Week 7 has some great games as the college football season is really in full swing. Here we'll preview a half dozen of the best the week has to offer. Since we're right in the midst of transitioning from our modified pre-season ratings to the All-Division Strength power rating, we'll give the score margin predictions for both, along with predictions based on yardage analysis. And of course we'll add our own summary prediction which adds a healthy dose of gut feeling.
Missouri (5-0) at Georgia (4-1)
Modified: Georgia by 3
Strength: Georgia 36, Missouri 34 (Georgia 60% chance to win, 33% vs. spread)
Yardage: Georgia 49, Missouri 24 (Georgia leads passing yards 384 to 237)
Line/Spread: Georgia by 7 1/2
Much was made about Georgia's early schedule (the "gauntlet") where they took on three top ten teams and won two of three. Supposedly they had a bit of a breather coming after that, but Tennessee was anything but. Missouri looks much better than Tennessee, and they're nearly a top ten team themselves if the Strength power rating can be believed. They rank one spot higher there and two spots higher in our last Bayesian modified rating; in each case, however, home field advantage keeps the Bulldogs on top, and using yardage to determine a score makes Georgia a huge favorite. That should make us lean toward Georgia but our gut says the Bulldogs are a tired, hurt team (missing 2 RBs and 2 WRs) while Missouri is hungry to make the college football world pay attention to them again, hence the upset pick.
Final Prediction: Missouri 34, Georgia 22
Oklahoma (5-0) vs. Texas (3-2)
Modified: Oklahoma by 11
Strength: Okahoma 35, Texas 21 (Oklahoma 82% to win, 50.5% vs. spread)
Yardage: Oklahoma 51, Texas 24 (Oklahoma 345 rushing yards, Texas 145)
Line/Spread: Oklahoma by 13 1/2
Here's another game where the spread by the yardage analysis is far removed from the margin via our score-based power ratings. The big thing there is rushing yardage, where Oklahoma's #13 adjusted rushing offense is facing Texas' #119 rushing defense. Texas couldn't stop BYU on the ground and Blake Bell is behind center for the Sooners; the only question seems to be whether the Sooners get a blowout or just a win.
Final Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Texas 24
Northwestern (4-1) at Wisconsin (3-2)
Modified: Wisconsin by 11
Strength: Wisconsin 33, Northwestern 20 (Wisconsin 90% to win, 63% vs. spread)
Yardage: Wisconsin 39, Northwestern 21 (leads rushing and passing by 70 yards each)
Line/Spread: Wisconsin by 10
Both these teams gave Ohio State a good run for the money playing at home but came up short. Wisconsin has had a week to think about it while Northwestern's wounds are still fresh. You could argue that the Wildcats have proven to themselves they can compete with the big boys, but their loss might have been more emotional and therefore worse. I think Wisconsin wins this game but Northwestern's defense is decent against the run which should keep things from getting out of control.
Final Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Northwestern 17
Florida (4-1) at LSU (5-1)
Modified: LSU by 13
Strength: LSU 31, Florida 21 (LSU 81% to win, 54% vs. spread)
Yardage: Florida 26, LSU 10 (LSU 23 rushing yards, 241 passing; Florida ~200 yards each)
Line/Spread: LSU by 7
One of the more interesting of the high-profile SEC matchups, LSU has discovered their offense (specifically, the ability to pass the ball) while Florida's scoring defense ranks #1. With the Tigers at home that translates to a 10-point LSU win in our Strength power rating, but the yardage numbers are totally different. There, Florida's rushing defense is so strong that they can hold LSU (#54 rushing offense) to under 25 yards for the game. And Florida's offense can actually score since LSU's defense has had some trouble this year. Though we know for sure the Gators' rushing D is overrated at this point (they probably are #1, but not by a 50-yard margin), we're going with the upset here, since people are getting complacent thinking the SEC pecking order has already been determined.
Final Prediction: Florida 23, LSU 21
Baylor (4-0) at Kansas State (2-3)
Modified: Baylor by 22
Strength: Baylor 66, Kansas State 33 (Baylor 99% to win, 84% vs. spread)
Yardage: Baylor 73, Kansas State 20 (Baylor 419 passing, 358 rushing, 777 total)
Line/Spread: Baylor by 17 1/2 (over/under 73 1/2)
This game is interesting simply because of Baylor's involvement. How long will their string of 70-point games continue? The Strength power rating has them coming up a few points short, but the yardage numbers say they'll make it. The win margin estimates are 22, 33, and 43 while the line is 17 1/2. The question is, is Kansas State the team to stop them? Their defense ranks 41st in scoring and 23rd in yardage, more formidable than what Baylor has faced but not elite. At some point Baylor should hit the wall Houston did in 1989; that team went to Texas A&M a 27 point favorite in our Strength rating (48-21) and lost 17-13 when A&M used a 1-5-5 to stop the Cougars' Air Raid attack. Is there a scheme that can beat Baylor in the same way? Note that the Bears use the run as much or more than the pass, so making them one-dimensional will be tough. A better bet might be trying to keep up in the shootout; K-State can't do that but it could make easy work of the over/under.
Final Prediction: Baylor 70, Kansas State 49
Oregon (5-0) at Washington (4-1)
Modified: Oregon by 16
Strength: Oregon 35, Washington 28 (Oregon 72% to win, 35% vs. spread)
Yardage: Washington 42, Oregon 35 (Washington 300 passing yards, Oregon 250 rushing)
Line/Spread: Oregon by 13 1/2
This one has similarities to the Northwestern-Wisconsin game, with Washington coming off a close, emotional loss and having to face a tough foe. The difference is that they're at home and the foe their facing might be tougher than the last one. How will the Huskies respond? More than anything this is a great test for Oregon, who demolished four mid-to-poor-level BCS teams (Virginia, Cal, Tennessee, Colorado) by a combined 230-56. Washington is a different animal, ranking #4 in the Strength power rating where Oregon is #3. Home field doesn't quite cover the big gap in rating differential however, so the Ducks are a 7-point favorite there. Looking at yardage gives Washington the edge, however, by the same margin, so look for the Ducks to be tested. Washington ranks as the #2 defense but don't look for them to be able to shut down Oregon; they'll keep up on offense while keeping Mariota and company from running away with it.
Final Prediction: Oregon 42, Washington 35
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