SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Florida Gators (SEC #7; East #3) |
 #21 |
2013 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#49 Success:#76 Overall:#39 |
| Record: 4-8 | Bowl: None | ||
| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #27 | USA #27 | Lindy's #25 | Athlon #23 | Steele #19 | ||
| Record: 8-4 | Bowl odds: 95% Playoff odds: <1% | ||
Florida had their worst year since 1979, but they should right the ship in 2014—as long as they remain even somewhat injury-free.
| Offense 6 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #116 (raw) #99 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #73 (adjusted) |
Florida's offense was terrible in 2013, and they're moving to a hurry-up spread to fix it. Things will be better, but probably not "fixed."
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #111 (raw) #104 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #71 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #97 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #85 |
Last year's woeful passing attack was largely the result of Jeff Driskel (477 yards, 2 TD, 3 int) getting hurt early in the year and Tyler Murphy (1,216, 6:5) getting hurt not long after. Murphy transferred and Driskel, who had 1,646 yards, 12:5 in 2012, is back. Does this mean the passing game is going to take off? No—look at 2012's #116 ranking. But it should improve, despite the loss of two of the top three receivers: Solomon Patton (556 yards) is gone, while #2 Quinton Dunbar (548) returns. The move to a faster pace will get the passing game off the ground, but don't expect fireworks.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #90 (raw) #63 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #40 (adj.) |
Florida's ground game was about average for an FBS school, which is pretty bad if you're in the SEC. But with the top four rushers back things should improve. Mack Brown (543 yards) returns with Kelvin Taylor (508) and Matt Jones (339) who will form a committee again. The offensive line was fragmented by injuries but full-time starter Max Garcia is back along with half-time starters Tyler Moore, DJ Humphries, and Trenton Brown, while 2012 starter Chaz Green returns too. Look for a better rushing attack but again, don't expect miracles; the offensive problems at Florida have been going on a long time.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #6 Pass Defense per-game: #7 Per-attempt: #12 | ||
| Defense 7 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #16 (raw) #7 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #61 | '13 picks: #44 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #5 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #59 | '14 picks: #47 | |
Florida's defense started the year as one of the best in the nation, but as injuries piled up weaknesses emerged, and by the time they faced Georgia Southern, their formerly #1 rushing defense was crushed. For the year, however, they still rank in the top ten in many areas, and that's where we expect them to be in 2014. The defensive line looks to be stronger this year, and at linebacker the team's two top tacklers, Michael Taylor and Anthony Morrison, are back. The secondary loses Jaylen Watkins and Cody Riggs but Vernon Hargreaves (11 pass breakups) is back. The key will be injuries, as in, they won't lose as many starters to injury as they did in '13. Despite the pickup in offensive pace, which hurts the defense, we think Florida will have a top ten defense again, this time start to finish.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Florida used freshman kicker Austin Hardin, who hit 4 of 12 field goals, before settling on Francisco Velez who hit 6 of 8; both are back. Punter Johnny Townshend (42.0 average) is also back but Kyle Christie might get his job back.
- Return Game: Both Solomon Patton (29.2 average on kickoffs; 1 touchdown) and Marcus Roberson (9.2 on punts) are gone. Andre Debose had a kickoff return touchdown in 2012 (28.3 ave) and is back after redshirting last year.
- Turnovers projection: We don't see much change here; the QBs didn't throw a lot of picks last year and the defense isn't takeaway-based.
- Injury correction: Florida was the unluckiest team in the injury department except for Idaho, with both the offense and defense getting hit hard. We expect a fairly strong return to form based on this.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #14 2013 Recruiting Rank: #5
Here's another reason Florida will bounce back: recruiting has been stellar the last few years, as usual. This year's group only ranks about 9th in the SEC but that's nitpicking. The class includes corner Jalen Tabor, a consensus 5-star. Head coach Will Muschamp is certainly on the short-list of coaches on the hot seat after last year's 4-8 debacle. It seems like decades ago when Florida went 11-2, even though that was 2012!
2013 Recap
It's hard to pinpoint exactly when it was clear something was very wrong with Florida. There were signs all along the way, but even at 4-4 they had lost only to very good teams. The loss to Vanderbilt seemed to be a turning point, and by then the injuries had piled up enough to make people realize the Gators weren't pulling out of the tailspin. Of course, the real kicker was the loss to Georgia Southern; other than the Eagles, every team that beat them was an FBS bowl team.
Last year's prediction: Ouch. All we can do is compare our pick for Florida with everyone else's. We had the Gators at #16, lower than the AP, coaches, Lindy's, Athlon, or Phil Steele. But only by 3 to 6 spots. We projected an 8-4 record with game-by-game picks showing 7-5. Without being able to predict injuries, no one would have seen Florida going from 11-2 to 4-8.
2014 Outlook
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Florida 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | vs. | Idaho | 99% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Eastern Michigan | 99% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | *Kentucky | 87% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | @ | *Alabama | 13% | L | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | @ | *Tennessee | 72% | W | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | vs. | *LSU | 51% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Missouri | 63% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | N | *Georgia | 34% | L | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | @ | *Vanderbilt | 82% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | vs. | *South Carolina | 52% | W | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | Eastern Kentucky | 99% | W | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | @ | Florida State | 6% | L | |||
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Straight up: 9-3 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 95%
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The annual game with Florida State insures that Florida will have a harder schedule than almost every team in the country in most years. And when they play Alabama and LSU from the West? Yeah, they pretty much have it worse than anyone for most of the schedule. Thank goodness for non-conference games where they can schedule Idaho, Eastern Michigan, and Eastern Kentucky.
In the SEC we give Florida wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, and Vanderbit, and that's enough to get to 7-5 and a bowl game. LSU and South Carolina are tossups that could push them to 9-3, but the cumulative estimate is in-between a 7 and 8-win season.
The Gators should have a good rebound year and basically be back where they were before last year's nightmare. But it probably won't be back to 2012 again. Even if they did manage to beat both Alabama and Florida State, they'd probably have to beat Alabama again in the SEC championship...just to get a chance to play Florida State again in the playoffs!
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SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
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