SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Arizona Wildcats (Pac-12 #9; South #5) |
 #34 |
2013 Results |
AP #35 USA #37 | Strength:#21 Success:#29 Overall:#24 |
| Record: 8-5 | Bowl: beat Boston College 42-19 (AdvoCare) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP NR | USA #50 | Lindy's #42 | Athlon #45 | Steele #41 | ||
| Record: 6-6 | Bowl odds: 75% Playoff odds: <1% | ||
Due to three very close games, a fine line separates a 5-7 season from an 8-4 season for the Wildcats.
| Offense 6 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #35 (raw) #24 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #60 (adjusted) |
The loss of KaDeem Carey and BJ Denker hits the offense hard, but a strong offensive line should keep the running game going.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #101 (raw) #91 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #9 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #103 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #6 |
BJ Denker (2,516 yards, 16 TDs, 7 int) was a good passer—for a QB on a run-first team. With his departure USC transfer Jesse Scroggins might finally get a chance to take the field as a senior. #1 receiver Nate Phillips (696 yards) is back, and in all, 5 of the top 8 return now that Garic Wharton (#4 w/373) has transferred. The offensive line gave great protection last year (17 sacks vs. tough pass rush defenses) and should be at least as good this year. Scroggins has a strong arm, but this is still a run-first team, and there might be a reason he's strung along all these years without playing. UPDATE: And Scroggins will be strung along at least a bit longer, as it was announced that redshirt freshman Anu Solomon will start heading into the season.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #12 (raw) #7 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #22 (adj.) |
KaDeem Carey (1,885 yards, 19 touchdowns) put together two of the best back-to-back seasons any running back has had, with 1,929 yards in 2012. That's great for last year's team, not so much for this year's squad, especially since QB BJ Denker (949 yards) is also gone, leaving #4 Jared Baker (127 yards) the top returnee. Redshirt freshman Pierre Cormier was the assumed starter, but his career was cut short by a medical condition. So it probably falls to fellow redshirt frosh Zach Green. Rodriguez teams run the ball, and with the offensive line returning four starters—Steven Gurrola, Fabbians Ebbele, Mickey Baucus, and Cayman Bundage—any feature back is going to gain yards in bunches if the carries are concentrated on him like they were on Carey. But we're talking 1,000 yards, not approaching 2,000. Arizona should remain a strong rushing team but not like the last year.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #54 Pass Defense per-game: #25 Per-attempt: #28 | ||
| Defense 6 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #44 (raw) #21 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #75 | '13 picks: #28 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #18 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #74 | '14 picks: #18 | |
Arizona loses two of three starters on the defensive line including Sione Tuihalamaka (5 sacks), and two of three starters at linebacker including Marquis Flowers (10 tackles for loss). Scooby Wright (9 tackles for loss) returns there, and four starters are back in the secondary (3-3-5 alignment); TraMayne Bondurant left during fall camp but returned a day later. The defense didn't rank high until you correct for the teams they played, after which they were revealed as a top 25 unit; they should remain so.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Punter Drew Riggleman (40.1 average) is back but kicker Jake Smith (12 of 19 FG) is gone.
- Return Game: Arizona's main kickoff returners, led by Jared Baker (23.3 average) are back along with punt fielder Johnny Jackson (8.5).
- Turnovers projection: BJ Denker threw just 7 interceptions last year, a figure we see increasing if any of the strong-arm candidates (including Scroggins) gets the job. Though their ranking goes up, we don't really foresee much of an increase in picks by the defense.
- Injury correction: The defense avoided injuries to key players last year—in other words they were lucky, and that luck is unlikely to repeat.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #22 2013 Recruiting Rank: #22
RichRod is bringing in remarkable recruiting classes at Arizona, and this year's group competes for the top spot in the Pac-12. Part of the secret is size: he's brought in nearly 30 recruits each year for the last two years. Rodriguez has had back-to-back 8-5 seasons , something it took Mike Stoops 6 years to accomplish. But until he can get that 9th win—something Arizona hasn't had since 1998—there will be doubters.
2013 Recap
The Wildcats roared to 3-0 but losses to Washington and USC brought them back to earth. They won three more—over Utah, Colorado, and Cal, not exactly the Pac-12's toughest—and lost to UCLA and Washington State. But then they beat Oregon, and didn't just beat them but destroyed them 42-16. It was probably the Wildcats' best win since shutting out Miami in the 1994 Fiesta Bowl. But they turned around and lost to ASU 58-21 before crushing Boston College 42-19 in their bowl game. Not the most consistent team, the 2013 Wildcats.
Last year's prediction: We ranked Arizona #30 which is within reasonable distance of where one could argue they deserved to be, and projected a 7-5 record which was right on. We picked all their games correctly except Washington State and Oregon. We pretty much nailed the direction of the offense, passing game, rushing game, and defense, too.
2014 Outlook
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Arizona 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/29 | Fri | vs. | UNLV | 91% | W | |||
| 9/4 | Thu | @ | UTSA | 70% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | Nevada | 81% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | vs. | *California | 77% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Thu | @ | *Oregon | 12% | L | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | vs. | *USC | 40% | L | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | @ | *Washington State | 50% | L | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | @ | *UCLA | 8% | L | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Colorado | 85% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Washington | 47% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | @ | *Utah | 34% | L | |||
| 11/28 | Fri | vs. | *Arizona State | 50% | L | |||
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Straight up: 5-7 Cume: 6-6 Bowl eligible: 75%
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This year's record is not nearly so easy to predict. With 5 solid-looking wins and at least 3 complete tossups, anything from 5-7 to 8-4 seems equally likely. Even the cumulative estimate is waffling between 6 and 7 wins. At final look only the 5 solid wins go Arizona's way in the all-or-nothing "straight up" projection.
The Wildcats seem to be bowl-bound again, most likely. Especially since they should win their first four games against UNLV, Texas-San Antonio, Nevada, and California. After that they only need two more wins in eight games, and with Colorado at home they only need one more. And that one can be any of three tossup games at Washington State, Washington at home, or Arizona State at home. Even USC at home is in play. The only games that look like clear losses are Oregon and UCLA (both on the road).
Maybe the best thing to do is look at RichRod's track record here (all of two years) and figure the team will either go 7-5 and win their bowl game, or go 8-4 and lose, to end up 8-5 again.
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