|
|
Is Thursday's limited action more important than all of Saturday's in week 11 of college football? It sure could be, as Thursday features the BCS #3, #5, #6, and #10 teams the evening of November 7th. Oregon travels to Stanford in a top-5 matchup while another unbeaten, Baylor, hosts Oklahoma. Troy also plays Louisiana-Lafayette, just to be complete.
But of course it's the first two games that matter, and boy do they: Oregon is locked in a pitched battle for the all-important 2nd place in the BCS, while Stanford as the top 1-loss team would probably play for the BCS title if four of the five major undefeated teams lose. They can take care of one of them Thursday night and if Oklahoma beats Baylor the Cardinal will only need losses by two teams ahead of them.
Baylor would be in the same position with a win—needing either two or three more losses, and maybe just one since they'd pass Stanford and be neck and neck with Ohio State by the end of the season if they are unbeaten. Oklahoma is only the 5th-highest-ranked 1-loss team but beating Baylor would move them up in the pecking order and anything can happen in the final weeks.
So with all that in mind, here are Thursday's monster games:
Oregon (8-0) at Stanford (7-1)
Vegas line/spread: Oregon by 10 1/2
Strength power rating: Oregon 37, Stanford 26
Game-comparison % to win: Oregon 76%
Yardage Analysis: Oregon 37, Stanford 21
Breakdown: Oregon is a big favorite by the oddsmakers and an even bigger favorite by our metrics, not surprising given that the Ducks are #3 in the Strength power rating, ahead of even Alabama. Stanford is no slouch at #7 but there's a big gap. Oregon combines the #2 adjusted scoring offense with the #11 defense; Stanford is better on defense at #5 but their offense is shaky at #33.
This could be a repeat of last year's low-scoring game (a 17-14 Stanford overtime win), especially after DeAnthony Thomas suggested Oregon would score 40 points on the Cardinal, which should give the defense some locker-room fodder. A low score would give the Cardinal a better chance to win but is Stanford's offense up to the challenge? Neither their rushing (#37) nor passing game (#79) are elite, and Oregon counters with the #39 rushing and #18 passing defense.
On offense, of course, the Ducks are fantastic (#4 rushing, #20 passing) led by Marcus Mariota, who had a poor game against Stanford last season. Mariota's Heisman hopes rest on his redemption in this game. Stanford's D (#4 rushing, #17 passing) is a great match for Oregon's O so nothing will be too easy for the Ducks. But Oregon should have over 200 yards in both areas while Stanford should be just below 200 in both. Oregon may grind out a close win on the road, as Stanford did last year.
Final Prediction: Oregon 26, Stanford 21
Oklahoma (7-1) at Baylor (7-0)
Vegas line/spread: Baylor by 15
Strength power rating: Baylor 58, Oklahoma 24
Game-comparison % to win: Baylor 94%
Yardage Analysis: Baylor 61, Oklahoma 27
Breakdown: The question is, does Oklahoma have a chance? People who haven't followed college football this year closely might be shocked at the two-touchdown-plus spread for the Bears when both teams are in the top ten. But our power rating suggests that's on the conservative side, giving Baylor a crazy 34-point edge if both teams play the way they've played this year.
It comes down to this: every Baylor performance this season has been better than every Oklahoma performance. Even Baylor's tepid 35-25 road win over Kansas State narrowly tops anything Oklahoma has done, and the others blow it away. When you take apart the games and cross-combine offensive and defensive performances, Oklahoma still wins only 6% of the total comparisons.
Now, Oklahoma is ostensibly Baylor's toughest test to date, and sometimes "bully" teams like Baylor that beat up on poor competition hit a wall against good teams. It happened to some extent against Kansas State; the Bears scored half of what they normally do and gave up their 2nd-highest point total on defense. So one might expect Oklahoma to make it even closer.
But Oklahoma ranks only #34 in our Strength power rating (All-Division), lower than Kansas State (#23) and much lower than #1 Baylor. Oklahoma's balance of quality (#49 offense, #26 defense) is fairly similar to Kansas State (#46, #14), so expect them to mirror Kansas State's offensive success against Baylor's #29 (adjusted) scoring D. The comparison is more complicated for Oklahoma's defense; the Sooners are #1 against the pass, but just #68 against the run. While that's great for their hope of slowing down Bryce Petty, it's not good for their hopes of slowing down Lache Seastrunk and company. Kansas State succeeded mainly by stuffing the run (Seastrunk had 59 yards), not an approach that will likely work for the Sooners.
Unless Oklahoma can slow down both the run and pass, Baylor can run their offense with success. And the main ingredient in this game is home field advantage. The Bears have scored 69, 70, 70, 73, and 71 points when playing at home. It looks like too big of a job for Oklahoma to stop Baylor's running game, which should go for 300 yards and that success will lead Petty and the passing game to success. Oklahoma's own running game will keep them in it for some time but they don't have a passing game that can outplay Baylor's improved pass defense. We see the Bears pulling away for a big home victory; their real tests during the last month will be on the road when they face Oklahoma State and slumping TCU (a possible trap game).
Final Prediction: Baylor 48, Oklahoma 27
|
|
Comments