SportsRatings: College Football

College Football Playoff Odds: No Surprise - Florida State dominates pre-season projections

Florida State is a runaway favorite to make the inaugural College Football Playoff, clocking in with an 83.5% chance according to our calculations, which at this point are based entirely on our pre-season projections for the FBS. Florida State ranks #1 in our Pre-season Top 128.

Alabama, Baylor, and UCLA all have odds above 50% and are projected to round out the 4-team field. They are the #2, #5, and #3 teams in our pre-season rankings.

Florida State is expected to easily win the ACC championship, while Alabama, Baylor, and UCLA are our favorites in the SEC, Big Twelve, and Pac-12 respectively.

While the Seminoles have little competition in the ACC—the next ACC team in the list is Clemson at #21—the other teams all lead a tight race in their conference. The SEC has seven teams in the top 25 while the Big Twelve and Pac-12 each have three. Though the Big Ten's top team comes in at #10 there are six teams in the top 25. There are also four teams outside the "power" conferences, including two independents.

All four of the top teams are favored to win every game they play this season as well as their conference championship games (the Big Twelve does not have a championship game). When cumulative odds are used, all four are still expected to have at least 10 wins this season.

SportsRatings Projected College Football Playoff Teams - Top 25 (pre-season projections)

Last week	8/27 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	Change +/-	8/27 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	AP Rank
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
n/a	1	Florida St	83.5	n/a	0-0	12	0	11.6	0.4	66.4%	1
n/a	2	Alabama	60.4	n/a	0-0	12	0	10.6	1.4	12.0%	2
n/a	3	Baylor	58.0	n/a	0-0	12	0	10.4	1.6	15.0%	10
n/a	4	UCLA	57.4	n/a	0-0	12	0	10.2	1.8	8.3%	7
n/a	5	Oklahoma	27.7	n/a	0-0	11	1	9.3	2.7	3.7%	4
n/a	6	Georgia	27.4	n/a	0-0	12	0	9.5	2.5	1.7%	12
n/a	7	Marshall	16.1	n/a	0-0	12	0	11.1	0.9	29.7%	32
n/a	8	Brigham Young	12.4	n/a	0-0	12	0	10.1	0.9	9.9%	43
n/a	9	Oregon	11.6	n/a	0-0	11	1	9.8	2.2	2.5%	3
n/a	10	Wisconsin	9.5	n/a	0-0	11	1	9.3	2.7	1.4%	14
n/a	11	Michigan St	8.3	n/a	0-0	10	2	9.0	3.0	0.7%	8
n/a	12	Ohio State	7.8	n/a	0-0	10	2	8.6	3.4	0.6%	5
n/a	13	Houston	4.9	n/a	0-0	11	1	10.4	1.6	12.0%	n/r
n/a	14	Auburn	2.1	n/a	0-0	10	2	8.8	3.2	0.6%	6
n/a	15	Indiana	2.0	n/a	0-0	9	3	8.5	3.5	0.6%	n/r
n/a	16	TCU	1.4	n/a	0-0	9	3	8.1	3.9	0.3%	35
n/a	17	Mississippi	1.3	n/a	0-0	9	3	8.6	3.4	0.3%	18
n/a	18	South Carolina	1.2	n/a	0-0	9	3	8.7	3.3	0.2%	9
n/a	19	Navy	1.0	n/a	0-0	10	2	9.7	2.3	4.6%	46
n/a	20	Maryland	0.7	n/a	0-0	8	4	7.9	4.1	0.1%	n/r
n/a	21	Clemson	0.7	n/a	0-0	9	3	8.1	3.9	0.1%	16
n/a	22	LSU	0.7	n/a	0-0	9	3	8.1	3.9	0.1%	13
n/a	23	Southern Cal	0.7	n/a	0-0	10	2	8.1	3.9	0.1%	15
n/a	24	Michigan	0.5	n/a	0-0	9	3	7.6	4.4	0.1%	37
n/a	25	Mississippi St	0.4	n/a	0-0	8	4	8.1	3.9	0.1%	36

"Others receiving votes": Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Louisiana-Lafayette, Washington, Iowa, Texas, Stanford, and Missouri

The next two most likely teams to make it are Oklahoma and Georgia. The Sooners are our #2 Big Twelve team and if Baylor doesn't make it, Oklahoma probably does. The same goes for Georgia; as the favorites in the SEC East, they have an easier path to the SEC title game than teams in the West that have to compete with Alabama.

Next are two teams that barely make an impression in the AP poll but we expect them to be good and furthermore, they have easy schedules. Marshall is a surprise at #7 but other than FSU no team is more likely to go undefeated this season. That might not get the Thundering Herd into the top four, however, and their odds of getting there are around 16%. The same holds true for BYU; though the Cougars have a tougher schedule, it doesn't have a majority of "Power 5" opponents; they have around a 12% chance.

Don't assume that if teams above Marshall and BYU lose that the Herd and Cougars will move up. Most likely other Power 5 conference teams will leapfrog them. Even if they win out, they might end up staying exactly where they are, unless they are so dominant they can't be ignored (or every Power 5 teams has 2 or more losses).

Oregon is our pre-season #4 team but is only #9 here, mainly because they would have to face UCLA twice to make the playoff and we rank the Bruins higher. Beating UCLA is their key.

Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State come in at #10, #11, and #12. The Badgers are our #3 Big Ten team but they're in the West division, meaning OSU and MSU have to fight it out to get to the Big Ten title game. The other Big Ten teams—the two surprise teams Indiana and Maryland, as well as Michigan—are also in the East division, making things even harder for the Spartans and Buckeyes.

At #13 Houston is the sole representative from the American Athletic Conference. Ranked #16 in our pre-season rankings, the Cougars are another combination of a good team with an easy schedule. However, they do face BYU in a few weeks. That game should have big ramifications here, if nowhere else!

The only other non-Power Five conference team in the top 25 is #19 Navy; they're only our #48 team but they have a soft schedule in general, but with a couple of games (Ohio State, Notre Dame) where upset wins would put them on the map. Without at least one of those, they won't register on this list.

#14 Auburn, #17 Mississippi, #22 LSU, and #25 Mississippi State are all SEC teams that have to get past Alabama in the SEC West, while #18 South Carolina is Georgia's principal foe in the East.

#16 TCU must deal with Baylor and Oklahoma, and #21 Clemson is in the same ACC division as Florida State.

We will update these projections each week based on game outcomes and our power ratings.

2014 Pre-season Rankings: #1 Florida State Seminoles

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Florida State Seminoles  (ACC #1; Atlantic #1)

#1	2013 Results	AP #1 USA #1	Strength:#1  Success:#1  Overall:#1
		Record: 14-0	Bowl: beat Auburn 34-31
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #1 | USA #1 | Lindy's #1 | Athlon #1 | Steele #1
		Record: 12-0	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 84%

Unanimous #1 at the end of last season, the Seminoles are the unanimous #1 at the beginning of this one.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #2 (raw) #2 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #2 (adjusted)

Hesiman winner Jameis Winston is back, and that's a mighty good start.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #15 (raw) #15 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #80
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #10 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #63

Jameis Winston (4,057 yards, 40 TDs, 10 int) led FSU to their first national title since 1999 and he's back to go for two in a row. Two of his four main targets are back—#1 Rashad Green (1,128 yards, 9 TDs) and TE Nick O'Leary (557 yards, 7 TDs)—while #2 Kelvin Benjamin (1,011 yards, 15 TDs) and #3 Kenny Shaw (933, 6) are gone. The O-Line gave up 33 sacks last year and that should improve with four starters back. Overall it's possible for Winston to surpass his previous numbers, which means he has a shot at back-to-back Heisman trophies. But he's unlikely to blow those numbers away, meaning he probably finishes 3rd.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #29 (raw) #31 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #35 (adj.)

The 'Noles lose Devonta Freeman (1,016 yards, 14 TDs) and James Wilder (#3 w/563 yards, 8 TDs) while Karlos Williams (730, 11) is back. The offensive line returns starters Tre Jackson, Josue Matias, Bobby Hart, and Cameron Erving, all seniors. Center Austin Barron is a senior, too. The offensive line almost makes up for the losses at running back and the ground game should be roughly the same.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #9    Pass Defense  per-game: #6   Per-attempt: #1
Defense 6 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #1 (raw) #4 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #43	'13 picks: #1
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #8 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #49	'14 picks: #8

The defensive line returns two starters but two are gone including Timmy Jernigan. At linebacker Terrance Smith is the lone returnee, with top tackler Telvin Smith (7.5 tackles for loss) and Christian Jones gone. The secondary has three starters back but loses Lamarcus Joyner (5.5 sacks). In all five of the team's top six tacklers are gone, but there is plenty of talent to keep the defense from falling out of the top ten.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Groza award winner Roberto Aguayo (21 of 22 field goals last year) is back along with punter Cason Beatty (41.1 average).
• Return Game:  Kermit Whitfield (36.4 average on kickoffs, 2 touchdowns) is back while Kenny Shaw (9.7 average on punts) is not. WR Rashad Greene and safety Tyler Hunter combined for 3 touchdown punt returns in 2012 and both are available.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't think Florida State will have nearly as many picks on defense as last year. For one thing, 26 is a pretty high target, and 2nd they don't return enough pass defenses (breakups + interceptions) to point to that high of a figure.
• Injury correction:  FSU had very few injuries on offense, and a lower-than-average amount on defense, one reason they were able to sustain their high level of play all season. It might be a bit rockier this year if they have an average amount.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #3          2013 Recruiting Rank: #11
Look at that—win a national championship and have a great recruiting class the next year. Makes sense. The Seminoles bring in two 5-star recruits from the state of Florida, running back Dalvin Cook (Miami) and wide receiver Ermon Lane (Homestead). Jimbo Fisher was still on a probationary status of sorts with fans until winning the title last season; the team did well in his first three years but it seemed tentative, and the way they lost to NC State and Florida in 2012 was unsettling. Now there's no doubt he's the head coach they want.

2013 Recap 
Already 4-0, FSU was ready to face their first challenge: Maryland, ranked #25 and 4-0. They won 63-0. Their next test? Undefeated Clemson, ranked #3 (higher than the Seminoles who were #5). FSU won on the road 51-14. Still people didn't realize this was probably the best team in the country, and pointed to the easy schedule. Two games later, they faced undefeated Miami and won 41-14. They won out against a collection of losing teams including a disappointing Florida (37-7) and facing Duke (45-7) in the ACC title game didn't do them any favors. Against Auburn in the title game they got gut-punched early and were down 21-3; from the mid-2nd quarter on they dominated, 31-10 but people still talked about how Auburn may have played better. The sad thing is that probably one of the best college football teams of all time didn't have the schedule to prove it.

Last year's prediction: We didn't pick FSU to win the national championship. But we did rank them #9, higher than most of the rest of the pack (Phil Steele put them #4). We projected a 10-2 season, with game-by-game picks that put them 11-1—Clemson had a tiny edge in a 50/50 game. Obviously they beat Clemson and Florida (a 51%) and the games weren't close at all. 

2014 Outlook

Florida State 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Oklahoma State	93%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	The Citadel	100%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	96%	L
9/27	Sat	@	*NC State	99%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	99%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Syracuse	97%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	96%	L
10/30	Thu	@	*Louisville	96%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	99%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Miami FL	94%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	99%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	Florida	94%	L
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 12-0  Odds of 12-0: 68%

We don't project Florida State to be as good as they were last year; in fact they are about three and a half points worse. But there's no one within a touchdown of them, and that means no major challenges show up until the College Football Playoff, which we have them basically a shoo-in to make.

With no opponent under 90%, there's seemingly little difference between Wake Forest at home and Louisville on the road. Top 25 Florida has almost no more chance than The Citadel. Oklahoma State in Arlington, Notre Dame in Tallahassee, it's all the same.

Our odds give FSU a ridiculous 68% chance to go 12-0, and even throwing in the ACC title game and two possible CFP opponents gives the 'Noles a 30% chance to go 15-0 this year.

This year's schedule looks tougher when using last year's teams, but Oklahoma State, Clemson, and Louisville all look weaker than 2013. Miami and Notre Dame look about the same. Only Florida looks like a significant upgrade and they're the only team that made our pre-season top 25.

We can only hope that some of these teams turn out to be really good. As it is, there's no way FSU can live up to these projections. But Vegas odds have FSU favored in every game by 2 or more touchdowns, too, so we're not alone—there's the expectation that the Seminoles are going to dominate their schedule. And really, they did it last year, so why not this year?

In short, if FSU falls short of the College Football Playoff it will be a big surprise. And hopefully there will be an undefeated challenger or two going into the playoffs to build some excitement, because from the looks of it FSU's regular season is going to be devoid of it—though Seminole fans should be happy.

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SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

2014 Pre-season Rankings: #3 UCLA Bruins

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

UCLA Bruins  (Pac-12 #1; South #1)

#3	2013 Results	AP #16 USA #16	Strength:#12  Success:#15  Overall:#13
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Beat Virginia Tech 42-12 (Sun)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #7 | USA #7 | Lindy's #8 | Athlon #7 | Steele #3
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 57%

Is UCLA the main challenger from the Pac-12 this year?

Offense 8 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #21 (raw) #11 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #4 (adjusted)

With both the passing and running game helped by Brett Hundley's return the overall offense should be firmly in the top ten.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #46 (raw) #34 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #90
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #15 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #70

The return of Brett Hundley (3,071 yards, 24 TDs, 9 int) puts UCLA in the national spotlight as a potential national title contender. Though top receiver Shaquelle Evans (709 yards, 9 TDs) is gone, five others had over 200 receiving yards and all of them are back, led by Devin Fuller (471) while two others topped 200 yards in 2012. Sacks were a huge problem last year (36) and while that problem is unlikely to go away protection should get better. UCLA should have a top 25 passing game in 2014.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #36 (raw) #29 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #15 (adj.)

Brett Hundley also led the team in rushing with 748 yards (11 TDs) though that's not necessarily a great thing. But they split up the reps at running back so much—even bringing linebacker Myles Jack into the equation—that it's no wonder Hundley ended up #1. In all the top four return: Hundley, Paul Perkins (573 yards), Jordan James (534) and Jack (267). The offensive line should be better this year as Jake Brendel, Alex Redmond, and Caleb Benenoch are back with Simon Goines and Scott Quessenberry who started half-time. Goines will miss a few games at least, but they also add Malcolm Bunche who started at Miami in 2012. We see the rushing game getting better, too.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #34    Pass Defense  per-game: #23   Per-attempt: #16
Defense 8 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #37 (raw) #16 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #24	'13 picks: #47
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #12 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #47	'14 picks: #23

UCLA's defensive line loses two starters including Cassius Marsh (6 sacks) and backup Keenan Graham (6 sacks), but 2012 starter Owamagbe Odighizuwa is back. At linebacker in the 3-4 the big loss is Anthony Barr (10 sacks, 10 tackles for loss) so we see the pass rusher getting weaker. But top tackler Eric Kendricks (106 tackles) is back along with two-way star Myles Jack (11 pass breakups). The secondary is in the best shape of all the units and we see the defense topping last year's 14 picks. Overall the defense looks a bit stronger despite losing Barr.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn (14 of 21 FG) is back but punter Sean Covington (41.9 average) left the team over the summer.
• Return Game:  Steven Manfro (24.8 average on kickoffs) is back and he may handle more punts this year as Shaquelle Evans (6.8 average) was the main guy there last year. Ishmael Adams averaged 35 yards per kickoff return without the statistical help of a touchdown return (but only 10 attempts)
• Turnovers projection:  UCLA's +5 fumble margin probably won't last into 2014, but improvements in interceptions probably cancel that out.
• Injury correction:  The offense had a lot of injuries, and the defense had relatively few. That's a relative plus this year to the offense and a minus to the defense assuming those rates level out.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #37          2013 Recruiting Rank: #1
Last year we rated UCLA's recruiting class #1. This year they're in the lower half of the Pac-12. They have fewer total recruits this year than they did 4-star recruits last year. But that's the sometimes boom-bust nature of recruiting when players graduate and leave at uneven rates. Jim Mora has seen UCLA through its two best best back-to-back seasons since 1997-1998.

2013 Recap 
UCLA jumped out to 5-0 but the only winning team they beat was Nebraska, 41-21, but that was an impressive comeback road win. They lost to Stanford and Oregon back to back so they weren't going to upset the natural order of things in the Pac-12. In their last three games they beat Washington, lost to ASU, and beat USC to finish behind the Sun Devils in the South. They dispatched Virginia Tech 42-12 in the Sun Bowl for their 10th win.

Last year's prediction: We ranked UCLA #23 and projected an 8-4 season so we were a bit behind the curve last year. But game-by-game we actually had everything correct until the last three; we made them underdogs in all three and they won two of them.

2014 Outlook

UCLA 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Virginia	94%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Memphis	98%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Texas	79%	W
9/25	Thu	@	*Arizona State	76%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Utah	91%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	67%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*California	93%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Colorado	96%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	92%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Washington	75%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*USC	82%	W
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Stanford	83%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 14%

Naturally for such a high-ranked team we predict a very good year for the Bruins, and favor them in every game. But when you add up the odds the expected number of wins is closer to 10—even while 11-1 is the most likely outcome (the "mode"). Going 12-0 is about a 15% proposition.

The first two games don't make much of a dent in their undefeated aspirations but road games at Texas and Arizona State both carry risk. Oregon is their toughest opponent but they get the Ducks at home a week after Utah.

The next two games are on the road but California and Colorado shouldn't offer a daunting challenge, nor should Arizona at home. Washington on the road is another matter but the Bruins should be able to handle it if they're as good as we think.

They close with two killer opponents—USC and Stanford—but both at home. The schedule is pretty kind that way, giving them these two and Oregon at home while saving Cal and Colorado for the road.

As the #1 team in the South they should expect to go to the Pac-12 Championship game, now played on a neutral field in Santa Clara, CA. We've recalculated our odds for UCLA to go to the College Football Playoff at 57%, as they are in our top four. The main reason they wouldn't go is that they would probably end up facing Oregon twice, and the Ducks are their chief competition for a CFB bid.

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SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

2014 Pre-season Rankings: #2 Alabama Crimson Tide

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Alabama Crimson Tide  (SEC #1; West #1)

#2	2013 Results	AP #7 USA #8	Strength:#4  Success:#9  Overall:#3
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Lost to Oklahoma 45-31 (Sugar)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #2 | USA #2 | Lindy's #2 | Athlon #2 | Steele #2
		Record: 11-1	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 60%

Alabama is the consensus #2 team this year, but we don't go just with the crowd, and we aren't afraid to make a daring, unorthodox pick like putting Alabama at...NUMBER THREE. Oh well, nevermind. UCLA lost a fraction of a point on revision and Alabama ended up #2 anyway.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #18 (raw) #12 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #13 (adjusted)

The conventional wisdom is that Alabama won't be quite as good passing but will be even more dominant running the ball, and we think the conventional wisdom is correct, with the offense ending up just about the same—even with Lane Kiffin hired to run the show.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #50 (raw) #40 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #27
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #59 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #30

AJ McCarron (3,063 yards, 28 TDs, 7 int) moves on after a stellar Alabama career and there is question as to how good he really was—whether he was just a "game manager" for a great team. Well, I think we can say that at the very least he was an incredible game manager. The assumption is that Florida State grad transfer Jacob Coker (250 yards, 0:1) will win the starting job over senior Blake Sims (167, 2:0). Six of the eight top pass catchers are back including #1 Amari Cooper (736 yards) and #3 DeAndrew White (534) while #2 Kevin Norwood (568) departs. The pieces are there for a stronger passing game, but we think that Nick Saban wants a game manager at QB, and it's unlikely the replacement can do as good of a job as McCarron did.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #26 (raw) #25 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #13 (adj.)

Alabama is stocked up here, as usual, with their three main rushers returning. Junior TJ Yeldon (1,235 yards, 14 TDs) created expectations so high as a freshman that even last year's effort didn't meet them, and some have touted Kenyan Drake (694 yards, 8 TDs) as the better back. Then there's Derrick Henry (382) who made waves late in the year with his 10.9 per-carry average. The offensive line should do its job just fine, as starters Austin Shepherd, Arie Kouandjio, and Ryan Kelly are back. The ground game should be pretty impressive with three feature backs in committee rotation.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #2    Pass Defense  per-game: #16   Per-attempt: #21
Defense 4 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #4 (raw) #3 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #70	'13 picks: #65
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #1 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #57	'14 picks: #83

Last year we predicted that Alabama wouldn't have the #1 opponent-adjusted scoring defense, and it happened—in fact they plummeted to #3 using our All-Division Strength ratings for scoring defense. This year they lose a lot of starters once again. Brandon Ivory is the only starter back on the defensive line, though sack leader AShawn Robinson (5.5 sacks) moves into the starting lineup. At linebacker, top tackler CJ Mosley (108 tackles, 9 tackles for loss) is gone. The secondary two draft picks and backup Eddie Jackson tore his ACL in the spring (may only miss 4 games, though). They do get 2012 starter Nick Perry back, however. We think the defense slips a bit, but the #1 and #2 teams from last year (Stanford, Michigan State) slip even more, so the Tide should again claim the top spot!

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Cade Foster (12 of 17 FG) and punter Cody Mandell (47.1 average) are gone.
• Return Game:  Christion Jones had three touchdown returns last year, two on punts where he averaged 14.0 yards, and one on a kickoff (28.7). He's back.
• Turnovers projection:  Though Coker and Sims are both upperclassmen, there's a worry that they'll cause more turnovers than the cautious McCarron (7 last year).
• Injury correction:  Alabama was a bit fortunate on offense when it came to turnovers, and that probably won't last.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #2          2013 Recruiting Rank: #3
As usual, Alabama has nearly the very best recruiting by our rankings, and even though we didn't put Alabama #1 for both years like most people, they are easily #1 for the last two years combined. Other teams may have a turn at #1 but they follow it with a class outside the top 25. Alabama stays at or near #1 year after year. This year's class is loaded at the top with five consensus 5-star picks: Offensive tackle Cam Robinson (Louisiana), defensive end DaShawn Hand (Virginia), cornerbacks Tony Brown (Texas) and Marion Humphrey (Alabama), and linebacker Rashaan Evans (from Auburn, AL). We had the Tide #1, but when they greyshirted another 5-star pick it dropped them to #2. I'm sure Nick Saban is crying about that, and his recent $55 million contract. Saban made waves with the unexpected choice of Lane Kiffin as 'Bama's new offensive coordinator. Genius move, or the beginning of the end?

2013 Recap 
Alabama started the year ranked #1 and they held that designation for a long time, even if they did a few things to make it questionable as to whether another team might be able to beat them. Their offense certainly wasn't up to snuff in beating Virginia Tech 35-10 with interceptions and kick returns, and Texas A&M nearly won the 49-42 shootout. They blanked Mississippi 25-0, but was their offense dominant enough? By the time they played LSU some wondered if the Tigers would get them, but they dominated 38-17, and though they were lackluster at Mississippi State (20-7) they were a healthy favorite at Auburn. The game was tight enough that Alabama needed a last second field goal to win it, and we know what happened next (see here, for those of you who don't follow college football at all). Deprived of the national title chance, the Tide limped into the Sugar Bowl and, reminiscent of their loss to Utah in 2008, lost 45-31 to Oklahoma.

Last year's prediction: Last year we weren't quite the mavericks we are this year, and we joined the bandwagon in ranking Alabama #1 and favoring them to win every game and the national title. Our cumulative projection did call for a loss at 11-1, but we never would have guessed Auburn.

2014 Outlook

Alabama 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	West Virginia	95%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	99%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Southern Miss	99%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Florida	87%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Mississippi	69%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Arkansas	91%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	90%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Tennessee	94%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*LSU	70%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	88%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	Western Carolina	100%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	72%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 11-1  Odds of 12-0: 19%

Again, we pick Alabama as the favorite in every game. The odds say there's "only" a 19% chance they'll go 12-0, and 11-1 is the most likely outcome. The cumulative projection actually is on the cusp of 10-2 and 11-1, as there are several tough games on Alabama's slate. But as the top team in the SEC they're supposed to clean house.

The opener in Atlanta against West Virginia doesn't hold much drama, but it's a nail-biter compared to Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss at home. Florida will be much better this year but they're not ready to beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa.

Four of the next five games are on the road: among them, Mississippi, which might be the toughest game on their schedule, and if not Ole Miss it's probably LSU. Arkansas and Tennessee are still flailing by comparison. In between those road games they get Texas A&M at home but without Johnny Manziel there's not the same danger of getting beat.

They finish with Auburn again, and the Tide will be out for revenge and playing at home; we figure they'll win that one. And they'll go for touchdowns only.

As a team in our top four, naturally the Tide should be a favorite for the College Football Playoff; we have their pre-season odds at 60%. Of course if they win the SEC Championship—they'll probably have to go through Georgia—with 1 loss or no losses, they're in. A 2-loss SEC champ has a good shot, too, depending on how the rest of the country shapes up. So unless they take a rare third loss—which has only happened once in the last 6 years—they're in the running.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #4 Oregon Ducks

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Oregon Ducks  (Pac-12 #2; North #1)

#4	2013 Results	AP #9 USA #9	Strength:#3  Success:#11  Overall:#4
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Beat Texas 30-7 (Alamo)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #3 | USA #4 | Lindy's #4 | Athlon #6 | Steele #4
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 12%

Once again Oregon looks like one of the top five teams in the country. The goal is to be one of the top four before the bowl season.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #4 (raw) #3 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #3 (adjusted)

The Ducks lose a lot of receivers but return most of their ground game, so while the balance could change a bit but the offense will still be among the nation's very best.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #22 (raw) #18 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #21
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #26 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #16

Marcus Mariota (3,665 yards, 31 TDs, 4 int) is a leading Heisman contender heading into the 2014 season, but most of his top receivers are gone. Josh Huff (1,140 yards, 12 TDs) departs, and #2 Bralon Addison (890 yards, 7 TDs) tore an ACL in the spring and his return is doubtful. Johnny Mundt (#4 w/281) is the leading returner, while four other returning Ducks had over 100 yards. The offensive line might be even stronger this year (allowed 18 sacks). Mariota could match his 2013 production if Addison returns healthy, but matching his 31:4 ratio would be even better.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #10 (raw) #10 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #6 (adj.)

Oregon loses DeAthony Thomas, but he was out a big chunk of the season and had just 594 rushing yards (8 TDs). The Ducks get Byron Marshall (1,038 yards, 14 TDs) and Thomas Tyner (711, 9) back, along with QB Mariota (715, 9). Mariota was much less effective when he couldn't run well, for example against Stanford. The offensive line returns starters Hroniss Grasu, Hamani Stevens, and Jake Fischer while Cameron Hunt started half-time as a freshman. Tyler Johnstone was back, too, but tore his ACL over the summer. The line should still be better than last year and the ground game with it.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #55    Pass Defense  per-game: #5   Per-attempt: #5
Defense 5 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #14 (raw) #12 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #38	'13 picks: #39
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #13 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #27	'14 picks: #45

Two starters return to Oregon's D-Line including Tony Washington (7.5 sacks), and two starting linebackers return in the 4-3 as well. Top tackler Derrick Malone (105 tackles) is back but reserve LB Rahim Cassell recently left the program. The secondary loses three starters including Avery Patterson while Ifo Ekpre-Olomu returns for his senior year. Despite the losses—and suffering almost no major injuries last year—the Ducks don't drop much in our scoring defense rankings mostly due to how the other teams around them adjust (they would have fallen to 19th in last year's rankings).

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter/kicker Alejandro Maldanado (39.9 punt average, 3 of 5 FG) is gone, but kicker Matt Wogan (7 of 9 FG after taking over placekicking last year) is back.
• Return Game:  De'Anthony Thomas averaged 24.4 yards per punt return last year with one touchdown; Bralon Addison averaged 14.1 yards per punt return with two touchdowns. Thomas is gone, and Addison's status is uncertain (ACL) but he'll probably miss at least half the year if not more.
• Turnovers projection:  For as often as Oregon coughed up the ball, they didn't lose that many fumbles, which was pretty lucky. They better get control of the former or they'll find that the latter is normally in line with the law of averages.
• Injury correction:  The Ducks had a lot of injuries on offense but didn't lose any starters on defense all year. That suggests a strong offensive year coming and the defense could be weaker, assuming normal injury rates going forward.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #29          2013 Recruiting Rank: #20
Mark Helfrich's 2nd recruiting class dips a bit from his first, which was weaker than Chip Kelly's last one. It still ranks above-average for the Pac-12. Helfrich's first year was a mixed success for recent Oregon squads at 11-2 after three years of 12 wins. Standards are pretty high here these days!

2013 Recap 
Oregon blew out their first 5 opponents, scoring 55 points or more each contest. None of them ended with a winning record, however. But they beat 9-4 Washington 45-24, bowl-bound Washington State 63-38, and 10-3 UCLA 42-14. So they were favored against Stanford on the road but were stuffed for most of the game, losing 26-20. Two games later they were dismantled by Arizona 42-16. They escaped Oregon State 36-35. During this time Marcus Mariota's knee was bothering him and he couldn't run. In the bowl game a healthy Mariota destroyed Texas 30-7 in the Alamo Bowl.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Oregon #2—basically one spot above the consensus. We projected an 11-1 regular season record, but naturally as the #2 team there were no individual games where we had the Ducks as underdogs. They didn't make the BCS Championship game like we expected—nor even the Pac-12 Championship game. But it's not like they were a bad team—they finished #3 in Strength.

2014 Outlook

Oregon 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	South Dakota	100%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Michigan State	78%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Wyoming	99%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Washington State	83%	W
10/2	Thu	vs.	*Arizona	88%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*UCLA	33%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Washington	83%	W
10/24	Fri	@	*California	90%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	79%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Utah	73%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	98%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Oregon State	77%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 6%

We pick Oregon to win every game this year except one—they play UCLA in Los Angeles, and the Bruins are ranked higher. Add in all the other "partial losses" and the cumulative odds suggest a 10-2 year.

South Dakota is an obvious win, but even Michigan State—13-1 last year—ranks as a fairly certain win for the Ducks at home. It's one of the key games for the College Football Playoff and will help set the relative perception of the Pac-12 and Big Ten. Wyoming is another gimme and after Washington State and Arizona, Oregon should be 5-0, or at least 4-1.

Then the UCLA game is critical for the Pac-12 race. Even though they're in separate divisions, it could knock one team or the other out of the Pac-12 championship game. If things play out like our game-by-game charts indicate, then these teams will rematch in Santa Clara for the Pac-12 title.

In the 2nd half of the season Oregon has Washington and Stanford at home which should help them win both of those, and having Utah and Oregon State on the road makes those games the tougher pair.

Oregon has a 5% chance of going undefeated by our numbers, and a 12% chance of making the College Football Playoff. A 12-1 Oregon is still in strong contention for the playoff, and they could be 10-2 and still make it under the scenario where they lose to Michigan State and UCLA, then beat UCLA in the rematch. The easiest way of course is to go 12-0, so let's hope Marcus Mariota keeps his knees healthy.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #5 Baylor Bears

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Baylor Bears  (Big Twelve #1)

#5	2013 Results	AP #13 USA #13	Strength:#2  Success:#10  Overall:#2
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Lost to UCF 52-42 (Fiesta)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #10 | USA #10 | Lindy's #10 | Athlon #10 | Steele #9
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 58%

Baylor is #10 almost across the board, but we put the Bears a little higher. Look for more shootouts as the offense actually improves while the defense gets weaker.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #1 (raw) #1 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #1 (adjusted)

Despite some key losses, Baylor's offense may maintain its #1 ranking.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #6 (raw) #4 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #43
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #2 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #46

Can Bryce Petty (4,200 yards, 32 TDs, 3 int) possibly increase his production from last year? Even while losing #3 all-time receiver Tevin Reese (867 yards, 8 TDs last year)? Well, consider that last year's #1 Antwan Goodley (1,339 yards, 13 TDs) is back with Levin Norwood (733, 8), Corey Coleman (527) and Clay Fuller (512). In all, 5 of the top 7 return (#7 Robbie Rhodes dismissed). The offensive line loses three starters but it may be just as good at protecting Petty (22 sacks last year), who probably won't match last year's insane 32:3 ratio but he could surpass his yardage from '13. Backup Seth Russell (427, 3:3) returns as well.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #14 (raw) #12 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #23 (adj.)

Lache Seastrunk (1,177 yards, 11 TDs) didn't win the Heisman as he promised, but he had a good year before heading to the NFL. Glasco Martin (509 yards, 7 TDs) also departs, leaving #2 Shock Linwood (894, 8) as feature back; he filled in well when Seastrunk and Martin were hurt. Four others rushed for over 100 yards including QB Petty who had 14 touchdown runs. The offensive line returns just two starters, Desmine Hilliard and Spencer Drango, but Troy Baker started in 2012 and they add transfer Blake Muir (starter at Hawaii in 2012). The running game looks weaker but not weak by any means.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #61    Pass Defense  per-game: #26   Per-attempt: #34
Defense 4 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #41 (raw) #40 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #53	'13 picks: #12
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #80 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #73	'14 picks: #57

Baylor's defensive line loses Chris McAllister (6.5 sacks) but reserves Jamal Palmer (5 sacks) and Shawn Oakman (10.5 tackles for loss) might have been their best linemen; they move into starting roles this year. At linebacker top tackler Eddie Lackey (108 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss) is gone, and four of five are gone in the secondary (4-2-5) including KJ Morton (10 pass breakups) and Demetri Goodson (13 pass breakups). We don't think they'll match last year's 32 sacks nor come close to last year's 19 interceptions, and with 6 of their 8 top tacklers gone the defense becomes more of a liability.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Spencer Roth (45.8 average) is back but kicker Aaron Jones (14 of 23 FG) is gone.
• Return Game:  Corey Coleman averaged 28.4 yards per kickoff return and had a touchdown return, while Levi Norwood averaged 9.6 yards per punt return with two touchdowns.
• Turnovers projection:  We think Baylor will have a lot fewer than last year's 19 interceptions on defense; this will hurt their turnover margin as Petty can't go much lower than 3.
• Injury correction:  Baylor didn't have an excessive amount of injuries on offense or defense.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #13          2013 Recruiting Rank: #34
Art Briles had a great recruiting year, better even than the years immediately following RG3. It may have been last year's great season, or perhaps the indication that the program is going to excel even after Griffin's departure. The relative decline of Texas probably had something to do with it. Whatever the reason, Baylor has their best class in a long time, ranking 2nd in the Big Twelve. The star recruit is wide receiver KD Cannon from Mt. Pleasant, TX.

2013 Recap 
Baylor scored 69, 70, 70, and 73 points in their first four games. Beating Wofford, Buffalo, and UL-Monroe didn't really impress but the latter two were bowl-eligible. West Virginia scored 42 in the 4th game and showed that the Bears' defense wasn't great. At Kansas State they scored just 35 (won 35-25) which started a patter of much weaker road play. They bounced back to put 71 up on Iowa State but didn't "prove" themselves until beating Oklahoma 41-12. Two games later they fell apart against Oklahoma State 49-17 on the road. The Bears edged TCU (road again) and throttled Texas (home) to finish 11-1. They were overconfident in the Fiesta Bowl against Central Florida and lost 52-42.

Last year's prediction: We didn't have confidence in Bryce Petty last year (we do now) and figured the offense would take a step down. Instead it took a huge step up. We ranked the Bears #28 and projected a 7-5 record.

2014 Outlook

Baylor 2014 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sun	vs.	SMU	99%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Northwestern St.	100%	W
9/12	Fri	@	Buffalo	97%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Iowa State	90%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Texas	71%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*TCU	83%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*West Virginia	87%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	98%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	52%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	88%	W
11/29	Sat	N	*Texas Tech	86%	W
12/6	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	88%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 15%

We don't see the Bears losing a whole lot of games. In fact, we favor them pretty heavily in most games and favor them to be 12-0. The cumulative projection is right around 10.5 wins and their actual odds of going 12-0 is 16%.

The first few games should be foregone conclusions with SMU, Northwestern State, and Buffalo unable to match up with Baylor's offense. They will be of interest only for the final scores, which will tell us something about how good the offense and defense are compared to last year's model. The Buffalo game is on the road, and might give a hint as to how the Bears might fare at the next two at Iowa State and Texas. Recall that Baylor was considerably better at home last year.

The next real challenge, the toughest on the slate, is Oklahoma. Since that game is on the road don't expect anything like last year's 41-12 bulldozing; we still favor Baylor but it should be a very close game. The last three games should all be relatively easy as none of them is a road game.

The question is, what are Baylor's chances for going to the College Football Playoff? If they are undefeated, they are in—there's no worry that 1-loss teams might hold out a 12-0 Big Twelve team. At 11-1 their odds against any 12-1 teams is a concern, but there might not be many 12-1 teams out there. Overall we give them a 58% chance to make the playoff based on how we rate them and how the other contenders might finish. In other words, they are one of our four favorites to make it. 

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #6 Auburn Tigers

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Auburn Tigers  (SEC #2; West #2)

#6	2013 Results	AP #2 USA #2	Strength:#10  Success:#2  Overall:#5
		Record: 12-2	Bowl: Lost to Florida State 34-31 (BCS championship)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #6 | USA #5 | Lindy's #6 | Athlon #5 | Steele #6
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.1%   Playoff odds: 2%

There's a pretty broad consensus that the Tigers are either just inside or outside the top 5. The coaches and Athlon have Auburn #5; the sportswriters, Lindy's, and Phil Steele put them #6.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #12 (raw) #7 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #6 (adjusted)

The ground game can't be as strong without Tre Mason, but the passing game will make up for it and keep the offense just as potent.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #110 (raw) #103 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #25
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #70 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #27

Auburn did not have a balanced offense last year and won't be this year, but the passing game won't be an afterthought or something used as a surprise tactic. Nick Marshall (1,976 yards, 14 TDs, 6 int) has room to grow in his senior year as a passer and he has nearly all his targets back. Sammie Coates (902 yards, 7 TDs) leads a group of six returning players who had over 100 yards. Marshall should have a more productive year and for insurance backups Jeremy Johnson (422 yards, 6:2) and Jonathan Wallace (720 yards, 4:4 in 2012) are back.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #2 (raw) #1 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #3 (adj.)

The Auburn running game was an awesome thing to behold last year as it got stronger and stronger each game, finally overtaking Ohio State as the #1 opponent-adjusted ground game in the nation. The big reason was Tre Mason (1,816 yards, 23 TDs) who was unstoppable late in the season. Mason is gone but QB Nick Marshall (1,068 yards, 12 TDs) is back along with Corey Grant (647 yards) and Cameron Artis-Payne (610). The offensive line returns three starters: Chad Slade and Reese Dismukes are seniors and Avery Young is a sophomore. Another sophomore starter, Alex Kozan, was back but needed back surgery and is out for the year. Even without Mason the ground game will be potent as Grant averaged 9.8 yards per carry and Marshall and Artis-Payne over 6 ypc each.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #40    Pass Defense  per-game: #78   Per-attempt: #39
Defense 5.5 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #51 (raw) #23 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #37	'13 picks: #71
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #28 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #55	'14 picks: #71

The big loss on this side of the ball is defensive end Dee Ford (10.5 sacks) and with him gone the pass rush is far less effective. The defensive line returns two starters but also probably loses projected starter Carl Lawson who is out with an ACL injury for at least half the season. One of the two pure linebackers returns, and back at the defense's "Star" position (linebacker/safety hybrid) is Robenson Therezie, but he has "eligibility issues" and may or may not play this year. The secondary has two starters back including Jonathan Mincy (14 pass breakups) but they lose Chris Davis (15 pass breakups). Overall it's a mixed bag with the defense slipping only a small amount in our estimation, mostly due to the fact that they were underrated at #23 in 2013 because of all the injuries they suffered.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Cody Parkey (15 of 21 FG) and punter Steven Clark (42.6 average) are gone.
• Return Game:  Both Chris Davis (18.7 average on punt returns) and Tre Mason (26.3 on kickoffs) had a touchdown return last year, and both are gone this year.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't predict a big change in Auburn's turnover profile.
• Injury correction:  The defense was injury-plagued and therefore underperformed, which means they should be better off this year than many would expect.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #6          2013 Recruiting Rank: #12
Recruiting is even better in Gus Malzahn's second year, but playing for a national title will do that I suppose. They're still only 4th, believe it or not, in the SEC with this class. The best catches are running back Roc Thomas and linebacker Tre Williams, both from Alabama and both consensus 5-star recruits.

2013 Recap 
Auburn's 2013 was a lot like their 2010—they started slow and just kept getting better and better. They opened with three home wins, edging mediocre Washington State 31-24 and beating Mississippi State 24-20. They lost to LSU 35-21, and at this point they were tracking our 5-7 prediction exactly. But they beat Ole Miss 30-22, and two games later topped Texas A&M 45-41 and at 6-1 they were for real. Beating FAU, Arkansas, and Tennessee didn't impress anyone, but they were 9-1, and then the crazy lucky breaks started. They beat Georgia on a last-second, almost-intercepted, double-deflected touchdown pass, and if you thought they couldn't top that, they did the next week against Alabama with the "Kick Six" touchdown return of a missed field goal. They bulldozed Missouri in the SEC title game and were doing the same to Florida State in the BCS title game—for a while. FSU came back to win 34-31 but it was a hell of a journey from 3-9 to 12-2.

Last year's prediction: This one is embarrassing, but at least we are in good company—just about everyone, really, picked Auburn to be better but not BETTER. Right before we published our review Auburn announced some player suspensions that took the team from 6-6 to 5-7 in our projection, meaning we didn't think they'd make a bowl game in 2013 let alone play for the national championship. We ranked them #51, which was in line with the other "experts." No coach or sportswriter put them in the top 25 (not a single vote in either) ; unless you live in Auburn, Alabama and are a very optimistic person, you probably didn't put them in your top 25 either. We ended our review "Let's see how much magic Malzahn has in him." Apparently, a lot!

2014 Outlook

Auburn 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	87%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	99%	W
9/18	Thu	@	Kansas State	75%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	99%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*LSU	71%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	63%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	73%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Mississippi	54%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	81%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Georgia	47%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	Samford	100%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Alabama	28%	L
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.1%

How can a team ranked so high be projected to go 9-3? Well, it doesn't help when you play three teams ranked just as high and play them both on the road. That's the situation Auburn is in when they face Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama all within the last five games of the season.

The early part of the season should be easy—even their opening week SEC opponent is Arkansas, not the toughest the conference can offer up, and it's at home. San Jose State and Louisiana Tech are pretty much freebies in the opening month, with a trip to Kansas State in between to make things interesting.

Then some tougher opponents emerge: LSU at home, Mississippi State on the road, and South Carolina at home should all be wins but beating all three of those is easier said than done. Then comes the first tossup game (Mississippi), followed by Texas A&M (they should beat the Aggies), and the 2nd tossup (Georgia). They get a break with Samford the week before Alabama; the Tide are the one team we distinctly favor over the Tigers. They will want revenge and it's a road game for Auburn.

It's very plausible that Auburn could be undefeated coming into Alabama, and we expect the Tide to be, making it one of the big games of the year. But Auburn also could have a pair of losses already, maybe more. There are so many tough teams in the SEC and Auburn plays a buttload of the best ones—all of the six best SEC teams other than Auburn themselves! That's why for our final odds we only give Auburn a 2% chance to play in the College Football Playoff—they've got a tough road.

Of course, we wouldn't have given them a 0.02% chance of playing for the national title last year and they made it, so 2% is practically a guarantee...!

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #7 Georgia Bulldogs

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Georgia Bulldogs  (SEC #3; East #1)

#7	2013 Results	AP #31 USA NR	Strength:#22  Success:#20  Overall:#20
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Lost to Nebraska 24-19 (Gator)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #12 | USA #12 | Lindy's #12 | Athlon #8 | Steele #8
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.8%   Playoff odds: 27%

Last year everyone had Georgia in the top 5 (we did too). They finished outside the top 25 so everyone seems a little gun-shy to put them back in the top ten, but we do.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #25 (raw) #14 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #14 (adjusted)

You can't expect Hutson Mason to fully replace Aaron Murray, but the running game can pick up the slack and the offense shouldn't miss a beat.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #16 (raw) #13 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #29
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #17 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #39

Aaron Murray (3,075 yards, 26 TDs, 9 int) leaves after four years and backup Hutson Mason (968 yards, 5:3) will lead the team this year. Georgia had 12 players with over 100 receiving yards and 9 are back, led by Chris Conley (651 yards) and Michael Bennett (538); they also have Malcolm Mitchell (572 yards in '12) back from injury. Though they lose their all-time leading passer, Mason is a 5th-year senior and started the last two games of the season when Murray went out with an ACL tear. With so many targets available the Bulldogs should approach last year's production, though probably less efficiently.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #67 (raw) #33 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #29 (adj.)

Todd Gurley (989 yards, 10 TDs) was one of the nation's best running backs last year but was injured and missed several games. He's back as is Keith Marshall (246) who had 759 yards in 2012 but missed most of 2013. Two others topped 300 and both are back though JJ Green is now a defensive back. The offensive line loses three starters; David Andrews is the only full-time starter back while Kolton Houston and John Theus started half-time. That's enough to support Gurley and Marshall who, if they stay healthy, should top last year's production.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #13    Pass Defense  per-game: #80   Per-attempt: #61
Defense 9 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #78 (raw) #47 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #19	'13 picks: #93
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #30 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #8	'14 picks: #81

The Georgia defensive line returns Ray Drew (6 sacks) but Garrison Smith (6 sacks) is gone, and possible starter Jon Taylor was dismissed after being arrested twice in the offseason. The Bulldogs are set at linebacker as all four starters return: #1 tackler Ranik Wilson (133 tackles), #2 tackler Amario Herrera (112 tackles), Leonard Floyd (6.5 sacks), and Jordan Jenkins (5 sacks) form one of the nation's best corps, and the the number of sacks (33) should increase. The secondary received some back news when Tray Matthews was dismissed but otherwise is in decent shape and the D should top last year's meager 7 picks. Overall the defense returns 7 of its top 9 tacklers and should be back up near top 25 quality after last year's dip.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Marshall Morgan (22 of 24 FG) is back along with punter Collin Barber (44.1 average) so the Bulldog kicking game should remain solid.
• Return Game:  RB (now CB) JJ Green was the team's best kickoff returner with a 24.0 average; he's back along with Reggie Davis who averaged just 3.3 yards per punt return.
• Turnovers projection:  Mason will probably have more interceptions than Murray, but the defense should get back some of those.
• Injury correction:  The offense had more than its share of injuries, and that shouldn't happen this year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #11          2013 Recruiting Rank: #2
Georgia's 2014 recruiting class is only average for the SEC. It's far smaller than last year's class which we ranked #2, but at the top it's higher-quality, with three consensus 5-star players. Two are running backs (Nick Chubb and Sony Michel) and another is a defensive lineman (Lorenzo Carter). Chubb and Carter are from Georgia, Michel from Florida.

2013 Recap 
Georgia had high expectations last year but lost right off the bat at Clemson, 38-35, and from then on they were just trying to get back in the national title hunt. They won four straight, beating LSU 44-41 but escaping vs. Tennessee 34-31 in overtime. At 4-1 they lost to Missouri at home, 41-26, and at Vanderbilt 31-27 and then even an SEC title was a longshot. They won 4 of 5 including a double overtime win at Georgia Tech with Mason leading a huge comeback, but they lost to Nebraska in the bowl game 24-19.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Georgia #4 in the nation (they were #5 in the polls) and projected a 10-2 record. We had the Bulldogs favored in every game (the cumulative projection was the 10-2). It wasn't the drop in defense that threw us off, since we projected the D would fall to #44 (it fell to #47). But the offense was supposed to jump into the top five but instead declined, mainly due to the ground game dropping. That was due to injuries to Gurley and Marshall for the most part. In any case, we ended up pretty far off—by our odds, finishing 8-4 was slightly less likely than 12-0.

2014 Outlook

Georgia 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Clemson	74%	W
9/13	Sat	@	*South Carolina	51%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Troy	99%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	92%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	96%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Missouri	62%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Arkansas	80%	W
11/1	Sat	N	*Florida	66%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Kentucky	86%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	54%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	Charleston Southern	100%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	Georgia Tech	90%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Bowl eligible: 99.8%

Look familiar? Just like last year we favor Georgia in every game—if the South Carolina and Auburn tossup games fall their way. There are a lot more close games than we had for the Bulldogs last year, so the cumulative projection is right on the cusp of 9-3 and 10-2, with a 5% chance of going undefeated.

This year's game against Clemson is in Athens and the Tigers aren't the team they were last year—true, both teams lose their star quarterbacks, but Clemson loses more overall. The Bulldogs should win that game and then they have 2 weeks to prepare for South Carolina, which is anyone's ball game. It also might be the deciding game in the SEC East, this early in the year.

The three games at home should all be breathers—should be. Troy, of course, but Tennessee almost beat the Bulldogs last year, and Vanderbilt did beat them. Much tougher are Missouri and Florida, with Arkansas and Kentucky somewhere in between.

Auburn is a key game that could affect both the East and West division races. The Bulldogs are at home which might make them the favorite. After the annual SEC vacation week of playing FCS teams in November, they face rival Georgia Tech and this year's game shouldn't be as close as the last one, but you never know.

Since Georgia is our top SEC East team, they have a great shot at making it to the championship game, where they'd be an underdog but all this gives them a good shot at the College Football Playoff. We estimate their odds at roughly 27%; we've raised them from earlier estimates after we factored in their good chances of being in the SEC title game, which is a doorway to the CFP.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #8 BYU Cougars

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

BYU Cougars  (Independent #1)

#8	2013 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#25  Success:#46  Overall:#29
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Lost to Washington 31-16 (Fight Hunger)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #43 | USA #38 | Lindy's #32 | Athlon #35 | Steele #35
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 12%

We have a few off-the-charts rankings in our top 128, but this is the big one. Everyone else has BYU treading water this year while we have them taking off in a rocketship.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #56 (raw) #36 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #8 (adjusted)

With Taysom Hill back along with one of the country's best offensive lines, BYU's offense could really be something this year.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #75 (raw) #62 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #109
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #35 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #66

Quarterback Taysom Hill (2,938 yards, 19 TDs, 14 int) is a decent passer, productive but not that efficient (54%) as a sophomore. He loses top target Cody Hoffman (894 yards) and three of the top four. But four of the top eight return led by Mitch Matthews (#3 w/397), and they get grad transfer Jordan Leslie who had 612 yards last year at UTEP and 937 in '12. Sacks were a big problem last year (38 allowed) but that should improve a lot as all five starters return to the line. We figure Hill will make big strides in the passing portion of his job description.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #11 (raw) #9 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #2 (adj.)

BYU had a powerful rushing attack last year mainly due to two men, quarterback Taysom Hill (1,344 yards, 10 TDs) and running back Jamaal Williams (1,233, 7). The three others who topped 200 yards are back, too. The offensive line is loaded: Solomone Kafu and Michael Yech started full-time, DeOndre Wesley and Kyle Johnson started most games, and Edward Fusi and Terrance Alletto each started half-time at center. That's pretty much the full lineup, and Ryker Matthews was a full-time starter in 2012. The ground game looks like one of the nation's best for 2014.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #33    Pass Defense  per-game: #54   Per-attempt: #20
Defense 6 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #24 (raw) #25 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #68	'13 picks: #73
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #21 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #64	'14 picks: #15

BYU's defense loses one starter from the 3-4 defensive line and another, Brandon Kaufusi, moves to linebacker. There, they return Alani Fua (10 pass breakups) but lose top tackler Uani Unga (143 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss) and Kyle Van Noy (13.5 tackles for loss). The secondary loses Daniel Sorensen (12 pass breakups) but three starters return, plus they get Jordan Johnson (15 pass breakups in '12) back from injury, and well as Nebraska transfer Harvey Jackson. Though the defense looks weaker up front they should stop a lot more drives with interceptions. Last year they had 13 picks and they return a huge amount of pass breakups which points to many more interceptions; this should keep their scoring defense as good or better than last year's.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Scott Arellano (41.0 average) is back for his senior year but the Cougars must replace kicker Austin Sorensen (21 of 26 field goals).
• Return Game:  Kick returner Adam Hine (27.2 average) is back while main punt fielder JD Falslev (9.7 average, 1 touchdown) is gone.
• Turnovers projection:  BYU got a bit lucky on fumbles last year but Taysom Hill should cut back a bit on his interceptions, and we think the defense will markedly increase theirs.
• Injury correction:  The team had more injuries than average, particularly on defense, another reason the D maintains its quality despite some key personnel losses; they shouldn't have the same bad luck this year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #76          2013 Recruiting Rank: #61
Bronco Mendenhall continues to recruit at about the same clip, on average, during BYU's first three years as an independent since leaving the Mountain West conference. Of course, many of these freshmen end up going on missions for two years and rejoin the team at age 20, playing until they are 24 or so. BYU also has the added challenge of the infamous Honor Code, which has already caused them to lose Jamaal Williams for the first game of the year. The school no longer announces the reason for these suspensions, probably because they were getting too much ridicule for dismissing players for having premarital sex.

2013 Recap 
The Cougars started out with a confounding set of two games. They lost to Virginia 19-16, then belted Texas 40-21. The explanation at the time was that Texas was horrible, but they finished 8-5 and Virginia 2-10. In any case, they lost the next game 23-13 to 5-7 Utah. BYU was a lot more consistent after that, winning five straight games over bowl teams MTSU, Utah State, Georgia Tech, Houston, and Boise State. They lost at Wisconsin 27-17 and Notre Dame 23-13 and finished 8-4. They lost to Washington 31-16 in the Fight Hunger Bowl.

Last year's prediction: We ranked BYU #31 and projected an 8-4 record. We figured the scoring offense would rank 40th and they ended up 36th, we downgraded the defense to #20 and it ended up #25. But we didn't see the running game exploding to near the top ten. Game by game, BYU was an enigma early and we got the first three games wrong. But after that we missed only the Utah State game.

2014 Outlook

BYU 2014 schedule & forecast
8/29	Fri	@	Connecticut	95%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Texas	60%	W
9/11	Thu	vs.	Houston	65%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Virginia	93%	W
10/3	Fri	vs.	Utah State	89%	W
10/9	Thu	@	UCF	70%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	Nevada	92%	W
10/24	Fri	@	Boise State	68%	W
11/1	Sat	@	Middle Tennessee	95%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	UNLV	98%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	Savannah State	100%	W
11/29	Sat	@	California	79%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 10%

BYU's schedule is not very hard this year on the whole. Over half the teams on it were bowl teams last year, and there are some challenges early, but we have the Cougars ranked so high that we favor them in each individual contest. The cumulative projection is for a 10-2 record.

UConn shouldn't be that much of a challenge, even in Storrs, if BYU is at all close to being a top ten team. The next two games will probably tell us everything we need to know about them. Texas will be a good team, probably not a great one, and if the Cougars can win that on the road—even as Texas longs for revenge for last year's embarrassment—then we know BYU is at least somewhat for real. Houston is another team that we rank much higher than anyone else (we rank them higher than Texas, making Houston the highest-rated foe on BYU's slate). For us, that game is one of the biggest non-Power Conference matchups of the year, a clash of two top 25 teams.

If BYU is 3-0 here they have a great shot of winning out. They should beat Virginia this season at home, and Utah State may be dangerous but they get the Aggies at home, too. Central Florida on the road will be another challenge but we see the Knights being down quite a bit without Blake Bortles. BYU should top Nevada and if they get past Boise State the next three are practically gimmes. California on the road is their last hurdle but the Bears were 1-11 last year.

By these odds BYU has a 10% chance of going undefeated, and we give them about a 12% chance of making the College Football Playoff. The schedule is so easy even an undefeated Cougar team is likely not among the top four—unless they really dominate, or unless Houston or Texas or some other opponent turns into a great win in retrospect. Still, any undefeated team is going to get a strong look, and they have one of the better chances out there, being favored in every game. That's why our CFP odds are greater than BYU's odds of going 12-0.

The odds say BYU screws up somewhere—it's hard to be perfect—and of course our ranking of BYU is way out of line with everyone else, so a 10-2 season is probably a better goal than 12-0. If perfection is your goal you can only meet it or be disappointed, but 10-2 gives them some upside.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #9 USC Trojans

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

USC Trojans  (Pac-12 #3; South #2)

#9	2013 Results	AP #19 USA #19	Strength:#19  Success:#18  Overall:#19
		Record: 10-4	Bowl: beat Fresno State 45-20 (Las Vegas Bowl)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #15 | USA #15 | Lindy's #15 | Athlon #14 | Steele #11
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 96%   Playoff odds: 1%

USC might be one of the nation's best teams, but reeling yet from scholarship reductions, will they have the consistency to have a great season?

Offense 6 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #60 (raw) #41 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #10 (adjusted)

Watch out: Steve Sarkisian want to run 90 plays a game, and if he gets even halfway there from last year's 66, the offense is going to be a lot more explosive.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #74 (raw) #76 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #67
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #32 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #81

Cody Kessler (2,968 yards, 20 TDs, 7 int) was an efficient but not terribly productive quarterback last year for USC. His efficiency suggests that pushing the pace will be a good thing. Leading receiver Nelson Agholor (918 yards, 6 TDs) is back while #2 Marqise Lee (791) jumps to the NFL after an injury-plagued season. Three of the next four (all 200 yards +) are back, too. The offensive line allowed 34 sacks last year and that will be a bigger problem with more reps, but production should be up significantly, too.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #64 (raw) #37 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #11 (adj.)

Five Trojans rushed for over 200 yards last year and three of them are back, led by #1 Javorius Allen (785 yards) and #2 Tre Madden (703). The offensive line has three starters back, senior Aundrey Walker, junior Max Tuerk, and soph Chad Wheeler. Just like the passing game, we would have predicted a good-sized jump even without the extra tempo, but the increase in offensive plays makes it a huge leap.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #14    Pass Defense  per-game: #3   Per-attempt: #4
Defense 7 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #17 (raw) #6 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #20	'13 picks: #55
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #26 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #28	'14 picks: #49

The Trojan defensive line loses George Uko (5 sacks) but have Leonard Williams (6 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss) back. At linebacker they lose Devon Kennard (9 sacks) from last year and projected starter Jabari Ruffin tore his ACL over the summer. The secondary loses Dion Bailey (6 interceptions) but the other three starters return. All in all the defense should be roughly as talented as last year's model, but given the huge increase in tempo by the offense, opponents are going to have many more plays and drives; our scoring defense projection falls from the top ten to borderline top 25.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Andre Heidari (15 of 22 FG) and punter Kris Albarado (37.1 average) are both back.
• Return Game:  Nelson Agholor will again be the team's main return man; thanks to 2 touchdown returns he actually averaged more on punt returns (19.1) than on kickoffs (17.5).
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see a big difference here.
• Injury correction:  For the most part USC had an average amount of injuries last year, with a bit more on defense than normal.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #25          2013 Recruiting Rank: #19
Steve Sarkisian's first recruiting class doesn't suffer much transition-year drawdown, ranking near the top of the Pac-12. It's a fairly small class—scholarship reductions are still in effect—but the quality is very high at the top, with two 5-star defensive backs: Adoree Jackson (Gardena, CA) who may return kickoffs as well, and John "JuJu" Smith (Long Beach). Sarkisian slowly but surely built the Washington program back, from an 0-12 year before he got there to 9-4 last year.

2013 Recap 
Too Much Drama: Lane Kiffin began the year on the hot seat and didn't even get halfway through the season without getting fired. The 30-13 Hawaii game was just okay, not great, and the 10-7 home loss to Washington State was the beginning of the end. The Trojans beat Boston College 35-7 and survived Chuckie Keeton's Utah State, 17-14. But when Arizona State hung 62 points on USC, mostly in a 2nd half flurry that got Kiffin the axe in the airport parking lot after the game. Ed Orgeron took over and led USC to a win over Arizona (38-31) and a loss to Notre Dame (14-10), and then five straight wins including a big upset over Stanford. They lost to UCLA 35-14 at home, however, to finish 9-4, and Orgeron quit after being passed over as next year's head coach. USC trounced Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl, 45-20 for another 10-win season.

Last year's prediction: Like everyone else we overrated the Trojans in 2012 but we got 2013 right on the nose. We ranked USC #20, one spot below where they finished in both polls (and in our Strength and Overall power ratings). We projected a 9-4 record and got that right, too. The game-by-game picks weren't quite as accurate. We obviously didn't predict the upset loss to Washington State, and we thought they'd lose to Oregon State and beat UCLA (both wrong). But we did have them beating Stanford, and overall we got 10 of 13 games correct. We didn't issue a prediction on Lane Kiffin's fate.

2014 Outlook

USC 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	84%	W
9/6	Sat	@	*Stanford	37%	L
9/13	Sat	@	Boston College	85%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	75%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	68%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Arizona	60%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	94%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Utah	53%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Washington State	68%	W
11/13	Thu	vs.	*California	88%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*UCLA	18%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	74%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 96%

USC opens the season hosting the team they just beat 45-20 in their bowl game last year. Fresno State loses QB Derek Carr while the Trojans have improved, so the bowl game score, which was a little unrepresentative last year, is probably a good starting point for this year's contest. But then the Trojans travel to Stanford and that's a very important, and probably close, game. The problem for USC is that they have some good players out for repairs early in the season such as Lamar Dawson and Josh Shaw. We give the Cardinal the edge due to playing at home but it's anyone's for the taking.

Southern Cal might follow that with 8 straight wins—but that's easier said than done. Things get harder from Boston College to Oregon State to Arizona State (home) to Arizona (road); then Colorado is essentially a freebie while Utah on the road is very much a tossup. Washington State won't be easy but USC should get their revenge, while California probably isn't ready to compete.

Then comes the biggest game on USC's schedule. There's a chance both teams could be undefeated at this point (unlikely, not impossible) but with the game at UCLA the Bruins probably win it again. USC ought to beat Notre Dame in L.A., which gives them a 9-3 or 10-2 record depending on the Utah result. The cumulative projection more accurately takes into account the odds of each game and expects an 8-4 record.

As we noted, it would only take a win over Stanford, and handling Utah, to be undefeated at UCLA, and an upset win there puts USC in the driver's seat for the College Football Playoff prior to the Pac-12 championship game. But we give USC only about a 1% chance of getting there. It would take a lot of consistency throughout the season to make such a run, and USC is still being hurt by the scholarship reductions. That means despite being one of the nation's best teams their performances will still likely be erratic, and the odds of a fantastic season are probably appropriately low.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #10 Mississippi Rebels

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Mississippi Rebels  (SEC #4; West #3)

#10	2013 Results	AP #33 USA #32	Strength:#29  Success:#24  Overall:#26
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: beat Georgia Tech 25-17
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #18 | USA #19 | Lindy's #18 | Athlon #18 | Steele #13
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 98%   Playoff odds: 1%

We tried putting Mississippi near the top ten last year and they didn't stick; let's see what happens this time if they don't have so many injuries.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #58 (raw) #49 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #37 (adjusted)

The offense has many of its key players back and should be a bit better in 2014. No major surprises are in store unless 300-lb QB Jeremy Liggins somehow ends up starting.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #24 (raw) #28 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #47
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #23 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #49

Quarterback Bo Wallace (3,346 yards, 18 TDs, 10 int) is back for his senior year; top receiver Donte Moncrief (938 yards, 6 TDs) is gone along with #3 Ja-Mes Logan (583 yards) but 4 of the top 6 return including #2 Laquon Treadwell (608). The passing game might edge its way into the top 25 in production.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #43 (raw) #34 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #34 (adj.)

Five Ole Miss players rushed for over 300 yards and three of them are back: I'Tavius Mathers (563 yards), Jaylen Walton (539) and QB Wallace (355). The offensive line returns two starters from last year, Justin Bell and Laremy Tunsil, and one from 2012, senior Aaron Morris who was out with an ACL injury last year. They also have transfer Fahn Cooper who started full-time at Bowling Green in '12. We see the ground game being just as strong this year.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #18    Pass Defense  per-game: #45   Per-attempt: #19
Defense 9 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #38 (raw) #20 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #95	'13 picks: #33
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #3 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #65	'14 picks: #20

Mississippi's D has two key players back from injury who should put up better numbers this year. Defensive end CJ Johnson had 6.5 sacks in 2012 but none last year, while linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche had 10 tackles for loss in '12 and just 2 last year. In all the front seven (4-3) returns five starters, three to the D-Line and two at linebacker including top tackler Sederius Bryant (9.5 tackles for loss). The secondary returns all four starters including Cody Prewitt (6 interceptions), though they recently lost backups Chief Brown (Achilles') and Carlos Davis (ACL). Overall 7 of the top 8 tacklers are back, the pass rush should get a major upgrade, and the defense could be one of the nation's very best.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Ole Miss loses both kicker Andrew Ritter (16 of 24 FG) and punter Tyler Campbell (44.4 average).
• Return Game:  RB Jeff Scott averaged 12.7 yards per punt return and had one touchdown. Scott is not back but RB Jaylen Walton is; he averaged 20.6 yards per kickoff return last year and had a touchdown return in 2012.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see a lot of difference in any area here.
• Injury correction:  Ole Miss had a lot of injuries on both offense and defense last year that kept them from realizing their potential, so naturally more of that potential will be on display this year—assuming the injuries calm to a normal amount.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #18          2013 Recruiting Rank: #10
Like most SEC teams, Ole Miss recruits in the top 25 regularly and this year is no exception. Amazingly, they rank only 10th out of 14 teams in the conference. And people wonder how the SEC is so good? Hugh Freeze begins his third year here hoping for a breakthrough season after going 7-6 and 8-5 in his first two years. He hopes to avoid the fate of his predecessor, Houston Nutt, who had two good seasons but slipped to 4-8 and 2-10 over the next two years. These recruiting classes will help prevent that, you would think.

2013 Recap 
Mississippi started the season with a good win at Vanderbilt, 39-24 and after belting Texas 44-23 they were 3-0 and ready to face Alabama. It didn't go well, especially on offense as they lost 25-0. They also lost the next two weeks against Auburn and Texas A&M and were just 3-3. But an upset win over LSU (27-24) and three easy opponents (Idaho, Arkansas, and Troy) came just in time. They fell to Missouri 24-10 and lost in overtime at rival Mississippi State (17-10) to finish 7-5. But they beat Georgia Tech 25-17 in Music City Bowl to end on a positive note.

Last year's prediction: We picked Ole Miss to improve a lot from 2012's Strength ranking of #27, all the way up to #11. Instead they finished #29. What happened? Injuries explain a lot of it, as the Rebels were slammed on both sides of the ball. We projected an 8-4 record, and straight up we favored them in 9 games. We thought they'd lose to Texas but beat Auburn, and had them beating Missouri and Miss. State. If they'd had a normal amount of injuries would they have been #11? Probably not but they could have won that overtime game against the Bulldogs and our 8-4 pick would have been correct.

2014 Outlook

Mississippi 2014 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Boise State	78%	W
9/6	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	87%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	UL-Lafayette	91%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Memphis	92%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	31%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	55%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	89%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*LSU	43%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	46%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	Presbyterian	100%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Arkansas	74%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	68%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 98%

This year the cumulative estimate for wins for Ole Miss is right between 8 and 9, and game-by-game we call for a 9-3 record with a couple of games very close: Texas A&M on the road and Auburn at home. The only game where the Rebels are a clear underdog is Alabama.

The first four games actually got a bit easier as the month of September progresses. Mississippi hosts Boise State, and while the Broncos should be good they shouldn't win. The Rebels travel to Vanderbilt again, and they should win again. Louisiana-Lafayette and Memphis aren't bad teams by any means but the Rebels ought to beat both of them.

But Mississippi is still not at Alabama's level, and not close enough to be favored at home. Going 4-0 will tell us nothing about the Rebels, but this game will. And if they lose, the next game (Texas A&M) will really tell us whether Ole Miss is going to be as good as we think this year.

Tennessee should be a home win, then another tough 1-2 punch hits in the form of LSU and Auburn; with luck they can split those games. After that they get a freebie (Presbyterian). They end with Arkansas and Mississippi State (this time at home) and though both teams are improved, Ole Miss should be improved more and win both.

Last year we made almost the exact same prediction for Mississippi—moving from below the top 25 to nearly the top ten. It didn't happen. As noted above, a lot of that was due to injuries. So if they're as plagued by injuries in 2014 as they were in 2013, it could be another season of treading water. But by definition, we assume Ole Miss has the average amount of injuries. That means a substantial reduction from last year's carnage.

And if they can beat Texas A&M, LSU, and Auburn—all set to be close games—Mississippi could be 11-1. We give the Rebels just over a 1% chance of being in the College Football Playoff, too. They might have to beat Alabama to do that, but if the defense is as good as we think, they can hang with anyone.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #11 Stanford Cardinal

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Stanford Cardinal  (Pac-12 #4; North #2)

#11	2013 Results	AP #11 USA #10	Strength:#5  Success:#5  Overall:#6
		Record: 11-3	Bowl: Lost to Michigan St. 24-20 (Rose)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #11 | USA #11 | Lindy's #13 | Athlon #12 | Steele #12
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 92%   Playoff odds: <1%

This year we rank Stanford right in line with everybody else—but it doesn't stop us from yet again predicting an off-year record-wise.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #43 (raw) #21 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #35 (adjusted)

A rebuilt offensive line and the loss of Tyler Gaffney has us projecting a much weaker running game. Is this the year they turn Barry Sanders Jr loose?

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #95 (raw) #82 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #5
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #45 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #15

Kevin Hogan (2,630 yards, 20 TDs, 10 int) probably didn't have the breakthrough year some expected of him—his completion rate fell from 72% to 61%—but he still had a decent sophomore year rather than a "slump." This time around he's got his top five receivers back led by Ty Montgomery (958 yards, 10 TDs) and Devon Cajuste (642). The offensive line loses four starters and won't protect like they did last year (just 16 sacks against sack-happy defenses) but it should still be good. Last year we didn't have high hopes for Hogan as he lost all his receivers, but this year we see a good increase in production.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #23 (raw) #18 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #70 (adj.)

Tyler Gaffney (1,709 yards, 21 TDs) somehow became Stanford's offense last year, to the point where they probably depended on him too much. Now he's gone and they'll see how that works out for them. QB Hogan was the #2 gainer with 355 net, and WR Montgomery is the next one returning (#4 w/159). The next feature back? Either Barry Sanders (5 carries for 42 yards last year) or maybe Remound Wright (102 yds). The offensive line returns just one starter—Andrus Peat—as they lose two NFL draft picks and two other talented starters. We'd love to see Sanders explode for thousands of yards but given his paltry opportunities last year (why does it already seem like he's been here forever?) it looks like a running-back-by-committee paradigm where no one can quite get on track behind the new O-Line.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #1    Pass Defense  per-game: #37   Per-attempt: #11
Defense 7 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #11 (raw) #1 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #3	'13 picks: #74
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #2 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #17	'14 picks: #91

Last year we predicted that Stanford would overake Alabama as the #1 adjusted scoring defense and they did in our All-Division Strength power rating. They also had the #1 rushing defense and were #3 in adjusted sacks (44). Two of three starters return to the defensive line this year including Henry Anderson who had 5.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in 2012 but was hurt part of last year (just 3 sacks). Josh Mauro (8.5 tackles for loss) is gone, however. Two starting linebackers return including AJ Tarpley but #1 tackler Shayne Skov (109 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss) is gone along with Trent Murphy (15 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss). Needless to say, we see the pass rush weakening significantly. The secondary returns three starters but they still lose the majority of their pass breakups and we see interceptions dropping a bit even from last year's 13. Overall despite returning 7 starters we think the defense will fall from the #1 spot, allowing about 2 1/2 more points per game than last year.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Jordan Williamson (18 of 22 FG) is back along with punter Ben Rhyne (42.9 average). Both are seniors.
• Return Game:  Barry Sanders did see action on special teams, returning 7 punts for 71 yards (10.1 average). Ty Montgomery was great as kickoff returner, scoring two touchdowns for a 30.3 yard average.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see too big of a change here.
• Injury correction:  The offense had fewer injuries than normal last year and that docks them slightly going forward.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #27          2013 Recruiting Rank: #77
David Shaw's 4th class is one of the better classes in the Pac-12, and includes consensus 5-star defensive lineman Solomon Thomas from Coppell, Texas. Last year's class ranked low because is was very small (12 recruits).

2013 Recap 
Stanford raced out to a 4-0 start, then escaped Washington 31-28. Some were saying they were the best team in the country...then they got upset by Utah 27-21. They came back to beat UCLA, Oregon State, and then dominated Oregon for most of the game, winning 26-20. Again, the talk returned—best team in the country? They proptly lost to USC 20-17. They crushed Cal and beat Notre Dame and whipped Arizona State 38-14 for the Pac-12 title; many suggested that if there were a 4-team playoff, Stanford should be in it despite 2 losses. Naturally, they lost in the Rose Bowl to Michigan State 24-20.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Stanford only #19, and projected a 7-5 record. What did we get wrong? Basically, our dim outlook of the offense was much too dim. The scoring offense got worse, but not nearly as much as we suspected it might. We did get one prediction right, probably our best of the year, when our data suggested Stanford's scoring defense would improve from #4 to #1, and it happened.

2014 Outlook

Stanford 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	UC Davis	100%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	*USC	57%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Army	99%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Washington	48%	L
10/4	Sat	@	Notre Dame	57%	W
10/10	Fri	vs.	*Washington State	81%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Arizona State	50%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	73%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Oregon	21%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Utah	68%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*California	77%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*UCLA	17%	L
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 92%

It looks like another year where we're lowballing Stanford, with a cumulative projection that sits between 7 and 8 wins. The game-by-game picks are a little more generous, with only 2 clear losses and two more tossups, suggesting anywhere from 8 to 10 wins.

UC Davis is a gimme opener followed by a tough home opponent in USC. Army is practically another gimme. Then the Cardinal face Washington and Notre Dame both on the road; they should split these games but nothing is guaranteed; Stanford could be 5-0 at this point or easily 2-3.

After Washington State they visit Arizona State and that's completely up in the air. Oregon State should be a win but Oregon is probably a loss. Utah and Cal, wins; UCLA, loss.

Add those games up and you come out anywhere from 6-6 to 10-2, but Stanford showed how random they can be last year by losing to 5-7 Utah. Revenge may be this year's theme; we think there's a good chance Stanford will beat the teams that beat them in their last meeting (Utah, USC) and lose to the good teams they beat last year (Washington, ASU, Oregon, UCLA) and finish 8-4. Note that all four of those losses are on the road. If they lose a fifth it will be Notre Dame since it fits that pattern.

With their tough schedule their odds of getting to the College Football Playoff are less than 1%. We have underestimated the Cardinal before so maybe treat this as a worst-case scenario, but it's not like we're rating them low this year; they just have a lot of tough road games, and every team has an off-year now and then.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #12 Oklahoma Sooners

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Oklahoma Sooners  (Big Twelve #2)

#12	2013 Results	AP #6 USA #6	Strength:#18  Success:#8  Overall:#16
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: beat Alabama 45-31 (Sugar)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #4 | USA #3 | Lindy's #3 | Athlon #4 | Steele #5
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.7%   Playoff odds: 28%

A lot still depends on current developments at Oklahoma. The Sooners couldn't get Dorial Green-Beckham eligible for the season, but they're working on Baker Mayfield and Frank Shannon as we speak.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #40 (raw) #25 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #31 (adjusted)

Spotty quarterback play (other than in the bowl game) and the loss of their top running backs and receiver could cause the offense to dip, but not much.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #94 (raw) #77 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #26
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #83 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #24

Who would have thought that Blake Bell (1,648 yards, 12 TDs, 5 int) would throw for more yards than Trevor Knight (819 yards, 9:5) ? Or that Knight would rush for more yardage? In the topsy-turvy world that was Sooner quarterbacking last year, Knight started early on but Bell took over for most of the season. Knight came back from injury and finished strong, cementing his status at #1 and Bell moved to tight end. The best QB of all of them might be transfer Baker Mayfield (2,315 yards, 12:9 at Texas Tech last year) but he has to sit a year unless his lawyers can overturn that. At receiver three of the top five depart including Jalen Saunders (729 yards, 8 TDs) while #2 Sterling Shepard (603) is back. Last year's solid protection (15 sacks) should remain. After his Sugar Bowl performance (32 of 44, 348 yards, 4 TDs) everyone is expecting great things from Knight; we're still skeptical since over 250 of his bowl yards were to receivers no longer here.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #19 (raw) #23 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #39 (adj.)

The Sooners lose three of their top six rushers including #1 Brennan Clay (957 yards) and #2 Damien Williams (553). QB Knight (445) is the top returnee and QB Bell (255) the next, so at running back they'll turn to Keith Ford (#6, 134 yards). The offensive line is in good shape with three senior starters back, Adam Shead, Daryl Williams, and Tyrus Thompson, and 2011 starter Tyler Evans is back and finally healthy. Half-time starter Nila Kasitati returns as well. The Sooners lose a lot of production from the running back position but the QBs will be running a lot.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #47    Pass Defense  per-game: #8   Per-attempt: #30
Defense 8.5 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #25 (raw) #17 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #16	'13 picks: #34
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #9 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #6	'14 picks: #29

Oklahoma's 3-man defensive line should be in good shape with Charles Tapper (5.5 sacks) returning, and the pass rush could be top ten strength. At linebacker Dominique Alexander is back with Eric Striker (6.5 sacks) but the big question is whether top tackler Frank Shannon will play at all. Shannon was suspended by the university for a year but has been granted a stay while it plays out in court. We count him as being "half available" if there is no closure before the season starts, and assume that no matter what he won't play in the first half of the season. The secondary has three starters back including Zach Sanchez (13 pass breakups). Overall the defense looks good, and whether or not we consider it to be top-ten-quality depends on Shannon's status.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Michael Hunnicutt (24 of 27 FG last year) and punter Jed Barnett (41.7 average) are both back for their senior years.
• Return Game:  The Sooners will miss Jalen Saunders (15.4 average, 2 touchdowns) on punts and Roy Finch (25.6 average) on kickoff returns.
• Turnovers projection:  Oklahoma had a +4 fumble recovery margin despite coughing up the ball 4 times more than their opponents; that was lucky, and won't last.
• Injury correction:  The Sooners had slightly worse than average luck with injuries on both offense and defense last year, a (small) boon going forward ratingwise.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #12          2013 Recruiting Rank: #15
Bob Stoops has had a number of off-field issues to deal with and his decisions have been questioned by some. Allowing Dorial Green-Beckham to transfer in from Missouri—where he was in trouble several times and accused of assault—was controversial. The Frank Shannon affair raises questions about the relationship between the athletic department and the office of the president, whose statement made it seem they were powerless to enforce their Title IX investigation decision (it was due to Shannon's legal appeal, not anything Stoops did, so the President's language was interesting). Where Stoops is certainly right is in trying to get Baker Mayfield eligible. Mayfield provided services to Texas Tech that are normally compensated with free college costs, yet he got none of that; still, he's being forced to sit out a year because Kliff Kingsbury doesn't want to face Mayfield as an opponent. It's a good question whether Stoops might do the same thing if the situation was reversed, but he's clearly in the right here. This year's recruiting class is another solid one, probably the best in the Big Twelve. Its standout star, Joe Mixon, has been the source of more problems for Stoops as he was accused of assault and suspended for the year.

2013 Recap 
Oklahoma often starts the year with an ugly win but they blanked UL-Lafayette 34-0. The next game was the ugly win as they topped West Virginia 16-7. Three wins later and they were 5-0 and huge favorites over Texas, and that one was an ugly loss, 36-20. Even uglier was Baylor a few games later, 41-12, and at 7-2 it looked like they'd just go throught the motions for the rest of the year. Instead they upset Oklahoma State 33-24 in the final, and then thrashed Alabama 45-31 in the Sugar Bowl for their most satisfying end-of-season performance in a long time.

Last year's prediction: We picked Oklahoma to be #18, and though they finished higher in the polls that's where they averaged out for the season in Strength. They had a lot more success than that, though, and certainly more than the 8-4 we picked for their record. Game by game we favored Oklahoma in nine games, with losses to Notre Dame (nope), Texas (yep), and Oklahoma State (no). We predicted a big fall in passing production from #6 to #31—and they fell all the way to #77. But the defense bucked our prediction and improved instead of weakening.

2014 Outlook

Oklahoma 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	99%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Tulsa	92%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Tennessee	88%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*West Virginia	74%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*TCU	53%	W
10/11	Sat	N	*Texas	62%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	82%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Iowa State	85%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	48%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	73%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	96%	W
12/6	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	82%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.7%

Oklahoma has a chance in every game this year and we have them the favorite in 11 of 12. Baylor is a close loss, and TCU is nearly a tossup that could change if Frank Shannon is ruled out, but the rest we consider wins. The cumulative estimate figures in an upset or two and ends up with 9 wins as the expected value, though 10-2 is an equally likely occurrence.

The Sooners should win their first two games easily, then they host Tennessee which shouldnt be too daunting (but for some reason seems to be the kind of game Oklahoma gets upset in). They travel to West Virginia and should come away the winner there, too. After TCU, they face Texas and should be the favorites in a close game.

At the mid-point of the season we assume that there's a 50% chance each that they get back Frank Shannon and that Baker Mayfield becomes eligible; this is arbitrary but it helps their odds in their later contests. Following Kansas State and Iowa State they host Baylor. The Bears might not be quite as good as last year while Oklahoma may be better. Has the gap closed enough from 41-12 that Oklahoma can win it at home? Maybe, maybe not.

With three more wins Oklahoma could end up 10-2 or 11-1, with about a 3% chance of running the table. They don't need to go 12-0 to make the College Football Playoff and we give them a 28% chance of making it. It's true they will be somewhat penalized for not playing a conference championship game but they do play 9 conference games and it depends more on how many 0- and 1-loss teams there are to compete with. Having no championship game to play both hurts and helps the Big Twelve. The bottom line is that the Sooners are Baylor's chief competitor for winning the Big Twelve, and that means their playoff odds are high.

Oklahoma's review could change quite a bit if the Mayfield and Shannon issues are resolved, and we'll update further if needed prior to the first kickoff on August 27.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #13 LSU Tigers

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

LSU Tigers  (SEC #6; West #4)

#13	2013 Results	AP #14 USA #14	Strength:#16  Success:#13  Overall:#15
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: beat Iowa 21-14 (Outback)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #13 | USA #13 | Lindy's #11 | Athlon #19 | Steele #14
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 97%   Playoff odds: 1%

LSU has some big losses on offense and defense, but they have some of the country's top recruits ready to plug the holes.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #24 (raw) #16 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #52 (adjusted)

After a year of run/pass balance, LSU may depend heavily on a freshman phenom running back to drive their offense.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #47 (raw) #41 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #77
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #110 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #57

Zach Mettenberger (3,082 yards, 22 TDs, 8 int) finally did live up to the hype in his 2nd year as starting quarterback, but now he leaves a void that LSU will try to fill with either true freshman Brandon Harris or Anthony Jennings (181 yards, 1 TD, 1 int) who started late last year with Mettenberger hurt; Les Miles said that both will play in the opener. Just as big of a problem will be replacing top receivers Jarvis Landry (1,193 yards, 10 TDs) and Odell Beckham (1,152 yards, 8 TDs), who combined for over 70% of the team's receiving yards; sophomore Travin Dural (7 catches, 145 yards) is the leading returnee. The offensive line should improve from last year's poor protection (25 sacks in 326 attempts) but we see the team going back to leaning on the run again.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #30 (raw) #28 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #36 (adj.)

Jeremy Hill (1,401 yards, 16 TDs) is gone. Two of the next three rushers return, led by Terrence Magee (626 yards), but all the hype is going to freshman Leonard Fournette, the consensus top running back recruit in the country. The offensive line returns four starters—Elliot Porter, La'el Collins, Vadal Alexander, and Jerald Hawkins—and should therefore be stronger, but without a decent passing game opponents may stack against the run. If Fournette proves as good as advertised the RB stable could increase production over last year, but we don't count on an Adrian Peterson freshman season from him.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #17    Pass Defense  per-game: #27   Per-attempt: #18
Defense 7 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #23 (raw) #26 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #36	'13 picks: #69
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #19 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #24	'14 picks: #38

LSU returns two starters to the front four, but the defensive line had some bad luck as reserve Jordan Allen transferred to Arizona; another reserve, Trey Lealaimatafao punched some glass in the weight room and may be out the year. At linebacker top tackler Lamin Barrow is gone but DJ Welter and Kwon Alexander return. The secondary looks stronger and LSU should exceed last year's 11 picks easily; Jalen Mills is back and seems to have avoided game suspension for allegedly punching a woman, with "extra conditioning" as his punishment. The defense appears to be a bit better than last year.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Colby Delahoussaye (13 of 14 FG) and punter Jamie Keehn (41.0 average) are back.
• Return Game:  Last year's #2 receiver Odell Beckham will also be missed as a return man, where he averaged 26.4 yards per kickoff and 8.9 on punts.
• Turnovers projection:  LSU can probably count on a little better luck with fumble recoveries but the QB interception totals might be in for a big jump from Metterberger's 8. The defense should increase their total, too, and their turnover composite is mostly unchanged from last year.
• Injury correction:  LSU had pretty much an average amount of injuries last year on both offense and defense.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #4          2013 Recruiting Rank: #8
When you recruit like Les Miles, you can patch over many of your team's shortcomings with true freshmen. Case in point: LSU needs a running back? How about 5-star Leonard Fournette, whom Miles compared to Michael Jordan. LSU needs to replace star receivers? How about 5-star Malachi Dupre, who, like Fournette, is from New Orleans. Need a quarterback? Brandon Harris comes in from Bossier City, LA. For the defense, there are 5-stars Clifton Jarrett from Illinois and Jamal Adams from Carrollton, TX. As long as he recruits like this, no matter what his critics say Les Miles is going to win a lot of football games.

2013 Recap 
LSU started 4-0, including a win over Auburn which seemed too tough at the time (35-21) but in retrospect was their biggest win of the year. Immediately after, though, they lost to Georgia 44-41, and later fell to Ole Miss (27-24) and Alabama (38-17). They throttled Texas A&M 34-10 and to finish 9-3, then won an uninspired victory over Iowa, 21-14, in the Outback Bowl.

Last year's prediction: We ranked LSU #18, which if you look at our Strength ranking (#16) and poll finish (#14) was just about right. But with their schedule in the SEC that translated to an expected 7-5 record, which was too harsh. We got every game right except TCU and Texas A&M, though, giving them a 49% chance to beat the Horned Frogs.

2014 Outlook

LSU 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Wisconsin	64%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Sam Houston St.	98%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	UL-Monroe	99%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	67%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	New Mexico State	99%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Auburn	29%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Florida	49%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	90%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	57%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	30%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Arkansas	73%	W
11/27	Thu	@	*Texas A&M	53%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 97%

A great game kicks off LSU's season as they take on Wisconsin in Houston. We call it a practical home game for the Tigers and favor them to win.

The next two are jokes against Sam Houston State and UL-Monroe, with New Mexico State thrown in later for a real laugher. In between the SEC season begins against Mississippi State, which is another challenge on the level of the Badgers. At this point note that LSU has not played a road game.

That changes when they head to Auburn and it's one reason we're pretty sure they'll take their first loss there. The go to Florida a week later and they'll need to have recovered fully if they want to win this tossup game.

Then it's back home for Kentucky (win), Mississippi (tough, but probable win), and Alabama (still looks like a loss). The end on the road at Arkansas and Texas A&M, with the latter almost being another pick'em.

Adding up the picks that's 8 to 10 wins depending on Florida and Texas A&M, with the cumulative odds adding up to an 8-4 season. LSU always has a chance to make some noise in the national championship department, and we give them around a 1% chance to make the College Football Playoff. There are too many higher-ranked teams in their way, so unless their freshman come through for them big time they're probably not in it.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #14 South Carolina Gamecocks

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

South Carolina Gamecocks  (SEC #5; East #2)

#14	2013 Results	AP #4 USA #4	Strength:#14  Success:#4  Overall:#8
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: beat Wisconsin 34-24 (Capital One)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #9 | USA #9 | Lindy's #9 | Athlon #9 | Steele #10
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99%   Playoff odds: 1%

After three straight 11-2 seasons is South Carolina ready to fall, or rise to the top?

Offense 8 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #37 (raw) #19 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #20 (adjusted)

The Gamecocks lose quarterback Connor Shaw but they have an adequate replacement and RB Mike Davis should have a great year.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #42 (raw) #35 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #40
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #37 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #26

Replacing Connor Shaw (2,447 yards, 24 TDs, 1 int) is going to be a tough job, but senior Dylan Thomas (783 yards, 4:3) is experienced and knows the offense. Top receiver Bruce Ellington (775 yards, 8 TDs) is gone but 7 others who topped 100 yards are back led by Damiere Byrd (575 yards). The offensive line should be in great shape after allowing 23 sacks last year. Thomas won't replicate Shaw's insane 24:1 ratio but he should come close to matching last year's team production.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #32 (raw) #27 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #18 (adj.)

Mike Davis (1,183 yards, 11 TDs) was one of the nation's top running backs when he was healthy, and big things are expected from him in 2014. Three other runners—all back this season—topped 200 yards, as did QB Connor Shaw (558 yards) who departs. The offensive line returns three full-time starters, seniors Corey Robinson and Al Cann and junior Brandon Shell. Sophomores Cody Waldrop and Clayton Stadnik each started half-time. Mike Matulis, part-time starter from 2012, is also back but his injuries have made him doubtful for the year. This is a very strong offensive line and with Davis hopefully healthy all year the ground game should rank in the top 25, even as production from the QB spot slips.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #30    Pass Defense  per-game: #17   Per-attempt: #33
Defense 6 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #12 (raw) #10 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #51	'13 picks: #13
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #15 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #75	'14 picks: #46

The big loss on South Carolina's defense is of course Jadeveon Clowney (8.5 tackles for loss) who actually had a disappointing final year just because he wasn't a dominating force on every play; this was either due to saving himself for the NFL, or a sports hernia he suffered from during the season, depending on who you listen to. They also lose Kelcy Quarles (9.5 sacks) off the 4-3 defensive line, which will be weaker with only one starter returning. But both starting linebackers return including #1 tackler Skai Moore, and Sharrod Golightly is back at the Spur (LB/Safety) position. The secondary proper returns two more starters but they do lose #2 tackler Jimmy Legree. The defense won't lose much effectiveness in terms of points yielded, but the big plays—sacks and interceptions—will be fewer and further between.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Elliot Fry (15 of 18 FG) and punter Tyler Hull (3.8 average) are both back for their senior seasons.
• Return Game:  Pharoah Cooper is back after averaging 22.4 yards on kickoffs and 4.4 on punt returns.
• Turnovers projection:  Last year Connor Shaw had 1 interception in 284 attempts; Dylan Thomas had 3 in 89. You can see where we're going. It's only fair to add in Thomas' 2012 stats, so he's had a total of 5 in 216. No matter how you slice it, the team's going to have many more than 4 interceptions this season. We also expect the defense to have a lot fewer picks than last year's 18.
• Injury correction:  Both the offense and defense benefitting from few injuries last year, and that probably won't happen this season.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #34          2013 Recruiting Rank: #21
This year's recruiting class was already small before at least three players failed to qualify, leaving it as one of the weakest groups in the SEC. Of course, it still ranks as pretty damn good on a national level, but in the SEC you have to be in the top 25 to stay above water year-to-year. Steve Spurrier has been here 9 years now, almost as long as he was at Florida (12 years), remarkably. He's built a mediocre program into a big winner, with three consecutive 11-2 seasons.

2013 Recap 
South Carolina lost in the 2nd game of the season to Georgia, 41-30. At 5-1, they lost in double overtime to Tennessee, and it seemed like the season was going to be a disappointment. But then they beat previously undefeated Missouri in double overtime and won out, beating Clemson 31-17. An earlier win over Central Florida (28-25) ended up being very important as the Knights went 12-1. The Gamecocks beat Wisconsin 34-24 in the Capital One Bowl and SC finished #4 in the nation in the polls.

Last year's prediction: We ranked South Carolina #13 in the pre-season last year, predicting a 9-3 season. Game by game the only loss we projected was Georgia. It's unlikely anyone predicted SC's trajectory in losing to 5-7 Tennessee but still finishing in the top 5.

2014 Outlook

South Carolina 2014 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	*Texas A&M	75%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	91%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	49%	L
9/20	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	86%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	69%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Kentucky	80%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	Furman	99%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Auburn	27%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	88%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Florida	48%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	South Alabama	98%	W
11/29	Sat	@	Clemson	55%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

We only show one clear loss on South Carolina's schedule—the game at Auburn. There are two more games that a tossups: Georgia at home, and Florida on the road. Win both of those and they're 11-1; lose both and they are 9-3.

The rest of the schedule consists of games where we favor the Gamecocks, and usually by a lot. Texas A&M could be a close game but a home win. East Carolina is easier. Vanderbilt shouldn't be that big of a test this year, even on the road, and Missouri won't be easy but it shouldn't take two overtimes this year.

Kentucky isn't yet a challenge to the Gamecocks, and Furman won't ever be. Tennessee and South Alabama at home shouldn't be a challenge, but Clemson on the road is a big one, and is close to being another tossup.

But remember that somehow the #4 team in the country lost to 5-7 Tennessee and you realize anything can happen. The cumulative projection doesn't take any win for granted and settles on 9-3 as the most likely outcome—whether that means losing all the close games, or winning them and getting upset somewhere else. If they do win the close ones they could be going places, but we give them just over a 1% chance of making the College Football Playoff.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #15 Michigan State Spartans

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Michigan State Spartans  (Big Ten #1; East #1)

#15	2013 Results	AP #3 USA #3	Strength:#17  Success:#3  Overall:#9
		Record: 13-1	Bowl: beat Stanford 24-20 (Rose)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #8 | USA #8 | Lindy's #7 | Athlon #11 | Steele #15
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.6%   Playoff odds: 8%

With Braxon Miller gone for Ohio State the Spartans are the clear favorite in the Big Ten race, but a game with Oregon early might determine their chances for something more.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #63 (raw) #54 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #36 (adjusted)

Michigan State accomplished quite a bit last year with a very average offense; this year's model should be quite good.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #86 (raw) #90 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #28
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #65 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #38

Connor Cook (2,755 yards, 22 TDs, 6 int) did about as well as could be expected in his first year starting, but more will be asked of him as a junior. He loses the team's leader by receiving yards, Bernie Fowler (622 yards) but everyone else is back including Tony Lippett (613 yards, #1 in receptions) and Macgarrett Kings (513, #2 in receptions). The offensive line might not be as strong but they protected well last year (17 sacks). The passing game should rise to be about average.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #60 (raw) #53 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #41 (adj.)

The Spartans have Jeremy Langford (1,422 yards, 18 touchdowns) back along with the rest of the top four, so they're set in the backfield. The offensive line returns only two starters, junior Jack Allen and soph Jack Conklin. Travis Jackson started in 2011 and he's back, but reserve Zach Higgins was lost for the year and new starter Connor Kruse will miss some of the season. Still, the team's production should increase and Langford ought to have a fine senior season.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #4    Pass Defense  per-game: #11   Per-attempt: #3
Defense 5 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #3 (raw) #2 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #29	'13 picks: #27
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #4 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #29	'14 picks: #64

The Spartans' defense was lockdown across the board, stuffing the run and pass, keeping opponents off the scoreboard and throwing in a generous helping of big plays. Two starters return to the front four, Shilique Calhoun (7.5 sacks) and Marcus Rush (5 sacks) which should preserve their solid pass rush (32 sacks last year), though projected starter Damon Knox will probably miss a few early games. The Spartans lose two starting linebackers, however: #1 tackler Denicos Allen (5.5 sacks, 11 tackles for loss) is gone along with Max Bullough (8 tackles for loss). Two starters are gone from the secondary, too, the big loss being Thorpe award winner Darqueze Dennard (10 pass breakups). We don't see the team matching last year's 17 interceptions and as a whole the defense will be weaker. But that doesn't mean it won't remain one of the nation's top units.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Michael Geiger (15 of 16 FG) is back along with punter Mike Sadler (42.5 average).
• Return Game:  RJ Shelton (22.1 average on kickoffs) and Macgarrett Kings (10.3 ave on punts) are both back.
• Turnovers projection:  The Spartans should be a little luckier on fumbles, but we see a sizable decrease in interceptions by the defense.
• Injury correction:  MSU's defense benefitted from a lack of injuries last year, but we doubt it would have been that much different had they had the average amount.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #30          2013 Recruiting Rank: #55
See what a 13-1 year can do? Maybe it wasn't all due to the team's success last year, but certainly it might have nudged a few players who couldn't decide between the Spartans and someone else. The class ranks in the top half of the Big Ten and includes defensive lineman Malik McDowell from Southfield, Michigan. Mark Dantonio has had double-digit wins here in 3 of the last 4 season, with a detour at 7-6 last year.

2013 Recap 
Things got off to a slow start as they settled on a new quarterback. The Spartans beat woeful 1-11 Western Michigan just 26-13 and 2-10 South Florida 21-6. At the time losing to Notre Dame 17-13 looked like a good performance but they'd love to have that one back. They topped Iowa 26-14 which looks decent in retrospect, but beat Indiana and Purdue by 14 points each. They finally got on track vs. Illinois and slammed Michigan 29-6. Now 8-1, people were starting to take them seriously; they beat Nebraska, Northwestern, and Minnesota to finish 11-1 but few gave them a chance against Ohio State. They belted the Buckeyes 34-24, then an underdog once again, they beat Stanford in the Rose Bowl 24-20.

Last year's prediction: We only ranked the Spartans #37 and predicted an 8-4 season. When they were 7-1 everything was going exactly like our game-by-game picks and at that point they didn't look much better than #37. But they kept getting better each week and won the late games instead of losing 3 of them. On offense and defense, our only accurate picks were predicting the defense would remain in the top 5 and garner many more interceptions.

2014 Outlook

Michigan State 2014 schedule & forecast
8/29	Fri	vs.	Jacksonville St.	97%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Oregon	22%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	99%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Wyoming	98%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	84%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Purdue	96%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Indiana	45%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	70%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	62%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Maryland	51%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	91%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Penn State	79%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.6%

Michigan State opens with Jacksonville State and that game's not important. The one that follows is. Not for the Big Ten championship which it doesn't affect, but for the College Football Playoff hunt, which the Spartans could be in the thick of.

We favor Oregon to win quite handily at home, but Michigan State's defense has a good chance of keeping that game very close and if they win it, they have a head up above most of the Pac-12 with the CFB committee. Lose it and the Pac-12 is judged better than the Big Ten when decision time comes.

Eastern Michigan and Wyoming are gimmes before the Big Ten race starts, and we favor Michigan State in almost every game. The exceptions are: at Indiana, a very close loss; and at Maryland, a game that could go either way. They should beat Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan, Rutgers, Penn State—even Ohio State, which post-Braxton Miller has gone from a tossup to a likely win.

The cumulative projection takes into account all  the chances for upset and settles on 9 as the expected number of wins, and 9-3 is the single most likely outcome too. But straight up we have the Spartans around 10-2—maybe 11-1 if the Indiana game swings their way, or 9-3 if Maryland doesn't.

As the top team in the East we expect them to go to the Big Ten championship game and probably play Wisconsin; they'll be favored in a tight game. If they manage to go 13-0, or 12-1, or even 11-2 depending on how they get there, they have some chance of being in the top 4 and going to the College Football Playoff; as the favorite in a tight Big Ten race we put their odds at around 8%; those odds would take a big jump with a win at Oregon.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #16 Houston Cougars

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Houston Cougars  (American #1)

#16	2013 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#44  Success:#60  Overall:#46
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: lost to Vanderbilt 41-24 (Compass)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA #48 | Lindy's #56 | Athlon #69 | Steele #44
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 5%

You want surprise picks? We got surprise picks. How about Houston in the top 25? It's a pick no one else is remotely making—though technically, those 2 votes in the USA poll represent two coaches who think Houston is #25, or one who thinks the Cougars are #24.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #39 (raw) #42 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #9 (adjusted)

Houston's offense was hit so hard by injuries last year that it's amazing they finished with an above-average scoring offense. Our correction for these injuries elevates last year's offense to 17th best in the country, and from there they make the leap into the top ten.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #27 (raw) #27 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #94
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #8 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #108

John O'Korn (3,117 yards, 28 TDs, 10 int) had a stellar freshman year leading the Cougars and his sophomore year should be better. Five of his top six targets are back including #1 Deontay Greenberry (1,202 yards, 11 TDs) and Daniel Spencer (768 yards). Protection left a bit to be desired last year with 29 sacks; there were 518 attempts, but still, it's the only drawback to the passing game making the top ten.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #95 (raw) #91 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #80 (adj.)

Houston's five top rushers are back from last year led by Ryan Jackson (661 yards) and Kenneth Farrow (514), each of whom had 6 touchdowns. The offensive line was in decent shape until Zach Johnson tore his ACL at the end of spring practice; he will miss the year. They do have seniors Bryce Redman and Rowdy Harper back and get transfers Ben Dew (Hawaii) and Travis Cross (Oklahoma State), both of whom have starting experience there. Still, the line looks weaker and may limit improvement in the ground game.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #67    Pass Defense  per-game: #96   Per-attempt: #62
Defense 9 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #21 (raw) #48 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #57	'13 picks: #2
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #31 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #25	'14 picks: #1

With starter Trevor Harris (3.5 sacks) and backup Tyus Bowser (4.5 sacks) among those back on the defensive line, the Cougars—who return 28 of 31 sacks from '12—could have a top 25-level pass rush in 2014. They did lose former starter Eric Braswell, out with an ACL tear. At linebacker all three starters return; Derrick Matthews (116 tackles, 7 sacks) is back as well as #1 tackler Efrem Oliphant (134 tackles, 10 tackles for loss). Though they lose Zach McMillan (5 interceptions), Adrian McDonald (6 interceptions) and Trevon Stewart (109 tackles) are back in the secondary and Boise State transfer Lee Hightower is now eligible; they won't match last year's 25 picks as a team but should come close enough that they nab our #1 adjusted ranking (adjusts for how pick-prone opponents are). Overall the defense returns its top five tacklers and should take a solid step up.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter/kicker Richie Leone is gone; he averaged 43.2 yards per punt and made 11 of 17 field goals. Kyle Bullard took over as placekicker (6 of 6 FG) and he's back.
• Return Game:  Demarcus Ayers (27.6 yard average on kickoffs; 1 touchdown) is back but Damian Payne (4.3 average on punts) transferred to UTEP.
• Turnovers projection:  Houston's fumble margin (+10) was too good to be true last year and won't happen again; we also don't think they can match last year's 25 interceptions. All in all turnovers won't give nearly the boost this year that they did last season.
• Injury correction:  Injuries on offense hit Houston harder than any other team in the FBS last year, and it gives a big boost to their rating this year as explained under Offense. The defense  avoided injury for the most part.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #47          2013 Recruiting Rank: #53
Tony Levine brings in another good class for Houston, ranking in the top half of the American Athletic Conference. Levine's first year began as a disaster and only partially recovered at 5-7 (following 13-1). His 2nd year—last season—was a pretty big success at 8-5.

2013 Recap 
Houston jumped out to 5-0 against a pretty easy schedule but they did beat Rice 31-26. They lost a shootout to BYU 47-46, then beat Rutgers and USF before losing three games in a row to 12-1 UCF, 12-1 Louisville, and 9-4 Cincinnati by a combined 19 points. They blanked SMU 34-0 but in the Compass Bowl they were defeated by Vanderbilt 41-24.

Last year's prediction: Last year at this time we were as down on the Cougars as we are "up" on them now. We didn't foresee much of any improvement in the team, ranking them #95 and projecting a 4-8 record. The big thing was the defense—we saw no improvement happening, and it did. We actually managed to overestimate the passing game, which fell short due to all the injuries.

2014 Outlook

Houston 2014 schedule & forecast
8/29	Fri	vs.	UTSA	91%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Grambling State	100%	W
9/11	Thu	@	BYU	35%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	UNLV	97%	W
10/2	Thu	vs.	*UCF	79%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Memphis	80%	W
10/17	Fri	vs.	*Temple	97%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*South Florida	95%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	98%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Tulsa	97%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*SMU	96%	W
12/6	Sat	@	*Cincinnati	73%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 12%

Combine a team that we think is going to be very good with a schedule that's one of the easiest in the nation, and what do you have? A team that is expected to win lots and lots of games. We see one major challenge on Houston's schedule, and that's BYU, another team we rank higher than anyone else does. In fact, according to our rankings Houston at BYU is one of the top non-conference clashes of the year. We favor the Cougars (of BYU).

Other than that we don't see a likely loss on the schedule. Houston originally scheduled not one but two FCS teams, Grambling State and Tennessee Tech, and neither is any good even in the lower division (they were 1-10 and 5-7 respectively). [update] They cancelled Tennessee Tech and play UNLV instead. We don't see a lot of difference in outcome. They get Texas-San Antonio at home as well as Central Florida (whom we downgraded a lot for '14). Memphis may provide some resistance, too, but after that there are five near-gimmes in a row before Cincinnati, who is their toughest test other than BYU.

All of this adds up to an 11-1 season, with the cumulative projection split between 10 and 11 wins. On the top chart you can see that the "mode" or most common outcome is 11-1 but on the lower chart, 11 or more wins is slightly less than a 50% occurrence.

Our odds of Houston going undefeated are 12%, and we give them 5% odds of making the College Football Playoff. Normally a team with a schedule this weak would have near-zero odds, but if Houston is really a top 25 team then their wins will be convincing enough that they will appear to be for real, and if they beat BYU that will be another big plus (if BYU is a great team too). Still, note that an undefeated Houston makes the playoff only 40% of the time, where any Power Conference team that goes undefeated is guaranteed admission.

It's fair, too, to point out that our predictions for Houston have been lousy the last couple of years, and that the program has vacillated to extremes (10-4 to 5-7 to 13-1 to 5-7 to 8-5) and is hard to pin down. Last year's squad was plagued with injuries and reliant on turnovers; teams that volatile are a bad fit for an automated prediction system which is basically what we do. But, out-of-left-field predictions are a lot more fun than the polls which basically mimic each other. If we had made this kind of pick with Auburn last year we'd be called geniuses. Teams come out of left field all the time, and it will be interesting to watch what Houston does this year.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #19 Washington Huskies

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Washington Huskies  (Pac-12 #5; North #3)

#19	2013 Results	AP #25 USA #24	Strength:#7  Success:#27  Overall:#17
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: beat BYU 31-16 (Fight Hunger)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #25 | USA #25 | Lindy's #23 | Athlon #24 | Steele #28
		Record: 9-4	Bowl odds: 93%   Playoff odds: <1%

Washington begins a new era under Chris Petersen, and it should start pretty well.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #19 (raw) #15 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #17 (adjusted)

It might not look like the offense falls much by the rankings, but that's just a fluke; that area of the offensive ranking has wide spacing, and a few spots there is quite a bit of a drop.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #38 (raw) #33 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #89
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #66 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #44

Keith Price (2,966 yards, 21 TDs, 6 int) moves on and Cyler Miles (418 yards, 4:2) will take over—at least, in the 2nd game after serving a 1-game suspension for fighting on Super Bowl night. He'll be without #1 receiver Kevin Smith (765 yards) but Jaydon Mickens (688 yards) is back along with Kasen Williams (#4 w/421 last year, #1 w/878 in 2012). Still, those are the only two of the top six back. The offensive line should help Miles acclimate, however, as all five starters return and sacks allowed should drop precipitously from last year's 30. Despite Miles' hyped recruiting ratings we see the passing numbers dropping due to losing Price, Smith, and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #16 (raw) #14 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #16 (adj.)

Bishop Sankey (1,870 yards, 20 TDs) was one of the best running backs in college football last year, and he's gone. Washington had four players who topped 200 yards and all of them are back, including #2 Dwayne Washington (332) who might lead more of a committee approach this year. The offensive line should be one of the nation's best this year as all five starters return. Seniors Mike Criste, Colin Tanigawa, Ben Riva, and Micah Hatchie return with junior Dexter Charles and they could lead the running game to nearly match last year's total. Note that QB Miles had 200 yards—and an 8.7 average—in limited action last year, so if he plays the full year they'll get a lot of yardage from that position.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #38    Pass Defense  per-game: #13   Per-attempt: #8
Defense 7 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #33 (raw) #11 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #7	'13 picks: #42
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #7 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #2	'14 picks: #36

The Washington defensive line returns Hau'oli Kikaha (13 sacks) and Cory Littleton (5 sacks), and Andrew Hudson (6.5 sacks in 2012) is a backup; we see the team having one of the strongest pass rushes in the nation (41 sacks last year); they do lose Josh Shirley (6.5 sacks in 2012) who left the team. The secondary should be weaker, however, as they lose three starters. They do have Marcus Peters (5 interceptions) back, so while their pass defense won't be top ten quality it won't collapse and they should come close to last year's 16 picks. Overall the defense returns 7 of its top 9 tacklers and might even be better than last year (#33 raw but #11 when adjusted for score-happy Pac-12 schedule).

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter/kicker Travis Coons departs; he averaged 40.4 yards per punt and connected on 15 of 16 field goal attempts.
• Return Game:  John Ross (23.2 average on kickoff returns; one touchdown) is back along with punt fielder Marvin Hall (9.4 yards per attempt).
• Turnovers projection:  Keith Price threw just 6 picks in 352 attempts last year; Cyler Miles threw 2 in 61; Miles will probably throw a lot more than 6 this season.
• Injury correction:  The defense had very few injuries last year and if that catches up to normal this year it downgrades the unit slightly.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #42          2013 Recruiting Rank: #16
This year's recruiting class suffers from the coaching-transition-year blues; we'll have to see how Chris Peterson does next year. Of course, even though this class is only average for the Pac-12 it's better than almost any of his Boise State classes. Peterson has quite a reputation to live up to, perhaps more than any coach who has moved up to the "big time." Until last year's 8-5 Peterson had 7 years of double-digit wins including two undefeated seasons and three more with just 1 loss. Things didn't work out very well for the last Boise State coach—Dan Hawkins—who stepped up to a BCS program; Colorado still hasn't recovered. But it might have been Peterson who was responsible for Boise's success all along. It will be interesting to see what he can do here.

2013 Recap 
Washington beat Boise State (whose coach they would end up poaching) 38-6, getting revenge for the bowl loss at the end of the 2012 season. Illinois was more trouble than expected, 34-24, but they beat Idaho State 56-0 and Arizona 31-13. Their first test was Stanford and they hung with them all game before falling 31-28. Their 2nd test, Oregon, was a worse loss at 45-24 and Arizona State the worst, 53-24. They won 4 of the last 5 but didn't get the big wins (lost to UCLA 41-31) and were relegated to the Fight Hunger Bowl where they prevailed over BYU 31-16.

Last year's prediction: We picked Washington high at #12, and they actually exceeded that by finishing #7 in Strength—but they didn't win the big games and ended up #27 in Success and barely in the AP Top 25. But despite our lofty ranking we still projected only an 8-4 record for the Huskies, which they matched. We got one of the losses wrong—they fell to UCLA, not Oregon State—but all in all our call for a very improved team with a marginally improved record was right on target.

2014 Outlook

Washington 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Hawaii	94%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Eastern Washington	94%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Illinois	93%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Georgia State	99%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	52%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*California	71%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Oregon	17%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	61%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Colorado	81%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	25%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Arizona	53%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	67%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Washington State	61%	W
Straight up: 11-2  Cume: 9-4  Bowl eligible: 93%

Washington plays a 13-game schedule this year and under the best of circumstances we see them winning 11 of them. That gives them tossup games against Stanford and at Arizona. It also assumes they beat Arizona State and Oregon State at home, and win the Apple Cup at Washington State, three pretty big assumptions.

What we can probably safely assume is that Washington can beat Hawaii, Eastern Washington, Illinois, and Georgia State in their first four games. Once again their first test is Stanford. After that they should beat California, but then they travel to Oregon, a tall order to say the least.

After ASU they have Colorado on the road before hosting UCLA, another very tall order. The final three games are also tough as covered above; in all, the cumulative projection calls for a 9-4 season, so assume they'll lose one of the tossup games and be upset somewhere else.

Even if they get past Oregon and Stanford and win the North division they'll probably have to face UCLA again to win the Pac-12, so their odds of reaching the College Football Playoff are pretty muted; we give them almost a 1% chance. But they have nearly a 50% of having a 10+ win season after counting their possible bowl win; it would be their first 10+ win season since 2000.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #17 Ohio State Buckeyes

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Ohio State Buckeyes  (Big Ten #2; East #2)

#17	2013 Results	AP #12 USA #10	Strength:#8  Success:#17  Overall:#12
		Record: 12-2	Bowl: Lost to Clemson 40-35 (Orange)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #5 | USA #6 | Lindy's #5 | Athlon #3 | Steele #7
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 98%   Playoff odds: 8%

By waiting to make our rankings until August (and updating them up until the first kickoff) we have the advantage of seeing things happen like, say, Braxton Miller injuring his shoulder and being out for the season. Prior to this event, we ranked the Buckeyes #8, still lower than anyone else but not by much.

Offense 4 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #3 (raw) #5 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #30 (adjusted)

The offense was set for a decline even before Braxton Miller went out, but not one of this magnitude.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #92 (raw) #97 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #37
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #115 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #54

Even with Braxton Miller (2,094 yards, 24 TDs, 7 int) the passing game wasn't that productive. It was efficient, however, and moreso with backup Kenny Guiton (749 yards, 14 TDs, 2 int) available. Guyton graduated and Miller is out for the year, leaving redshirt freshman JT Barrett behind center. Top target Corey Brown (771 yards, 10 TDs) is gone but the next four are back including Devin Smith (660, 8). The offensive line is probably a lot weaker than last year (4 starters are gone) when it allowed 22 sacks. In short, this is a tough situation for Barrett but a great opportunity, and who knows, he might increase the passing yardage. But more likely Ohio State shells up into the running game that Urban Meyer loves so much.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #6 (raw) #2 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #20 (adj.)

Ohio State was a running machine last year, and led the nation most of the year (adjusted figures) until Auburn overtook them. They had eight players top 100 yards but the top four are gone: Carlos Hyde (1,521 yards, 15 TDs), Braxton Miller (1,068 yards, 12 TDs), Jordan Hall (536, 8), and Kenny Guiton (330). Ezekiel Elliot (262 yards) is the leading returnee and now even more pressure will be on the sophomore to be the engine of the offense. The offensive line returns just one starter from last year, Taylor Decker. They do get Chad Lindsay, a part-time starter at Alabama last year, and three defensive linemen come over to help out including Joe Hale who started 9 games at nose tackle. Regardless, this won't be last year's offensive line. But Elliot averaged 8.7 yards per carry and OSU's QBs can all run the ball so they should still have a powerful rushing attack, but not like last season.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #12    Pass Defense  per-game: #109   Per-attempt: #55
Defense 6 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #32 (raw) #37 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #10	'13 picks: #48
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #40 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #3	'14 picks: #53

The Buckeye defensive line looks to be in good shape with Noah Spense (8 sacks), Joey Bosa (7.5 sacks), and Michael Bennett (7 sacks) all returning; it's no shock that we see their top ten pass rush poised to leap into the top five. Two starters are back at linebacker but they lose Ryan Shazier (143 tackles, 6 sacks, plus 16.5 tackles for loss), who was their #1 tackler by 61. The secondary was their weak spot last year and it doesn't help that three starters are gone including Bradley Roby (13 pass breakups). They have Doran Grant (10 pass breakups) back but reserve Jamal Marcus transferred out over the summer. The defensive line looks great but the losses in the secondary, plus Shazier, make the D look slightly weaker.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Cameron Johnston (44.0 average) is back but not kicker Drew Basil (9 of 10 FG).
• Return Game:  Dontre Wilson averaged 24.9 yards per kickoff return; he's back but Corey Brown (7.8 on punts) is not.
• Turnovers projection:  Miller and especially Guiton threw very few interceptions, and we can't expect that of the underclassmen that will be replacing them.
• Injury correction:  The offense benefitted from a very low injury rate last year, and as we can already see, that doesn't remain constant year to year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #5          2013 Recruiting Rank: #7
As usual, Ohio State is in the top 10 in recruiting, and ranks #1 in the Big Ten pretty easily. They have a consensus 5-star player in Raekwon McMillan, a linebacker from Georgia. Urban Meyer is 24-0 here in strictly regular-season games so far; if he can keep that streak going after Miller's injury, he deserves kudos.

2013 Recap 
Ohio State looked like they could do it again—go 12-0—and they did. It wasn't always pretty, like the 40-20 opener vs. Buffalo, the 52-34 win at Cal, or, for other reasons, the 76-0 blanking of Florida A&M. Though close calls continued vs. Northwestern and Iowa (10 point wins each) the wins kept coming, and soon became dominant: they beat Penn State 63-0, Purdue 56-0, and Indiana 42-14. Against Michigan they were taken to the wire but the Wolverines went for 2 and the win, and lost. The Buckeyes were 12-0 again. But this time they played in the Big Ten championship and a much hungrier Michigan State team battered them 34-24. The Buckeyes were a good match for Clemson but the Tigers came out on top 40-35.

Last year's prediction: Last year Ohio State was a unanimous #2, but we put them #7 and projected a 10-2 season while still favoring them in every game (Michigan was the only close game at 56%).

2014 Outlook

Ohio State 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	Navy	64%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Virginia Tech	75%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Kent State	99%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Cincinnati	84%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Maryland	48%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	90%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Penn State	79%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	92%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Michigan State	38%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Minnesota	64%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	59%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	67%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 98%

Ohio State should still have a good year. We favor them in 10 games, with one tossup; a few weeks ago we favored them in 11 games, with one tossup. The Michigan State game was the tossup and now that favors the Spartans in East Lansing. Maryland on the road is now a tossup when it was a clear Ohio State win before.

Other than those games, we see lots of wins for the Buckeyes. The opener at Navy could be one of their tougher tests, both because Navy is good this year, it's on the road, and it will be the new quarterback's first start. Virginia Tech at home won't be easy, either. Yet we favor OSU in both.

Kent State and Cincinnati at home should be a bit easier. After Maryland they have Rutgers, Penn State, and Illinois in a row and all three should be victories. They close with three tough games: Minnesota on the road, and Indiana and Michigan at home. The odds actually favor the Buckeyes going 2-1 there, thus the cumulative projection of 9-3.

We should take some time to remember what happened the last time Ohio State's star quarterback was surprisingly lost over the summer. Prior to the 2011 season Terrelle Pryor was suspended 5 games and decided to go pro instead, and the team went 6-7 that year. The conditions are a bit different; that year a number of other key players were suspended early, too, and coach Jim Tressel was fired, leaving DC Luke Fickell to coach the uninspired team. We don't see that scenario repeating under Urban Meyer.

Ohio State was one of the favorites to make the College Football Playoff this year before losing Miller. Their path is still pretty clear but now, we have the Buckeyes #2 in the East division to Michigan State. The race is still tight so we give Ohio State an 8% chance. It was a lot higher a few weeks ago.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #20 Wisconsin Badgers

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Wisconsin Badgers  (Big Ten #4; West #1)

#20	2013 Results	AP #22 USA #21	Strength:#15  Success:#32  Overall:#18
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Lost to S Carolina 34-24 (Capital One)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #14 | USA #14 | Lindy's #14 | Athlon #15 | Steele #24
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.7%   Playoff odds: 10%

The Badgers probably won't be as good as last year, but how far they fall depends on how much their great defense weakens. If it doesn't, they could have one hell of a year.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #26 (raw) #27 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #27 (adjusted)

The running game should be in great shape with Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement the new tandem, and the passing game should...well, who cares about passing anyway?

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #97 (raw) #100 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #24
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #111 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #18

Joel Stave (2,494 yards, 22 TDs, 13 int) had a mixed year as Wisconsin QB, with some good moments and others not-so-great. The passing game wasn't very impressive and with the top four receivers gone it looks bleak this season. Jared Abbrederis (1,081 yards, 7 TDs) is the big loss of course, and #2 Jacob Petersen (551) also departs while Alex Erickson (#5 w/127 yards) is the top returnee. The offensive line will probably provide even better protection than last year (16 sacks) but we see Wisconsin's sad passing game getting sadder. Not that it matters as much, since it's not what the offense revolves around. Head coach Gary Anderson recently named QB-turned-WR-turned-safety-turned-QB Tanner McEvoy the starter.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #9 (raw) #8 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #7 (adj.)

Melvin Gordon (1,609 yards, 12 TDs) chose to return to Wisconsin instead of opting for the pros, but James White (1,444 yards, 13 TDs) is gone. Can Corey Clement (547 yards) fill the void? Well, Clement averaged 8.2 yards per carry to White's 6.5, so it's arguable he can. The offensive line looks stronger, too, as roughly 3.5 starters return between seniors Kyle Costigan and Rob Havenstein, junior Tyler Marz and sophomore Dan Voltz. If Clement is the new White, then who replaces Clement? Solve that and they should match or exceed last year's great numbers.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #3    Pass Defense  per-game: #40   Per-attempt: #24
Defense 3 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #6 (raw) #5 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #60	'13 picks: #97
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #11 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #84	'14 picks: #97

The defense was fantastic last year, every bit as important as the ground game to Wisconsin's success. This year they return just three starters. Will there be enough carry-over to prevent a collapse? The front seven loses all of its starters in the 3-4, so say goodbye to last year's #3 rushing defense. At linebacker alone they lose three of their top four tacklers—#1 Chris Borland, #3 Ethan Armstrong, and #4 Conor O'Neil. #2 Michael Caputo returns to the secondary where three of four starters are back, so the pass defense might even improve, but even there there's bad news as reserve Nate Hammond was lost to injury in the summer and safety Tanner McEvoy moves to quarterback. Despite all of this, we aren't predicting doom for the Badgers. They still have 8 of the top 15 tacklers back and Gary Andersen always had Utah State's D in good shape. Though they won't be a top ten unit any more they might not fall much farther.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Drew Meyer (38.6 average) and co-placekicker Jack Russell (9 of 13 FG) are both back.
• Return Game:  Receiver Kenzel Doe averaged 26.5 yards per kickoff return (1 touchdown) and 7.2 per punt return; he's back.
• Turnovers projection:  Wisconsin's +7 fumble margin is unlikely to happen in 2014, but Joel Stave should cut down on his interceptions to offset it.
• Injury correction:  Wisconsin benefitted from a lower-than-normal injury rate last year, and by definition probably won't do so this year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #39          2013 Recruiting Rank: #44
Gary Anderson's 2nd recruiting class here isn't really any better than the 1st one, which is unusual. They did lose a couple of players to transfer or DNQ, which lowers their ranking. It still ranks in the middle of the pack for the Big Ten.

2013 Recap 
Wisconsin overmatched their first two opponents—UMass and Tennessee Tech—winning 93-0 combined, but they had a tougher time against Arizona State. Still, they would have won if they'd been able to set up a field goal, and Joel Stave's odd knee-down dance didn't make it clear he was down, and the officials messed up the situation further and they lost, 32-30. They rebounded to beat Purdue 41-10 but fell to Ohio State 31-24. For the next six games the Badgers were more or less dominant and were 9-2 when upset by Penn State, 31-24. They lost to South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl, 34-24.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Wisconsin #27—a little low, but not far from where they finished in the polls. We projected an 8-4 season—again, a little low, but game-by-game we had them 10-2. The losses we picked were ASU and OSU, so we had their entire season correct until the Penn State upset. We also correctly predicted they'd have a top ten defense.

2014 Outlook

Wisconsin 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	LSU	36%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	Western Illinois	99%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	84%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	South Florida	98%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Northwestern	61%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	91%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	64%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Rutgers	79%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Purdue	95%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	81%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Iowa	61%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	78%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.7%

Sometimes teams are ranked high due to quality, and sometimes it's because people think they're going to win a lot of games because their schedule is easy. I suspect that Wisconsin's pre-season ranking is more due to the latter. Though the Badgers can't really be expected to have a better team than last year, they are bumped up to #14 in both polls.

If Wisconsin hadn't scheduled LSU they would be favored in every game this year. They play the Tigers in Houston, right next door to Louisiana but a world away from Wisconsin so we call it a road game and LSU is favored. But then the expected wins start rolling in, starting with three easy games at home (only Bowling Green is a challenge at all).

In the Big Ten they face Venric Mark-less Northwestern on the road, followed by two more home games that should be wins (Maryland may be a test). Neither Rutgers nor Purdue on the road should stop the Badgers, nor Nebraska or Minnesota in Madison. Iowa in Iowa City might be the biggest test of the Big Ten season.

We call that 11-1 game-by-game, or 9-3 by the cumulative estimate which takes into account chances of being upset in the closer games, and there are a few. But if Wisconsin's defense doesn't collapse, they should be in good shape in the West division and we favor them heavily. They would face either a Braxton Miller-less Ohio State or Michigan State, with decent odds of winning either (though they'd still be an underdog against both). We give them a 10% chance of making the College Football Playoff, mostly because their path is so clear. Even an opening-week loss to LSU doesn't hurt them too much there, and a win would help a lot.

We don't expect 11 straight wins out of this team, since the entire front seven is rebuilt. But the possibility is there, and that has to be exciting for fans since, for all their wins and bowl games, Wisconsin is almost never in the national title hunt even at mid-season.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #18 Indiana Hoosiers

SportsRatings 2014 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Indiana Hoosiers  (Big Ten #3; East #3)

#18	2013 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#55  Success:#72  Overall:#58
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #69 | Athlon #58 | Steele #51
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 98%   Playoff odds: 2%

Double down: phrase, slang: When something you believed in is proven untrue, stick to your guns regardless of the past evidence, and believe in it even more.

That's one definition, and it fits our review of Indiana. Last year we expected a big improvement that didn't happen. So of course this year we are predicting an even bigger improvement, completely out of line with the conventional wisdom.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #17 (raw) #10 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #5 (adjusted)

Indiana's offense was potent last year, and thanks to what should be a very strong offensive line it could be even better this season.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #18 (raw) #16 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #32
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #19 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #10

Indiana had three strong options at quarterback last year but now they're down to one. Nate Sudfeld (2,523 yards, 21 TDs, 9 int) will helm the team as Tre Roberson (1,128 yards, 15:4) transferred. After starting in 2012 Cameron Coffman barely played. Indiana loses their top two receivers in Cody Latimer (1,096 yards, 9 TDs) and Kofi Hughes (739, 7), while Shane Wynn (633) is back for his senior year. In all just 4 of the top 9 return. Without a provent backup and missing their top two Sudfeld will have a tough time matching last year's production, but a much-improved offensive line (18 sacks last year) should help keep it from slipping much.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #31 (raw) #22 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #12 (adj.)

Tevin Coleman (958 yards, 12 TDs) is back; #2 Stephen Houston (753 yards) is not. Also, with QB Roberson gone the QB position isn't a running threat any more. But check out the offensive line: Starters Collin Rahrig, Bernard Taylor, Jason Spriggs, and Ralston Evans are all back, along with 2 more half-time starters, meaning that essentially the entire starting lineup is back. Moreover, 2012 starters Dan Feeney and Payton Eckert return from redshirting in '13. This is a very strong and deep offensive line, and behind them the running game should be strong, too.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #103    Pass Defense  per-game: #125   Per-attempt: #115
Defense 9 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #119 (raw) #110 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #108	'13 picks: #89
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #89 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #104	'14 picks: #31

Last year with 7 starters returning we predicted a decent improvement in Indiana's defense from #109 to to #97. There was no improvement as it fell to #110—and in raw terms it got worse, from #107 to #119 which gave the impression it regressed terribly. This year we're again predicting an improvement and we'll see if this one sticks. Coordinator Mark Knorr is going with a 3-4 this year; two starters are back on the defensive line and Nick Mangieri jumps from the D-Line to the linebacker corps, giving them four returning starters there including top tackler David Cooper. The secondary returns three starters; Greg Heban is gone but Mark Murphy returns along with Tim Bennett who had 20 pass breakups. In fact so many pass breakups return that we see a huge jump coming in interceptions, up from 7 last year. In all 13 of the 14 top tacklers are back from last year and Kevin Wilson is sure the defense is ready to make a big leap. We agree, but note that we aren't even calling for them to be average—just to make some progress and not be horrible this season.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Erich Toth (40.6 punting average) is back but excellent kicker Mitch Ewald (9 of 11 FG last year) is gone.
• Return Game:  WR Shane Wynn remains the team's main return man; last year he averaged 23.1 yards on kickoffs and 14.0 on punts with one touchdown return. RB Tevin Coleman had a touchdown return in 2012.
• Turnovers projection:  We see a lot more picks coming from the defense—not a hard prediction to live up to as they only had 7 all last year.
• Injury correction:  The offense managed to be top ten in scoring while suffering more injuries than almost any other FBS team last year, and that bodes well for this year's success if they have fewer injuries as expected. Strangely, the underperforming defense can't use this excuse as they had an average amount of injuries.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #28          2013 Recruiting Rank: #45
Kevin Sumlin brought in a solid recruiting class this year, and it's clearly in the top half of the Big Ten. More of its ranking is due to quantity than quality but the buld are solid 3-stars. In reaction to the defense's problems last year he made a switch at coordinator. Despite not living up to expectations last year, the team did improve—from 1-11 in Wilson's first year, to 4-8 in 2012, to 5-7 last year.

2013 Recap 
Indiana's offense was on display early as they smashed Indiana State 73-35—but their defense looked suspect, too. They lost game 2 to Navy 41-35 demonstrating that their D was going to still be a problem. The Big Ten season was full of shootouts; the lost to Michigan 63-47, to Minnesota 42-39, and beat Illinois 52-35 and Purdue 56-36. The better the team, the worse the loss in general, as Wisconsin and Ohio State beat them 93-17 combined. They were 3-5 in the Big Ten but their non-conference schedule had a 9-, 10-, and 12-win team on it, and they only won once of those (Bowling Green) and ended up 5-7, missing a bowl game for the 6th straight year.

Last year's prediction: We thought Indiana would go 7-5 and go to a bowl game. It's not like we were putting them in the top 25 or anything ridiculous :D We had them going from #77 to #42, and they ended up #57—making a bit over half the progress we thought they would. On offense they exceeded our expectations, jumping from #34 to #10 (we predicted #15). But as mentioned the defense didn't improve at all. On the game-by-game chart we thought they'd beat Navy and Minnesota; they didn't, and that was the difference. Put another way: last year we thought they'd jump 35 ranking spots and they jumped 20. If they do the same thing this year they'll end up #35.

2014 Outlook

Indiana 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Indiana State	100%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Bowling Green	71%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Missouri	48%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	65%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	North Texas	96%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Iowa	61%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	55%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Michigan	50%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	89%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Rutgers	79%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Ohio State	41%	L
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	98%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 98%

Now this is doubling down. Indiana has largely the same tough schedule as last year—still Bowling Green and Missouri, but North Texas instead of Navy and that makes thing easier—but now we favor them in almost every game. The only game that's a clear loss is the road trip to Ohio State, and that one's become closer since Braxton Miller was lost for the year.

Missouri and Michigan are also road games, but those are tossups. We take the Hoosiers on the road at Iowa, and even at home against Michigan State (though that's very close).

In seven other games, Indiana is anywhere from a gimme (Indiana State, North Texas, Purdue), to heavy favorite (Penn State, Rutgers) to comfortably favored (Bowling Green, Maryland). Even if the other games seem a bit of a reach, winning the games above gives Indiana bowl eligibility with a win to spare—which is why they're close to certainly in bowl eligibility percentage.

The cumulative estimate is almost exactly on the border of 8 and 9 wins, so we expect an 8-4 or 9-3 record. If Indiana is really this good, however, you can see how easily the season could be really good; if you add in the two tossup games they're 11-1, and maybe Ohio State is really bad without Braxton, and Indiana goes 12-0! That's how we give them a 2% chance to go to the College Football Playoff.

But let's remember last year's lack of improvement on defense and mere iterative improvement in W/L record. We think that's the worst-case scenario, that Indiana improves only one win, from 5-7 to 6-6. It may seem pretty lame compared to what we've discussed above, but it would get them back to a bowl game. In terms of expectations I don't think that's a bad place to start: the Hoosiers should expect bowl eligibility this year, and anything else is just a bonus.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #22 Arizona State Sun Devils

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Arizona State Sun Devils  (Pac-12 #6; South #3)

#22	2013 Results	AP #21 USA #20	Strength:#6  Success:#16  Overall:#10
		Record: 10-4	Bowl: lost to Texas Tech 37-23 (Holiday)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #19 | USA #18 | Lindy's #30 | Athlon #16 | Steele #38
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 87%   Playoff odds: <1%

Lindy's and Phil Steele are bucking the trend of putting ASU in the top 25, but we're not—though we've downgraded them considerably from last year's Strength rating (#6 !).

Offense 6 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #10 (raw) #6 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #7 (adjusted)

The offense isn't going to be a problem, in fact it could be as good as it was last year.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #34 (raw) #26 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #101
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #14 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #106

Taylor Kelly (3,635 yards, 28 TDs, 12 int) is back and ASU's top two pass catchers are, too, Jaelen Strong (1,122 yards, 7 TDs) and RB DJ Foster (653 yards). The next four (#3 thru #6), totaling almost 1,500 yards, are gone however, but there are three others who topped 100 yards will have to take their place. The offensive line allowed 41 sacks which is still a lot even for nearly 500 attempts. Now a senior, Kelly has a few strikes against him but with Strong back he should have his best year.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #41 (raw) #20 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #27 (adj.)

The Sun Devils lose leading rusher Marion Grice (996 yards, 14 TDs) who was also a great receiver (#3 w/438) and solid kick returner. QB Kelly was #2 with 608 (9 TDs) and DJ Foster (501 yards) is also back; in all, three of the top four return. The offensive line returns Tyler Sulka, Jamil Douglas, and Vi Teofilo, all of whom started every game last year. Without Grice production may be down a bit but Foster will have a great year as feature back.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #24    Pass Defense  per-game: #28   Per-attempt: #57
Defense 2 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #68 (raw) #31 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #4	'13 picks: #18
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #90 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #42	'14 picks: #88

Here's the problem: a defense that returns just two starters. The front 3 in the 3-4 is all gone; they lose Carl Bradford (8.5 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss), Davon Coleman (8.5 sacks), and Will Sutton (9.5 tackles for loss). At linebacker top tackler Chris Young (112 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss) departs, and Robert Nelson (6 interceptions) is one of three starters missing from the secondary. Their one piece of good news is the transfer from Purdue of backup linebacker Ruben Ibarra, who will be eligible immediately. They lose almost 90% of their sacks, falling from the top five in pass rush to just above-average. They return just a handful of pass breakups and 4 of 21 interceptions, falling from the top 25 to well below average in our projection. Ten of their top twelve tacklers are gone. We see a huge drop coming in the ASU scoring defense rating.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Zane Gonzalez (25 of 30 FG) is back, as is punter Matt Haack (38.2 average) and punter/kicker Alex Garoutte (38.8 on punts last year).
• Return Game:  The return team will miss both Marion Grice (24.1 average on kickoffs) and Robert Nelson (6.4 on punts).
• Turnovers projection:  The big change we see coming is a sharp decline in interceptions; the Sun Devils had 21 last year and we don't think they'll come close to that this year.
• Injury correction:  ASU avoided injuries on both offense and defense, and that's very unlikely to happen again, another reason to downgrade the team.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #16          2013 Recruiting Rank: #23
Recruiting has been very good lately with two top 25 classes; this one ranks near the very top of the Pac-12. Todd Graham is in his 3rd year here after jumping around for a few seasons (Tulsa, then Pitt, then ASU). He's had two good years here so far.

2013 Recap 
ASU could be dominant, or they could wilt when meeting resistance of a good team. That almost happened against Wisconsin but a fluke last few seconds preserved a 32-30 win, but they couldn't handle Stanford and lost 42-28. They overwhelmed USC 62-41 and basically got Lane Kiffin fired, but against an arguably inferior Notre Dame team they lost a close one, 37-34. They went on a roll after that, winning seven straight including beating Washington 53-24 and UCLA 38-33, but they lost to the Cardinal again in the Pac-12 championship 38-14. Heavily favored over Texas Tech, they fell to the Holiday Bowl Pac-12 jinx that Cal suffered in 2004, losing 37-23.

Last year's prediction: In some ways our pick was very good: we had ASU #8 last year, and they finished #6 in Strength. But most people wouldn't rank the Sun Devils there at the end of the season—they were 16th in Success, and 19th in the AP poll. We projected a 9-3 record which in this case was a little low for their 10-2 finish, but we also favored them in every individual game. In short, we said they'd be good and they were, but the details were as inconsistent as ASU's own season was.

2014 Outlook

ASU 2014 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Weber State	100%	W
9/6	Sat	@	New Mexico	95%	W
9/13	Sat	@	*Colorado	80%	W
9/25	Thu	vs.	*UCLA	24%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*USC	32%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	50%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Washington	39%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Utah	60%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	66%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Oregon State	48%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	75%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*Arizona	50%	W
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 87%

Arizona State will almost certainly have three wins in their first three games. Then there are three more games they should win during the season. Then there are three games that rate as so close we can barely pick a winner.

Weber State, New Mexico, and Colorado is a three-game vacation for ASU compared to the rest of the schedule, even through the last two games are on the road. They have to come home to UCLA, then travel to USC, and will probably be 3-2 after that.

Then they host Stanford and it's too close to call. We give a designation on the chart above but it could change at any time prior to the season starting based on injuries, etc. The same is true for the final at Arizona.

The Sun Devils probably lose at Washington, but we give them home wins vs. Utah and Notre Dame. Oregon State is another very close call but on the road the Beavers have the slight edge. ASU should beat Washington State.

That's 6 wins plus the three tossups, which implies 7 or 8 wins; the cumulative estimate parks near 7-5, while straight up we get 8-4 winning two of the games by a sliver. It's easy to see what could change this: the defense being decent this year. If that somehow happens then Arizona State has a shot at greatness. Then again, if the offense declines very much it could be a long year. But we see the Sun Devils going to a bowl game again in 2014.

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #21 Florida Gators

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Florida Gators  (SEC #7; East #3)

#21	2013 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#49  Success:#76  Overall:#39
		Record: 4-8	Bowl: None
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #27 | USA #27 | Lindy's #25 | Athlon #23 | Steele #19
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 95%   Playoff odds: <1%

Florida had their worst year since 1979, but they should right the ship in 2014—as long as they remain even somewhat injury-free.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #116 (raw) #99 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #73 (adjusted)

Florida's offense was terrible in 2013, and they're moving to a hurry-up spread to fix it. Things will be better, but probably not "fixed."

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #111 (raw) #104 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #71
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #97 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #85

Last year's woeful passing attack was largely the result of Jeff Driskel (477 yards, 2 TD, 3 int) getting hurt early in the year and Tyler Murphy (1,216, 6:5) getting hurt not long after. Murphy transferred and Driskel, who had 1,646 yards, 12:5 in 2012, is back. Does this mean the passing game is going to take off? No—look at 2012's #116 ranking. But it should improve, despite the loss of two of the top three receivers: Solomon Patton (556 yards) is gone, while #2 Quinton Dunbar (548) returns. The move to a faster pace will get the passing game off the ground, but don't expect fireworks.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #90 (raw) #63 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #40 (adj.)

Florida's ground game was about average for an FBS school, which is pretty bad if you're in the SEC. But with the top four rushers back things should improve. Mack Brown (543 yards) returns with Kelvin Taylor (508) and Matt Jones (339) who will form a committee again. The offensive line was fragmented by injuries but full-time starter Max Garcia is back along with half-time starters Tyler Moore, DJ Humphries, and Trenton Brown, while 2012 starter Chaz Green returns too. Look for a better rushing attack but again, don't expect miracles; the offensive problems at Florida have been going on a long time.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #6    Pass Defense  per-game: #7   Per-attempt: #12
Defense 7 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #16 (raw) #7 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #61	'13 picks: #44
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #5 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #59	'14 picks: #47

Florida's defense started the year as one of the best in the nation, but as injuries piled up weaknesses emerged, and by the time they faced Georgia Southern, their formerly #1 rushing defense was crushed. For the year, however, they still rank in the top ten in many areas, and that's where we expect them to be in 2014. The defensive line looks to be stronger this year, and at linebacker the team's two top tacklers, Michael Taylor and Anthony Morrison, are back. The secondary loses Jaylen Watkins and Cody Riggs but Vernon Hargreaves (11 pass breakups) is back. The key will be injuries, as in, they won't lose as many starters to injury as they did in '13. Despite the pickup in offensive pace, which hurts the defense, we think Florida will have a top ten defense again, this time start to finish.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Florida used freshman kicker Austin Hardin, who hit 4 of 12 field goals, before settling on Francisco Velez who hit 6 of 8; both are back. Punter Johnny Townshend (42.0 average) is also back but Kyle Christie might get his job back.
• Return Game:  Both Solomon Patton (29.2 average on kickoffs; 1 touchdown) and Marcus Roberson (9.2 on punts) are gone. Andre Debose had a kickoff return touchdown in 2012 (28.3 ave) and is back after redshirting last year.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see much change here; the QBs didn't throw a lot of picks last year and the defense isn't takeaway-based.
• Injury correction:  Florida was the unluckiest team in the injury department except for Idaho, with both the offense and defense getting hit hard. We expect a fairly strong return to form based on this.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #14          2013 Recruiting Rank: #5
Here's another reason Florida will bounce back: recruiting has been stellar the last few years, as usual. This year's group only ranks about 9th in the SEC but that's nitpicking. The class includes corner Jalen Tabor, a consensus 5-star. Head coach Will Muschamp is certainly on the short-list of coaches on the hot seat after last year's 4-8 debacle. It seems like decades ago when Florida went 11-2, even though that was 2012!

2013 Recap 
It's hard to pinpoint exactly when it was clear something was very wrong with Florida. There were signs all along the way, but even at 4-4 they had lost only to very good teams. The loss to Vanderbilt seemed to be a turning point, and by then the injuries had piled up enough to make people realize the Gators weren't pulling out of the tailspin. Of course, the real kicker was the loss to Georgia Southern; other than the Eagles, every team that beat them was an FBS bowl team.

Last year's prediction: Ouch. All we can do is compare our pick for Florida with everyone else's. We had the Gators at #16, lower than the AP, coaches, Lindy's, Athlon, or Phil Steele. But only by 3 to 6 spots. We projected an 8-4 record with game-by-game picks showing 7-5. Without being able to predict injuries, no one would have seen Florida going from 11-2 to 4-8.

2014 Outlook

Florida 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Idaho	99%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	99%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	87%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Alabama	13%	L
10/4	Sat	@	*Tennessee	72%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*LSU	51%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	63%	W
11/1	Sat	N	*Georgia	34%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	82%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	52%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	Eastern Kentucky	99%	W
11/29	Sat	@	Florida State	6%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 95%

The annual game with Florida State insures that Florida will have a harder schedule than almost every team in the country in most years. And when they play Alabama and LSU from the West? Yeah, they pretty much have it worse than anyone for most of the schedule. Thank goodness for non-conference games where they can schedule Idaho, Eastern Michigan, and Eastern Kentucky.

In the SEC we give Florida wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, and Vanderbit, and that's enough to get to 7-5 and a bowl game. LSU and South Carolina are tossups that could push them to 9-3, but the cumulative estimate is in-between a 7 and 8-win season.

The Gators should have a good rebound year and basically be back where they were before last year's nightmare. But it probably won't be back to 2012 again. Even if they did manage to beat both Alabama and Florida State, they'd probably have to beat Alabama again in the SEC championship...just to get a chance to play Florida State again in the playoffs!

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #23 Mississippi State Bulldogs

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Mississippi State Bulldogs  (SEC #8; West #5)

#23	2013 Results	AP #39 USA NR	Strength:#36  Success:#45  Overall:#31
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: beat Rice 44-7 (Liberty)
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP #36 | USA #29 | Lindy's #43 | Athlon #33 | Steele #21
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 98%   Playoff odds: <1%

Mississippi State should be much improved this year, and thanks to a very friendly schedule—about the friendliest an SEC team can construct—it ought to show up in the W column, too.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #77 (raw) #57 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #49 (adjusted)

The Bulldogs had a mediocre offense last year and though they improve quite a bit in passing and running (courtesy of Dak Prescott) they aren't about to light up the scoreboard just yet.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #56 (raw) #53 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #58
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #29 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #62

Dak Prescott (1,940 yards, 10 TDs, 7 int) is a hot name in college football pre-season talk this year but normally it's not for his passing. This season could be pretty good as his four top targets from last year are back led by Jameon Lewis (923 yards, 5 TDs). He might not make people forget Tyler Russell (875 yards last year, over 5,000 career) who departs after an injury-filled senior season, but production should be up considerably from last year.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #44 (raw) #39 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #31 (adj.)

Last season Dak Prescott (829 yards, 13 TDs) established himself as one of the nation's best running quarterbacks last year. The Bulldogs lose their top running back from last year, LaDarius Perkins (542 yards), leaving #2 Josh Robinson (459) in charge—and Robinson's ypc (5.9) was much better than Perkins' (4.0). Three starters return to the offensive line: Dillon Day, Ben Beckwith, and Blaine Clausell, all seniors. Though projected O-line starter Damien Robinson was lost to a knee injury recently, the ground game should pick up.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #20    Pass Defense  per-game: #20   Per-attempt: #10
Defense 8 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #35 (raw) #19 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #81	'13 picks: #14
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #6 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #71	'14 picks: #24

Three of four starters return to the Bulldog defensive line, and at linebacker two starters return including top tackler Benardrick McKinney; Deontay Skinner departs. The secondary also has three starters back including Kendrick Market, but Nickoe Whitley (5 interceptions) is gone and projected starter Cedric Jiles will miss a number of games with a hamstring injury. This could be a top ten defense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Devon Bell was co-punter (41.2 average) and co-placekicker last year (making just 6 of 14 attempts). He takes over as punter full-time from Baker Swedenburg (42.5 ave) while Evan Sobiesk (3 of 6 FG last year) is the kicker.
• Return Game:  Jameon Lewis was the main return man for the Bulldogs last year averaging 23.5 on kickoffs and just 2.3 yards per punt. He had a touchdown return on a kickoff in 2012.
• Turnovers projection:  The Bulldogs had a +5 fumble margin last year that probably won't repeat, and even as the defense improves we think they'll fall short of last year's 14 picks on defense.
• Injury correction:  The defense suffered a lot of injuries last year, and they probably won't face that adversity again this season.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #32          2013 Recruiting Rank: #35
Mississippi State recruits pretty well for an FBS team, but for the SEC, being consistently outside the top 25 makes it pretty hard to compete. Their ranking here puts them 2nd to last in the conference, in a grouping with Arkansas and South Carolina, but SC was #21 in 2012 and Arkansas switched coaches recently. So far 2015 is looking better for the Bulldogs and coach Dan Mullen, now in his 6th year in Starksville.

2013 Recap 
Mississippi State fans didn't have a lot to cheer about until the end of the season. The team started 2-3, losing badly to Oklahoma State (21-3), falling to Auburn (at the time not known as a national title contender), and LSU 59-26, while beating Alcorn State and Troy by a combined 113-7. They beat Bowling Green by a point, and Kentucky by 6 before losing three straight to the "real" teams on their schedule (South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama). They needed overtime to beat woeful Arkansas, but they did beat Ole Miss, 17-10, in overtime, and with that one the W is all that mattered. They had their best performance in the Liberty Bowl beating Rice 44-7.

Last year's prediction: We ranked the Bulldogs #39, which is exactly where the AP put them at year's end, and projected a 6-6 record which was correct, too. In the game-by-game picks we made two errors: we thought they'd beat Auburn and lose to Mississippi.

2014 Outlook

Mississippi State 2014 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Southern Miss	99%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	UAB	99%	W
9/13	Sat	@	South Alabama	91%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*LSU	33%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	62%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	37%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Kentucky	74%	W
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	80%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Martin	99%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Alabama	12%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	91%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Mississippi	32%	L
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

Mississippi State's schedule this year is so much easier than last year's it's hardly funny. Gone from the pre-conference schedule is anyone remotely like Oklahoma State, or even Bowling Green. It's arguable that there's no one as tough as Troy on it. Instead they have Southern Miss, Alabama-Birmingham, and Tennessee-Martin at home, with South Alabama on the road. The latter is by far the toughest test and there's no question they should expect to win all four.

For the SEC, this time instead of South Carolina they get Vanderbilt, an excellent trade this season, and still have Kentucky. That ought to be bowl eligibility right there.

We also think they can beat Arkansas and a weakened Texas A&M at home. They play at LSU, Alabama, and Mississippi this year, and Auburn at home, all of which look like losses.

That adds up to 8-4 and the cumulative estimate settles right around there, too. Nine wins is the next most common outcome, with 11-1 about a 2% chance. Good things happen when you schedule four cupcakes!

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2014 Pre-season Rankings: #24 Utah Utes

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Utah Utes  (Pac-12 #7; South #4)

#24	2013 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#27  Success:#36  Overall:#33
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None
	2014 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #65 | Athlon #54 | Steele #48
		Record: 6-6	Bowl odds: 71%   Playoff odds: <1%

Utah finished 5-7 but was nearly in the top 25 in our Strength power rating; they only have to get a little bit better to be a top 25 team in 2014, making them our first surprise team of the year.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2013 Scoring Offense: #67 (raw) #32 (adjusted for opposition)
	2014 Projected Scoring Offense: #12 (adjusted)

Ex-Wyoming coach Dave Christensen is the new offensive coordinator, and he has the offense running at a very fast pace which should amp up scoring.

Passing Game	2013 Passing Rank: #64 (raw) #43 (adjusted)	2013 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #52
	2014 Projected Passing Rank: #22 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #52

Travis Wilson (1,827 yards, 16 TDs, 16 int) had quite a ride in the last year with his health but he's back now, as is backup Adam Schulz (1,008 yards, 6:5). Top receiver Dres Anderson (1,002 yards) is back; the rest of the top four is gone but they do have two others who topped 150 yards and Kenneth Scott who had 360 in 2012 (medical redshirt '13). With Wilson back and the offense getting a lot more reps the passing game should be pushed into the top 25.

Rushing

2013 Rushing Rank: #73 (raw) #49 (adjusted)

2014 Projected Rushing Rank: #43 (adj.)

Bubba Poole (607 yards) led last year and he's back; in all, three of the top four ground gainers return. JUCO Devontae Booker joins the group this year after not qualifying last season due to a slight problem with a forged transcript. The offensive line beings back starters Siaosi Aiono, Junior Salt, and Jeremiah Poutasi, all juniors. The faster offense should insure that the running game improves, too.

2013 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #8    Pass Defense  per-game: #86   Per-attempt: #44
Defense 6 ret. starters	'13 Scoring Defense: #76 (raw) #32 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #2	'13 picks: #121
	'14 Projected Scoring Defense: #43 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #4	'14 picks: #118

Utah had a very strong rushing defense last year but gave up a lot of passing yards, though the per-attempt figures weren't horrible. On pass plays they had fantastic pressure but didn't get turnovers (just 3 interceptions). Trevor Reilly (100 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss) departs from the defensive line which loses three starters in all. But they'll be in good shape at linebacker, at least by midseason when both Jacoby Hale (6.5 sacks) and Miami transfer Gionni Paul are healed and in the lineup. The secondary loses Keith McGill (12 pass breakups) but Brian Blechen who redshirted in 2013 is back. In all the defense might be about the same, but the added tempo on offense will avail opponents more opportunity to score themselves.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Andy Phillips (17 of 20 field goals) and punter Tom Hackett (43.4 average) are back.
• Return Game:  Punt fielder Goeffrey Norwood (8.6 average) is back along with two main kickoff returners.
• Turnovers projection:  Wilson and Schulz had 21 picks between them and that should fall quite a bit, especially as Oklahoma transfer Kendall Thompson is available as another alternative. The defense will almost certainly have more than 3 picks themselves, too.
• Injury correction:  The offense in particular had a lot of injuries and they should have better luck with that this year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2014 Recruiting Rank: #61          2013 Recruiting Rank: #42
Recruiting this year is in the lower half of the Pac-12, and that's with counting Devantae Booker as part of this year's group. Booker was part of last year's class but didn't qualify—it was found that he and his previous school had changed some transcript details. He made up the courses needed and officially enrolled in the spring. Kyle Whittingham has been at Utah 9 seasons but things have been going south gradually—from 13-0 in 2008 to 10-3, 10-3, 8-5, 5-7, and 5-7. Will the Ute administration tolerate three losing seasons in a row?

2013 Recap 
Utah beat Utah State, 30-26, and crushed Weber State, but fell to Oregon State in overtime, 51-48. They beat BYU and lost to UCLA before they had their big win, upsetting Stanford 27-21. At 4-2 they were looking good, but they lost 5 straight to take them out of Pac-12 contention first and bowl eligibility 2nd. A win over Colorado was their consolation in another disappointing 5-7 season.

Last year's prediction: We ranked the Utes #60 and projected a 4-8 record, which doesn't sound too far off at first blush—give them the Stanford upset and it's pretty much correct, right? But Utah ended up ranked #27 in our Strength power rating—beating Stanford and losing three games by 7 or fewer points, and playing a tough schedule (10 bowl teams) did that. And our game-by-game picks only favored the Utes in 2 games, so it's clear we underranked them by quite a bit.

2014 Outlook

Utah 2014 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Idaho State	100%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	78%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Michigan	42%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	69%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*UCLA	9%	L
10/16	Thu	@	*Oregon State	46%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*USC	47%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Arizona State	40%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	27%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Stanford	32%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	66%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Colorado	79%	W
Straight up: 5-7  Cume: 6-6  Bowl eligible: 71%

Though we rate Utah pretty high, that doesn't mean we think they're going to have a particularly great season as they have a very tough schedule. We do think the odds are with them in getting to a bowl game, but if you count up the games they're favored in you might not get to six wins unless you give them some of the tossup games.

The problem isn't the first game, as Idaho State (3-9 in the FCS last year) is a freebie. But the other 11 games might be the toughest 11 any team faces. Carr-less Fresno State at home should be a win, but then the Utes travel to Michigan for a game that is winnable but not easy by any means. With luck, Utah could be 3-0 here and that would make their post-season hopes shine a lot brighter.

The trouble is the Pac-12 schedule where they have the misfortune of playing UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Stanford—the latter two being the teams they draw out of the North division, just like last year. We have the USC game (in Salt Lake City) as a tossup, but in the others the Utes are underdogs.

Washington State in the Pac-12 opener and Arizona and Colorado at the end of the season are games Utah can and should win, and the Oregon State and Arizona State games don't look too bad from here. But if Utah wants to go bowling there's not much room for error—they need to win the games they're supposed to win and then either beat USC or upset Michigan, Oregon State, or ASU. Or they can beat Stanford again. There are a lot of paths to 6 or more wins if Utah is as good as we think, but if they start losing to teams they're supposed to beat—in particular if they don't have at least 3 wins in September—then it's probably going to be another disappointing year.

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