2014 Pre-season Rankings: #8 BYU Cougars

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

BYU Cougars  (Independent #1)

#8	2013 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#25  Success:#46  Overall:#29
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Lost to Washington 31-16 (Fight Hunger)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #43 | USA #38 | Lindy's #32 | Athlon #35 | Steele #35
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 12%

We have a few off-the-charts rankings in our top 128, but this is the big one. Everyone else has BYU treading water this year while we have them taking off in a rocketship.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #56 (raw) #36 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #8 (adjusted)

With Taysom Hill back along with one of the country's best offensive lines, BYU's offense could really be something this year.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #75 (raw) #62 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #109
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #35 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #66

Quarterback Taysom Hill (2,938 yards, 19 TDs, 14 int) is a decent passer, productive but not that efficient (54%) as a sophomore. He loses top target Cody Hoffman (894 yards) and three of the top four. But four of the top eight return led by Mitch Matthews (#3 w/397), and they get grad transfer Jordan Leslie who had 612 yards last year at UTEP and 937 in '12. Sacks were a big problem last year (38 allowed) but that should improve a lot as all five starters return to the line. We figure Hill will make big strides in the passing portion of his job description.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #11 (raw) #9 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #2 (adj.)

BYU had a powerful rushing attack last year mainly due to two men, quarterback Taysom Hill (1,344 yards, 10 TDs) and running back Jamaal Williams (1,233, 7). The three others who topped 200 yards are back, too. The offensive line is loaded: Solomone Kafu and Michael Yech started full-time, DeOndre Wesley and Kyle Johnson started most games, and Edward Fusi and Terrance Alletto each started half-time at center. That's pretty much the full lineup, and Ryker Matthews was a full-time starter in 2012. The ground game looks like one of the nation's best for 2014.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #33    Pass Defense  per-game: #54   Per-attempt: #20
Defense 6 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #24 (raw) #25 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #68	'13 picks: #73
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #21 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #64	'14 picks: #15

BYU's defense loses one starter from the 3-4 defensive line and another, Brandon Kaufusi, moves to linebacker. There, they return Alani Fua (10 pass breakups) but lose top tackler Uani Unga (143 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss) and Kyle Van Noy (13.5 tackles for loss). The secondary loses Daniel Sorensen (12 pass breakups) but three starters return, plus they get Jordan Johnson (15 pass breakups in '12) back from injury, and well as Nebraska transfer Harvey Jackson. Though the defense looks weaker up front they should stop a lot more drives with interceptions. Last year they had 13 picks and they return a huge amount of pass breakups which points to many more interceptions; this should keep their scoring defense as good or better than last year's.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Scott Arellano (41.0 average) is back for his senior year but the Cougars must replace kicker Austin Sorensen (21 of 26 field goals).
• Return Game:  Kick returner Adam Hine (27.2 average) is back while main punt fielder JD Falslev (9.7 average, 1 touchdown) is gone.
• Turnovers projection:  BYU got a bit lucky on fumbles last year but Taysom Hill should cut back a bit on his interceptions, and we think the defense will markedly increase theirs.
• Injury correction:  The team had more injuries than average, particularly on defense, another reason the D maintains its quality despite some key personnel losses; they shouldn't have the same bad luck this year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #76          2013 Recruiting Rank: #61
Bronco Mendenhall continues to recruit at about the same clip, on average, during BYU's first three years as an independent since leaving the Mountain West conference. Of course, many of these freshmen end up going on missions for two years and rejoin the team at age 20, playing until they are 24 or so. BYU also has the added challenge of the infamous Honor Code, which has already caused them to lose Jamaal Williams for the first game of the year. The school no longer announces the reason for these suspensions, probably because they were getting too much ridicule for dismissing players for having premarital sex.

2013 Recap 
The Cougars started out with a confounding set of two games. They lost to Virginia 19-16, then belted Texas 40-21. The explanation at the time was that Texas was horrible, but they finished 8-5 and Virginia 2-10. In any case, they lost the next game 23-13 to 5-7 Utah. BYU was a lot more consistent after that, winning five straight games over bowl teams MTSU, Utah State, Georgia Tech, Houston, and Boise State. They lost at Wisconsin 27-17 and Notre Dame 23-13 and finished 8-4. They lost to Washington 31-16 in the Fight Hunger Bowl.

Last year's prediction: We ranked BYU #31 and projected an 8-4 record. We figured the scoring offense would rank 40th and they ended up 36th, we downgraded the defense to #20 and it ended up #25. But we didn't see the running game exploding to near the top ten. Game by game, BYU was an enigma early and we got the first three games wrong. But after that we missed only the Utah State game.

2014 Outlook

BYU 2014 schedule & forecast
8/29	Fri	@	Connecticut	95%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Texas	60%	W
9/11	Thu	vs.	Houston	65%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Virginia	93%	W
10/3	Fri	vs.	Utah State	89%	W
10/9	Thu	@	UCF	70%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	Nevada	92%	W
10/24	Fri	@	Boise State	68%	W
11/1	Sat	@	Middle Tennessee	95%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	UNLV	98%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	Savannah State	100%	W
11/29	Sat	@	California	79%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 10%

BYU's schedule is not very hard this year on the whole. Over half the teams on it were bowl teams last year, and there are some challenges early, but we have the Cougars ranked so high that we favor them in each individual contest. The cumulative projection is for a 10-2 record.

UConn shouldn't be that much of a challenge, even in Storrs, if BYU is at all close to being a top ten team. The next two games will probably tell us everything we need to know about them. Texas will be a good team, probably not a great one, and if the Cougars can win that on the road—even as Texas longs for revenge for last year's embarrassment—then we know BYU is at least somewhat for real. Houston is another team that we rank much higher than anyone else (we rank them higher than Texas, making Houston the highest-rated foe on BYU's slate). For us, that game is one of the biggest non-Power Conference matchups of the year, a clash of two top 25 teams.

If BYU is 3-0 here they have a great shot of winning out. They should beat Virginia this season at home, and Utah State may be dangerous but they get the Aggies at home, too. Central Florida on the road will be another challenge but we see the Knights being down quite a bit without Blake Bortles. BYU should top Nevada and if they get past Boise State the next three are practically gimmes. California on the road is their last hurdle but the Bears were 1-11 last year.

By these odds BYU has a 10% chance of going undefeated, and we give them about a 12% chance of making the College Football Playoff. The schedule is so easy even an undefeated Cougar team is likely not among the top four—unless they really dominate, or unless Houston or Texas or some other opponent turns into a great win in retrospect. Still, any undefeated team is going to get a strong look, and they have one of the better chances out there, being favored in every game. That's why our CFP odds are greater than BYU's odds of going 12-0.

The odds say BYU screws up somewhere—it's hard to be perfect—and of course our ranking of BYU is way out of line with everyone else, so a 10-2 season is probably a better goal than 12-0. If perfection is your goal you can only meet it or be disappointed, but 10-2 gives them some upside.

More Previews • Full coverage of all 128 FBS teams
SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128