SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Mississippi Rebels (SEC #4; West #3) |
 #10 |
2013 Results |
AP #33 USA #32 | Strength:#29 Success:#24 Overall:#26 |
| Record: 8-5 | Bowl: beat Georgia Tech 25-17 |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #18 | USA #19 | Lindy's #18 | Athlon #18 | Steele #13 | ||
| Record: 9-3 | Bowl odds: 98% Playoff odds: 1% | ||
We tried putting Mississippi near the top ten last year and they didn't stick; let's see what happens this time if they don't have so many injuries.
| Offense 5 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #58 (raw) #49 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #37 (adjusted) |
The offense has many of its key players back and should be a bit better in 2014. No major surprises are in store unless 300-lb QB Jeremy Liggins somehow ends up starting.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #24 (raw) #28 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #47 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #23 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #49 |
Quarterback Bo Wallace (3,346 yards, 18 TDs, 10 int) is back for his senior year; top receiver Donte Moncrief (938 yards, 6 TDs) is gone along with #3 Ja-Mes Logan (583 yards) but 4 of the top 6 return including #2 Laquon Treadwell (608). The passing game might edge its way into the top 25 in production.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #43 (raw) #34 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #34 (adj.) |
Five Ole Miss players rushed for over 300 yards and three of them are back: I'Tavius Mathers (563 yards), Jaylen Walton (539) and QB Wallace (355). The offensive line returns two starters from last year, Justin Bell and Laremy Tunsil, and one from 2012, senior Aaron Morris who was out with an ACL injury last year. They also have transfer Fahn Cooper who started full-time at Bowling Green in '12. We see the ground game being just as strong this year.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #18 Pass Defense per-game: #45 Per-attempt: #19 | ||
| Defense 9 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #38 (raw) #20 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #95 | '13 picks: #33 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #3 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #65 | '14 picks: #20 | |
Mississippi's D has two key players back from injury who should put up better numbers this year. Defensive end CJ Johnson had 6.5 sacks in 2012 but none last year, while linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche had 10 tackles for loss in '12 and just 2 last year. In all the front seven (4-3) returns five starters, three to the D-Line and two at linebacker including top tackler Sederius Bryant (9.5 tackles for loss). The secondary returns all four starters including Cody Prewitt (6 interceptions), though they recently lost backups Chief Brown (Achilles') and Carlos Davis (ACL). Overall 7 of the top 8 tacklers are back, the pass rush should get a major upgrade, and the defense could be one of the nation's very best.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Ole Miss loses both kicker Andrew Ritter (16 of 24 FG) and punter Tyler Campbell (44.4 average).
- Return Game: RB Jeff Scott averaged 12.7 yards per punt return and had one touchdown. Scott is not back but RB Jaylen Walton is; he averaged 20.6 yards per kickoff return last year and had a touchdown return in 2012.
- Turnovers projection: We don't see a lot of difference in any area here.
- Injury correction: Ole Miss had a lot of injuries on both offense and defense last year that kept them from realizing their potential, so naturally more of that potential will be on display this year—assuming the injuries calm to a normal amount.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #18 2013 Recruiting Rank: #10
Like most SEC teams, Ole Miss recruits in the top 25 regularly and this year is no exception. Amazingly, they rank only 10th out of 14 teams in the conference. And people wonder how the SEC is so good? Hugh Freeze begins his third year here hoping for a breakthrough season after going 7-6 and 8-5 in his first two years. He hopes to avoid the fate of his predecessor, Houston Nutt, who had two good seasons but slipped to 4-8 and 2-10 over the next two years. These recruiting classes will help prevent that, you would think.
2013 Recap
Mississippi started the season with a good win at Vanderbilt, 39-24 and after belting Texas 44-23 they were 3-0 and ready to face Alabama. It didn't go well, especially on offense as they lost 25-0. They also lost the next two weeks against Auburn and Texas A&M and were just 3-3. But an upset win over LSU (27-24) and three easy opponents (Idaho, Arkansas, and Troy) came just in time. They fell to Missouri 24-10 and lost in overtime at rival Mississippi State (17-10) to finish 7-5. But they beat Georgia Tech 25-17 in Music City Bowl to end on a positive note.
Last year's prediction: We picked Ole Miss to improve a lot from 2012's Strength ranking of #27, all the way up to #11. Instead they finished #29. What happened? Injuries explain a lot of it, as the Rebels were slammed on both sides of the ball. We projected an 8-4 record, and straight up we favored them in 9 games. We thought they'd lose to Texas but beat Auburn, and had them beating Missouri and Miss. State. If they'd had a normal amount of injuries would they have been #11? Probably not but they could have won that overtime game against the Bulldogs and our 8-4 pick would have been correct.
2014 Outlook
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Mississippi 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/28 | Thu | vs. | Boise State | 78% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | @ | *Vanderbilt | 87% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | UL-Lafayette | 91% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | vs. | Memphis | 92% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Alabama | 31% | L | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | @ | *Texas A&M | 55% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Tennessee | 89% | W | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | @ | *LSU | 43% | L | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Auburn | 46% | L | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | Presbyterian | 100% | W | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | @ | *Arkansas | 74% | W | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | vs. | *Mississippi State | 68% | W | |||
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Straight up: 9-3 Cume: 9-3 Bowl eligible: 98%
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This year the cumulative estimate for wins for Ole Miss is right between 8 and 9, and game-by-game we call for a 9-3 record with a couple of games very close: Texas A&M on the road and Auburn at home. The only game where the Rebels are a clear underdog is Alabama.
The first four games actually got a bit easier as the month of September progresses. Mississippi hosts Boise State, and while the Broncos should be good they shouldn't win. The Rebels travel to Vanderbilt again, and they should win again. Louisiana-Lafayette and Memphis aren't bad teams by any means but the Rebels ought to beat both of them.
But Mississippi is still not at Alabama's level, and not close enough to be favored at home. Going 4-0 will tell us nothing about the Rebels, but this game will. And if they lose, the next game (Texas A&M) will really tell us whether Ole Miss is going to be as good as we think this year.
Tennessee should be a home win, then another tough 1-2 punch hits in the form of LSU and Auburn; with luck they can split those games. After that they get a freebie (Presbyterian). They end with Arkansas and Mississippi State (this time at home) and though both teams are improved, Ole Miss should be improved more and win both.
Last year we made almost the exact same prediction for Mississippi—moving from below the top 25 to nearly the top ten. It didn't happen. As noted above, a lot of that was due to injuries. So if they're as plagued by injuries in 2014 as they were in 2013, it could be another season of treading water. But by definition, we assume Ole Miss has the average amount of injuries. That means a substantial reduction from last year's carnage.
And if they can beat Texas A&M, LSU, and Auburn—all set to be close games—Mississippi could be 11-1. We give the Rebels just over a 1% chance of being in the College Football Playoff, too. They might have to beat Alabama to do that, but if the defense is as good as we think, they can hang with anyone.
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