of 12-0: 6%
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We pick Oregon to win every game this year except one—they play UCLA in Los Angeles, and the Bruins are ranked higher. Add in all the other "partial losses" and the cumulative odds suggest a 10-2 year.
South Dakota is an obvious win, but even Michigan State—13-1 last year—ranks as a fairly certain win for the Ducks at home. It's one of the key games for the College Football Playoff and will help set the relative perception of the Pac-12 and Big Ten. Wyoming is another gimme and after Washington State and Arizona, Oregon should be 5-0, or at least 4-1.
Then the UCLA game is critical for the Pac-12 race. Even though they're in separate divisions, it could knock one team or the other out of the Pac-12 championship game. If things play out like our game-by-game charts indicate, then these teams will rematch in Santa Clara for the Pac-12 title.
In the 2nd half of the season Oregon has Washington and Stanford at home which should help them win both of those, and having Utah and Oregon State on the road makes those games the tougher pair.
Oregon has a 5% chance of going undefeated by our numbers, and a 12% chance of making the College Football Playoff. A 12-1 Oregon is still in strong contention for the playoff, and they could be 10-2 and still make it under the scenario where they lose to Michigan State and UCLA, then beat UCLA in the rematch. The easiest way of course is to go 12-0, so let's hope Marcus Mariota keeps his knees healthy.
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