SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Florida State Seminoles (ACC #1; Atlantic #1) |
 #1 |
2013 Results |
AP #1 USA #1 | Strength:#1 Success:#1 Overall:#1 |
| Record: 14-0 | Bowl: beat Auburn 34-31 |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #1 | USA #1 | Lindy's #1 | Athlon #1 | Steele #1 | ||
| Record: 12-0 | Bowl odds: 99.9% Playoff odds: 84% | ||
Unanimous #1 at the end of last season, the Seminoles are the unanimous #1 at the beginning of this one.
| Offense 7 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #2 (raw) #2 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #2 (adjusted) |
Hesiman winner Jameis Winston is back, and that's a mighty good start.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #15 (raw) #15 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #80 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #10 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #63 |
Jameis Winston (4,057 yards, 40 TDs, 10 int) led FSU to their first national title since 1999 and he's back to go for two in a row. Two of his four main targets are back—#1 Rashad Green (1,128 yards, 9 TDs) and TE Nick O'Leary (557 yards, 7 TDs)—while #2 Kelvin Benjamin (1,011 yards, 15 TDs) and #3 Kenny Shaw (933, 6) are gone. The O-Line gave up 33 sacks last year and that should improve with four starters back. Overall it's possible for Winston to surpass his previous numbers, which means he has a shot at back-to-back Heisman trophies. But he's unlikely to blow those numbers away, meaning he probably finishes 3rd.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #29 (raw) #31 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #35 (adj.) |
The 'Noles lose Devonta Freeman (1,016 yards, 14 TDs) and James Wilder (#3 w/563 yards, 8 TDs) while Karlos Williams (730, 11) is back. The offensive line returns starters Tre Jackson, Josue Matias, Bobby Hart, and Cameron Erving, all seniors. Center Austin Barron is a senior, too. The offensive line almost makes up for the losses at running back and the ground game should be roughly the same.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #9 Pass Defense per-game: #6 Per-attempt: #1 | ||
| Defense 6 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #1 (raw) #4 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #43 | '13 picks: #1 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #8 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #49 | '14 picks: #8 | |
The defensive line returns two starters but two are gone including Timmy Jernigan. At linebacker Terrance Smith is the lone returnee, with top tackler Telvin Smith (7.5 tackles for loss) and Christian Jones gone. The secondary has three starters back but loses Lamarcus Joyner (5.5 sacks). In all five of the team's top six tacklers are gone, but there is plenty of talent to keep the defense from falling out of the top ten.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Groza award winner Roberto Aguayo (21 of 22 field goals last year) is back along with punter Cason Beatty (41.1 average).
- Return Game: Kermit Whitfield (36.4 average on kickoffs, 2 touchdowns) is back while Kenny Shaw (9.7 average on punts) is not. WR Rashad Greene and safety Tyler Hunter combined for 3 touchdown punt returns in 2012 and both are available.
- Turnovers projection: We don't think Florida State will have nearly as many picks on defense as last year. For one thing, 26 is a pretty high target, and 2nd they don't return enough pass defenses (breakups + interceptions) to point to that high of a figure.
- Injury correction: FSU had very few injuries on offense, and a lower-than-average amount on defense, one reason they were able to sustain their high level of play all season. It might be a bit rockier this year if they have an average amount.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #3 2013 Recruiting Rank: #11
Look at that—win a national championship and have a great recruiting class the next year. Makes sense. The Seminoles bring in two 5-star recruits from the state of Florida, running back Dalvin Cook (Miami) and wide receiver Ermon Lane (Homestead). Jimbo Fisher was still on a probationary status of sorts with fans until winning the title last season; the team did well in his first three years but it seemed tentative, and the way they lost to NC State and Florida in 2012 was unsettling. Now there's no doubt he's the head coach they want.
2013 Recap
Already 4-0, FSU was ready to face their first challenge: Maryland, ranked #25 and 4-0. They won 63-0. Their next test? Undefeated Clemson, ranked #3 (higher than the Seminoles who were #5). FSU won on the road 51-14. Still people didn't realize this was probably the best team in the country, and pointed to the easy schedule. Two games later, they faced undefeated Miami and won 41-14. They won out against a collection of losing teams including a disappointing Florida (37-7) and facing Duke (45-7) in the ACC title game didn't do them any favors. Against Auburn in the title game they got gut-punched early and were down 21-3; from the mid-2nd quarter on they dominated, 31-10 but people still talked about how Auburn may have played better. The sad thing is that probably one of the best college football teams of all time didn't have the schedule to prove it.
Last year's prediction: We didn't pick FSU to win the national championship. But we did rank them #9, higher than most of the rest of the pack (Phil Steele put them #4). We projected a 10-2 season, with game-by-game picks that put them 11-1—Clemson had a tiny edge in a 50/50 game. Obviously they beat Clemson and Florida (a 51%) and the games weren't close at all.
2014 Outlook
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Florida State 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | @ | Oklahoma State | 93% | L | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | The Citadel | 100% | L | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | vs. | *Clemson | 96% | L | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | @ | *NC State | 99% | L | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Wake Forest | 99% | L | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | @ | *Syracuse | 97% | L | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | Notre Dame | 96% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Thu | @ | *Louisville | 96% | L | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Virginia | 99% | L | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | @ | *Miami FL | 94% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Boston College | 99% | L | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | vs. | Florida | 94% | L | |||
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Straight up: 12-0 Cume: 12-0 Odds of 12-0: 68%
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We don't project Florida State to be as good as they were last year; in fact they are about three and a half points worse. But there's no one within a touchdown of them, and that means no major challenges show up until the College Football Playoff, which we have them basically a shoo-in to make.
With no opponent under 90%, there's seemingly little difference between Wake Forest at home and Louisville on the road. Top 25 Florida has almost no more chance than The Citadel. Oklahoma State in Arlington, Notre Dame in Tallahassee, it's all the same.
Our odds give FSU a ridiculous 68% chance to go 12-0, and even throwing in the ACC title game and two possible CFP opponents gives the 'Noles a 30% chance to go 15-0 this year.
This year's schedule looks tougher when using last year's teams, but Oklahoma State, Clemson, and Louisville all look weaker than 2013. Miami and Notre Dame look about the same. Only Florida looks like a significant upgrade and they're the only team that made our pre-season top 25.
We can only hope that some of these teams turn out to be really good. As it is, there's no way FSU can live up to these projections. But Vegas odds have FSU favored in every game by 2 or more touchdowns, too, so we're not alone—there's the expectation that the Seminoles are going to dominate their schedule. And really, they did it last year, so why not this year?
In short, if FSU falls short of the College Football Playoff it will be a big surprise. And hopefully there will be an undefeated challenger or two going into the playoffs to build some excitement, because from the looks of it FSU's regular season is going to be devoid of it—though Seminole fans should be happy.
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