SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
Fresno State Bulldogs (Mtn West #3; West #1) |
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2013 Results |
AP #27 USA #27 | Strength:#50 Success:#26 Overall:#47 |
Record: 11-2 | Bowl: Lost to USC 45-20 (Las Vegas) |
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2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP NR | USA #46 | Lindy's #64 | Athlon #62 | Steele #52 | ||
Record: 8-4 | Bowl odds: 93% Playoff odds: <1% |
Without Derek Carr the offense won't be the same...but the defense might make up for a surprising amount of that.
Offense 5 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #6 (raw) #17 (adjusted for opposition) |
2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #51 (adjusted) |
Fresno State's offense loses a quarterback who threw 50 touchdown passes and the receiver who caught 24 of them.
Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #1 (raw) #2 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #8 |
2014 Projected Passing Rank: #11 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #11 |
Derek Carr (5,082 yards, 50 TDs, 8 int) won't be hard to replace—just kidding. Carr's 5,000+ yards and 50 touchdowns are a tough act to follow, but Duke transfer Brandon Connette (1,212 yards, 13 TDs, 6 int) isn't a bad replacement. Two of Fresno's three 1,000 yard receivers are gone—#1 Davante Adams (131 rec, 1,718 yards, 24 TDs) and #2 Isaiah Burse (100 rec, 1,026 yards, 6 TDs)—while Josh Harper (1,011 yards, 13 TDs) is back. Five others topped 100 yards and four are back. The offensive line did an insane job—11 sacks allowed—considering Carr threw the ball 659 times. There's still a lot of talent here to use when assembling a massive passing attack and Fresno State will again be among the top teams, just not vying for the #1 spot. Top ten is a more realistic goal.
Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #82 (raw) #92 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #62 (adj.) |
The Bulldogs have a running game, too, it just isn't as good and doesn't get the same press. This year the top three rushers are back including Josh Quezada (807 yards) and Marteze Waller (646); they combined for 13 touchdowns. The offensive line returns three starters, Cody Wichmann, Justin Northern, and Bo Bonnheim. With the passing game almost certainly dropping back a bit the ground game can help pick up some of the slack, and new QB Connette rushed for 337 yards and 14 touchdowns last year at Duke.
2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #44 Pass Defense per-game: #119 Per-attempt: #102 | ||
Defense 8 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #86 (raw) #90 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #18 | '13 picks: #61 |
'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #67 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #7 | '14 picks: #28 |
The Bulldog D-line returns just 1 of 3 starters, but at linebacker all four starters return including Ejiro Ederaine (10 sacks) and Donavon Lewis (5 sacks). They're a big reason why Fresno could have a true (adjusted) top ten pass rush in '14 after getting to the quarterback 40 times last year. Three of four defensive backs return, too, including Derron Smith (7 interceptions). We foresee a big increase in picks from all the returning pass defenses and the return of Sean Alston who had 5 interceptions in 2012 but missed 2013. [correction: Alston is returning as a student assistant; his injuries have ended his playing career]. Overall the top six tacklers are back and we think the defense will go from poor to basically average, but a good step up.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Garrett Swanson (43.1 average on punts) and Colin McGuire (11 of 16 FG) are both back.
- Return Game: Isaiah Burse returned two punts for touchdowns last year while averaging 12.5 yards per return; he departs, while kickoff return man Dillon Root (21.5 average) is back.
- Turnovers projection: Here's the biggest problem we see: interceptions. Connette threw almost as many to generate 1,200 yards as Carr did in generating 5,000. They'll be using the same offense, playing hurry-up and throwing the ball a lot, so we see a lot more than 8 interceptions happening. Luckily the defense ought to really pick up the pace on picks (from 14 last year), to keep the margin reasonable. But it's quicker for Connette to get to 8 than it is for the defense to reach 14.
- Injury correction: The offense had great luck avoiding injuries last year, another reason for the offense to be downgraded going forward.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #93 2013 Recruiting Rank: #69
Tim DeRuyter's 3rd class is a step down from last year's and sits right in the middle of the Mountain West. His two seasons here have been among the team's best in a decade at 9 wins and 11 wins, but then again he had Derek Carr for both of those years. The important test is to see how he does without.
2013 Recap
The Bulldogs won 10 straight games before losing, but it wasn't that simple. They had to beat Rutgers in overtime, 52-51, have a game against Colorado cancelled, and escape Boise State by a point 41-40, before they even got to 3-0. They were up on Hawaii 42-3 when the Rainbow Warriors mounted an insane rally and lost just 42-37. They won another overtime game against San Diego State for their 7th win. Numbers 8, 9, and 10 were easier, and game 11 was the shootout with San Jose State that they finally lost. They rebounded to beat Utah State for the MWC title, but couldn't hang with USC and lost the Las Vegas Bowl 45-20.
Last year's prediction: We put the Bulldogs #48, pretty close to their Strength rating at season's end. We projected a 9-3 season, and picked SDSU and SJSU to beat the Bulldogs. They needed overtime to win the first one and they lost the second one.
2014 Outlook
Fresno State 2014 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | @ | USC | 16% | L | |||
9/6 | Sat | @ | Utah | 22% | L | |||
9/13 | Sat | vs. | Nebraska | 53% | W | |||
9/20 | Sat | vs. | Southern Utah | 97% | W | |||
9/26 | Fri | @ | *New Mexico | 82% | W | |||
10/3 | Fri | vs. | *San Diego State | 80% | W | |||
10/10 | Fri | @ | *UNLV | 69% | W | |||
10/17 | Fri | @ | *Boise State | 28% | L | |||
11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Wyoming | 87% | W | |||
11/8 | Sat | vs. | *San Jose State | 81% | W | |||
11/22 | Sat | @ | *Nevada | 46% | L | |||
11/29 | Sat | vs. | *Hawaii | 90% | W | |||
Straight up: 8-4 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 93%
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The Bulldogs have a tradition of playing a very tough non-conference schedule with lots of Pac-12 and Big Ten teams. They've gotten away from it occasionally but they definitely have it back this year as they visit Pac-12 teams USC and Utah and then host Nebraska from the Big Ten.
They just played USC in a bowl game and it didn't go very well, and this time probably won't go any better. Utah should be somewhat easier...in theory. Actually we think it's Nebraska, at home, that they can beat but it's basically a tossup in our book.
Then they get a break with Southern Utah and some of this year's easier Mountain West teams before they face Boise State on the road, a probable loss. They should win at least 3 of 4 at the end with Nevada being another tossup game.
With seven solid wins and two tossups, a 7-5 to 9-3 year would make sense. The cumulative estimate is somewhere between 7 and 8 wins. How the Bulldogs' season ends up depends on whether the team can still pull out the tight games like they did last year; if they can, they should be back in the MWC title game, probably a rematch against Boise State.
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