SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten #3; East #3) |
 #18 |
2013 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#55 Success:#72 Overall:#58 |
| Record: 5-7 | Bowl: None | ||
| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #69 | Athlon #58 | Steele #51 | ||
| Record: 9-3 | Bowl odds: 98% Playoff odds: 2% | ||
Double down: phrase, slang: When something you believed in is proven untrue, stick to your guns regardless of the past evidence, and believe in it even more.
That's one definition, and it fits our review of Indiana. Last year we expected a big improvement that didn't happen. So of course this year we are predicting an even bigger improvement, completely out of line with the conventional wisdom.
| Offense 8 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #17 (raw) #10 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #5 (adjusted) |
Indiana's offense was potent last year, and thanks to what should be a very strong offensive line it could be even better this season.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #18 (raw) #16 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #32 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #19 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #10 |
Indiana had three strong options at quarterback last year but now they're down to one. Nate Sudfeld (2,523 yards, 21 TDs, 9 int) will helm the team as Tre Roberson (1,128 yards, 15:4) transferred. After starting in 2012 Cameron Coffman barely played. Indiana loses their top two receivers in Cody Latimer (1,096 yards, 9 TDs) and Kofi Hughes (739, 7), while Shane Wynn (633) is back for his senior year. In all just 4 of the top 9 return. Without a provent backup and missing their top two Sudfeld will have a tough time matching last year's production, but a much-improved offensive line (18 sacks last year) should help keep it from slipping much.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #31 (raw) #22 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #12 (adj.) |
Tevin Coleman (958 yards, 12 TDs) is back; #2 Stephen Houston (753 yards) is not. Also, with QB Roberson gone the QB position isn't a running threat any more. But check out the offensive line: Starters Collin Rahrig, Bernard Taylor, Jason Spriggs, and Ralston Evans are all back, along with 2 more half-time starters, meaning that essentially the entire starting lineup is back. Moreover, 2012 starters Dan Feeney and Payton Eckert return from redshirting in '13. This is a very strong and deep offensive line, and behind them the running game should be strong, too.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #103 Pass Defense per-game: #125 Per-attempt: #115 | ||
| Defense 9 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #119 (raw) #110 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #108 | '13 picks: #89 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #89 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #104 | '14 picks: #31 | |
Last year with 7 starters returning we predicted a decent improvement in Indiana's defense from #109 to to #97. There was no improvement as it fell to #110—and in raw terms it got worse, from #107 to #119 which gave the impression it regressed terribly. This year we're again predicting an improvement and we'll see if this one sticks. Coordinator Mark Knorr is going with a 3-4 this year; two starters are back on the defensive line and Nick Mangieri jumps from the D-Line to the linebacker corps, giving them four returning starters there including top tackler David Cooper. The secondary returns three starters; Greg Heban is gone but Mark Murphy returns along with Tim Bennett who had 20 pass breakups. In fact so many pass breakups return that we see a huge jump coming in interceptions, up from 7 last year. In all 13 of the 14 top tacklers are back from last year and Kevin Wilson is sure the defense is ready to make a big leap. We agree, but note that we aren't even calling for them to be average—just to make some progress and not be horrible this season.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Erich Toth (40.6 punting average) is back but excellent kicker Mitch Ewald (9 of 11 FG last year) is gone.
- Return Game: WR Shane Wynn remains the team's main return man; last year he averaged 23.1 yards on kickoffs and 14.0 on punts with one touchdown return. RB Tevin Coleman had a touchdown return in 2012.
- Turnovers projection: We see a lot more picks coming from the defense—not a hard prediction to live up to as they only had 7 all last year.
- Injury correction: The offense managed to be top ten in scoring while suffering more injuries than almost any other FBS team last year, and that bodes well for this year's success if they have fewer injuries as expected. Strangely, the underperforming defense can't use this excuse as they had an average amount of injuries.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #28 2013 Recruiting Rank: #45
Kevin Sumlin brought in a solid recruiting class this year, and it's clearly in the top half of the Big Ten. More of its ranking is due to quantity than quality but the buld are solid 3-stars. In reaction to the defense's problems last year he made a switch at coordinator. Despite not living up to expectations last year, the team did improve—from 1-11 in Wilson's first year, to 4-8 in 2012, to 5-7 last year.
2013 Recap
Indiana's offense was on display early as they smashed Indiana State 73-35—but their defense looked suspect, too. They lost game 2 to Navy 41-35 demonstrating that their D was going to still be a problem. The Big Ten season was full of shootouts; the lost to Michigan 63-47, to Minnesota 42-39, and beat Illinois 52-35 and Purdue 56-36. The better the team, the worse the loss in general, as Wisconsin and Ohio State beat them 93-17 combined. They were 3-5 in the Big Ten but their non-conference schedule had a 9-, 10-, and 12-win team on it, and they only won once of those (Bowling Green) and ended up 5-7, missing a bowl game for the 6th straight year.
Last year's prediction: We thought Indiana would go 7-5 and go to a bowl game. It's not like we were putting them in the top 25 or anything ridiculous :D We had them going from #77 to #42, and they ended up #57—making a bit over half the progress we thought they would. On offense they exceeded our expectations, jumping from #34 to #10 (we predicted #15). But as mentioned the defense didn't improve at all. On the game-by-game chart we thought they'd beat Navy and Minnesota; they didn't, and that was the difference. Put another way: last year we thought they'd jump 35 ranking spots and they jumped 20. If they do the same thing this year they'll end up #35.
2014 Outlook
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Indiana 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | vs. | Indiana State | 100% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | @ | Bowling Green | 71% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | @ | Missouri | 48% | L | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | vs. | *Maryland | 65% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | vs. | North Texas | 96% | W | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | @ | *Iowa | 61% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan State | 55% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | @ | *Michigan | 50% | L | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Penn State | 89% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | @ | *Rutgers | 79% | W | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | @ | *Ohio State | 41% | L | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | vs. | *Purdue | 98% | W | |||
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Straight up: 9-3 Cume: 9-3 Bowl eligible: 98%
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Now this is doubling down. Indiana has largely the same tough schedule as last year—still Bowling Green and Missouri, but North Texas instead of Navy and that makes thing easier—but now we favor them in almost every game. The only game that's a clear loss is the road trip to Ohio State, and that one's become closer since Braxton Miller was lost for the year.
Missouri and Michigan are also road games, but those are tossups. We take the Hoosiers on the road at Iowa, and even at home against Michigan State (though that's very close).
In seven other games, Indiana is anywhere from a gimme (Indiana State, North Texas, Purdue), to heavy favorite (Penn State, Rutgers) to comfortably favored (Bowling Green, Maryland). Even if the other games seem a bit of a reach, winning the games above gives Indiana bowl eligibility with a win to spare—which is why they're close to certainly in bowl eligibility percentage.
The cumulative estimate is almost exactly on the border of 8 and 9 wins, so we expect an 8-4 or 9-3 record. If Indiana is really this good, however, you can see how easily the season could be really good; if you add in the two tossup games they're 11-1, and maybe Ohio State is really bad without Braxton, and Indiana goes 12-0! That's how we give them a 2% chance to go to the College Football Playoff.
But let's remember last year's lack of improvement on defense and mere iterative improvement in W/L record. We think that's the worst-case scenario, that Indiana improves only one win, from 5-7 to 6-6. It may seem pretty lame compared to what we've discussed above, but it would get them back to a bowl game. In terms of expectations I don't think that's a bad place to start: the Hoosiers should expect bowl eligibility this year, and anything else is just a bonus.
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