Sometimes power ratings are weird, and do unexpected things. Today we have a case in point.
Normally even the "odd" things—such as Alabama not being #1 in a margin-of-victory-based power rating—can be explained until it makes some mathematical sense at least, even if one disagrees or it doesn't seem to reflect reality. Oregon and Baylor's other game performances were so otherworldly that even getting blown out this weekend didn't drop them below the Tide when all the games are averaged.
But in today's update of the All-Division Power Rating—which normally behaves itself very well in naturally segregating the Divisions based on quality—took a turn for the bizarre as Minnesota-Mankato's rating doubled from last week and the Mavericks moved into the #29 spot among ALL teams in the nation.
# Team rec Rating Offense[rnk] Defense[rnk]
26. Oklahoma 9-2 57.23 54.48 [ 48] -2.74 [ 20]
27. Louisville 10-1 56.90 53.63 [ 50] -3.27 [ 18]
28. Utah St 7-4 56.67 52.36 [ 59] -4.30 [ 15]
29. Minn St-Mankato 11-0 56.16 57.18 [ 34] 1.01 [ 39]
30. North Carolina 6-5 55.17 55.98 [ 40] 0.81 [ 38]
31. North Dakota St 11-0 54.84 52.47 [ 58] -2.37 [ 22]
32. Mississippi 7-4 54.68 54.04 [ 49] -0.64 [ 30]
33. Boise St 7-4 54.66 57.34 [ 32] 2.68 [ 47]
Perfectly logical, right? - this week's All-division power rating, #26 to #33
What's odd is they didn't even play a game. The boost seems to be based on Minnesota-Duluth's 55-13 win over Emporia State. This amazingly pushed Duluth to #42, and pushed Mankato—the only team to beat Duluth this year—even higher.
The All-Division power rating has never had the so-called "Mount Union" problem where teams that dominate lower divisions rank high when in the mix of all teams. When the power rating is executed, Mount Union often starts near the top but quickly bubbles their way down in the 100s or 200s (this week they are #238). The problem is unofficially named for Mount Union because of the team's usual dominance in Division III.
This year it seems there isn't quite enough interplay between Division II and the FCS to keep the Division II teams completely in line—or there isn't enough interplay between the Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference and other Division II teams to create a pecking order, so that one game can have an outsized effect.
It wouldn't be so unusual if the condition had existed all season, but it suddenly appeared this week. Not after Mankato beat Upper Iowa 72-6, but the week after. Northwest Missouri State was far and away #1 last week in our Division II-only ratings before this "change of guard" took place. A "tipping point" was apparently reached by Duluth's big win in the opening playoff round (St. Cloud's win over Henderson State added to it) and both Minnesota teams were off to the races. Why they bothered to stop where they did, I don't know. Apparently there is a little bit of "gravity" that kept them from breaching the top 25.
So instead of being a 10-point favorite in the playoffs by our power ratings, Northwest Missouri is a 10+ point underdog just one week later. That's not an update that makes sense. Teams don't get 20+ points better or worse in one week, especially when they didn't play a game. The comparison between Duluth and Emporia—a 55-13 game—must have been one of the few games—maybe the only game—situating the NSIC teams among their peers. There's the chance that it's an accurate re-appraisal of the teams (after all Mankato is #1 in the polls) but judging by its effect against other teams in the nation, I'm suspicious.
Interestingly the Bearcats play Minnesota-Duluth in their first-round playoff game...if they whip the Bulldogs, that will in turn bring Duluth and Mankato's ratings back to earth, while a narrow win would partially restore order. Meanwhile Mankato plays St. Cloud, who ranks a pumped-up #64 due to the same effect; if Mankato wins there, they would then face Northwest Missouri State. And that game is just to get to the Final Four!
It might be up to the other teams in the Division II Final Four to make some sense out of this nonsense. But for now, let's just say our money is on the team that emerges from the bracket in question to win it all. Last week Northwest Missouri State looked like a great bet, now the Minnesota teams' ratings are on steroids. And what's really odd is that Mankato is a 2-seed in the bracket, and they're ranked #1 in the D-II polls...thereby putting the #1 and #2 team (NW Missouri) in the same bracket. Wtf, D-II?
Hopefully the effect that bloated Mankato's rating will disperse, but it's also possible that someone from Division II ends the season ranked silly-high. Meaning, ranked ahead of North Dakota State, which is ridiculous. The FCS teams have so many comparisons to the FBS that their highest-ranked team usually deserves to be where they are. It looks like Division II isn't being held in check—at least, not this week. Was the sudden revision a bizarre fluke, or does it show the Minnesota teams are really the ones to beat? Stay tuned!
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