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It seems like everyone is giving their percentages for the BCS title candidates to finish undefeated. We give ours and take it a step further by presenting the odds for all 8 remaining undefeated teams, including their projected conference championship game. Our odds differ quite a bit from the other experts, so ymmv.
ESPN's Chris Fallica puts the odds at:
- FSU: 54.7%
- Alabama: 54.3%
- Oregon: 45.5%
- Ohio State: 26.1%
And in another ESPN article, Brian Fremeau ranks all the undefeated teams by likelihood to finish the regular season (pre-conference championships) undefeated. He has Ohio State, FSU, and Alabama all at barely above 50%, followed by Fresno State, Baylor, Northern Illinois, Oregon, and in last place Miami at just 7.8%
Our take is based on the All-Division Strength power rating and our game-comparisons method, which takes all of a team's performances and compares them to their future opponents' performances to see how many which team would "win."
Here are the remaining undefeated teams as of October 30th and their odds to remain there:
- Florida State Seminoles (80.5%)
Miami 95%
@WF 99%
Syr 99%
Idaho 100%
@Florida 93%
=Miami 93%
============= 80.5%
Florida State ranks #2 in our current power rating (behind Baylor) and doesn't have a lot of challenges left. They may end up playing Miami twice but the 'Canes have looked very vulnerable to bad teams let alone good ones and rank just #24. #29 Florida is their only other real competition and the Gators have no offense. The end result? An 80% chance the Seminoles go undefeated, so they just need Oregon or Alabama to lose and they're in the BCS championship game. - Baylor Bears (68.4%)
Oklahoma 95%
Texas Tech 96%
@OK st 84%
@TCU 93%
Texas 96%
============ 68.4%
Baylor remains our #1 team (in all games, FCS and non-alike), and if they live up to that they should run the table. Their schedule is pretty tough, however, so they don't have nearly the likelihood of going unbeaten as FSU despite playing just 5 games (no conference championship). Oklahoma and Texas Tech rank just #34 and #35 and those games are at home, so Oklahoma State is the toughest hurdle. Even if Baylor wins out they'll need two of the four teams above them to lose. But with FSU the only other team above 50% odds to win out, that gives the Bears hope that they'll be part of a Big Twelve-ACC showdown in the BCS title game. - Oregon Ducks (46.6%)
@Stanford 76%
Utah 95%
@Arizona 87%
OregonSt 94%
ArizSt 79%
============ 46.6%
Oregon's next game is a showdown at Stanford, and games at Arizona and a projected Pac-12 title game vs. Arizona State (who ranks #5 in the current power rating) won't be easy. And Utah and Oregon State aren't pushovers. So despite being a solid #3 in our power rating, this whittle's Oregon's odds down below 50%, even as they are very clear favorites in every contest. If you believe the game-by-game outcome the Ducks are headed for the BCS Championship. If you look at the whole picture, the odds barely call for a slip-up somewhere along the line. - Ohio State Buckeyes (44.3%)
@Purdue 99%
@Ill 99%
Indiana 86%
@Michigan 71%
=Mich St 74%
============ 44.3%
Ohio State's big win over Penn State moved them up to #6 in our power rating but they're still far behind the top teams. Purdue and Illinois shouldn't present any problem even on the road, but Indiana at home is not quite a gimme and Michigan on the road—and possibly Michigan State in Indianapolis—cut the Buckeyes down to below 50%. Even if the game-by-game results pan out and the Buckeyes are undefeated, they need two teams ahead of them in the BCS to lose—and for Baylor not to pass them. So their odds of making the BCS title game are considerably lower than their 44% chance to go undefeated. - Alabama Crimson Tide (39.7%)
LSU 81%
@MissSt 86%
Chattanooga 100%
@Auburn 78%
=Missouri 73%
============= 39.7%
Unlike Ohio State, Alabama's odds of going undefeated exactly determine their odds of making the BCS championship game: if the Tide win out, they're in. The trouble is, they have a few stumbling blocks on the way there. At #4 in our ratings the Tide look to easily win each game but the cumulative odds work out to around a 40% chance of running the table through the SEC title game. They have a true "gimme" against Chattanooga but all the other teams—including a surprise Auburn and resilient Missouri (projected to win the East)—say that Alabama won't be repeating. It's close, though, and winning against LSU would put them nearly 50/50 already. - Northern Illinois Huskies (16.0%)
@Mass 95%
BallSt 59%
@Toledo 44%
WMich 98%
Buffalo 66%
=========== 16.0%
With their schedule, NIU is playing not for a BCS title berth but a BCS bowl berth. It doesn't look like they'll get it as their odds of winning out are just 16% due to some very poor play in the early season. The Huskies rank just 59th in our power rating including a #117 defensive rank against all teams (FBS and otherwise). This makes them slight underdogs against Toledo, and Ball State and Buffalo (projected to win the MAC East) are close calls, too. Since Fresno State is projected to have a loss, too, this still might leave NIU in contention for a BCS bowl but the AAC will likely have a few 1-loss teams ahead of them, so going undefeated is their only realistic hope this year, despite last year's success as a 1-loss team. - Fresno State Bulldogs (10.4%)
Nevada 77%
@Wyoming 67%
New Mexico 86%
@San Jose St 57%
Boise St 41%
============= 10.4%
Fresno State doesn't have the MAC stigma of Northern Illinois, but they are only roughly as good as the Huskies. The Bulldogs have survived even closer scares this year, too, and we don't think they would survive the rematch with Boise State if it comes about in the MWC title game. Other tough games loom, too, against Wyoming and San Jose State in particular. Fresno State's offense is bona fide top 25 quality but their defense is terrible. Overall they have a 1 in 10 chance of finishing 12-0 (they lost a game due to the Colorado floods) but if they do they probably would become an at-large BCS bowl team. - Miami Hurricanes (0.1%)
@FSU 5%
VT 77%
@Duke 58%
Virginia 89%
Pitt 76%
=FSU 7%
============= 0.1%
Miami has a shot at making the BCS title game. If they pull off another miracle "wide left" style game at FSU on Saturday they'd pass at least the Seminoles, Stanford, and Baylor to settle into fourth place; from there they'd need to win out and have two of the three teams ahead of them lose. Oh, and beat Florida State again in the ACC title game. At #24 in our rankings and coming off near-losses to North Carolina and Wake Forest, it just doesn't look likely. Beating FSU twice alone looks like a 1 in 286 proposition, and everything else makes it about a 1 in 1000 feat.
There you have it. Now, those are the odds to go undefeated; what are the odds of making the BCS title game? That would take some more figuring based on how many teams need to lose. We can get the number for FSU, Oregon, and Alabama pretty easily, and let's just approximate the others and we get the order like this:
- Florida State: 65%
- Oregon: 47%
- Alabama: 40%
- Baylor: ~25%
- Ohio State: ~23%
- NIU: ~0.0%
- Fresno State: ~0.0%
- Miami: ~0.0%
That adds up to 200% for two teams in the BCS title game. So it looks good for Florida State, with Oregon and Alabama next up, and Baylor and Ohio State needing help (and to take care of their own business). Note that this doesn't take into account chances of any current 1-loss team (Stanford, et al) if all or nearly all the undefeated contenders take a hit.
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