Heisman Race, week 12: Photo finish in store for Manziel, Winston?

With just a few weeks left in the season, the Heisman race is probably going to be determined by how Johnny Manziel plays in the next two games, and whether Bryce Petty can keep his team undefeated and winning big.

Manziel holds on to our #1 spot, but just barely, in an idle week. Jameis Winston is still coming on strong but a few things hold him back. One, his performance in FSU's 2nd straight 59-3 blowout was good but not great—he completed an amazing 19 of 21 passes but had negative rushing yardage and just 2 TDs. Fantastic for anyone else, but not quite enough to go from #2 to #1. Two, some issues from his past came up that could affect his candidacy. But no judgement on that until something concrete comes out. Three, and most important, his team is facing an extremely easy schedule as of late, and that doesn't look to change in the following weeks as the Seminoles face Idaho, Florida, and Duke. Not long ago it looked like Florida was a big test and that they'd rematch Miami; now the Gators have a losing record and while the Blue Devils beat the Hurricanes, they don't command the same cachet.

That's why the play of Manziel, who faces LSU next and Missouri the week after, may determine Winston's Heisman fate. Winning both those games will be tough for A&M and dropping one probably eliminates Manziel. Then, Winston has a weekend where Manziel doesn't play to seal the deal...or convince voters he should be in front despite any news that might come out.

Meanwhile Marcus Mariota showed what he would look like if he weren't a dual-threat quarterback, and his numbers looked a lot like standard-issue Teddy Bridgewater, with nearly 300 yards and 3 TDs, and negative rushing yardage. If both the top two mess up big time—or Winston's issue yields unpleasant news—Mariota is still around as a viable alternative; his Stanford performance can be somewhat excused by his injuries, which flattened his usual rushing prowess for a 2nd straight game.

Jordan Lynch and Tajh Boyd both put in great performances, showing that they're worthy of a New York invite. Lynch completed 81% for 345 yards and had 2 passing and 2 rushing TDs against a formerly 9-1 team. Boyd completed 77% for 340 yards and 4 TDs with 1 rushing TD against a solid Georgia Tech. Overall the top five doesn't change as all of the candidates are deserving and didn't slip at all.

1. Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M (8-2; idle last week)
   LW:  no game
   TOT: 230-315 73.0% 3313yd 31TD 11int 110rsh  611yd 5.6av  8TD 1fmb
2. Jameis Winston, QB Florida State (10-0; beat Syracuse 59-3)
   LW:   19-21  90.5%  277yd  2TD  0int   5rsh  -12yd  -2av  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 185-261 70.9% 2938yd 28TD  7int  58rsh  145yd 2.5av  3TD 0fmb
3. Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (9-1; beat Utah 44-21)
   LW:   19-26  73.1%  288yd  3TD  0int   4rsh  -18yd  -5av  0TD   0fmb
   TOT: 183-285 64.2% 2819yd 25TD  0int  66rsh  477yd 7.2av  9TD 3.5fmb
4. Jordan Lynch, QB N. Illinois (10-0; beat Ball State 48-27)
   LW:   26-32  81.3%  345yd  2TD  0int  20rsh  123yd 6.2av  2TD 0fmb
   TOT: 190-290 65.5% 2216yd 21TD  5int 193rsh 1273yd 6.6av 14TD 1fmb 1recTD
5. Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson (9-1; beat Georgia Tech 55-31)
   LW:   20-26  76.9%  340yd  4TD  1int  15rsh   43yd 2.9av  1TD 0fmb
   TOT: 212-318 66.7% 2960yd 24TD  7int 115rsh  237yd 2.1av  8TD 1fmb
6. [up 2] Bryce Petty, QB Baylor (9-0; beat Texas Tech 60-34)
   LW:   17-31  54.8%  335yd  3TD 0int   9rsh    9yd 1.0av  2TD 1fmb
   TOT: 152-233 65.2% 2992yd 24TD 1int  53rsh  127yd 2.4av 10TD 3fmb
7. Braxton Miller, QB Ohio State (10-0; beat Illinois 60-35)
   LW:   13-29  44.8%  150yd  2TD 0int  16rsh  184yd  12av  1TD 1fmb
   TOT: 121-178 68.0% 1466yd 17TD 3int 103rsh  594yd 5.8av  3TD 3fmb
8. [dn 2] Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville (9-1; beat Houston 20-13)
   LW:   19-29  65.5%  203yd  0TD 0int   4rsh  -20yd  -5av  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 219-309 70.9% 3048yd 24TD 3int  41rsh   20yd 0.5av  0TD 1fmb
9. [up 1] Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (8-2; beat Indiana 51-3)
   LW:   13rsh  146yd  11av  1TD 0fmb; 0rec 0yd 0TD 0retYD  0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 156rsh 1306yd 8.4av 12TD 0fmb; 1rec 5yd 0TD 0retYd  0TD 0fmb
10. [dn 1] Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon St (6-4; lost to Arizona State 30-17)
    LW:    9rec   99yd  0TD 0fmb  2rsh  11yd 5.5av 0TD 0fmb   1retYD 0TD 1fmb
    TOT: 100rec 1443yd 14TD 0fmb 25rsh 185yd 7.4av 2TD 0fmb  72retYd 0TD 2fmb
11. [up 2] A.J. McCarron, QB Alabama (10-0; beat Miss St 20-7)
    LW:   18-32  56.3%  187yd  2TD 2int   3rsh   12yd  4.0av 0TD 0fmb
    TOT: 177-261 67.8% 2228yd 21TD 5int  19rsh  -10yd -0.5av 0TD 0fmb
    
    out:
    
    
12. Aaron Murray, QB Georgia
13. Sean Mannion, QB Oregon St
14. Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina
15. Marqise Lee, WR USC

But the top five might have to make room for Baylor's Bryce Petty. His Bears are 9-0 now and his stats are great. Moreso, his play against the tougher teams lately has been just as good, justifying a higher ranking that a "system quarterback" facing easy competition previously didn't deserve. He again had a lower completion percentage than normal but accounted for 5 total touchdowns. His overall stats run roughshod over Ohio State's Braxton Miller, whom he moves past while jumping from #8 to #6. Miller, however, has nothing to be ashamed of with his 184 yard rushing performance against Illinois. In fact, we move him ahead of Teddy Bridgewater, whose team has a loss. Bridgewater has 20 rushing yards on the year and these days if a quarterback has that he'd better throw for 5,000 yards (or lead the #1 team—see A.J. McCarron). Louisville's schedule is soft so there's really not much Bridgewater can do to break into the top five without disastrous games from those ahead of him. Bridgewater falls two spots to #8 while Miller holds at #7 for the umpteenth week.

Melvin Gordon is up one spot to #9 after a 146 yard performance that comes a little too late. He was just the 2nd leading rusher on his team against Indiana, and is down to 9th in the nation (fyi, Jordan Lynch is 10th). Seeing B.C.'s Andre Williams go for 339 yards didn't help matters, either. While Brandin Cooks still leads the nation in receiving, his team took its fourth loss and he hasn't been as spectacular lately. Both of the non-quarterback candidates are probably out after next week, barring a major unexpected development such as an Alabama loss. That's what it would take to knock A.J. McCarron out, even as he still brings up the rear this week. He played an uncharacteristically poor game against Mississippi State but 'Bama won and is still #1. So even if McCarron isn't the "best player on the best team" he's certainly the "leader of the top-ranked team."

Aaron Murray and Sean Mannion can't say that, as both Georgia and Oregon State suffered their fourth losses. For Murray it was a raw deal; after leading a 21-point 4th-quarter comeback he saw his team lose to Auburn on a fluke play they could have averted with sound defenes. In contrast Mannion has faced three tough defenses and done poorly against all of them, including 4 interceptions in the loss to Arizona State. Both drop from our active rankings this week.