SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Arizona State Sun Devils (Pac-12 #6; South #3) |
 #22 |
2013 Results |
AP #21 USA #20 | Strength:#6 Success:#16 Overall:#10 |
| Record: 10-4 | Bowl: lost to Texas Tech 37-23 (Holiday) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #19 | USA #18 | Lindy's #30 | Athlon #16 | Steele #38 | ||
| Record: 7-5 | Bowl odds: 87% Playoff odds: <1% | ||
Lindy's and Phil Steele are bucking the trend of putting ASU in the top 25, but we're not—though we've downgraded them considerably from last year's Strength rating (#6 !).
| Offense 6 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #10 (raw) #6 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #7 (adjusted) |
The offense isn't going to be a problem, in fact it could be as good as it was last year.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #34 (raw) #26 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #101 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #14 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #106 |
Taylor Kelly (3,635 yards, 28 TDs, 12 int) is back and ASU's top two pass catchers are, too, Jaelen Strong (1,122 yards, 7 TDs) and RB DJ Foster (653 yards). The next four (#3 thru #6), totaling almost 1,500 yards, are gone however, but there are three others who topped 100 yards will have to take their place. The offensive line allowed 41 sacks which is still a lot even for nearly 500 attempts. Now a senior, Kelly has a few strikes against him but with Strong back he should have his best year.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #41 (raw) #20 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #27 (adj.) |
The Sun Devils lose leading rusher Marion Grice (996 yards, 14 TDs) who was also a great receiver (#3 w/438) and solid kick returner. QB Kelly was #2 with 608 (9 TDs) and DJ Foster (501 yards) is also back; in all, three of the top four return. The offensive line returns Tyler Sulka, Jamil Douglas, and Vi Teofilo, all of whom started every game last year. Without Grice production may be down a bit but Foster will have a great year as feature back.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #24 Pass Defense per-game: #28 Per-attempt: #57 | ||
| Defense 2 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #68 (raw) #31 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #4 | '13 picks: #18 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #90 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #42 | '14 picks: #88 | |
Here's the problem: a defense that returns just two starters. The front 3 in the 3-4 is all gone; they lose Carl Bradford (8.5 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss), Davon Coleman (8.5 sacks), and Will Sutton (9.5 tackles for loss). At linebacker top tackler Chris Young (112 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss) departs, and Robert Nelson (6 interceptions) is one of three starters missing from the secondary. Their one piece of good news is the transfer from Purdue of backup linebacker Ruben Ibarra, who will be eligible immediately. They lose almost 90% of their sacks, falling from the top five in pass rush to just above-average. They return just a handful of pass breakups and 4 of 21 interceptions, falling from the top 25 to well below average in our projection. Ten of their top twelve tacklers are gone. We see a huge drop coming in the ASU scoring defense rating.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Kicker Zane Gonzalez (25 of 30 FG) is back, as is punter Matt Haack (38.2 average) and punter/kicker Alex Garoutte (38.8 on punts last year).
- Return Game: The return team will miss both Marion Grice (24.1 average on kickoffs) and Robert Nelson (6.4 on punts).
- Turnovers projection: The big change we see coming is a sharp decline in interceptions; the Sun Devils had 21 last year and we don't think they'll come close to that this year.
- Injury correction: ASU avoided injuries on both offense and defense, and that's very unlikely to happen again, another reason to downgrade the team.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #16 2013 Recruiting Rank: #23
Recruiting has been very good lately with two top 25 classes; this one ranks near the very top of the Pac-12. Todd Graham is in his 3rd year here after jumping around for a few seasons (Tulsa, then Pitt, then ASU). He's had two good years here so far.
2013 Recap
ASU could be dominant, or they could wilt when meeting resistance of a good team. That almost happened against Wisconsin but a fluke last few seconds preserved a 32-30 win, but they couldn't handle Stanford and lost 42-28. They overwhelmed USC 62-41 and basically got Lane Kiffin fired, but against an arguably inferior Notre Dame team they lost a close one, 37-34. They went on a roll after that, winning seven straight including beating Washington 53-24 and UCLA 38-33, but they lost to the Cardinal again in the Pac-12 championship 38-14. Heavily favored over Texas Tech, they fell to the Holiday Bowl Pac-12 jinx that Cal suffered in 2004, losing 37-23.
Last year's prediction: In some ways our pick was very good: we had ASU #8 last year, and they finished #6 in Strength. But most people wouldn't rank the Sun Devils there at the end of the season—they were 16th in Success, and 19th in the AP poll. We projected a 9-3 record which in this case was a little low for their 10-2 finish, but we also favored them in every individual game. In short, we said they'd be good and they were, but the details were as inconsistent as ASU's own season was.
2014 Outlook
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ASU 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/28 | Thu | vs. | Weber State | 100% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | @ | New Mexico | 95% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | @ | *Colorado | 80% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Thu | vs. | *UCLA | 24% | L | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | @ | *USC | 32% | L | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Stanford | 50% | W | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 39% | L | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Utah | 60% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | Notre Dame | 66% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | @ | *Oregon State | 48% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Washington State | 75% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Fri | @ | *Arizona | 50% | W | |||
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Straight up: 8-4 Cume: 7-5 Bowl eligible: 87%
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Arizona State will almost certainly have three wins in their first three games. Then there are three more games they should win during the season. Then there are three games that rate as so close we can barely pick a winner.
Weber State, New Mexico, and Colorado is a three-game vacation for ASU compared to the rest of the schedule, even through the last two games are on the road. They have to come home to UCLA, then travel to USC, and will probably be 3-2 after that.
Then they host Stanford and it's too close to call. We give a designation on the chart above but it could change at any time prior to the season starting based on injuries, etc. The same is true for the final at Arizona.
The Sun Devils probably lose at Washington, but we give them home wins vs. Utah and Notre Dame. Oregon State is another very close call but on the road the Beavers have the slight edge. ASU should beat Washington State.
That's 6 wins plus the three tossups, which implies 7 or 8 wins; the cumulative estimate parks near 7-5, while straight up we get 8-4 winning two of the games by a sliver. It's easy to see what could change this: the defense being decent this year. If that somehow happens then Arizona State has a shot at greatness. Then again, if the offense declines very much it could be a long year. But we see the Sun Devils going to a bowl game again in 2014.
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