2014 Pre-season Rankings: #12 Oklahoma Sooners

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Oklahoma Sooners  (Big Twelve #2)

#12	2013 Results	AP #6 USA #6	Strength:#18  Success:#8  Overall:#16
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: beat Alabama 45-31 (Sugar)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #4 | USA #3 | Lindy's #3 | Athlon #4 | Steele #5
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.7%   Playoff odds: 28%

A lot still depends on current developments at Oklahoma. The Sooners couldn't get Dorial Green-Beckham eligible for the season, but they're working on Baker Mayfield and Frank Shannon as we speak.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #40 (raw) #25 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #31 (adjusted)

Spotty quarterback play (other than in the bowl game) and the loss of their top running backs and receiver could cause the offense to dip, but not much.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #94 (raw) #77 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #26
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #83 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #24

Who would have thought that Blake Bell (1,648 yards, 12 TDs, 5 int) would throw for more yards than Trevor Knight (819 yards, 9:5) ? Or that Knight would rush for more yardage? In the topsy-turvy world that was Sooner quarterbacking last year, Knight started early on but Bell took over for most of the season. Knight came back from injury and finished strong, cementing his status at #1 and Bell moved to tight end. The best QB of all of them might be transfer Baker Mayfield (2,315 yards, 12:9 at Texas Tech last year) but he has to sit a year unless his lawyers can overturn that. At receiver three of the top five depart including Jalen Saunders (729 yards, 8 TDs) while #2 Sterling Shepard (603) is back. Last year's solid protection (15 sacks) should remain. After his Sugar Bowl performance (32 of 44, 348 yards, 4 TDs) everyone is expecting great things from Knight; we're still skeptical since over 250 of his bowl yards were to receivers no longer here.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #19 (raw) #23 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #39 (adj.)

The Sooners lose three of their top six rushers including #1 Brennan Clay (957 yards) and #2 Damien Williams (553). QB Knight (445) is the top returnee and QB Bell (255) the next, so at running back they'll turn to Keith Ford (#6, 134 yards). The offensive line is in good shape with three senior starters back, Adam Shead, Daryl Williams, and Tyrus Thompson, and 2011 starter Tyler Evans is back and finally healthy. Half-time starter Nila Kasitati returns as well. The Sooners lose a lot of production from the running back position but the QBs will be running a lot.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #47    Pass Defense  per-game: #8   Per-attempt: #30
Defense 8.5 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #25 (raw) #17 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #16	'13 picks: #34
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #9 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #6	'14 picks: #29

Oklahoma's 3-man defensive line should be in good shape with Charles Tapper (5.5 sacks) returning, and the pass rush could be top ten strength. At linebacker Dominique Alexander is back with Eric Striker (6.5 sacks) but the big question is whether top tackler Frank Shannon will play at all. Shannon was suspended by the university for a year but has been granted a stay while it plays out in court. We count him as being "half available" if there is no closure before the season starts, and assume that no matter what he won't play in the first half of the season. The secondary has three starters back including Zach Sanchez (13 pass breakups). Overall the defense looks good, and whether or not we consider it to be top-ten-quality depends on Shannon's status.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Michael Hunnicutt (24 of 27 FG last year) and punter Jed Barnett (41.7 average) are both back for their senior years.
• Return Game:  The Sooners will miss Jalen Saunders (15.4 average, 2 touchdowns) on punts and Roy Finch (25.6 average) on kickoff returns.
• Turnovers projection:  Oklahoma had a +4 fumble recovery margin despite coughing up the ball 4 times more than their opponents; that was lucky, and won't last.
• Injury correction:  The Sooners had slightly worse than average luck with injuries on both offense and defense last year, a (small) boon going forward ratingwise.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #12          2013 Recruiting Rank: #15
Bob Stoops has had a number of off-field issues to deal with and his decisions have been questioned by some. Allowing Dorial Green-Beckham to transfer in from Missouri—where he was in trouble several times and accused of assault—was controversial. The Frank Shannon affair raises questions about the relationship between the athletic department and the office of the president, whose statement made it seem they were powerless to enforce their Title IX investigation decision (it was due to Shannon's legal appeal, not anything Stoops did, so the President's language was interesting). Where Stoops is certainly right is in trying to get Baker Mayfield eligible. Mayfield provided services to Texas Tech that are normally compensated with free college costs, yet he got none of that; still, he's being forced to sit out a year because Kliff Kingsbury doesn't want to face Mayfield as an opponent. It's a good question whether Stoops might do the same thing if the situation was reversed, but he's clearly in the right here. This year's recruiting class is another solid one, probably the best in the Big Twelve. Its standout star, Joe Mixon, has been the source of more problems for Stoops as he was accused of assault and suspended for the year.

2013 Recap 
Oklahoma often starts the year with an ugly win but they blanked UL-Lafayette 34-0. The next game was the ugly win as they topped West Virginia 16-7. Three wins later and they were 5-0 and huge favorites over Texas, and that one was an ugly loss, 36-20. Even uglier was Baylor a few games later, 41-12, and at 7-2 it looked like they'd just go throught the motions for the rest of the year. Instead they upset Oklahoma State 33-24 in the final, and then thrashed Alabama 45-31 in the Sugar Bowl for their most satisfying end-of-season performance in a long time.

Last year's prediction: We picked Oklahoma to be #18, and though they finished higher in the polls that's where they averaged out for the season in Strength. They had a lot more success than that, though, and certainly more than the 8-4 we picked for their record. Game by game we favored Oklahoma in nine games, with losses to Notre Dame (nope), Texas (yep), and Oklahoma State (no). We predicted a big fall in passing production from #6 to #31—and they fell all the way to #77. But the defense bucked our prediction and improved instead of weakening.

2014 Outlook

Oklahoma 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	99%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Tulsa	92%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Tennessee	88%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*West Virginia	74%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*TCU	53%	W
10/11	Sat	N	*Texas	62%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	82%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Iowa State	85%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	48%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	73%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	96%	W
12/6	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	82%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.7%

Oklahoma has a chance in every game this year and we have them the favorite in 11 of 12. Baylor is a close loss, and TCU is nearly a tossup that could change if Frank Shannon is ruled out, but the rest we consider wins. The cumulative estimate figures in an upset or two and ends up with 9 wins as the expected value, though 10-2 is an equally likely occurrence.

The Sooners should win their first two games easily, then they host Tennessee which shouldnt be too daunting (but for some reason seems to be the kind of game Oklahoma gets upset in). They travel to West Virginia and should come away the winner there, too. After TCU, they face Texas and should be the favorites in a close game.

At the mid-point of the season we assume that there's a 50% chance each that they get back Frank Shannon and that Baker Mayfield becomes eligible; this is arbitrary but it helps their odds in their later contests. Following Kansas State and Iowa State they host Baylor. The Bears might not be quite as good as last year while Oklahoma may be better. Has the gap closed enough from 41-12 that Oklahoma can win it at home? Maybe, maybe not.

With three more wins Oklahoma could end up 10-2 or 11-1, with about a 3% chance of running the table. They don't need to go 12-0 to make the College Football Playoff and we give them a 28% chance of making it. It's true they will be somewhat penalized for not playing a conference championship game but they do play 9 conference games and it depends more on how many 0- and 1-loss teams there are to compete with. Having no championship game to play both hurts and helps the Big Twelve. The bottom line is that the Sooners are Baylor's chief competitor for winning the Big Twelve, and that means their playoff odds are high.

Oklahoma's review could change quite a bit if the Mayfield and Shannon issues are resolved, and we'll update further if needed prior to the first kickoff on August 27.

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SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128