SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| New Mexico State Aggies (Sun Belt #11) |
 #128 |
2013 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#124 Success:#112 Overall:#120 |
| Record: 2-10 | Bowl: None | ||
| 2014 Outlook |
Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #127 | Athlon #128 | Steele #124 | ||
| Record: 1-11 | Bowl odds: <1% Playoff odds: <1% | ||
Our (not-so) coveted last-place ranking goes to New Mexico State, and the national magazines are in near-agreement, with Athlon relegating them to this spot too. Bad last year, the Aggies might get even worse, particularly on defense.
| Offense 7 ret. starters |
2013 Scoring Offense: #106 (raw) #115 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #120 (adjusted) |
The Aggies return a number of starters but still lose their quarterback, top rusher, and top receiver.
| Passing Game |
2013 Passing Rank: #59 (raw) #54 (adjusted) | 2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #84 |
| 2014 Projected Passing Rank: #74 (adjusted) |
2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #75 |
Andrew McDonald (2,497 yards, 15 TDs, 11 int) departs after a fairly productive year, completing 67% of his passes. Next in line is juco Tyler Rogers; he'll have 7 of the 8 top receivers back, everyone except #1 Austin Franklin (670 yards, 7 TDs). #2 was Jerrell Brown with 484. The line should protect a bit better this year and Rogers has a good shot at matching McDonald's numbers but we have them down a notch.
| Rushing | 2013 Rushing Rank: #92 (raw) #101 (adjusted) | 2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #104 (adj.) |
Germi Morrison led last year with 451 yards; he's gone, and set to take over the top RB spot will be Xavier Hall who was #4 with 247. The offensive line returns roughly 3.5 starters from last year including senior center Valerian Ume-Ezeoke. On the whole the ground game looks about the same, and a lot depends on whether the new quarterback can exceed McDonald's 256 net yards (#3 rusher) from last year.
| 2013 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #127 Pass Defense per-game: #117 Per-attempt: #118 | ||
| Defense 4 ret. starters |
'13 Scoring Defense: #125 (raw) #127 (adjusted) | '13 sacks: #127 | '13 picks: #64 |
| '14 Projected Scoring Defense: #128 (adjusted) |
'14 sacks: #128 | '14 picks: #114 | |
New Mexico State's defense was terrible last year, and this year could be worse—or better, if replacing ineffective players with unproven ones is a virtue. The defense is being reshuffled this season, with several linebackers moving in to shore up the defensive line, but many of last year's better players are gone. The unit's worst losses include linebacker Trashaun Nixon (10 tackles for loss) and safety Davis Cazares (#1 tackler with 109). It might not be possible for the Aggie defense to get much worse, but that's how we project it as they lose six of their top seven tacklers. On the bright side, they have a lot of room to move up, and new DC Larry Coyer has more than a little experience on this side of the ball.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: The Aggies must replace punter Cayle Chapman-Brown (43.8 average) but placekicker Maxwell Johnson (10 of 12 FG) is back.
- Return Game: Joseph Matthews averaged 6.9 yards per punt return and Adam Shapiro 20.5 per kickoff, and both are back.
- Turnovers projection: Turnovers might hurt the Aggies this season, as a new quarterback and a defense not likely to generate interceptions could leave them on the negative side. They should have a bit better luck on fumbles this season, however.
- Injury correction: New Mexico State's injury rate was moderate last year, so despite their poor year they might have overperformed a bit.
Coaching/Recruiting 2014 Recruiting Rank: #106 2013 Recruiting Rank: #121
Doug Martin's 2nd recruiting class is better than his first, as expected, and lands right in the middle of the team's new conference, showing that the Aggies are a good fit for the Sun Belt despite their westward location.
2013 Recap
Not much went right for New Mexico State last year, but in retrospect that wasn't unexpected; they lost to the teams that were better and beat the few teams that were inferior. After a 0-7 start that included beatdowns by Texas (66-7), UCLA (59-13), and even New Mexico (66-17), they edged transitioning-to-FCS Abilene Christian 34-29 and topped Idaho 24-16 in the finale. They gave up 40+ points 9 times.
Last year's prediction: We ranked the Aggies #122, which is close to where they finished in our power ratings, and projected a 2-10 record with wins over Abilene-Christian and Idaho, so we pretty much nailed it. But like we said, their season really didn't take any unexpected turns.
2014 Outlook
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New Mexico State 2014 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/28 | Thu | vs. | Cal Poly | 7% | L | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | @ | *Georgia State | 18% | L | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | @ | UTEP | 10% | L | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | vs. | New Mexico | 10% | L | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | @ | LSU | 1% | L | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Georgia Southern | 18% | L | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | @ | *Troy | 5% | L | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | @ | *Idaho | 8% | L | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Texas State | 14% | L | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | *UL-Lafayette | 1% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | *UL-Monroe | 9% | L | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | @ | *Arkansas State | 4% | L | |||
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Straight up: 0-12 Cume: 1-11 Bowl eligible: <1%
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The outlook for 2014 is even worse than 2013 for New Mexico State. This year there aren't any easy FCS teams on the schedule, nor any bad FBS teams that they host at home. But the main problem is that our system ranks the Aggies about 10 points worse than the 2nd-worst FBS team, and consequently their odds of winning any given game is poor.
The Aggies open with Cal Poly, who is Division I-AA (FCS) but not a bad team; they finished 6-6 last season and are roughly as good as a Sun Belt opponent. Georgia State on the road is actually one of the best opportunities for a win, along with Georgia Southern and Texas State at home. Everything else is single-digits percentagewise. This adds up to an 0-12 year game by game, and 1-11 cumulatively, with their bowl odds at a ridiculously low 1 in 10,000. Their odds of making the 4-team playoff by these numbers is roughly 1 in 100 trillion.
Every year it seems there is one team that our formula just crushes and puts at the bottom, much lower than the 2nd worst team. The last-place team has never been quite as bad as advertised here, so it's a virtual guarantee that the Aggies will not be this bad in 2014. How much better they can be depends on whether they can turn around the defense, a job that might take more than one season to accomplish.
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