SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (ACC #8; Coastal #5) |
 #53 |
2013 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#26 Success:#52 Overall:#34 |
| Record: 7-6 | Bowl: Lost to Ole Miss 25-17 (Music City) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP NR | USA #48 | Lindy's #47 | Athlon #47 | Steele #46 | ||
| Record: 7-5 | Bowl odds: 78% Playoff odds: <1% | ||
There's a lot of consensus on the Ramblin' Wreck ranking in the high-40s this year, and we can't say that we think it's too far off.
| Offense 6 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #30 (raw) #28 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #40 (adjusted) |
No more experimenting with the pass; coach Paul Johnson removed the shotgun from this year's arsenal and implemented a hurry-up package. In other words, more running the ball, and, more running the ball.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #122 (raw) #121 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #4 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #123 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #5 |
Vad Lee (1,561 yards, 10 TD, 11 int) had the normal stats line for a Tech QB, including the 46% completion rate. Justin Thomas (131 yards, 1:2) takes over and will get his chance to top the 50% mark this year. Three of the top four receivers are back but they're missing #1 Robert Godhigh (471 yards). #2 was Darren Waller with 367. The O-line wasn't bad at protection but their top 5 ranking is due solely to the small number of pass attempts. The coaches agreed that the team actually tried to pass the ball too much last year so the meager production should slip further.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #7 (raw) #3 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #8 (adj.) |
Rushing is GT's bread and butter but this year they lose a lot of the fixin's. Gone are the team's top three rushers from last year, David Sims (884 yards, 11 TDs), Robert Godhigh (744, 7), and Vad Lee (513, 8). Tech had nine more who topped 100 yards and all of them are back, so there's no shortage of players who will step up and insure that the Yellow Jackets remain a powerful rushing team. Zach Laskey (485 yards) will get lots of carries this fall. The offensive line returns two starters, Shaquille Mason and Trey Braun. Overall despite the extra carries we see production dropping a bit as they arguably lose their top three ball carriers and top three linemen.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #10 Pass Defense per-game: #58 Per-attempt: #86 | ||
| Defense 4 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #22 (raw) #35 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #14 | '13 picks: #75 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #51 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #44 | '14 picks: #79 | |
Georgia Tech can defend the run almost as well as they can execute it, but the defensive line may be weaker after losing three starters. Adam Gotsis (5.5 sacks, 9 tackles for loss) is back but Jeremiah Attaochu (12.5 sacks) is among those gone, and we project a big fall in the sack count. At linebacker in the 4-2-5 they lose Jabari Hunt-Days who is ineligible in 2014. The secondary is actually in the best shape after getting back some key players from 2012 but it's not enough to keep the defense as a whole from falling.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Kicker Harrison Butker (10 of 14 FG) is back for his sophomore year while punter Sean Poole (42.3 average) departs.
- Return Game: DeAndre Smelter averaged 11.3 yards per punt return while Lynn Griffen averaged 26.5 on kickoffs; both are back. In addition, safety Jamal Golden (redshirt last year) had two touchdown kickoff returns in 2012.
- Turnovers projection: We don't see a lot of change from last year's figures.
- Injury correction: The Wreck had roughly the normal rate of injuries.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #62 2013 Recruiting Rank: #92
Better than last year, that's for sure, but last year's class was tiny. This one still ranks near the very bottom of the ACC. It has to be hard to recruit for this offense in an era of high-flying passing offenses. Paul Johnson came here 6 years ago and has been a 1-man experiment on whether the triple-option can survive in the 21st century in big-time college football. So far the answer is yes, it can survive but the question as to whether it can truly thrive is still unanswered.
2013 Recap
Georgia Tech beat Elon by 70, Duke by 24, North Carolina by 8. Then they lost three games with expanded loss margins of 7, 15, and 18. Even the unpredictable team, they beat Syracuse 56-0 as part of another 3-game winning streak to sit 6-3. They lost to Clemson 55-31, beat Alabama A&M 66-7, and took Georgia into double overtime before losing 41-35. They lost their bowl game for the 8th time in the last 9 years to Mississippi, 25-17, lending credence to the theory that teams that have lead time to prepare do better against the triple-option. This year the evidence was inconclusive though, as FBS teams with an extra week were 2-1 against the Wreck, while teams with normal prep time were 4-4.
Last year's prediction: We ranked Georgia Tech #34, which pretty closely matches their resulting Strength though not their Success. We projected an 8-4 record, picking every game correctly except for Virginia Tech.
2014 Outlook
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Georgia Tech 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | vs. | Wofford | 98% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | @ | Tulane | 78% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | Georgia Southern | 97% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | @ | *Virginia Tech | 31% | L | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Miami FL | 52% | W | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | vs. | *Duke | 58% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | @ | *North Carolina | 32% | L | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | @ | *Pittsburgh | 42% | L | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Virginia | 64% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | @ | *NC State | 63% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Clemson | 39% | L | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | @ | Georgia | 10% | L | |||
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Straight up: 7-5 Cume: 7-5 Bowl eligible: 78%
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Georgia Tech should have another middling year: yes, a bowl game, but no, not a memorable season—unless they can win the multitude of close games that they'll face in the ACC. The only game in which they're a heavy underdog is at Georgia.
They'll beat Wofford, of course, but the Terriers should be good at defending the triple-option since they run it, so the game could be low-scoring. Remember Georgia Tech 10, Gardner-Webb 7? Maybe not that low, but lower than 70-0.
Tulane should be a win, too, and Georgia Southern is another near-gimme. Then once again they face Virginia Tech and Miami in games 4 and 5 and we have them moderate underdogs in the former and close to 50/50 in the latter. They're very slight favorites over Duke.
As you can see as the ACC season commences, there is a lot of parity in the conference. UNC and Pitt are slight faves, then Tech should beat Virginia and NC State though it's by no means certain. Clemson? A question mark this year.
The cumulative estimate comes out to 7-5, leaning toward 6-6 like the game-by-game count yields. A couple more close wins and they're 9-3, or even 11-1. Conversely a slip to 5-7 isn't hard to envision with some bad luck. It looks like the ACC is going to have a mess of teams that finish 4-4 in conference play, with almost everyone bowl-eligible.
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