2014 Pre-season Rankings: #33 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Notre Dame Fighting Irish  (Independent #2)

#33	2013 Results	AP #20 USA #24	Strength:#35  Success:#14  Overall:#27
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: beat Rutgers 29-16 (Pinstripe)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #17 | USA #17 | Lindy's #19 | Athlon #13 | Steele #20
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 81%   Playoff odds: <1%

As Everett Golson returns from academic purgatory, four other Notre Dame players are cast into academic limbo. We dock the team for half of the players' value so far, since nothing's been set in stone; that dropped Notre Dame's ranking from #25, which was already lower than the pollsters and magazines put the Irish.

Offense 4.5 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #75 (raw) #48 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #57 (adjusted)

Despite Everett Golson's return we see the offense remaining basically mediocre.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #41 (raw) #39 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.):  #1
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #85 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #2

Everyone is looking for Everett Golson to be the team's savior, and he's the main reason for their high rankings in the pre-season polls. Golson had 2,405 yards and 12 TDs (6 int) in 2012 before his cheating scandal forced him to take a year off and work his way back. Tommy Rees (3,257 yards, 27 TDs, 13 int) finishes his career as Notre Dame's #3 all-time passer (Brady Quinn #1). The Irish might be without their top three receivers from last year, since #1 TJ Jones (1,108 yards, 9 TDs) is gone and #2 DeVaris Daniels (745 yards, 7 TDs) is one of the four players caught up in Cheating Scandal II. #4 Chris Brown (209) is back for sure, and the offensive line (8 sacks allowed last year) should be just as good. But is Golson better for having spent a year off? Remember, when Notre Dame went 12-0 they won based on their defense, not their offense, and certainly not due to their passing.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #83 (raw) #50 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #46 (adj.)

Three of Notre Dame's top four rushers are back, led by Cam McDaniel (705 yards) while #2 George Atkinson (555) departs. The offensive line returns starters Nick Martin and Ronnie Stanley, while Christian Lombard started 1/2 time and two others part-time. Just as important is QB Golson's running ability (298 yards in '12) which should help production improve.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #42    Pass Defense  per-game: #46   Per-attempt: #23
Defense 4.5 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #29 (raw) #30 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #103	'13 picks: #41
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #41 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #115	'14 picks: #67

The Irish front seven only returns two starters, with Stephon Tuitt (7.5 sacks) gone from the D-line and Prince Shembo (5.5 sacks) gone from the linebacker corps. Projected D-line starter Ishaq Williams and backup LB Kendall Moore are two more of the Cheating Scandal Four, and we see Notre Dame's pass rush being very weak this year. The secondary has two starters back for sure and one, KeiVarae Russell, contingent on the findings of the cheating scandal investigation. In all the defense should drop a little or quite a bit, depending on the investigation. Our estimate puts it in the middle of those extremes, as we're assuming nothing will be answered definitively before the season begins.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker/punter Kyle Brindza is back for his senior year; he averaged 41.1 yards per punt and made 20 of 26 field goals last year.
• Return Game:  Both main kick returners are gone; George Atkinson averaged 25.2 yards per kickoff return while TJ Jones had 7.6 yards per punt return.
• Turnovers projection:  The only major difference we project is a drop in the number of interceptions by the defense (13 last year).
• Injury correction:  Both the offense and defense had a lot of injuries last year and that means this year should be stronger relatively.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #8          2013 Recruiting Rank: #9
Recruiting always covers for Notre Dame's year-by-year shortcomings, and another top ten class can help fill in any gaps caused by the cheating scandal. The latest flap to rock the college football world is Notre Dame's discovery that four players were (allegedly) having papers written for them—supposedly by a female tutor in exchange for sex. Victories from years past might have to be vacated, their 12-0 season from 2012 is in jeopardy, and some outlets are reporting 22 players being investigated and four years worth of wins in doubt...anyway, it's a big deal, obviously. Like Al Golden at Miami, Brian Kelly seems snakebit at Notre Dame, from the serious (student videographer falling to his death) to the silly (Mante Teo's "girlfriend") and now, just when Everett Golson's cheating scandal was being forgotten, a new, larger scandal pops up.

2013 Recap 
The Irish lost their first "big game" of the year to Michigan, 41-30, bit beat Michigan State 17-13; the Wolverines ended up 7-6 and the Spartans 13-1. They fell to Oklahoma 35-21 but beat Arizona State 37-34. They handled USC 14-10 but had almost lost to Purdue and Navy, and did lose to Pitt 28-21. Then they almost beat Stanford, falling 27-20. This was a team that didn't know how good or bad it was supposed to be. At least they beat Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl, which seemed right.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Notre Dame #22 which was just right if you average the AP and Coaches polls. They finished 8-4 just like we projected, too. We got three games wrong: we thought they'd beat Oklahoma and lose to ASU, and we missed the Pitt upset. All in all, pretty close.

2014 Outlook

Notre Dame 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Rice	90%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Michigan	52%	W
9/13	Sat	N	Purdue	93%	W
9/27	Sat	N	Syracuse	71%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	Stanford	43%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	North Carolina	67%	W
10/18	Sat	@	Florida State	4%	L
11/1	Sat	@	Navy	54%	W
11/8	Sat	@	Arizona State	34%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	Northwestern	68%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	Louisville	74%	W
11/29	Sat	@	USC	26%	L
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 81%

The Irish could start the season with four wins starting with Rice; they get Michigan at home which may make the difference, with Purdue (in Indianapolis) and Syracuse (East Rutherford) both on neutral fields.

They get Stanford at home, too, but that leans toward the Cardinal; if the four alleged cheaters are cleared the game becomes a tossup more or less. North Carolina should be a win, meaning that there's still a decent chance that Notre Dame goes into Florida State undefeated.

They won't leave that way, though. Not only is FSU a better team, but it will be the Irish's first real road game. Notre Dame has a history of upsetting the #1 team and breaking long winning streaks, but almost all of those happen in South Bend, not when the Irish are on the road.

They have two more road games, and should be able to sneak past Navy, though again, if the accused four are gone, it's a complete tossup (remember, we are straddling the fence as to whether they are available or not). Arizona State looks like a loss.

Northwestern and Louisville at home are likely wins, and USC a loss. Our count is 7-3, with two games that might be affected by the cheating scandal resulting in anywhere from 7-5 to 9-3 straight up. The cumulative estimate is 7-5 and remains that way if the players are cleared, dropping to 6-6 if they are all suspended for the season.

So the Irish appear to be bowl bound again—that is, assuming there is no NCAA fallout from the investigations, though there shouldn't be; grades are an internal matter as long as no coaches had knowledge. With 10 bowl teams on their schedule the Irish could have a shot at the College Football Playoff even at 10-2, but their odds of reaching 10 wins (or the 11 or 12 they'd probably need) look pretty slim; we have them at about a 0.5% chance of being in the top four by season's end, maybe 1% if the four players are cleared.

More Previews • Full coverage of all 128 FBS teams
SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128