SportsRatings: College Football

Heisman Race, week 13: Winston or Bust

Based on on-field performance, Jameis Winston should be ready to win the Heisman Trophy by a near-record margin. After big losses by the teams of Johnny Manziel, Marcus Mariota, and Bryce Petty, Winston stands as the clear favorite among those who have not stumbled.

But of course, then there's the off-field issues that voters pay attention to. Such as, do we want to give the Heisman to someone who might be a rapist?

That cloud hangs over Winston and could affect the voting enough to essentially lead to a random winner. In the last week, the Winston investigation became another he-said-she-said affair. He's either guilty or the victim of false accusations. Clearly, no Heisman voter has any clue as to the veracity of the claims, making it a very confusing situation.

If there were alternatives to Winston, who presided last weekend over an 80-14 blowout of Idaho, then the matter would be simpler. Just vote in one of the other worthy candidates, all of whom, we assume, are not accused of rape at the moment. But the problem is that the other leading candidates all have problems as Heisman winner.

Last week's leader, Johnny Manziel, hit the skids in a 34-10 loss to LSU. It was the first game this year where Manziel just didn't play well, completing 39% of his passes with 2 interceptions. He's now thrown 13 picks, and it was his team's third loss. Plus he already has a Heisman; has he had a good enough year to justify winning two in a row?

Last week's #3 candidate Marcus Mariota saw his Oregon Ducks blown out 42-16 at Arizona. Mariota threw his first two interceptions of the year in the loss and he drops two spots to #5. Moving up to fill the void are Jordan Lynch, who ran for another 161 yards against Toledo, and Tajh Boyd of Clemson who had 5 touchdown passes against The Citadel. Lynch's opposition has of course been questionable, while Boyd was crushed head-to-head against Winston's Florida State team. But they might be the best alternatives we have right now (these stats are from before NIU's Tuesday night game vs. Western Michigan).

SportsRatings Heisman Race for week 13

1. [up 1] Jameis Winston, QB Florida State (11-0; beat Idaho 80-14)
   LW:   14-25  56.0%  225yd  4TD  0int   4rsh  -19yd  -5av  0TD 1fmb
   TOT: 199-286 69.6% 3163yd 32TD  7int  62rsh  126yd 2.0av  3TD 1fmb
   
   
2. [dn 1] Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M (8-3; lost to LSU 34-10)
   LW:   16-41  39.0%  224yd  1TD  2int  12rsh   54yd 4.5av  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 246-356 69.1% 3537yd 32TD 13int 122rsh  665yd 5.5av  8TD 1fmb
   
   
3. [up 1] Jordan Lynch, QB N. Illinois (11-0; beat Toledo 35-17)
   LW:   17-22  77.3%  202yd  0TD  0int  28rsh  161yd 5.8av  3TD 0fmb
   TOT: 207-312 66.3% 2418yd 21TD  5int 221rsh 1434yd 6.5av 17TD 1fmb 1recTD
   
   
4. [up 1] Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson (10-1; beat The Citadel 52-6)
   LW:   21-28  75.0%  288yd  5TD  0int   4rsh   20yd 5.0av  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 233-346 67.3% 3248yd 29TD  7int 119rsh  257yd 2.2av  8TD 1fmb
   
   
5. [dn 2] Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (9-2; lost to Arizona 42-16)
   LW:   27-41  65.9%  308yd  2TD  2int   8rsh   52yd 6.5av  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 210-326 64.4% 3127yd 27TD  2int  74rsh  529yd 7.1av  9TD 4fmb
   
   
6. [up 1] Braxton Miller, QB Ohio State (11-0; beat Indiana 42-14)
   LW:   11-17  64.7%  160yd  2TD 1int  13rsh  144yd  11av  2TD 1fmb
   TOT: 132-195 67.7% 1626yd 19TD 4int 116rsh  738yd 6.4av  5TD 4fmb
   
   
7. [dn 1] Bryce Petty, QB Baylor (9-1; lost to Oklahoma State 49-17)
   LW:   28-48  58.3%  359yd  2TD 0int  11rsh   46yd 4.2av  0TD 1fmb
   TOT: 180-281 64.1% 3351yd 26TD 1int  64rsh  173yd 2.7av 10TD 4fmb
   
   
8. [up 3] A.J. McCarron, QB Alabama (11-0; beat Chattanooga 49-0)
   LW:   13-16  81.3%  171yd  2TD 0int   1rsh   15yd   15av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 190-277 68.6% 2399yd 23TD 5int  20rsh    5yd  0.3av 0TD 0fmb
   
   
9. [dn 1] Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville (10-1; beat Memphis 24-17)
   LW:   26-36  72.2%  220yd  1TD 0int  10rsh   17yd 1.7av  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 245-345 71.0% 3268yd 25TD 3int  51rsh   37yd 0.7av  0TD 1fmb
   
   out:
   
   
10. Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon St (6-5; lost to Washington 69-27)
11. Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (9-2; beat Minnesota 20-7)
12. Aaron Murray, QB Georgia
13. Sean Mannion, QB Oregon St
14. Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina
15. Marqise Lee, WR USC

We never had Bryce Petty in serious competition for the trophy but he was getting their rapidly as Baylor won a few big games. But Baylor hit a speed bump—more like a mountain—against Oklahoma State in a 49-17 loss, and Petty stumbled, literally. Petty's stats weren't bad—359 passing yards, no picks—but the blowout loss ends the aura of invincibility Baylor's offense had. It didn't help that Petty had a clear path to the end zone but tripped on his own at the 1 yard-line (Baylor didn't score on the series) and later didn't cover a bad snap (which was scooped up for a 78-yard touchdown run by the Cowboys). Petty falls to #7.

That means Braxton Miller of undefeated Ohio State moves up to #6. By virtue of guiding an undefeated team, Miller might deserve a trip to New York despite missing several early games which have kept his stats from being too gaudy. But even if he'd played every game, it might not have mattered. He tends to have about 200 passing yards per game; running the ball is where he's most impressive, as he was against Indiana. Remaining games vs. the Michigan teams could put him squarely in the top 5; right now he's at #6, up one spot.

At #8, up three spots, is another undefeated quarterback, A.J. McCarron of Alabama. His stats are similarly subdued and efficient like Miller's. Even against Chattanooga McCarron threw for just 171 yards, and his rushing stats—5 yards total on the year—are almost a counterargument. But in the current environment he might finish in the top 3 on a lot of ballots if Alabama goes 13-0. Teddy Bridgewater falls another spot to #9 and appears ready to exit next week.

Running backs make late push, but not Gordon

This week's two dropouts were obvious: Brandin Cooks as Oregon State loses their fifth game in a row, and Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin. Not only has Gordon been the #2 running back on his team lately, but a few other running backs around the nation are clearly in front of him.

KaDeem Carey of Arizona had over 200 yards and 4 touchdowns against Oregon. He's rushed for over 100 yards in every game this year but suffered due to lack of attention from Arizona's early losses. That, and he missed the first game of the year due to suspension from a domestic dispute (no charges were filed). Had Carey kicked off the year with a 200+ yard effort against Northern Arizona, he might have been in the running all along, and could be in position to win right now.

But the RB everyone's talking about now is Andre Williams of Boston College. He's put up 295, 339, and 263 yards in B.C.'s last three games and just topped 2,000 yards for the season. It's very likely that he'll be on a lot of ballots this year and might even manage to win if Winston is discarded. Again, early losses made him invisible—Boston College was 3-4 at one point—but the real argument against Williams is this: 38 yards against USC and 70 against Clemson. Those were the team's only tough road tests and Williams fared miserably, averaging 2.0 yards per carry against the Trojans. If we had to put one running back on the list now it would be Carey, whose consistency is more of a virtue than Williams' explosiveness against mediocre teams.

But we're sticking with our current field of quarterbacks. Unless they all end up sucking in the next two weeks. Then who knows, we might not pick a favorite at all this year. Maybe this year's ceremony should be skipped, so we don't have to either consecrate a rapist or unfairly snub an innocent man? Just a thought.

Two weeks left: Alabama, FSU in BCS command; Ohio State, Auburn, Missouri still alive

There are just two weeks left in the college football regular season—including conference championship games, but not including Army/Navy the week after. In two weeks we will know who is playing for the national title; here is a look at the odds for each of the relevant teams.

Of the five undefeated teams, three have a good chance of being in the title game but of course, someone is going to be left out. That will almost certainly be Ohio State if all three remain undefeated. The Buckeyes will get in if Alabama or FSU messes up. And if FSU or Ohio State loses, then there are two SEC teams hoping to earn a chance by winning that conference.

The following teams are the BCS top five, and they are the only 5 teams that have a significant chance of playing for the national title. We rank them in order of likelihood of playing in the title game given their strength and their remaining schedule.

1. Florida State (92.2%)
   vs.
   @Fla           97%
   =Duke          95%
   ============== 92.2%
   
   Barring off-field factors (Winston held out, and voters switch to Ohio State because of it), current BCS #2 Florida State will play for the national championship if they can get by Florida and Duke. Both are looking like routine wins right now. Unless FSU's upset propensity of previous years returns, they're in.
   
   
2. Alabama (51.1%)       
   vs.
   @Auburn       74%
   =Missouri     69%
   ============  51.1%
   
   BCS #1 Alabama also has a clear, albeit much more difficult, road to the BCS title game. The Tide face 10-1 Auburn on the road and then, most likely, a 1-loss Missouri team (it might also be South Carolina, a similar prospect in terms of likelihood to win). We give the Tide just better than a 50% chance of making it past both teams. If they do, then they will remain #1 in the BCS.
   
   
3. Ohio State (28.9%)
   vs.
   @Michigan       77%
   =Michigan St    71%
   =============   54.7%
   
   The #3 Buckeyes are very much alive with over a 1 in 4 chance of getting to the title game. First, of course, they have to take care of business at Michigan and vs. Michigan State in the Big Ten title game. We give them about a 55% chance of winning both, and if they do they need a loss from either or both of Alabama or FSU, a 53% chance. We don't think a 1-loss SEC team gets in ahead of the Buckeyes; if they are undefeated for a 2nd straight year and one of only two unbeaten teams, they will get in.
   
   
4. Missouri (15.7%)
   vs.
   Texas A&M       68%
   =Alabama (74%)  41% OR
   =Auburn  (26%)  62%
   ============    31.6%
   
   Missouri is #5 in the BCS but has the best shot of any 1-loss team to get to the big game. They need to beat Texas A&M to reach the SEC title game, and then beat either Alabama or Auburn to win the conference title at 12-1. Then, if FSU or Ohio State stumbles (about a 50/50 chance), the Tigers are in. The way the SEC works from here on out is like a staggered mini-playoff.
   
   
5. Auburn (4.9%)
   vs.
   Alabama         26%
   =Missouri       38%
   =============    9.9%
   
   BCS #4 Auburn is the 3rd SEC team that has a shot at the title game, but their odds are much lower than Alabama or Missouri; since they rank lowest in our power rating, they have the toughest road ahead and have to beat both Alabama and Missouri (or South Carolina). In any case, they have about a 1 in 4 chance to get past Alabama, about a 1 in 10 chance to win the SEC, and about a 1 in 20 chance to play for the national title.
   
   
6. Other (7.2%)
   
   This category includes every other team that has a prayer, in every possible scenario. Each of these teams has about a 1% chance, more or less:
   
   BCS #6 Clemson is a very long-shot due to their huge loss to Florida State; voters won't put them ahead of the Seminoles if FSU loses one game, and won't want a rematch with the Seminoles if FSU is the lone unbeaten team and the 1-loss teams all suffer defeats.
   
   BCS #7 Oklahoma State might be in the best shape among the "other" teams. A win over Oklahoma lets them finish strong and they can hope for lots of upsets above them.
   
   BCS #8 Stanford has 2 losses and faces very long odds. It would take severe carnage for a 2-loss team to get in.
   
   BCS #9 Baylor needs a loss by Oklahoma State and lots of other teams, too. Realistically an Oklahoma win just puts Baylor back in the Fiesta Bowl, not in BCS title contention.
   
   BCS #10 South Carolina has the same problem as Stanford: 2 losses. But a win over Clemson, followed by an upset of Alabama, could put the Gamecocks in the hunt if every single other team loses. Even then, unlikely.
   
   BCS #11 Michigan State has just one loss and a convincing win over Ohio State could boost them in the polls enough to take advantage if there is an upset armageddon.
   
   So you see why this category adds up to just 7.2% And really, it also includes the "second chances" of the top three teams. Alabama and maybe Florida State could have a chance of making the BCS title game as a 1-loss team. It's a long shot in both cases but as good as some of the other teams in this category.

Other undefeated teams: Northern Illinois and Fresno State

These teams are still undefeated, and could also be put in the "other" category above, just in case every single team has 2 or more losses. But being realistic, they are playing for an automatic BCS bowl bid. And right now, the Huskies have a big advantage over the Bulldogs; not only do they currently outrank them in the BCS (#14 to #16), they also have a much better chance of winning their two remaining games:

• Northern Illinois (64%)
  vs.
  W Michigan    99%
  =Buffalo      65%
  ============= 64.4%
  
  
• Fresno State (11%)
  vs.
  @San Jose St  73%
  Utah St       42%
  ============= 30.7%

Fresno State fans have been complaining that the computers put Northern Illinois ahead (as we said would happen), but let's face it, the Huskies have played a tougher schedule. And they've been roughly as good in general during the season, practically tied in our Strength power rating (#44 to #46) and Sagarin's Predictor (#47 to #46).

And NIU has an easier path in their final two games; we figure the Bulldogs will lose to Utah State in the MWC final while Northern Illinois edges Buffalo for the MAC title. So NIU's chances are basically their win rate of 64%, while Fresno needs an NIU loss, reducing their odds to about 11%.

Bizarre Butterfly Effect Boosts Minnesota State-Mankato

Sometimes power ratings are weird, and do unexpected things. Today we have a case in point.

Normally even the "odd" things—such as Alabama not being #1 in a margin-of-victory-based power rating—can be explained until it makes some mathematical sense at least, even if one disagrees or it doesn't seem to reflect reality. Oregon and Baylor's other game performances were so otherworldly that even getting blown out this weekend didn't drop them below the Tide when all the games are averaged.

But in today's update of the All-Division Power Rating—which normally behaves itself very well in naturally segregating the Divisions based on quality—took a turn for the bizarre as Minnesota-Mankato's rating doubled from last week and the Mavericks moved into the #29 spot among ALL teams in the nation.

  #  Team                        rec   Rating Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
 26. Oklahoma                    9-2   57.23   54.48 [ 48]   -2.74 [ 20]
 27. Louisville                 10-1   56.90   53.63 [ 50]   -3.27 [ 18]
 28. Utah St                     7-4   56.67   52.36 [ 59]   -4.30 [ 15]
 29. Minn St-Mankato            11-0   56.16   57.18 [ 34]    1.01 [ 39]
 30. North Carolina              6-5   55.17   55.98 [ 40]    0.81 [ 38]
 31. North Dakota St            11-0   54.84   52.47 [ 58]   -2.37 [ 22]
 32. Mississippi                 7-4   54.68   54.04 [ 49]   -0.64 [ 30]
 33. Boise St                    7-4   54.66   57.34 [ 32]    2.68 [ 47]

Perfectly logical, right? - this week's All-division power rating, #26 to #33

What's odd is they didn't even play a game. The boost seems to be based on Minnesota-Duluth's 55-13 win over Emporia State. This amazingly pushed Duluth to #42, and pushed Mankato—the only team to beat Duluth this year—even higher. 

The All-Division power rating has never had the so-called "Mount Union" problem where teams that dominate lower divisions rank high when in the mix of all teams. When the power rating is executed, Mount Union often starts near the top but quickly bubbles their way down in the 100s or 200s (this week they are #238). The problem is unofficially named for Mount Union because of the team's usual dominance in Division III.

This year it seems there isn't quite enough interplay between Division II and the FCS to keep the Division II teams completely in line—or there isn't enough interplay between the Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference and other Division II teams to create a pecking order, so that one game can have an outsized effect.

It wouldn't be so unusual if the condition had existed all season, but it suddenly appeared this week. Not after Mankato beat Upper Iowa 72-6, but the week after. Northwest Missouri State was far and away #1 last week in our Division II-only ratings before this "change of guard" took place. A "tipping point" was apparently reached by Duluth's big win in the opening playoff round (St. Cloud's win over Henderson State added to it) and both Minnesota teams were off to the races. Why they bothered to stop where they did, I don't know. Apparently there is a little bit of "gravity" that kept them from breaching the top 25.

So instead of being a 10-point favorite in the playoffs by our power ratings, Northwest Missouri is a 10+ point underdog just one week later. That's not an update that makes sense. Teams don't get 20+ points better or worse in one week, especially when they didn't play a game. The comparison between Duluth and Emporia—a 55-13 game—must have been one of the few games—maybe the only game—situating the NSIC teams among their peers. There's the chance that it's an accurate re-appraisal of the teams (after all Mankato is #1 in the polls) but judging by its effect against other teams in the nation, I'm suspicious.

Interestingly the Bearcats play Minnesota-Duluth in their first-round playoff game...if they whip the Bulldogs, that will in turn bring Duluth and Mankato's ratings back to earth, while a narrow win would partially restore order. Meanwhile Mankato plays St. Cloud, who ranks a pumped-up #64 due to the same effect; if Mankato wins there, they would then face Northwest Missouri State. And that game is just to get to the Final Four!

It might be up to the other teams in the Division II Final Four to make some sense out of this nonsense. But for now, let's just say our money is on the team that emerges from the bracket in question to win it all. Last week Northwest Missouri State looked like a great bet, now the Minnesota teams' ratings are on steroids. And what's really odd is that Mankato is a 2-seed in the bracket, and they're ranked #1 in the D-II polls...thereby putting the #1 and #2 team (NW Missouri) in the same bracket. Wtf, D-II?

Hopefully the effect that bloated Mankato's rating will disperse, but it's also possible that someone from Division II ends the season ranked silly-high. Meaning, ranked ahead of North Dakota State, which is ridiculous. The FCS teams have so many comparisons to the FBS that their highest-ranked team usually deserves to be where they are. It looks like Division II isn't being held in check—at least, not  this week. Was the sudden revision a bizarre fluke, or does it show the Minnesota teams are really the ones to beat? Stay tuned!

Blowout Saturday: Top 25 Winners and Losers

Wow.

The margins of victory were high in college football on Saturday, with 6 teams winning by 50 or more points and a total of 25 winning by 24 points or more going back to Tuesday night's action.

Why? Blame the SEC, who schedules this week as their turn to play FCS schools (as opposed to the first few weeks of the season). Meanwhile the ACC apparently liked the idea and a lot of their teams scheduled FCS (or, poor FBS) schools for Saturday. And then there were a slew of surprise blowouts and just plain mismatches among other Division I-A schools.

So here is a list of the 25 biggest blowouts from Saturday and what they mean for each team involved, with a particular look in how the blowout shifted things in our power ratings.

1. Florida State 80, Idaho 14 - Before this game we calculated that, in order to hold their rating in our All-Division Strength power rating, FSU would have to win this game by 73 points. And with minutes to go the score was 80-7. But Idaho scored again, meaning the Seminoles were very slightly downgraded for this game, believe it or not. They remained #1, however.
2. North Carolina 80, Old Dominion 20 - FSU wasn't the only ACC team to reach 80 on Saturday, as UNC crushed Old Dominion, a team that is joining the FBS and will play a full schedule next year. This year the Monarchs are 1-4 against the FBS, with this easily being their worst performance. Who did they beat? Idaho (see #1 above). The win helped UNC jump from #46 to #30 in the All-Division power rating.
3. South Carolina 70, Coastal Carolina 10 - The first of the SEC teams to beat completely outmatched FCS teams, the Gamecocks won by 60 like the Tar Heels. It was good for a move from #21 to #16.
4. Georgia Tech 66, Alabama A&M 7 - The ACC, again! Seriously, they're trying to steal the SEC's idea. The Yellow Jackets actually fell a spot to #23 for beating A&M by 59, since the Bulldogs ranked #354 before the game (they fell a spot, too, go figure).
5. Bowling Green 58, Eastern Michigan 7 - This was just a good old-fashioned conference-game butt-kicking administered by the Falcons on the Eagles, and on the road, too. Despite beating the 36-point spread our power rating called for, Bowling Green dipped a few spots (though their rating went up slightly). Eastern Michigan (2-9) fell from 239 to 258.
6. Stanford 63, California 13 - The Cardinal took advantage of Cal's worst year in decades to beat the Bears by 50 points in Palo Alto. Stanford didn't gain much of anything in our power rating, probably because Oregon's loss offset any gains here. 1-11 Cal fell from #101 to #111.
7. Alabama 49, Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 - This blowout didn't help the Tide any as they remained #4. And it didn't help their defensive rating since a shutout was expected, and that's the best you can do.
8. Clemson 52, The Citadel 6 - Another ACC team! They've really taken to this easy-week-break philosophy. The Tigers actually dropped a couple of spots for winning 52-6. In fact, this is Clemson's 2nd win over a 1-AA school this year; they beat South Carolina State 52-13.
9. Florida Atlantic 55, New Mexico State 10 - FAU was supposed to win this one by 27 according to our math but the Owls went wild on the Aggies. New Mexico State is now 1-10 in their first year as a Division I-A independent.
10. Georgia 59, Kentucky 17 - Yet another SEC team brutalizing a helpless FCS school. No wait--Kentucky is in the SEC too, right? This beatdown had bad consequences for the Bulldogs as QB Aaron Murray tore his ACL. So while some may question why these schools schedule an easy opponent before the rivalry and championship games, this is why. Georgia played a real opponent and while the result looked the same on the scoreboard, their SEC opponent was much more physical than a hapless FCS school might have been.
11. Washington 69, Oregon State 27 - This was a huge, dominant victory for the Huskies, who led 48-0 at one point. Washington needed this win while Oregon State took their 4th straight loss.
12. Tulane 45, UTEP 3 - Really? Tulane is six touchdowns better than UTEP? Apparently they were on Saturday, where we expected a 3 touchdown margin at most. Don't look now but Tulane is 7-4, while UTEP fell to 2-9. We guessed Tulane would improve from last year's 2-10 but not this much. UTEP hasn't even meet our low expectations.
13. Fresno State 69, New Mexico 28 - New Mexico is the better team from that state but that didn't prevent a bad result as they visited Fresno. The Bulldogs are 10-0 now and still in the hunt for a BCS bowl berth. They're only #46 in our power rating so they'll need some big-time luck if they make it to the Fiesta Bowl against, say, Oklahoma State.
14. Marshall 48, FIU 10 - Florida International is probably the worst FBS team this year, despite their win over Southern Miss which would suggest otherwise. This game is yet another example of how far the program has fallen in the last few years. Marshall is on-track to meet our 9-3 pre-season estimate.
15. Buffalo 44, Miami Ohio 7 - Another in-conference blowout, this by the high-quality Bulls over the low-quality Redhawks on Tuesday. Buffalo plays Bowling Green (see blowout #5)  on Friday with the winner getting a shot at Northern Illinois for the MAC title.
16. Central Michigan 37, Massachusetts 0 - Another MAC blowout, making three so far on the list. UMass hasn't been the worst I-A team this year but they are bottom ten; you have to be to get blanked by Central Michigan (5-6) who now ranks #108 in the FBS.
17. Iowa State 34, Kansas 0 - Speaking of getting blanked, didn't it seem like Kansas was playing a bit better lately? I guess not. The Cyclones were 95th and the Jayhawks #103 before the game, suggesting a tight contest, but nope. Iowa State's scoring defense ranking jumped from #91 to #82 as a result of the shutout, while Kansas' scoring offense fell from #103 to #111. Kansas (3-8) still has the better record as ISU is 2-9.
18. Oklahoma State 49, Baylor 17 - This was the shocker. It's not surprising that Baylor eventually got "exposed" but this kind of blowout was stunning. The Bears were hurting from injuries and they hadn't played well on the road compared to their dominant home performances. We picked this game as their most likely downfall, and we wouldn't be surprised if they lose to TCU on the road next week, too.
19. Kent State 44, Ohio U 13 - What is it with the MAC? Kent came in 3-8 with Ohio 6-4, so this was an upset—a road upset—as well as a blowout on Tuesday night.
20. Western Kentucky 38, Texas State 7 - Not a big surprise that WKU put the hurt on the Bobcats in their 2nd year in the FBS. But it was a road game for the Hilltoppers and the teams came into the contest with identical 6-4 records.
21. Ohio State 42, Indiana 14 - Now we're getting into some expected blowouts. This one wasn't far off the spread I don't think; our power rating suggested 25 points.
22. Arizona 42, Oregon 16 - This is NOT one of the expected blowouts—at least, not in this direction. Given a reprieve with Stanford's loss, the Ducks laid an egg. Oregon dropped over 4 points in the All-Division power rating but remained #3; in the FBS-only Strength rating they fell to #4 below Alabama. Meanwhile Arizona zoomed from #25 to #16.
23. Central Florida 41, Rutgers 17 - The Knights aren't getting too much respect for their 9-1 season so far. Their only loss is to South Carolina—by a field goal—and they beat 10-1 Louisville on the road. But they're 17th in the AP poll and in the coaches poll they are 19th, still three spots below Louisville (likewise in Harris, at #20 vs. #18).
24. LSU 34, Texas A&M 10 - Ouch, this one hurts Johnny Manziel's Heisman hopes, that's for sure. A&M hasn't lost to any bad teams, but their defense just isn't good enough to compete this year. On Saturday, their offense wasn't good enough to bail them out or even keep it close.
25. Michigan State 30, Northwestern 6 - There seems to be a trend here: each week the Spartans get better and the Wildcats get worse.

Whew. That's a lot of one-sided football. Hopefully next weekend doesn't feature too much more of the same, but given that there are a lot of rivalry games (and few if any FBS-FCS matchups), we shouldn't have to worry too much.

Heisman Race, week 12: Photo finish in store for Manziel, Winston?

With just a few weeks left in the season, the Heisman race is probably going to be determined by how Johnny Manziel plays in the next two games, and whether Bryce Petty can keep his team undefeated and winning big.

Manziel holds on to our #1 spot, but just barely, in an idle week. Jameis Winston is still coming on strong but a few things hold him back. One, his performance in FSU's 2nd straight 59-3 blowout was good but not great—he completed an amazing 19 of 21 passes but had negative rushing yardage and just 2 TDs. Fantastic for anyone else, but not quite enough to go from #2 to #1. Two, some issues from his past came up that could affect his candidacy. But no judgement on that until something concrete comes out. Three, and most important, his team is facing an extremely easy schedule as of late, and that doesn't look to change in the following weeks as the Seminoles face Idaho, Florida, and Duke. Not long ago it looked like Florida was a big test and that they'd rematch Miami; now the Gators have a losing record and while the Blue Devils beat the Hurricanes, they don't command the same cachet.

That's why the play of Manziel, who faces LSU next and Missouri the week after, may determine Winston's Heisman fate. Winning both those games will be tough for A&M and dropping one probably eliminates Manziel. Then, Winston has a weekend where Manziel doesn't play to seal the deal...or convince voters he should be in front despite any news that might come out.

Meanwhile Marcus Mariota showed what he would look like if he weren't a dual-threat quarterback, and his numbers looked a lot like standard-issue Teddy Bridgewater, with nearly 300 yards and 3 TDs, and negative rushing yardage. If both the top two mess up big time—or Winston's issue yields unpleasant news—Mariota is still around as a viable alternative; his Stanford performance can be somewhat excused by his injuries, which flattened his usual rushing prowess for a 2nd straight game.

Jordan Lynch and Tajh Boyd both put in great performances, showing that they're worthy of a New York invite. Lynch completed 81% for 345 yards and had 2 passing and 2 rushing TDs against a formerly 9-1 team. Boyd completed 77% for 340 yards and 4 TDs with 1 rushing TD against a solid Georgia Tech. Overall the top five doesn't change as all of the candidates are deserving and didn't slip at all.

1. Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M (8-2; idle last week)
   LW:  no game
   TOT: 230-315 73.0% 3313yd 31TD 11int 110rsh  611yd 5.6av  8TD 1fmb
2. Jameis Winston, QB Florida State (10-0; beat Syracuse 59-3)
   LW:   19-21  90.5%  277yd  2TD  0int   5rsh  -12yd  -2av  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 185-261 70.9% 2938yd 28TD  7int  58rsh  145yd 2.5av  3TD 0fmb
3. Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (9-1; beat Utah 44-21)
   LW:   19-26  73.1%  288yd  3TD  0int   4rsh  -18yd  -5av  0TD   0fmb
   TOT: 183-285 64.2% 2819yd 25TD  0int  66rsh  477yd 7.2av  9TD 3.5fmb
4. Jordan Lynch, QB N. Illinois (10-0; beat Ball State 48-27)
   LW:   26-32  81.3%  345yd  2TD  0int  20rsh  123yd 6.2av  2TD 0fmb
   TOT: 190-290 65.5% 2216yd 21TD  5int 193rsh 1273yd 6.6av 14TD 1fmb 1recTD
5. Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson (9-1; beat Georgia Tech 55-31)
   LW:   20-26  76.9%  340yd  4TD  1int  15rsh   43yd 2.9av  1TD 0fmb
   TOT: 212-318 66.7% 2960yd 24TD  7int 115rsh  237yd 2.1av  8TD 1fmb
6. [up 2] Bryce Petty, QB Baylor (9-0; beat Texas Tech 60-34)
   LW:   17-31  54.8%  335yd  3TD 0int   9rsh    9yd 1.0av  2TD 1fmb
   TOT: 152-233 65.2% 2992yd 24TD 1int  53rsh  127yd 2.4av 10TD 3fmb
7. Braxton Miller, QB Ohio State (10-0; beat Illinois 60-35)
   LW:   13-29  44.8%  150yd  2TD 0int  16rsh  184yd  12av  1TD 1fmb
   TOT: 121-178 68.0% 1466yd 17TD 3int 103rsh  594yd 5.8av  3TD 3fmb
8. [dn 2] Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville (9-1; beat Houston 20-13)
   LW:   19-29  65.5%  203yd  0TD 0int   4rsh  -20yd  -5av  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 219-309 70.9% 3048yd 24TD 3int  41rsh   20yd 0.5av  0TD 1fmb
9. [up 1] Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (8-2; beat Indiana 51-3)
   LW:   13rsh  146yd  11av  1TD 0fmb; 0rec 0yd 0TD 0retYD  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 156rsh 1306yd 8.4av 12TD 0fmb; 1rec 5yd 0TD 0retYd  0TD 0fmb
10. [dn 1] Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon St (6-4; lost to Arizona State 30-17)
    LW:    9rec   99yd  0TD 0fmb  2rsh  11yd 5.5av 0TD 0fmb   1retYD 0TD 1fmb
    TOT: 100rec 1443yd 14TD 0fmb 25rsh 185yd 7.4av 2TD 0fmb  72retYd 0TD 2fmb
11. [up 2] A.J. McCarron, QB Alabama (10-0; beat Miss St 20-7)
    LW:   18-32  56.3%  187yd  2TD 2int   3rsh   12yd  4.0av 0TD 0fmb
    TOT: 177-261 67.8% 2228yd 21TD 5int  19rsh  -10yd -0.5av 0TD 0fmb
    
    out:
    
    
12. Aaron Murray, QB Georgia
13. Sean Mannion, QB Oregon St
14. Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina
15. Marqise Lee, WR USC

But the top five might have to make room for Baylor's Bryce Petty. His Bears are 9-0 now and his stats are great. Moreso, his play against the tougher teams lately has been just as good, justifying a higher ranking that a "system quarterback" facing easy competition previously didn't deserve. He again had a lower completion percentage than normal but accounted for 5 total touchdowns. His overall stats run roughshod over Ohio State's Braxton Miller, whom he moves past while jumping from #8 to #6. Miller, however, has nothing to be ashamed of with his 184 yard rushing performance against Illinois. In fact, we move him ahead of Teddy Bridgewater, whose team has a loss. Bridgewater has 20 rushing yards on the year and these days if a quarterback has that he'd better throw for 5,000 yards (or lead the #1 team—see A.J. McCarron). Louisville's schedule is soft so there's really not much Bridgewater can do to break into the top five without disastrous games from those ahead of him. Bridgewater falls two spots to #8 while Miller holds at #7 for the umpteenth week.

Melvin Gordon is up one spot to #9 after a 146 yard performance that comes a little too late. He was just the 2nd leading rusher on his team against Indiana, and is down to 9th in the nation (fyi, Jordan Lynch is 10th). Seeing B.C.'s Andre Williams go for 339 yards didn't help matters, either. While Brandin Cooks still leads the nation in receiving, his team took its fourth loss and he hasn't been as spectacular lately. Both of the non-quarterback candidates are probably out after next week, barring a major unexpected development such as an Alabama loss. That's what it would take to knock A.J. McCarron out, even as he still brings up the rear this week. He played an uncharacteristically poor game against Mississippi State but 'Bama won and is still #1. So even if McCarron isn't the "best player on the best team" he's certainly the "leader of the top-ranked team."

Aaron Murray and Sean Mannion can't say that, as both Georgia and Oregon State suffered their fourth losses. For Murray it was a raw deal; after leading a 21-point 4th-quarter comeback he saw his team lose to Auburn on a fluke play they could have averted with sound defenes. In contrast Mannion has faced three tough defenses and done poorly against all of them, including 4 interceptions in the loss to Arizona State. Both drop from our active rankings this week.

Who will play for the BCS Championship? An odds update for Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, and Baylor

Since we reviewed the undefeated teams a couple of weeks ago, their ranks have dwindled to 6 from 8, and now there are just 4 legitimate undefeated contenders for the BCS championship. With several weeks left in the season, it's almost time to consider several 1-loss teams as legit contenders, too, but for now we're still going to concern ourselves with the undefeated teams, and how likely they are to stay that way.

So here is our new account of all 6 undefeated teams: four who are striving to be national champs, and two that are aiming for a BCS bowl berth. As before, we use our game-comparison system to come up with odds of winning each game, and carry the odds through to an overall percentage chance to go unbeaten.

Odds of Going Undefeated (in order of most- to least-likely)

1. Florida State 9-0 (88.4%)
   
   Syracuse         98%
   Idaho           100%
   @Florida         97%
   =Mia/Duke/GT/VT  93%
   ===============  88.4%
   
   Florida State again tops our list of most likely to go undefeated. The Seminoles are still #2 in our Strength power rating and beat Miami handily, removing one of the biggest obstacles in their path. Moreover, the Florida game is looking a lot easier now as the Gators are reeling from massive injuries. And while the opponent for the ACC title game is completely up in the air, it doesn't look any harder than it did when Miami was expected to make it there. All in all, FSU has about a 7 in 8 chance of going undefeated (up from 4 in 5 two weeks ago), and that would put them in the BCS title game, as they now have firm control of the #2 BCS spot following Oregon's loss to Stanford.
   
   
2. Baylor 8-0 (71.8%)
   
   =Texas Tech     96%
   @Oklahoma St    82%
   @TCU            95%
   Texas           96%
   ==============  71.8%
   
   Baylor too has a fairly easy path to going undefeated despite a tough schedule down the stretch—that is, if you believe they are the best team in the country as our Strength power rating does. The Bears demolished Oklahoma by 29—just 5 points fewer than the 34-point spread our power rating predicted. If they continue to live up to that they'll go unbeaten—but that's no guaranteee they'll play for the title. Their biggest potential hit is playing at Oklahoma State, but they still have over a 4 in 5 chance of winning that one, and over 7 in 10 overall. We'll see later how this translates into odds of playing for the national title.
   
   
3. Ohio State 9-0 (52.0%)
   
   @Illinois      94%
   Indiana        91%
   @Michigan      80%
   =Michigan St   76%
   =============  52.0%
   
   The Buckeyes have looked good the last several weeks and that puts them over the hump at 52%, so we now expect them—barely—to finish unbeaten (two weeks ago they were at 44.3%). The projected game against Michigan State for the Big Ten title looks like the toughest job, with each game just a bit harder than the last one. The Buckeyes just keep winning, but will back-to-back undefeated regular seasons be enough to land Ohio State in the BCS title game? Look past this list for the overall odds.
   
   
4. Alabama 9-0 (49.7%)       
   
   @MissSt        91%
   Chattanooga   100%
   @Auburn        77%
   =Missouri      71%
   =============  49.7%
   
   Believe it or not, we still expect Alabama to lose a game. Well, let's just say a 13-0 season is a coin flip at this point—not a lot different from Ohio State, but just barely on the wrong side of the odds. Each game, of course, is strongly titled toward the Tide, at 70% or more. But just like a player that shoots 70% from the line only makes 2 in a row 50% of the time, the cumulative odds say there's about a 1-in-2 chance that Alabama loses a game. Not to Tennessee-Chattanooga, which we give them outright. But maybe at Auburn, or to Missouri assuming that's who they play in the SEC title game. But Alabama is #1 in the BCS which means if they're unbeaten, they're in.
   
   
5. Fresno State 9-0 (28.2%)
   
   New Mexico     89%
   @SanJose       66%
   Boise St       48%
   ============== 28.2%
   
   Fresno State is playing for a BCS at-large berth, and we still don't think they'll get it. Their odds have rocketed from 10% two weeks ago to over 28% today, but they have some challenges left. Chiefly Boise State, whom they beat by a point and looks like a favorite to win the rematch (they would host that game, which helps). Fresno State has played better the last few weeks but still ranks just #45 in our all-Division Strength rating. Even if they win out, too, they have to stay ahead of Northern Illinois; they're currently one spot ahead at #14.
   
   
6. Northern Illinois 9-0 (18.3%)
   
   BallSt         63%
   @Toledo        47%
   WMich          98%
   Buffalo/BG     63%
   =============  18.3%
   
   Like Fresno State, NIU plays a game where we consider them a slight underdog (at Toledo) and they have a few other tough games—9-1 Ball State tonight, and 7-3 Buffalo or 7-3 Bowling Green in the MAC title game. If Jordan Lynch and co. come out unscathed they have to hope Fresno State has lost a game, or else they might not get to a 2nd straight BCS bowl game anyway.

 Odds of playing for the BCS championship

1. Florida State (88.4%) - the Seminoles just have to win out, and they're in
2. Alabama (49.7%) - The Tide win out, and they're in, too
3. Baylor (30.7%) - The undefeated Bears are in if FSU and Alabama both lose; or if one of those two loses along with Ohio State. If either FSU or Alabama loses, but Ohio State wins out, Baylor has about a 50/50 chance of being the #2 team. That's a total of 42.7% chance to be in the big game if the Bears go undefeated, reducing their 70.8% chance of going unbeaten to a 30.7% chance of making it to the BCS championship.
4. Ohio State (19.7%) - The Buckeyes are in the same situation as Baylor, hoping either Alabama or FSU loses. If only one loses, then they might need Baylor to lose, too, otherwise it's about 50/50 between the Bears and Buckeyes for the #2 spot. Since we have Baylor much more likely to finish undefeated than Ohio State, the Buckeyes' odds of making the BCS title game are lower. But who knows—our 50/50 split for who would be on top if both are undefeated might be off. Currently Ohio State is #3 and Baylor #5 in the standings, but we expect the difference would all but evaporate by the end of the season. The voters, however, might decide that OSU has earned a shot for going 25-0 in 2012 and 2013.

1-loss teams have a (slim) chance at this point

So in the end the most likely outcome is an undefeated matchup of Florida State and Alabama. Not a big surprise there. But what about Stanford and the other 1-loss teams?

Adding up the odds above comes to 188.5% of a total 200% (for two teams in the finals). That leaves an 11.5% chance for a 1-loss team to play for the title game, which seems about right at the moment. Realistically Baylor and Ohio State would not be among those who could pull it off with a loss; even Florida State might have trouble if they lose a game. Alabama could, as long as they end up in the SEC title game and win that.

The strongest-positioned 1-loss teams right now are Stanford at #4 and Auburn at #7 in the standings. Stanford is solid with the computers and voters and will stay so if they win out, winning the Pac-12 title. The Tigers play Alabama, and a victory there and an SEC title would probably make them about even with the Cardinal in the pecking order. Also, #9 Missouri is in a good position as they would play for the SEC title if they win out; it would be best for them to face and beat an undefeated Alabama team.

#6 Oregon and #8 Clemson are probably out of luck; there are no realistic paths to the BCS title game without a total carnage of losses from all teams considered here. And though these various 1-loss teams have a shot, it would at first require losses from at least 3 of the 4 undefeated teams. No 1-loss team—even Stanford—will finish ahead of any of the undefeated teams should they remain unblemished.

BCS at-large battle: Fresno State or Northern Illinois? Or neither?

Who has the upper hand? We now have Fresno State as more likely to finish undefeated, so that gives them the edge. If both teams finish undefeated, it's about a 50/50 proposition between the two (NIU would be ahead in the computers, Fresno in the polls). That's about a 5.2% chance, so each team adds 2.6% to its BCS at-large chances.

Fresno State going unbeaten while NIU takes a loss is about a 23% chance. And the Huskies winning out while the Bulldogs take a hit is about a 13.1% chance. So the final odds are

• Fresno State: 25.6%
• Northern Illinois: 15.7%
• Neither: 58.7%

So by far the most likely outcome, in our analysis, is that neither team reaches a BCS bowl as an automatic at-large team. And that doesn't even take into account the possibility that Central Florida might pass both teams, making the issue moot. The Knights are at #17, just two spots below Northern Illinois. It's possible that UCF could make a decent move in the human polls and overtake both undefeated teams; after all, they're still well below Louisville, whom they beat on the road. But for the purposes of this simulation we assume that an undefeated Fresno or NIU gets an at-large berth. What it does show is that if either team loses they probably have no chance, despite what Northern Illinois managed last year.

We'll do this again in a couple of weeks, maybe sooner if things get crazy and the 1-loss teams become more relevant.

Heisman Race, week 11: All Shook up

Exhibit A of why you never say "they should just hand him the Heisman right now" any time before the final week of the season: Oregon's loss to Stanford, which puts a big dent in Marcus Mariota's candidacy. The Oregon quarterback finished with fairly decent stats, but just like the final score they were misleading. The Ducks could do no right for 3 quarters, then battled back to make the game respectable. Mariota's 250 yards, 2 TDs, and no interceptions look pretty good, but his negative rushing yardage and fumble were costly in the loss. Mariota was hobbled with an injury, and if Oregon could have completed the miracle comeback from the dead he would have solidified his position at #1, but instead he drops to #3. Down, but not out.

Johnny Manziel reclaims the top spot he relinquished several weeks ago. The way he's playing he really could buck the odds to win a 2nd Heisman, but his knack for throwing interceptions—particularly in the red zone—are a drawback, and his team's 2 losses are a big negative when compared to new #2 Jameis Winston of Florida State. But without Manziel A&M would have at least 4 losses, while FSU sans Winston might still be undefeated. For at least this week, we go with the guy who threw 5 touchdown passes over the one who threw just 2 in his team's blowout win.

Jordan Lynch lost a bit of momentum by not playing last weekend and drops a spot to #4. He was starting to catch on a bit with voters and he'll have to pick that back up in a Wednesday night game. Similarly, Tajh Boyd of Clemson was rehabilitating his candidacy lately but was idle last weekend and holds at #5; he plays on Thursday night.

SportsRatings Week 11 Heisman Race

1. [up 1] Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M (8-2; beat Miss. State 51-41)
   LW:   30-39  76.9%  446yd  5TD  3int  14rsh   47yd 3.4av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 230-315 73.0% 3313yd 31TD 11int 110rsh  611yd 5.6av 8TD 1fmb
2. [up 2] Jameis Winston, QB Florida State (9-0; beat Wake Forest 59-3)
   LW:   17-28  60.7%  159yd  2TD  1int   3rsh    4yd 0.8av  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 166-240 69.2% 2661yd 26TD  7int  53rsh  157yd 3.0av  3TD 0fmb
3. [dn 2] Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (8-1; lost to Stanford 26-20)
   LW:   20-34  58.8%  250yd  2TD  0int   6rsh  -16yd  -3av  0TD 1fmb
   TOT: 164-259 63.3% 2531yd 22TD  0int  62rsh  495yd 8.0av  9TD 3.5fmb
4. [dn 1] Jordan Lynch, QB N. Illinois (9-0; idle)
   LW:  no game last week
   TOT: 164-258 63.6% 1871yd 19TD  5int 173rsh 1150yd 6.6av 12TD 1fmb 1recTD
5. Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson (8-1; idle)
   LW:  no game last week
   TOT: 192-292 65.8% 2620yd 20TD  6int 100rsh  194yd 1.9av  7TD 1fmb
6. Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville (8-1; beat UConn 31-10)
   LW:   21-37  56.8%  288yd  1TD 1int   7rsh   21yd 3.0av  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 200-280 71.4% 2845yd 24TD 3int  37rsh   40yd 1.1av  0TD 1fmb
7. Braxton Miller, QB Ohio State (9-0; idle)
   LW:  no game last week
   TOT: 108-149 72.5% 1316yd 15TD 3int  87rsh  410yd 4.7av  2TD 2fmb
8. [up 3] Bryce Petty, QB Baylor (8-0; beat Oklahoma 41-12)
   LW:   13-26  50.0%  204yd  3TD 0int  16rsh   45yd 2.8av  2TD 0fmb
   TOT: 135-202 66.8% 2657yd 21TD 1int  44rsh  118yd 2.7av  8TD 2fmb
9. Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon St (6-3; idle)
   LW:  no game last week
   TOT: 91rec 1344yd 14TD 0fmb; 23rsh 174yd 7.6av 2TD 0fmb  71retYd 0TD 1fmb
10. [dn 2] Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (7-2; beat BYU 27-17)
    LW:   19rsh   86yd 4.5av  0TD 0fmb; 0rec 0yd 0TD; 0retYd  0TD 0fmb
    TOT: 143rsh 1160yd 8.1av 11TD 0fmb; 1rec 5yd 0TD; 0retYd  0TD 0fmb
11. [dn 1] Aaron Murray, QB Georgia (6-3; beat Appalachian St 45-6)
    LW:   19-26  73.1%  281yd  2TD 1int   2rsh   24yd  12av  0TD 0fmb
    TOT: 174-275 63.3% 2477yd 20TD 7int  40rsh  118yd 3.0av  5TD 3fmb
12. Sean Mannion, QB Oregon St (6-3; idle)
    LW:  no game last week
    TOT: 296-436 67.9% 3540yd 31TD 6int  28rsh -174yd  -6av 0TD 2fmb
13. [up 2] A.J. McCarron, QB Alabama (9-0; beat LSU 38-17)
    LW:   14-20  70.0%  179yd  3TD 0int   3rsh   -2yd -0.7av 0TD 0fmb
    TOT: 159-229 69.4% 2041yd 19TD 3int  16rsh  -22yd -1.4av 0TD 0fmb
    
    out:
    
    
14. Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina
15. Marqise Lee, WR USC

#6 Teddy Bridgewater didn't have a great game against UConn and missed the chance to move up with Boyd idle. But Ohio State's Braxton Miller was idle, too, so he didn't add anything to his meager stats to justify putting him ahead of Bridgewater; he remains #7.

Baylor's Bryce Petty made a big move with the Bears' win over Oklahoma; it showed that Petty could excel against a strong defense. It's true that he only completed 50% of his attempts, but remember that Oklahoma has the #1 pass defense (per-game, adjusted for competition) in the nation. He still managed to throw three touchdown passes and run for two more. A 5-touchdown performance against Oklahoma? That makes his candidacy serious; he moves up three spots to #8 with several big-game opportunities left.

Petty leaps over the main non-quarterback candidates, Brandin Cooks and Melvin Gordon. Cooks was idle but he's still far and away the top receiver by yardage in the country. Wisconsin's Gordon, on the other hand, is slipping down the rushing chart and had another sub-100-yard game against BYU. Gordon falls 2 spots to #10 while Cooks remains at #9.

Georgia's Aaron Murray did okay against Appalachian State, an FBS team, but Petty passes him, too. He stays one spot ahead of Sean Mannion of Oregon State who was idle. Coming up behind them is Alabama's A.J. McCarron who led his team well against LSU. McCarron will stay in the race until the end if Alabama keeps winning.

Officially out of our race this week (but in reality, out many weeks ago) are Jadeveon Clowney and Marqise Lee, two candidate who started the year with a lot of hype but didn't come close to living up to it. We'll continue to eliminate two candidates each week until we have our final five and declare the winner.

Super Thursday: Oregon-Stanford, Oklahoma-Baylor Preview, Odds, and Predictions

Is Thursday's limited action more important than all of Saturday's in week 11 of college football? It sure could be, as Thursday features the BCS #3, #5, #6, and #10 teams the evening of November 7th. Oregon travels to Stanford in a top-5 matchup while another unbeaten, Baylor, hosts Oklahoma. Troy also plays Louisiana-Lafayette, just to be complete.

But of course it's the first two games that matter, and boy do they: Oregon is locked in a pitched battle for the all-important 2nd place in the BCS, while Stanford as the top 1-loss team would probably play for the BCS title if four of the five major undefeated teams lose. They can take care of one of them Thursday night and if Oklahoma beats Baylor the Cardinal will only need losses by two teams ahead of them.

Baylor would be in the same position with a win—needing either two or three more losses, and maybe just one since they'd pass Stanford and be neck and neck with Ohio State by the end of the season if they are unbeaten. Oklahoma is only the 5th-highest-ranked 1-loss team but beating Baylor would move them up in the pecking order and anything can happen in the final weeks.

So with all that in mind, here are Thursday's monster games:

 

Oregon (8-0) at Stanford (7-1)

Vegas line/spread: Oregon by 10 1/2
Strength power rating: Oregon 37, Stanford 26
Game-comparison % to win: Oregon 76%
Yardage Analysis: Oregon 37, Stanford 21

Breakdown: Oregon is a big favorite by the oddsmakers and an even bigger favorite by our metrics, not surprising given that the Ducks are #3 in the Strength power rating, ahead of even Alabama. Stanford is no slouch at #7 but there's a big gap. Oregon combines the #2 adjusted scoring offense with the #11 defense; Stanford is better on defense at #5 but their offense is shaky at #33.

This could be a repeat of last year's low-scoring game (a 17-14 Stanford overtime win), especially after DeAnthony Thomas suggested Oregon would score 40 points on the Cardinal, which should give the defense some locker-room fodder. A low score would give the Cardinal a better chance to win but is Stanford's offense up to the challenge? Neither their rushing (#37) nor passing game (#79) are elite, and Oregon counters with the #39 rushing and #18 passing defense.

On offense, of course, the Ducks are fantastic (#4 rushing, #20 passing) led by Marcus Mariota, who had a poor game against Stanford last season. Mariota's Heisman hopes rest on his redemption in this game. Stanford's D (#4 rushing, #17 passing) is a great match for Oregon's O so nothing will be too easy for the Ducks. But Oregon should have over 200 yards in both areas while Stanford should be just below 200 in both. Oregon may grind out a close win on the road, as Stanford did last year.

Final Prediction: Oregon 26, Stanford 21

 

Oklahoma (7-1) at Baylor (7-0)

Vegas line/spread: Baylor by 15
Strength power rating: Baylor 58, Oklahoma 24
Game-comparison % to win: Baylor 94%
Yardage Analysis: Baylor 61, Oklahoma 27

Breakdown: The question is, does Oklahoma have a chance? People who haven't followed college football this year closely might be shocked at the two-touchdown-plus spread for the Bears when both teams are in the top ten. But our power rating suggests that's on the conservative side, giving Baylor a crazy 34-point edge if both teams play the way they've played this year.

It comes down to this: every Baylor performance this season has been better than every Oklahoma performance. Even Baylor's tepid 35-25 road win over Kansas State narrowly tops anything Oklahoma has done, and the others blow it away. When you take apart the games and cross-combine offensive and defensive performances, Oklahoma still wins only 6% of the total comparisons.

Now, Oklahoma is ostensibly Baylor's toughest test to date, and sometimes "bully" teams like Baylor that beat up on poor competition hit a wall against good teams. It happened to some extent against Kansas State; the Bears scored half of what they normally do and gave up their 2nd-highest point total on defense. So one might expect Oklahoma to make it even closer.

But Oklahoma ranks only #34 in our Strength power rating (All-Division), lower than Kansas State (#23) and much lower than #1 Baylor. Oklahoma's balance of quality (#49 offense, #26 defense) is fairly similar to Kansas State (#46, #14), so expect them to mirror Kansas State's offensive success against Baylor's #29 (adjusted) scoring D. The comparison is more complicated for Oklahoma's defense; the Sooners are #1 against the pass, but just #68 against the run. While that's great for their hope of slowing down Bryce Petty, it's not good for their hopes of slowing down Lache Seastrunk and company. Kansas State succeeded mainly by stuffing the run (Seastrunk had 59 yards), not an approach that will likely work for the Sooners.

Unless Oklahoma can slow down both the run and pass, Baylor can run their offense with success. And the main ingredient in this game is home field advantage. The Bears have scored 69, 70, 70, 73, and 71 points when playing at home. It looks like too big of a job for Oklahoma to stop Baylor's running game, which should go for 300 yards and that success will lead Petty and the passing game to success. Oklahoma's own running game will keep them in it for some time but they don't have a passing game that can outplay Baylor's improved pass defense. We see the Bears pulling away for a big home victory; their real tests during the last month will be on the road when they face Oklahoma State and slumping TCU (a possible trap game).

Final Prediction: Baylor 48, Oklahoma 27

Heisman Race week 10: No change this week; Mariota, Petty face biggest tests Thursday

The Heisman front-runners were either in top form or idle last week, meaning there's no change to the top players this week. In fact the top nine stay the same from last week.

That means Marcus Mariota still tops our list after not playing last weekend. His Oregon teams takes on Stanford on Thursday on the road for the team's (and Mariota's) toughest test of the year. Stanford stifled the Oregon offense last year and two weeks ago harrassed Oregon State's Sean Mannion to the tune of 8 sacks. A good performance there (and a win) would further bolster Mariota's already strong claim to the trophy.

Johnny Manziel is becoming the guest that wouldn't leave when it comes to the Heisman. Already in possession of one trophy Manziel is making a good case for another, despite the two losses that should have disqualified him amidst the undefeated front-runners. Against UTEP Manziel accounted for 6 touchdowns, four through the air and two on the ground. He still needs a few other people to screw up if he wants to win it, but he's already practically guaranteed himself a repeat New York invite.

Jordan Lynch is another candidate that won't go away. His team's weak schedule makes a Heisman win all but impossible, but Lynch's performances are too good and others around the nation are starting to take notice. It could lead to a top-5 finish for Lynch. Right now we keep him at #3, with the understanding that he'll settle back in the coming weeks. But his third straight phenomenal game (this time four rushing TDs, and 1 passing TD) means the fade will have to wait.

Jameis Winston might have had the worst game of the front-runners, along with by far the best win. Winston had just one touchdown pass and two interceptions against Miami, but the Seminoles won 41-14 in their 2nd blowout of a top-ten team. If FSU wins out Winston will almost certainly pass Lynch and Manziel to compete with Mariota for the trophy. The next three weeks hold weak foes for FSU, so it will be an ideal time to match the big numbers Lynch and Manziel are putting up.

Tajh Boyd is still our #5 candidate. Written off after the FSU loss, Boyd broke the ACC record for career touchdowns against Virginia, throwing for three and rushing for another while completing 24 of 29 passes. #6 Teddy Bridgewater was idle and so had no opportunity to gain on Boyd for a potential New York invite.

SportsRatings Week 10 Heisman leaders

1. Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (8-0; no game last weekend)
   LW:  idle (no game)
   TOT: 144-225 64.0% 2281yd 20TD 0int  56rsh  511yd 9.1av  9TD 2.5fmb
2. Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M (7-2; beat UTEP 57-7)
   LW:   16-24  66.7%  273yd  4TD 0int   7rsh   67yd 9.6av 2TD 0fmb
   TOT: 200-276 72.5% 2867yd 26TD 8int  96rsh  564yd 5.9av 8TD 1fmb
3. Jordan Lynch, QB N. Illinois (9-0; beat UMass 63-19)
   LW:   10-13  76.9%  160yd  1TD 0int  17rsh  119yd 7.0av  4TD 0fmb
   TOT: 164-258 63.6% 1871yd 19TD 5int 173rsh 1150yd 6.6av 12TD 1fmb 1recTD
4. Jameis Winston, QB Florida State (8-0; beat Miami 41-14)
   LW:   21-29  72.4%  325yd  1TD 2int   6rsh   27yd 4.5av  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 149-212 70.3% 2502yd 24TD 6int  50rsh  153yd 3.1av  3TD 0fmb
5. Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson (8-1; beat Virginia 59-10)
   LW:   24-29  82.8%  377yd  3TD 1int   7rsh  -25yd  -4av  1TD 0fmb
   TOT: 192-292 65.8% 2620yd 20TD 6int 100rsh  194yd 1.9av  7TD 1fmb
6. Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville (7-1; no game last weekend)
   LW:   idle (no game)
   TOT: 179-243 73.7% 2557yd 23TD 2int  30rsh   19yd 0.6av  0TD 1fmb
7. Braxton Miller, QB Ohio State (9-0; beat Purdue 56-0)
   LW:   19-23  82.6%  233yd  4TD 1int   1rsh    7yd 7.0av  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 108-149 72.5% 1316yd 15TD 3int  87rsh  410yd 4.7av  2TD 2fmb
8. Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (6-2; beat Iowa 28-9)
   LW:   17rsh   62yd 3.6av  0TD 0fmb; 0rec 0yd 0TD; 0retYd  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 124rsh 1074yd 8.7av 11TD 0fmb; 1rec 5yd 0TD; 0retYd  0TD 0fmb
9. Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon St (6-3; lost to USC 31-14)
   LW:   6rec   88yd  1TD 0fmb;  2rsh  40yd  20av 0TD 0fmb   0retYd 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 91rec 1344yd 14TD 0fmb; 23rsh 174yd 7.6av 2TD 0fmb  71retYd 0TD 1fmb
10. [up 1] Aaron Murray, QB Georgia (5-3; beat Florida 23-20)
    LW:   16-25  64.0%  258yd  1TD 0int   6rsh    1yd 1.0av  0TD 1fmb
    TOT: 155-249 62.2% 2196yd 18TD 6int  38rsh   94yd 2.5av  5TD 3fmb
11. [up 1] Bryce Petty, QB Baylor (7-0; no game last weekend)
    LW:  idle (no game)
    TOT: 122-176 69.3% 2453yd 18TD 1int  28rsh   73yd 2.6av  6TD 2fmb
12. [dn 2] Sean Mannion, QB Oregon St (6-3; lost to USC 31-14)
    LW:   26-45  57.8%  277yd  1TD 3int   3rsh  -22yd  -7av 0TD 0fmb
    TOT: 296-436 67.9% 3540yd 31TD 6int  28rsh -174yd  -6av 0TD 2fmb
13. Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina (7-2; beat Miss. State 34-16)
    LW:   3 tackles 0 sacks + 0.0 tfl 1 pbu 0 int 0 ffmb 0 blocked kicks
    TOT: 27 tackles 2 sacks + 4.5 tfl 2 pbu 0 int 1 ffmb 0 blocked kicks
14. Marqise Lee, WR USC (6-3; beat Oregon State 31-14)
    LW:   5rec  105yd  1TD 0fmb;  0rsh   0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb   0retYD 0TD 0fmb
    TOT: 37rec  508yd  2TD 0fmb;  5rsh   1yd 0.2av 0TD 0fmb 145retYd 0TD 1fmb
15. A.J. McCarron, QB Alabama (8-0; no game last week)
    LW:  idle (no game)
    TOT: 145-209 69.4% 1862yd 16TD 3int  13rsh  -20yd -1.5av 0TD 0fmb

Braxton Miller had another solid game for Ohio State in their 56-0 blowout of Purdue. He went 19 of 23 for four touchdowns and 233 yards. Miller's overall stats are slight of course, and he needs to add 300 yards per game (and more than 7 rushing yards) to crack the contenders again. The Buckeyes are cruising and that's putting him back on the map, but not in serious contention.

Melvin Gordon had an off day against Iowa, averaging a pedestrian 3.6 yards per carry for 62 yards, dropping his overall average to an almost-human 8.7 ypc. Talk is shifting to Kadeem Carey as the nation's top back, with Lache Seastrunk getting notice, too.

But Gordon holds at #8 since the two below him, Oregon State's Brandin Cooks and Sean Mannion, both took a hit in the USC loss. Cooks had another sub-100 yard day receiving (1 TD) while Mannion threw three interceptions, matching his total for the year so far. The dynamic duo has been much less effective against strong defenses the last few weeks. Cooks holds at #9 and Mannion drops two spots to #11.

Moving up one are quarterbacks Aaron Murray and Bryce Petty. Murray's Georgia team held on to beat Florida while Petty's Baylor team was idle. This Thursday Baylor faces Oklahoma, the best pass defense they'll face all year. That could favor Seastrunk and hurt Petty if they run the ball more. But if Petty passes the test look for him to move up quickly as the Bears' schedule toughens.

Jadeveon Clowney and Marqise Lee hold steady as both had pretty decent games last week in wins. But look for the duo to be the first two eliminated next week as neither has had a great year. Newcomer A.J. McCarron of Alabama was idle last week; we chose McCarron over Derek Carr of also-undefeated Fresno State because, let's face it, Alabama is a lot better than the Bulldogs and deserves a representative more. He'll rise in the rankings as long as Alabama keeps winning and other candidates keep screwing up and eliminating themselves, but odds are vastly against McCarron winning the trophy.

Who will finish undefeated? Percentages for Alabama, Oregon, FSU, Ohio State, Baylor, and the rest

It seems like everyone is giving their percentages for the BCS title candidates to finish undefeated. We give ours and take it a step further by presenting the odds for all 8 remaining undefeated teams, including their projected conference championship game. Our odds differ quite a bit from the other experts, so ymmv.

ESPN's Chris Fallica puts the odds at:

• FSU: 54.7%
• Alabama: 54.3%
• Oregon: 45.5%
• Ohio State: 26.1%

And in another ESPN article, Brian Fremeau ranks all the undefeated teams by likelihood to finish the regular season (pre-conference championships) undefeated. He has Ohio State, FSU, and Alabama all at barely above 50%, followed by Fresno State, Baylor, Northern Illinois, Oregon, and in last place Miami at just 7.8%

Our take is based on the All-Division Strength power rating and our game-comparisons method, which takes all of a team's performances and compares them to their future opponents' performances to see how many which team would "win."

Here are the remaining undefeated teams as of October 30th and their odds to remain there:

1. Florida State Seminoles (80.5%)
   Miami         95%
   @WF           99%
   Syr           99%
   Idaho        100%
   @Florida      93%
   =Miami        93%
   ============= 80.5%
   
   Florida State ranks #2 in our current power rating (behind Baylor) and doesn't have a lot of challenges left. They may end up playing Miami twice but the 'Canes have looked very vulnerable to bad teams let alone good ones and rank just #24. #29 Florida is their only other real competition and the Gators have no offense. The end result? An 80% chance the Seminoles go undefeated, so they just need Oregon or Alabama to lose and they're in the BCS championship game.
   
   
2. Baylor Bears (68.4%)
   Oklahoma      95%   
   Texas Tech    96%
   @OK st        84%
   @TCU          93%
   Texas         96%
   ============  68.4%
   
   Baylor remains our #1 team (in all games, FCS and non-alike), and if they live up to that they should run the table. Their schedule is pretty tough, however, so they don't have nearly the likelihood of going unbeaten as FSU despite playing just 5 games (no conference championship). Oklahoma and Texas Tech rank just #34 and #35 and those games are at home, so Oklahoma State is the toughest hurdle. Even if Baylor wins out they'll need two of the four teams above them to lose. But with FSU the only other team above 50% odds to win out, that gives the Bears hope that they'll be part of a Big Twelve-ACC showdown in the BCS title game.
   
   
3. Oregon Ducks (46.6%)
   @Stanford     76%
   Utah          95%   
   @Arizona      87%
   OregonSt      94%
   ArizSt        79%
   ============  46.6%
   
   Oregon's next game is a showdown at Stanford, and games at Arizona and a projected Pac-12 title game vs. Arizona State (who ranks #5 in the current power rating) won't be easy. And Utah and Oregon State aren't pushovers. So despite being a solid #3 in our power rating, this whittle's Oregon's odds down below 50%, even as they are very clear favorites in every contest. If you believe the game-by-game outcome the Ducks are headed for the BCS Championship. If you look at the whole picture, the odds barely call for a slip-up somewhere along the line.
   
   
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (44.3%)
   @Purdue       99%
   @Ill          99%
   Indiana       86%
   @Michigan     71%
   =Mich St      74%
   ============  44.3%
   
   Ohio State's big win over Penn State moved them up to #6 in our power rating but they're still far behind the top teams. Purdue and Illinois shouldn't present any problem even on the road, but Indiana at home is not quite a gimme and Michigan on the road—and possibly Michigan State in Indianapolis—cut the Buckeyes down to below 50%. Even if the game-by-game results pan out and the Buckeyes are undefeated, they need two teams ahead of them in the BCS to lose—and for Baylor not to pass them. So their odds of making the BCS title game are considerably lower than their 44% chance to go undefeated.
   
   
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (39.7%)
   LSU            81%
   @MissSt        86%
   Chattanooga   100%
   @Auburn        78%
   =Missouri      73%
   =============  39.7%
   
   Unlike Ohio State, Alabama's odds of going undefeated exactly determine their odds of making the BCS championship game: if the Tide win out, they're in. The trouble is, they have a few stumbling blocks on the way there. At #4 in our ratings the Tide look to easily win each game but the cumulative odds work out to around a 40% chance of running the table through the SEC title game. They have a true "gimme" against Chattanooga but all the other teams—including a surprise Auburn and resilient Missouri (projected to win the East)—say that Alabama won't be repeating. It's close, though, and winning against LSU would put them nearly 50/50 already.
   
   
6. Northern Illinois Huskies (16.0%)
   @Mass        95%
   BallSt       59%
   @Toledo      44%
   WMich        98%
   Buffalo      66%
   ===========  16.0%
   
   With their schedule, NIU is playing not for a BCS title berth but a BCS bowl berth. It doesn't look like they'll get it as their odds of winning out are just 16% due to some very poor play in the early season. The Huskies rank just 59th in our power rating including a #117 defensive rank against all teams (FBS and otherwise). This makes them slight underdogs against Toledo, and Ball State and Buffalo (projected to win the MAC East) are close calls, too. Since Fresno State is projected to have a loss, too, this still might leave NIU in contention for a BCS bowl but the AAC will likely have a few 1-loss teams ahead of them, so going undefeated is their only realistic hope this year, despite last year's success as a 1-loss team.
   
   
7. Fresno State Bulldogs (10.4%)
   Nevada        77%
   @Wyoming      67%
   New Mexico    86%
   @San Jose St  57%
   Boise St      41%
   ============= 10.4%
   
   Fresno State doesn't have the MAC stigma of Northern Illinois, but they are only roughly as good as the Huskies. The Bulldogs have survived even closer scares this year, too, and we don't think they would survive the rematch with Boise State if it comes about in the MWC title game. Other tough games loom, too, against Wyoming and San Jose State in particular. Fresno State's offense is bona fide top 25 quality but their defense is terrible. Overall they have a 1 in 10 chance of finishing 12-0 (they lost a game due to the Colorado floods) but if they do they probably would become an at-large BCS bowl team.
   
   
8. Miami Hurricanes (0.1%)
   @FSU          5%
   VT           77%
   @Duke        58%
   Virginia     89%
   Pitt         76%
   =FSU          7%
   ============= 0.1%
   
   Miami has a shot at making the BCS title game. If they pull off another miracle "wide left" style game at FSU on Saturday they'd pass at least the Seminoles, Stanford, and Baylor to settle into fourth place; from there they'd need to win out and have two of the three teams ahead of them lose. Oh, and beat Florida State again in the ACC title game. At #24 in our rankings and coming off near-losses to North Carolina and Wake Forest, it just doesn't look likely. Beating FSU twice alone looks like a 1 in 286 proposition, and everything else makes it about a 1 in 1000 feat.
   
   

There you have it. Now, those are the odds to go undefeated; what are the odds of making the BCS title game? That would take some more figuring based on how many teams need to lose. We can get the number for FSU, Oregon, and Alabama pretty easily, and let's just approximate the others and we get the order like this:

1. Florida State: 65%
2. Oregon: 47%
3. Alabama: 40%
4. Baylor: ~25%
5. Ohio State: ~23%
6. NIU: ~0.0%
7. Fresno State: ~0.0%
8. Miami: ~0.0%

That adds up to 200% for two teams in the BCS title game. So it looks good for Florida State, with Oregon and Alabama next up, and Baylor and Ohio State needing help (and to take care of their own business). Note that this doesn't take into account chances of any current 1-loss team (Stanford, et al) if all or nearly all the undefeated contenders take a hit.