We've already learned a few things from week 6. On thursday we got further confirmation that Texas is much worse than last year's team, as they needed some very questionable calls to come out of Iowa State with a 31-30 win. Ditto for Louisiana-Monroe, who was dominated by Western Kentucky 31-10. Those have been two of the most disappointing teams in the nation.
On the flip side, Utah continued to prove itself, losing just 34-27 to a good UCLA team. Despite two close losses, the Utes are much better than the middling team we projected in August.
Friday night's games should tell us something about BYU and Utah State. The Cougars have been up and down and their win over Texas doesn't look as impressive anymore. Utah State has outperformed in most games but most of the teams on their schedule don't look as good as they did pre-season. Both schools lost to Utah in close contests.
Saturday's games will answer even more questions, or at least provide additional information. Here are the top ten questions that Saturday's action will (help) answer. We compare their pre-season ranking with their updated (Modified) ranking, and their current, unbiased Strength power rating rank.
- Is Baylor the best team in the nation?
Team Pre-season Modified Strength PR
W. Virginia (3-2) #73 #80 #68
@Baylor (3-0) #28 #2 #1
Baylor could be the nation's best team. Or they could be a great pretender. It's hard to say when they've played just 3 games against poor competition. West Virginia's upset of Oklahoma State makes them a legitimate test for the Bears, who remained #1 in our All-Division Strength power rating last week. While foe ULM continued to fade, Buffalo's 41-12 win over UConn kept Baylor's rating sky-high. Will the Bears falter, or capture the #1 spot in our final Modified rankings? Given the spread predicted from the recent rankings, it will take a lot to live up to their early performances, but the Mountaineers did lose 37-0 to Maryland.
Pre-season Prediction: Baylor by 18
Modified Prediction: Baylor by 42
Strength power rating: Baylor by 51 (67-16)
Vegas line/spread: Baylor by 28 1/2 - How bad is Notre Dame?
Team Pre-season Modified Strength PR
Arizona St (3-1) #8 #12 #13
@Notre Dame(3-2) #22 #42 #90
No doubt, Notre Dame hasn't lived up to our #22 pre-season ranking—even though we rated them lower than most prognosticators, they've underperformed in every game so far by our numbers. It's been enough to knock them down to #42, but the unbiased Strength power rating sits them at an abysmal #90! Many of their opponents—Michigan and Purdue for certain—haven't done well which drags the Irish down. Which ranking is closer to the truth, #42 or #90? Arizona State visits and they've been fairly stable so far; how well the Irish do here will give a big hint as to whether they will be returning to the top 25 this season. If they're really a well-below-average team (#90), expect them to lose to ASU by three touchdowns; a 10-point loss suggests a #42 ranking is correct, while an upset win means a return to the top 25 could be imminent.
Pre-season Prediction: Arizona State by 6
Modified Prediction: Arizona State by 10
Strength power rating: Arizona State by 24 (52-28)
Vegas line/spread: Arizona State by 5 1/2 - How good is Maryland?
Team Pre-season Modified Strength PR
Maryland (4-0) #72 #35 #20
@FSU (4-0) #9 #5 #3
Maryland has overperformed consistently this year, moving from a pessimistic #72 all the way to #35 in our modified rankings. Further, their unbiased Strength rating is #20. They travel to Florida State to get a test of how good they really might be. Did they just catch West Virginia at their worst when they beat the Mountaineers 37-0? And foes FIU and UConn have been terrible, so can we say beating those teams means anything? One thing's for sure: a road win over FSU means Maryland is for real. And if they lose we still learn something; even falling by 2 touchdowns suggests they're legitimately a top 25 team.
Pre-season Prediction: FSU by 27
Modified Prediction: FSU by 19
Strength power rating: FSU by 19 (36-17)
Vegas line/spread: FSU by 16 1/2 - Who is better, Washington or Stanford?
Team Pre-season Modified Strength PR
Washington(4-0) #12 #19 #4
@Stanford (4-0) #19 #8 #7
Our pre-season rankings contained some surprises, one of which was Washington at #12, seven spots ahead of Stanford. Since then, on-field performance has essentially made the teams trade places in our modified rankings, but not in the unbiased Strength ratings which consider this game to be #4 vs. #7! Why has Washington's ranking dropped in our modified ratings if they've done well enough to be #4 in Strength? Basically it's the Illinois game, which the Huskies won by just 10 points. The Modified ratings considered it a game against the #108 team (Illinois' pre-season ranking) so it dragged Washington down. The Illini have been far, far better than that. Is Washington really a top five team? If so they should beat Stanford or at least come very close.
Pre-season Prediction: Stanford by 2
Modified Prediction: Stanford by 9
Strength power rating: Washington by 3 (27-24)
Vegas line/spread: Stanford by 7 1/2 - Who is worse, Florida International or Southern Miss?
Team Pre-season Modified Strength PR
FIU (0-4) #121 #125 #214 (of 752)
@S. Miss (0-4) #115 #118 #187 (of 752)
In one corner: Southern Miss, 0-12 last year, 0-4 this year and doing worse than our pre-season #115 ranking. In the other corner: Florida International, 0-4 so far this year, projected to be the #121 team in the FBS and playing like the #125 team (dead last). Both rank below scads of lower-division teams so far in the All-Division Strength power rating. Both teams have underperformed, so since Southern Miss ranks higher and plays at home we expect the Golden Eagles' long losing streak to be snapped by beating the Golden Panthers.
Pre-season Prediction: Southern Miss by 12
Modified Prediction: Southern Miss by 16
Strength power rating: Southern Miss by 8 (32-24)
Vegas line/spread: Southern Miss by 17 - Playing at home, shouldn't Auburn beat Mississippi?
Team Pre-season Modified Strength PR
Mississippi (3-1) #11 #15 #48
@Auburn (3-1) #51 #39 #26
There's a big discrepancy between Ole Miss's modified pre-season ranking and their unbiased Strength ranking: are they the #15 team in the nation or just #48? Whether or not they can beat Auburn on the road will tell us which is correct. The Bulldogs started at #11 in our rankings but struggled to a 31-13 win over terrible Southeastern Missouri State, and their big win over Texas can't be considered "big" anymore. Auburn has played well this year, outperforming slightly in each game to rise to #39 (and #26 in Strength). Vegas is not convinced Auburn is the better team even at home, so I guess we're picking an upset here.
Pre-season Prediction: Mississippi by 14
Modified Prediction: Mississippi by 6
Strength power rating: Auburn by 10 (29-19)
Vegas line/spread: Mississippi by 3 - Big Ten Question #1: Is Illinois the 3rd best team in the conference, or 10th best?
Team Pre-season Modified Strength PR
Illinois (3-1) #108 #59 #25
@Nebraska (3-1) #41 #44 #39
In our pre-season rankings, Illinois was dead last in the Big Ten, and by quite a bit. Since then they've proven us wrong game after game, rising to #59 even with 1/3 of their rating still being determined by their pre-season gloom. Moreover, their Strength ranking of #25 suggests they could be even better still. At #59 they're still the #10 team in the Big Ten, but a #25 ranking puts them at #3 behind just Ohio State and Wisconsin. Nebraska has been a fairly solid barameter so far, ranking anywhere from #39 to #44. Both have a single loss to an undefeated Pac-12 team, Nebraska falling at home to UCLA 41-21 and Illinois losing at home to Washington 24-14. If Illinois can beat Nebraska in Lincoln then it's fairly certain they're one of the top teams in the conference. A close loss leaves things up in the air as to how the Illini fit into the conference race. Though Vegas likes the Modified ratings' prediction, looking at Illinois' games so far—even the loss to Washington—we call for a 1-point Illini shootout win to shake things up.
Pre-season Prediction: Nebraska by 24
Modified Prediction: Nebraska by 8
Strength power rating: Illinois by 1 (43-42)
Vegas line/spread: Nebraska by 8 1/2 - Big Ten Question #2: Is Michigan really any good?
Team Pre-season Modified Strength PR
Minnesota (4-1) #63 #67 #82
@Michigan (4-0) #15 #28 #66
Michigan is 4-0 and ranked #19 in the nation. After their first two games the Wolverines seemed to be better than our #15 ranking, but two straight near-losses (28-24 Akron at home and 24-21 UConn on the road) made them look much less fierce. Add in the fact that their "impressive" 41-30 win over Notre Dame is diminished given how the Irish have played in every other game. So in addition to slipping to #28 in our Bayesian/Modified ratings, they rank just #66 in the unbiased Strength power rating. Minnesota will provide a good foe for comparison; the Gophers have been steady in the aggregate and if they test Michigan in Ann Arbor it will be the third time an inferior foe did so. Vegas is still expecting a margin indicative of pre-season expectations, treating the Wolverines' woes as a 2-game aberration rather than a trend. We'll see what happens.
Pre-season Prediction: Michigan by 18
Modified Prediction: Michigan by 16
Strength power rating: Michigan by 6 (34-27)
Vegas line/spread: Michigan by 18 1/2 - Big Ten Question #3: Could Northwestern actually be overrated?
Team Pre-season Modified Strength PR
Ohio State (4-0) #7 #4 #11
@N'western (4-0) #25 #37 #56
We had high hopes for Northwestern going in, ranking them #25 and suggesting that the game in Evanston could be a trap for the Buckeyes. But the Wildcats haven't played as well as we thought they would, falling to #37 in our Modified ratings. That, and the fact that they're ranked #16 in the AP poll diminishes their chances for an upset: they're not playing well enough, and Ohio State isn't going to underestimate the 4-0 squad. If anything they might overestimate them as Northwestern might be overrated. The Strength power rating—still in its early weeks of course—puts Northwestern at #56 and predicts an easy Ohio State win. If the Wildcats give the Buckeyes enough trouble they might deserve their AP ranking, and certainly so if they get the upset. How well they can do against an elite foe will say a lot about the team's future this season. Vegas interestingly shows a subdued line.
Pre-season Prediction: Ohio State by 6
Modified Prediction: Ohio State by 19
Strength power rating: Ohio State by 20 (51-31)
Vegas line/spread: Ohio State by 6 1/2 - Big Ten Question #4: Is Iowa a sleeper for the Legends division title?
Team Pre-season Modified Strength PR
Mich St (4-1) #37 #34 #100
@Iowa (4-1) #66 #30 #40
In our pre-season, Iowa was ranked #66 and favored in none of their 8 Big Ten games. Five games later, they're #30 and favored to go 6-2 in-conference, losing only to Ohio State and a close game to Wisconsin. Overall, from a 4-8 cumulative projection they now project to 8-4. Michigan State's rating hasn't changed much, but they've played some teams that have underperformed like USF and Notre Dame. The pre-season prediction was a narrow Michigan State win; the Modified prediction calls for a narrow Iowa win; and using the Strength power rating it's an Iowa rout. If the latter happens then the Hawkeyes have a good chance to get to the Big Ten title game, believe it or not.
Pre-season Prediction: Michigan State by 6
Modified Prediction: Iowa by 5 1/2
Strength power rating: Iowa by 21 (24-3)
Vegas line/spread: Iowa by 1
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