SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten #1; East #1) |
 #15 |
2013 Results |
AP #3 USA #3 | Strength:#17 Success:#3 Overall:#9 |
| Record: 13-1 | Bowl: beat Stanford 24-20 (Rose) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #8 | USA #8 | Lindy's #7 | Athlon #11 | Steele #15 | ||
| Record: 9-3 | Bowl odds: 99.6% Playoff odds: 8% | ||
With Braxon Miller gone for Ohio State the Spartans are the clear favorite in the Big Ten race, but a game with Oregon early might determine their chances for something more.
| Offense 6 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #63 (raw) #54 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #36 (adjusted) |
Michigan State accomplished quite a bit last year with a very average offense; this year's model should be quite good.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #86 (raw) #90 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #28 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #65 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #38 |
Connor Cook (2,755 yards, 22 TDs, 6 int) did about as well as could be expected in his first year starting, but more will be asked of him as a junior. He loses the team's leader by receiving yards, Bernie Fowler (622 yards) but everyone else is back including Tony Lippett (613 yards, #1 in receptions) and Macgarrett Kings (513, #2 in receptions). The offensive line might not be as strong but they protected well last year (17 sacks). The passing game should rise to be about average.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #60 (raw) #53 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #41 (adj.) |
The Spartans have Jeremy Langford (1,422 yards, 18 touchdowns) back along with the rest of the top four, so they're set in the backfield. The offensive line returns only two starters, junior Jack Allen and soph Jack Conklin. Travis Jackson started in 2011 and he's back, but reserve Zach Higgins was lost for the year and new starter Connor Kruse will miss some of the season. Still, the team's production should increase and Langford ought to have a fine senior season.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #4 Pass Defense per-game: #11 Per-attempt: #3 | ||
| Defense 5 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #3 (raw) #2 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #29 | '13 picks: #27 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #4 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #29 | '14 picks: #64 | |
The Spartans' defense was lockdown across the board, stuffing the run and pass, keeping opponents off the scoreboard and throwing in a generous helping of big plays. Two starters return to the front four, Shilique Calhoun (7.5 sacks) and Marcus Rush (5 sacks) which should preserve their solid pass rush (32 sacks last year), though projected starter Damon Knox will probably miss a few early games. The Spartans lose two starting linebackers, however: #1 tackler Denicos Allen (5.5 sacks, 11 tackles for loss) is gone along with Max Bullough (8 tackles for loss). Two starters are gone from the secondary, too, the big loss being Thorpe award winner Darqueze Dennard (10 pass breakups). We don't see the team matching last year's 17 interceptions and as a whole the defense will be weaker. But that doesn't mean it won't remain one of the nation's top units.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Kicker Michael Geiger (15 of 16 FG) is back along with punter Mike Sadler (42.5 average).
- Return Game: RJ Shelton (22.1 average on kickoffs) and Macgarrett Kings (10.3 ave on punts) are both back.
- Turnovers projection: The Spartans should be a little luckier on fumbles, but we see a sizable decrease in interceptions by the defense.
- Injury correction: MSU's defense benefitted from a lack of injuries last year, but we doubt it would have been that much different had they had the average amount.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #30 2013 Recruiting Rank: #55
See what a 13-1 year can do? Maybe it wasn't all due to the team's success last year, but certainly it might have nudged a few players who couldn't decide between the Spartans and someone else. The class ranks in the top half of the Big Ten and includes defensive lineman Malik McDowell from Southfield, Michigan. Mark Dantonio has had double-digit wins here in 3 of the last 4 season, with a detour at 7-6 last year.
2013 Recap
Things got off to a slow start as they settled on a new quarterback. The Spartans beat woeful 1-11 Western Michigan just 26-13 and 2-10 South Florida 21-6. At the time losing to Notre Dame 17-13 looked like a good performance but they'd love to have that one back. They topped Iowa 26-14 which looks decent in retrospect, but beat Indiana and Purdue by 14 points each. They finally got on track vs. Illinois and slammed Michigan 29-6. Now 8-1, people were starting to take them seriously; they beat Nebraska, Northwestern, and Minnesota to finish 11-1 but few gave them a chance against Ohio State. They belted the Buckeyes 34-24, then an underdog once again, they beat Stanford in the Rose Bowl 24-20.
Last year's prediction: We only ranked the Spartans #37 and predicted an 8-4 season. When they were 7-1 everything was going exactly like our game-by-game picks and at that point they didn't look much better than #37. But they kept getting better each week and won the late games instead of losing 3 of them. On offense and defense, our only accurate picks were predicting the defense would remain in the top 5 and garner many more interceptions.
2014 Outlook
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Michigan State 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/29 | Fri | vs. | Jacksonville St. | 97% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | @ | Oregon | 22% | L | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | vs. | Eastern Michigan | 99% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | vs. | Wyoming | 98% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Nebraska | 84% | W | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | @ | *Purdue | 96% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | @ | *Indiana | 45% | L | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan | 70% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Ohio State | 62% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | @ | *Maryland | 51% | W | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Rutgers | 91% | W | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | @ | *Penn State | 79% | W | |||
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Straight up: 10-2 Cume: 9-3 Bowl eligible: 99.6%
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Michigan State opens with Jacksonville State and that game's not important. The one that follows is. Not for the Big Ten championship which it doesn't affect, but for the College Football Playoff hunt, which the Spartans could be in the thick of.
We favor Oregon to win quite handily at home, but Michigan State's defense has a good chance of keeping that game very close and if they win it, they have a head up above most of the Pac-12 with the CFB committee. Lose it and the Pac-12 is judged better than the Big Ten when decision time comes.
Eastern Michigan and Wyoming are gimmes before the Big Ten race starts, and we favor Michigan State in almost every game. The exceptions are: at Indiana, a very close loss; and at Maryland, a game that could go either way. They should beat Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan, Rutgers, Penn State—even Ohio State, which post-Braxton Miller has gone from a tossup to a likely win.
The cumulative projection takes into account all the chances for upset and settles on 9 as the expected number of wins, and 9-3 is the single most likely outcome too. But straight up we have the Spartans around 10-2—maybe 11-1 if the Indiana game swings their way, or 9-3 if Maryland doesn't.
As the top team in the East we expect them to go to the Big Ten championship game and probably play Wisconsin; they'll be favored in a tight game. If they manage to go 13-0, or 12-1, or even 11-2 depending on how they get there, they have some chance of being in the top 4 and going to the College Football Playoff; as the favorite in a tight Big Ten race we put their odds at around 8%; those odds would take a big jump with a win at Oregon.
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