SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC #1; West #1) |
 #2 |
2013 Results |
AP #7 USA #8 | Strength:#4 Success:#9 Overall:#3 |
| Record: 11-2 | Bowl: Lost to Oklahoma 45-31 (Sugar) |
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| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP #2 | USA #2 | Lindy's #2 | Athlon #2 | Steele #2 | ||
| Record: 11-1 | Bowl odds: 99.9% Playoff odds: 60% | ||
Alabama is the consensus #2 team this year, but we don't go just with the crowd, and we aren't afraid to make a daring, unorthodox pick like putting Alabama at...NUMBER THREE. Oh well, nevermind. UCLA lost a fraction of a point on revision and Alabama ended up #2 anyway.
| Offense 7 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #18 (raw) #12 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #13 (adjusted) |
The conventional wisdom is that Alabama won't be quite as good passing but will be even more dominant running the ball, and we think the conventional wisdom is correct, with the offense ending up just about the same—even with Lane Kiffin hired to run the show.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #50 (raw) #40 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #27 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #59 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #30 |
AJ McCarron (3,063 yards, 28 TDs, 7 int) moves on after a stellar Alabama career and there is question as to how good he really was—whether he was just a "game manager" for a great team. Well, I think we can say that at the very least he was an incredible game manager. The assumption is that Florida State grad transfer Jacob Coker (250 yards, 0:1) will win the starting job over senior Blake Sims (167, 2:0). Six of the eight top pass catchers are back including #1 Amari Cooper (736 yards) and #3 DeAndrew White (534) while #2 Kevin Norwood (568) departs. The pieces are there for a stronger passing game, but we think that Nick Saban wants a game manager at QB, and it's unlikely the replacement can do as good of a job as McCarron did.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #26 (raw) #25 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #13 (adj.) |
Alabama is stocked up here, as usual, with their three main rushers returning. Junior TJ Yeldon (1,235 yards, 14 TDs) created expectations so high as a freshman that even last year's effort didn't meet them, and some have touted Kenyan Drake (694 yards, 8 TDs) as the better back. Then there's Derrick Henry (382) who made waves late in the year with his 10.9 per-carry average. The offensive line should do its job just fine, as starters Austin Shepherd, Arie Kouandjio, and Ryan Kelly are back. The ground game should be pretty impressive with three feature backs in committee rotation.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #2 Pass Defense per-game: #16 Per-attempt: #21 | ||
| Defense 4 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #4 (raw) #3 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #70 | '13 picks: #65 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #1 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #57 | '14 picks: #83 | |
Last year we predicted that Alabama wouldn't have the #1 opponent-adjusted scoring defense, and it happened—in fact they plummeted to #3 using our All-Division Strength ratings for scoring defense. This year they lose a lot of starters once again. Brandon Ivory is the only starter back on the defensive line, though sack leader AShawn Robinson (5.5 sacks) moves into the starting lineup. At linebacker, top tackler CJ Mosley (108 tackles, 9 tackles for loss) is gone. The secondary two draft picks and backup Eddie Jackson tore his ACL in the spring (may only miss 4 games, though). They do get 2012 starter Nick Perry back, however. We think the defense slips a bit, but the #1 and #2 teams from last year (Stanford, Michigan State) slip even more, so the Tide should again claim the top spot!
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Both kicker Cade Foster (12 of 17 FG) and punter Cody Mandell (47.1 average) are gone.
- Return Game: Christion Jones had three touchdown returns last year, two on punts where he averaged 14.0 yards, and one on a kickoff (28.7). He's back.
- Turnovers projection: Though Coker and Sims are both upperclassmen, there's a worry that they'll cause more turnovers than the cautious McCarron (7 last year).
- Injury correction: Alabama was a bit fortunate on offense when it came to turnovers, and that probably won't last.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #2 2013 Recruiting Rank: #3
As usual, Alabama has nearly the very best recruiting by our rankings, and even though we didn't put Alabama #1 for both years like most people, they are easily #1 for the last two years combined. Other teams may have a turn at #1 but they follow it with a class outside the top 25. Alabama stays at or near #1 year after year. This year's class is loaded at the top with five consensus 5-star picks: Offensive tackle Cam Robinson (Louisiana), defensive end DaShawn Hand (Virginia), cornerbacks Tony Brown (Texas) and Marion Humphrey (Alabama), and linebacker Rashaan Evans (from Auburn, AL). We had the Tide #1, but when they greyshirted another 5-star pick it dropped them to #2. I'm sure Nick Saban is crying about that, and his recent $55 million contract. Saban made waves with the unexpected choice of Lane Kiffin as 'Bama's new offensive coordinator. Genius move, or the beginning of the end?
2013 Recap
Alabama started the year ranked #1 and they held that designation for a long time, even if they did a few things to make it questionable as to whether another team might be able to beat them. Their offense certainly wasn't up to snuff in beating Virginia Tech 35-10 with interceptions and kick returns, and Texas A&M nearly won the 49-42 shootout. They blanked Mississippi 25-0, but was their offense dominant enough? By the time they played LSU some wondered if the Tigers would get them, but they dominated 38-17, and though they were lackluster at Mississippi State (20-7) they were a healthy favorite at Auburn. The game was tight enough that Alabama needed a last second field goal to win it, and we know what happened next (see here, for those of you who don't follow college football at all). Deprived of the national title chance, the Tide limped into the Sugar Bowl and, reminiscent of their loss to Utah in 2008, lost 45-31 to Oklahoma.
Last year's prediction: Last year we weren't quite the mavericks we are this year, and we joined the bandwagon in ranking Alabama #1 and favoring them to win every game and the national title. Our cumulative projection did call for a loss at 11-1, but we never would have guessed Auburn.
2014 Outlook
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Alabama 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | N | West Virginia | 95% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Florida Atlantic | 99% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | Southern Miss | 99% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | vs. | *Florida | 87% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | @ | *Mississippi | 69% | W | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | @ | *Arkansas | 91% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Texas A&M | 90% | W | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | @ | *Tennessee | 94% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | @ | *LSU | 70% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Mississippi State | 88% | W | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | Western Carolina | 100% | W | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | vs. | *Auburn | 72% | W | |||
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Straight up: 12-0 Cume: 11-1 Odds of 12-0: 19%
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Again, we pick Alabama as the favorite in every game. The odds say there's "only" a 19% chance they'll go 12-0, and 11-1 is the most likely outcome. The cumulative projection actually is on the cusp of 10-2 and 11-1, as there are several tough games on Alabama's slate. But as the top team in the SEC they're supposed to clean house.
The opener in Atlanta against West Virginia doesn't hold much drama, but it's a nail-biter compared to Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss at home. Florida will be much better this year but they're not ready to beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa.
Four of the next five games are on the road: among them, Mississippi, which might be the toughest game on their schedule, and if not Ole Miss it's probably LSU. Arkansas and Tennessee are still flailing by comparison. In between those road games they get Texas A&M at home but without Johnny Manziel there's not the same danger of getting beat.
They finish with Auburn again, and the Tide will be out for revenge and playing at home; we figure they'll win that one. And they'll go for touchdowns only.
As a team in our top four, naturally the Tide should be a favorite for the College Football Playoff; we have their pre-season odds at 60%. Of course if they win the SEC Championship—they'll probably have to go through Georgia—with 1 loss or no losses, they're in. A 2-loss SEC champ has a good shot, too, depending on how the rest of the country shapes up. So unless they take a rare third loss—which has only happened once in the last 6 years—they're in the running.
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SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
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