SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Mississippi State Bulldogs (SEC #8; West #5) |
 #23 |
2013 Results |
AP #39 USA NR | Strength:#36 Success:#45 Overall:#31 |
| Record: 7-6 | Bowl: beat Rice 44-7 (Liberty) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #36 | USA #29 | Lindy's #43 | Athlon #33 | Steele #21 | ||
| Record: 8-4 | Bowl odds: 98% Playoff odds: <1% | ||
Mississippi State should be much improved this year, and thanks to a very friendly schedule—about the friendliest an SEC team can construct—it ought to show up in the W column, too.
| Offense 8 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #77 (raw) #57 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #49 (adjusted) |
The Bulldogs had a mediocre offense last year and though they improve quite a bit in passing and running (courtesy of Dak Prescott) they aren't about to light up the scoreboard just yet.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #56 (raw) #53 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #58 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #29 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #62 |
Dak Prescott (1,940 yards, 10 TDs, 7 int) is a hot name in college football pre-season talk this year but normally it's not for his passing. This season could be pretty good as his four top targets from last year are back led by Jameon Lewis (923 yards, 5 TDs). He might not make people forget Tyler Russell (875 yards last year, over 5,000 career) who departs after an injury-filled senior season, but production should be up considerably from last year.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #44 (raw) #39 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #31 (adj.) |
Last season Dak Prescott (829 yards, 13 TDs) established himself as one of the nation's best running quarterbacks last year. The Bulldogs lose their top running back from last year, LaDarius Perkins (542 yards), leaving #2 Josh Robinson (459) in charge—and Robinson's ypc (5.9) was much better than Perkins' (4.0). Three starters return to the offensive line: Dillon Day, Ben Beckwith, and Blaine Clausell, all seniors. Though projected O-line starter Damien Robinson was lost to a knee injury recently, the ground game should pick up.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #20 Pass Defense per-game: #20 Per-attempt: #10 | ||
| Defense 8 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #35 (raw) #19 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #81 | '13 picks: #14 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #6 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #71 | '14 picks: #24 | |
Three of four starters return to the Bulldog defensive line, and at linebacker two starters return including top tackler Benardrick McKinney; Deontay Skinner departs. The secondary also has three starters back including Kendrick Market, but Nickoe Whitley (5 interceptions) is gone and projected starter Cedric Jiles will miss a number of games with a hamstring injury. This could be a top ten defense.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Devon Bell was co-punter (41.2 average) and co-placekicker last year (making just 6 of 14 attempts). He takes over as punter full-time from Baker Swedenburg (42.5 ave) while Evan Sobiesk (3 of 6 FG last year) is the kicker.
- Return Game: Jameon Lewis was the main return man for the Bulldogs last year averaging 23.5 on kickoffs and just 2.3 yards per punt. He had a touchdown return on a kickoff in 2012.
- Turnovers projection: The Bulldogs had a +5 fumble margin last year that probably won't repeat, and even as the defense improves we think they'll fall short of last year's 14 picks on defense.
- Injury correction: The defense suffered a lot of injuries last year, and they probably won't face that adversity again this season.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #32 2013 Recruiting Rank: #35
Mississippi State recruits pretty well for an FBS team, but for the SEC, being consistently outside the top 25 makes it pretty hard to compete. Their ranking here puts them 2nd to last in the conference, in a grouping with Arkansas and South Carolina, but SC was #21 in 2012 and Arkansas switched coaches recently. So far 2015 is looking better for the Bulldogs and coach Dan Mullen, now in his 6th year in Starksville.
2013 Recap
Mississippi State fans didn't have a lot to cheer about until the end of the season. The team started 2-3, losing badly to Oklahoma State (21-3), falling to Auburn (at the time not known as a national title contender), and LSU 59-26, while beating Alcorn State and Troy by a combined 113-7. They beat Bowling Green by a point, and Kentucky by 6 before losing three straight to the "real" teams on their schedule (South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama). They needed overtime to beat woeful Arkansas, but they did beat Ole Miss, 17-10, in overtime, and with that one the W is all that mattered. They had their best performance in the Liberty Bowl beating Rice 44-7.
Last year's prediction: We ranked the Bulldogs #39, which is exactly where the AP put them at year's end, and projected a 6-6 record which was correct, too. In the game-by-game picks we made two errors: we thought they'd beat Auburn and lose to Mississippi.
2014 Outlook
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Mississippi State 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | vs. | Southern Miss | 99% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | UAB | 99% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | @ | South Alabama | 91% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | @ | *LSU | 33% | L | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Texas A&M | 62% | W | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | vs. | *Auburn | 37% | L | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | @ | *Kentucky | 74% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Arkansas | 80% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | Tennessee-Martin | 99% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | @ | *Alabama | 12% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Vanderbilt | 91% | W | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | @ | *Mississippi | 32% | L | |||
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Straight up: 8-4 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 98%
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Mississippi State's schedule this year is so much easier than last year's it's hardly funny. Gone from the pre-conference schedule is anyone remotely like Oklahoma State, or even Bowling Green. It's arguable that there's no one as tough as Troy on it. Instead they have Southern Miss, Alabama-Birmingham, and Tennessee-Martin at home, with South Alabama on the road. The latter is by far the toughest test and there's no question they should expect to win all four.
For the SEC, this time instead of South Carolina they get Vanderbilt, an excellent trade this season, and still have Kentucky. That ought to be bowl eligibility right there.
We also think they can beat Arkansas and a weakened Texas A&M at home. They play at LSU, Alabama, and Mississippi this year, and Auburn at home, all of which look like losses.
That adds up to 8-4 and the cumulative estimate settles right around there, too. Nine wins is the next most common outcome, with 11-1 about a 2% chance. Good things happen when you schedule four cupcakes!
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