Our previous two posts tried to answer the questions: where does this year's Florida State team rank out of team in the past 50 year by success and by strength. Now we combine the two answers into one final judgement.
The two previous rankings correspond to our two basic power ratings, Success and Strength. The Success rating measures a team's wins and losses using no margin of victory, while Strength uses pretty much only margin of victory to gauge a team's dominance.
Combining the two gives a better picture of how good a team is in historical terms. Some teams have great Strength but aren't consistent and lose a game here or there; the Overall power rating makes sure they "prove" it by having a great year against a tough schedule. Other teams, let's face it, aren't as good but they get lucky and have a towering Success rating but aren't dominant against their opponents. The Overall power rating makes sure that these teams aren't overrated.
So for what it's worth, here is the all-time (ok, past 50 years) Overall power rating Top 25:
# Year Team Rec Rating Strgth[rnk] Success[rnk]
1. 1971 Nebraska 13-0 87.29 41.21 [ 6] 46.07 [ 1]
2. 1995 Nebraska 12-0 74.77 42.65 [ 3] 32.11 [ 7]
3. 1988 Notre Dame 12-0 69.83 30.51 [ --] 39.32 [ 2]
4. 2005 Texas 13-0 68.29 41.07 [ 7] 27.22 [ 12]
5. 2004 Southern California 13-0 68.14 35.95 [ --] 32.19 [ 6]
6. 2009 Alabama 14-0 66.91 29.27 [ --] 37.64 [ 3]
7. 2013 Florida St 14-0 65.93 40.91 [ 8] 25.02 [ 19]
8. 1987 Miami (Florida) 12-0 65.65 32.56 [ --] 33.09 [ 5]
9. 1973 Oklahoma 10-0-1 64.69 42.36 [ 4] 22.32 [ --]
10. 1991 Washington 12-0 64.64 39.97 [ 12] 24.66 [ 20]
11. 2010 Auburn 14-0 63.57 26.82 [ --] 36.75 [ 4]
12. 1974 Oklahoma 11-0 63.10 44.27 [ 2] 18.82 [ --]
13. 2001 Miami (Florida) 12-0 60.63 39.26 [ 16] 21.36 [ --]
14. 1973 Notre Dame 11-0 60.50 35.20 [ --] 25.30 [ 18]
15. 1972 Southern California 12-0 59.37 37.65 [ --] 21.71 [ --]
16. 1997 Nebraska 13-0 59.37 32.42 [ --] 26.94 [ 13]
17. 2011 LSU 13-1 59.15 32.71 [ --] 26.43 [ 14]
18. 1991 Miami (Florida) 12-0 58.68 29.24 [ --] 29.43 [ 9]
19. 2008 Florida 13-1 58.46 38.05 [ 25] 20.40 [ --]
20. 1996 Florida 12-1 58.43 36.30 [ --] 22.13 [ --]
21. 2011 Alabama 12-1 57.90 35.01 [ --] 22.88 [ --]
22. 1972 Oklahoma 11-1 57.88 39.82 [ 15] 18.06 [ --]
23. 2000 Oklahoma 13-0 57.15 29.91 [ --] 27.23 [ 11]
24. 2012 Alabama 13-1 56.07 34.58 [ --] 21.49 [ --]
25. 1971 Alabama 11-1 55.51 35.75 [ --] 19.76 [ --]
By this verdict, Florida State is the 7th best team of the last 50 years, a pretty lofty status. You can see that they're one of the few teams to rank in the top 20 in both measures, Strength and Success, and that puts them in rare company with the best teams of the last 5 decades.
1971 Nebraska comes out on top; we've covered how their 1971 season played out much like a playoff with Alabama (who finished at #25 here) and Oklahoma (who is actually at #26). No other team in the top 25 beat another all-time top 25 team (except 2011 LSU and Alabama, who each beat the other one once).
1995 Nebraska gives the Cornhuskers the top two teams of the modern era; they were one of the strongest teams at #3 and their 12-0 season was the 7th most impressive. 1988 Notre Dame had the 2nd greatest season by the Success measure and they were strong enough to end up at #3 overall.
At #4 2005 Texas is just ahead of 2004 Southern Cal interestingly; Texas beat the 2005 version of that team to win the national title. Next comes 2009 Alabama, the weakest team in the top 10; however, they finished 14-0 and beat an undefeated Texas team to win the BCS that year.
2013 Florida State is the highest-ranked team that gets its rating overwhelmingly from Strength. Their 14-0 finish was impressive obviously, but not nearly as impressive as other 14-0 teams or even some 12-0 teams, as their average opponent was somewhat weak. Still, it ranks 19th in our ratings and along with their #8 Strength ranking, puts them at #7 overall.
Rounding out the top 10 are 1987 Miami, 1973 Oklahoma (the highest-ranked team with a blemished record), and 1991 Washington, who split the national title with 1991 Miami (#18).
Though the survey starts from 1964, there were no '60s teams in the top 25, mainly because the bowl system was a mess back then. Many teams played just 10 games and often the best teams didn't go to a bowl game for one reason or another. Seven teams from the 70s made it, as that decade saw great disparity between the haves and have-nots.
Only two teams made it from the 80s as parity started setting in, but those two teams both made the top ten. Five teams from the '90s made it as well as six teams in the first decade of the 2000s as schedules expanded to a normal 12-game slate.
Less than half way through the 2010s there are five teams from the decade already. Note that three of them have 14-0 records which pumps up their Success rating, and that four of the five are from the SEC, which makes for a tough schedule (and therefore a higher rating if you do well).
What does the future hold? With the 4-team playoff starting, look for the winner to place very high on our all-time list. With two post-season games a team could be 15-0 with two big wins to finish the season, and that will make them worthy of consideration for the best team of all-time. Imagine a major-conference team going 12-0, winning their conference title game against a top team, then beating another 13-0 team to get to the championship game against another 14-0 team, and winning that? Their Success rating would be off the charts, and their Strength would presumably be very high to be capable of something like that. So 1971 Nebraska's days at #1 might be numbered.
Comments