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Baylor, the most impressive team compared to our pre-season rankings, finally touches #1 in our final Bayesian update to those rankings. The Bears whomped West Virginia 73-42, which when combined with their three other performances—and still using 1/3 of their pre-season #28 ranking—puts them just ahead of Oregon, who started the year at #2.
Since the Bayesian update doesn't account for movements in opposition quality, its usefulness is coming to an end and our regular, unbiased Strength power rating will supercede it. By next week those ratings will surely be a better measure of a team's strength. For now, let's look at where we started teams and where they've ending up after an average of 5 games per team.
Florida State makes a late push to #3, knocking Alabama to #4; the top four would make for a great playoff. LSU has a loss to Georgia but it was close and their other wins took them from #18 all the way to #5, while Ohio State was nearly static, up just one spot to #6. Texas A&M drifted down slowely week by week from #3 to #7. Louisville and Stanford have both bucked our lower rankings and rose to #8 and #9 respectively, while Clemson rose 4 spots to #10.
Oklahoma was erratic but in the end was up 10 spots to #11; another Big Twelve team, Texas Tech, has been one of the year's surprises, rising from #50 all the way to #12. Arizona State has somewhat disappointed while still playing pretty well at times, dropping from #8 to #13. Missouri and UCLA are decidedly up, while Georgia is down—particularly after needing overtime to beat Tennessee. Wisconsin ended up 10 spots despite 2 losses.
Washington was our pre-season "surprise" pick all the way at #12, and they've nearly lived up to it so far, remaining in the top 20 at #18. Florida has played almost exactly to our projections, down 3 to #19. Utah State doesn't have the record to show for it but they're up from #38 to #20 due to three oversized wins and 2 of 3 losses being very close and on the road. Arizona has only a loss to Washington and is up from #30 to #21. Miami slipped just a bit to #22, while Michigan's poor outings against Akron and UConn dropped the 5-0 Wolverines from #15 to #23. Utah had two close losses but some strong wins that took them from #60 all the way to #24. South Carolina started at #13 and has faded to #25.
Final (week 6) Bayesian update to pre-season rankings
pre- season |
Week1 | Week2 | Week3 | Week4 | Week5 | Week6 | Team | Total Change |
Rating |
28 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | Baylor | +27 | 82.17 |
2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Oregon | 0 | 81.15 |
9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | Florida St | +6 | 76.66 |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | Alabama | -3 | 73.09 |
18 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 5 | LSU | +13 | 71.58 |
7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 6 | Ohio State | +1 | 71.30 |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | Texas A&M | -4 | 70.61 |
26 | 21 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 8 | Louisville | +18 | 69.30 |
19 | 19 | 15 | 23 | 16 | 8 | 9 | Stanford | +10 | 68.65 |
14 | 15 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 16 | 10 | Clemson | +4 | 67.25 |
21 | 17 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 11 | Oklahoma | +10 | 66.93 |
50 | 42 | 33 | 27 | 24 | 26 | 12 | Texas Tech | +38 | 65.19 |
8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 13 | Arizona St | -5 | 64.96 |
33 | 30 | 28 | 31 | 25 | 24 | 14 | Missouri | +19 | 64.89 |
23 | 20 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 15 | UCLA | +8 | 64.17 |
4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 16 | Georgia | -12 | 64.08 |
27 | 31 | 29 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 17 | Wisconsin | +10 | 62.36 |
12 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 19 | 18 | Washington | -6 | 62.08 |
16 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 19 | Florida | -3 | 61.68 |
38 | 43 | 40 | 29 | 26 | 14 | 20 | Utah St | +18 | 61.65 |
30 | 29 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 22 | 21 | Arizona | +9 | 61.60 |
17 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 27 | 23 | 22 | Miami FL | -5 | 61.29 |
15 | 11 | 11 | 20 | 28 | 28 | 23 | Michigan | -8 | 61.08 |
60 | 53 | 37 | 33 | 23 | 25 | 24 | Utah | +36 | 61.00 |
13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 25 | South Carolina | -12 | 60.87 |
11 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 26 | Mississippi | -15 | 60.19 |
31 | 35 | 25 | 26 | 32 | 31 | 27 | BYU | +4 | 60.01 |
6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 21 | 28 | Oklahoma St | -22 | 59.77 |
34 | 24 | 23 | 19 | 17 | 27 | 29 | Georgia Tech | +5 | 58.83 |
52 | 44 | 44 | 38 | 42 | 32 | 30 | Virginia Tech | +22 | 58.68 |
51 | 49 | 43 | 37 | 36 | 39 | 31 | Auburn | +20 | 57.95 |
66 | 64 | 66 | 59 | 38 | 30 | 32 | Iowa | +34 | 56.72 |
37 | 41 | 45 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 33 | Michigan St | +4 | 56.53 |
29 | 33 | 32 | 42 | 37 | 40 | 34 | Kansas St | -5 | 56.30 |
5 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 29 | 29 | 35 | Texas | -30 | 55.68 |
45 | 56 | 47 | 47 | 50 | 33 | 36 | Boise St | +9 | 55.64 |
20 | 25 | 31 | 28 | 30 | 36 | 37 | Southern Cal | -17 | 55.11 |
22 | 26 | 27 | 32 | 31 | 42 | 38 | Notre Dame | -16 | 54.84 |
53 | 45 | 42 | 39 | 41 | 38 | 39 | Central Florida | +14 | 54.78 |
25 | 28 | 26 | 30 | 35 | 37 | 40 | Northwestern | -15 | 54.37 |
24 | 27 | 34 | 45 | 48 | 41 | 41 | TCU | -17 | 53.37 |
42 | 34 | 52 | 40 | 51 | 50 | 42 | Indiana | 0 | 53.02 |
78 | 71 | 62 | 61 | 59 | 58 | 43 | Ball St | +35 | 52.83 |
57 | 57 | 51 | 41 | 39 | 52 | 44 | Washington St | +13 | 52.19 |
41 | 48 | 46 | 54 | 45 | 44 | 45 | Nebraska | -4 | 52.13 |
10 | 23 | 30 | 35 | 43 | 47 | 46 | Oregon St | -36 | 51.76 |
61 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 64 | 48 | 47 | East Carolina | +14 | 51.74 |
43 | 46 | 39 | 46 | 49 | 54 | 48 | Tennessee | -5 | 51.59 |
58 | 50 | 49 | 50 | 53 | 51 | 49 | Marshall | +9 | 51.30 |
55 | 51 | 50 | 51 | 44 | 43 | 50 | Penn State | +5 | 50.49 |
47 | 59 | 60 | 69 | 70 | 62 | 51 | Iowa St | -4 | 49.75 |
72 | 70 | 57 | 48 | 34 | 35 | 52 | Maryland | +20 | 49.54 |
83 | 68 | 68 | 65 | 63 | 60 | 53 | Arkansas | +30 | 49.31 |
108 | 103 | 76 | 67 | 69 | 59 | 54 | Illinois | +54 | 49.08 |
36 | 37 | 36 | 52 | 65 | 56 | 55 | Northern Illinois | -19 | 48.95 |
95 | 92 | 86 | 87 | 72 | 57 | 56 | Houston | +39 | 48.57 |
62 | 61 | 65 | 53 | 47 | 46 | 57 | Syracuse | +5 | 48.49 |
69 | 54 | 48 | 58 | 52 | 49 | 58 | Bowling Green | +11 | 48.20 |
48 | 55 | 56 | 56 | 58 | 63 | 59 | Fresno St | -11 | 48.14 |
68 | 66 | 67 | 64 | 60 | 66 | 60 | Toledo | +8 | 47.94 |
39 | 40 | 53 | 57 | 46 | 45 | 61 | Mississippi St | -22 | 47.51 |
77 | 67 | 77 | 92 | 76 | 77 | 62 | Western Kentucky | +15 | 47.46 |
64 | 72 | 64 | 66 | 68 | 70 | 63 | Kentucky | +1 | 46.17 |
46 | 38 | 58 | 49 | 54 | 55 | 64 | Cincinnati | -18 | 46.13 |
35 | 36 | 35 | 36 | 40 | 61 | 65 | North Carolina | -30 | 45.37 |
56 | 58 | 59 | 63 | 66 | 68 | 66 | Boston College | -10 | 45.09 |
40 | 39 | 38 | 44 | 55 | 65 | 67 | Rice | -27 | 44.89 |
103 | 99 | 100 | 91 | 89 | 79 | 68 | Florida Atlantic | +35 | 44.83 |
102 | 100 | 90 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 69 | Navy | +33 | 44.64 |
65 | 77 | 78 | 68 | 73 | 73 | 70 | LA-Lafayette | -5 | 44.62 |
74 | 87 | 81 | 76 | 67 | 69 | 71 | Colorado St | +3 | 44.42 |
32 | 32 | 41 | 43 | 56 | 53 | 72 | Vanderbilt | -40 | 44.35 |
82 | 85 | 87 | 80 | 80 | 71 | 73 | Pittsburgh | +9 | 43.37 |
63 | 52 | 55 | 60 | 57 | 67 | 74 | Minnesota | -11 | 43.13 |
89 | 97 | 94 | 94 | 93 | 90 | 75 | Ohio U. | 14 | 43.07 |
76 | 69 | 72 | 75 | 74 | 64 | 76 | North Carolina St | 0 | 42.82 |
75 | 65 | 69 | 72 | 79 | 78 | 77 | Rutgers | -2 | 42.78 |
97 | 88 | 85 | 77 | 61 | 74 | 78 | Wyoming | +19 | 42.77 |
96 | 86 | 74 | 78 | 81 | 76 | 79 | Colorado | +17 | 41.72 |
85 | 82 | 82 | 81 | 75 | 75 | 80 | North Texas | +5 | 41.38 |
79 | 74 | 63 | 71 | 78 | 82 | 81 | Duke | -2 | 40.35 |
73 | 83 | 70 | 73 | 95 | 80 | 82 | West Virginia | -9 | 39.82 |
91 | 91 | 96 | 95 | 86 | 85 | 83 | Memphis | +8 | 39.63 |
44 | 47 | 54 | 55 | 62 | 81 | 84 | San Jose St | -40 | 39.51 |
86 | 79 | 99 | 104 | 100 | 89 | 85 | Buffalo | +1 | 38.36 |
67 | 78 | 80 | 84 | 83 | 86 | 86 | SMU | -19 | 38.15 |
105 | 102 | 103 | 100 | 107 | 92 | 87 | Tulane | +18 | 37.60 |
84 | 80 | 89 | 83 | 85 | 84 | 88 | California | -4 | 37.09 |
59 | 75 | 73 | 88 | 87 | 94 | 89 | Tulsa | -30 | 36.78 |
106 | 108 | 98 | 109 | 99 | 103 | 90 | Nevada | +16 | 36.73 |
94 | 104 | 101 | 98 | 94 | 101 | 91 | Wake Forest | +3 | 36.64 |
109 | 109 | 106 | 99 | 98 | 91 | 92 | South Alabama | +17 | 36.57 |
71 | 63 | 71 | 74 | 77 | 83 | 93 | Virginia | -22 | 35.94 |
80 | 84 | 88 | 90 | 90 | 93 | 94 | Middle Tennessee St | -14 | 35.58 |
111 | 107 | 95 | 96 | 101 | 99 | 95 | Hawaii | +16 | 35.52 |
70 | 81 | 83 | 79 | 88 | 96 | 96 | Purdue | -26 | 34.91 |
49 | 76 | 84 | 85 | 82 | 87 | 97 | San Diego St | -48 | 34.57 |
87 | 73 | 79 | 89 | 96 | 97 | 98 | Arkansas St | -11 | 34.56 |
98 | 95 | 91 | 93 | 84 | 95 | 99 | Texas-San Antonio | -1 | 33.42 |
107 | 101 | 109 | 101 | 103 | 102 | 100 | Army | +7 | 33.15 |
81 | 93 | 93 | 97 | 92 | 104 | 101 | Connecticut | -20 | 33.12 |
90 | 90 | 92 | 86 | 91 | 88 | 102 | Kansas | -12 | 32.39 |
101 | 98 | 105 | 106 | 106 | 100 | 103 | Texas St. | -2 | 32.27 |
88 | 96 | 102 | 105 | 109 | 106 | 104 | Kent St | -16 | 31.54 |
113 | 115 | 112 | 114 | 111 | 113 | 105 | New Mexico | +8 | 31.36 |
100 | 106 | 115 | 113 | 108 | 107 | 106 | UNLV | -6 | 30.72 |
117 | 116 | 110 | 108 | 112 | 108 | 107 | Troy | +10 | 29.48 |
104 | 105 | 107 | 107 | 102 | 105 | 108 | UAB | -4 | 29.10 |
92 | 111 | 108 | 115 | 113 | 111 | 109 | South Florida | -17 | 28.83 |
110 | 113 | 113 | 102 | 97 | 98 | 110 | Akron | 0 | 28.53 |
99 | 94 | 97 | 110 | 105 | 110 | 111 | Temple | -12 | 26.89 |
112 | 112 | 114 | 111 | 110 | 109 | 112 | UTEP | 0 | 26.61 |
116 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 117 | 112 | 113 | Air Force | +3 | 24.67 |
118 | 118 | 118 | 118 | 116 | 115 | 114 | Louisiana Tech | +4 | 24.21 |
114 | 117 | 117 | 116 | 118 | 117 | 115 | Central Michigan | -1 | 23.48 |
125 | 124 | 123 | 122 | 120 | 120 | 116 | Massachusetts | +9 | 22.62 |
54 | 62 | 75 | 82 | 104 | 114 | 117 | LA-Monroe | -63 | 20.04 |
93 | 89 | 104 | 103 | 114 | 116 | 118 | Western Mich. | -25 | 19.87 |
115 | 114 | 116 | 117 | 115 | 118 | 119 | Southern Miss | -4 | 18.78 |
124 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 124 | 124 | 120 | Georgia State | +4 | 17.99 |
120 | 120 | 121 | 120 | 121 | 123 | 121 | Eastern Michigan | -1 | 16.56 |
123 | 125 | 125 | 123 | 123 | 121 | 122 | Idaho | +1 | 16.55 |
119 | 119 | 119 | 119 | 119 | 122 | 123 | Miami OH | -4 | 16.36 |
122 | 122 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 119 | 124 | New Mexico St | -2 | 14.47 |
121 | 121 | 122 | 124 | 125 | 125 | 125 | Florida Int'l | -4 | 10.78 |
The teams that started in our top 25 and fell out are: Mississippi, ranked #11 to start but stumbled in a loss to Auburn lately; Oklahoma State, #6 at the beginning but a loss to West Virginia, and trouble with Kansas State, dropped them to #28. Pre-season #5 Texas is a story most are familiar with; the Longhorns fell every week they played, including losses to BYU and Mississippi and a meager win over Iowa State, and now are just #35. Southern Cal started at #20, and Lane Kiffin's job status could tell you they aren't there any more. And Notre Dame played poorly every week until last week but still dropped to #38 from #23. #24 TCU and #25 Northwestern also disappointed a bit and fell to #41 and #40. The worst fall was by Oregon State. Despite a 4-1 record they greatly underperformed their lofty #10 ranking each week, particularly in the opening home loss to Eastern Washington. They settled at #46.
Outperformers who didn't reach the top 25 include Virginia Tech (up from #52 to #30), Auburn (from #51 to #31), and Iowa (up from #66 to #32). Central Florida ended up 14 spots to #39, and Ball State's 48-27 crushing of Virginia capped a 35-spot rise to #43. Washington State was up 13 and East Carolina 14.
Some teams we thought would be awful but turned out to be above average at least: Maryland, despite the 63-0 loss to FSU, was up from #72 to #52. Arkansas didn't win much but they were 30 spots better than our #83 projection. And Illinois outperformed every time out and rose from #108 to #54, an amazing 54 spots. Houston's rise from #95 to #56 is about the opposite of last year's tumble from greatness.
Mississippi State and North Carolina went the other way, falling 22 and 30 spots to #61 and #65 respectively; we picked Rice to have a great year and so far it hasn't been as they have settled back to #67, down 27. And Vanderbilt has crashed from #32 to #72. Meanwhile FAU and Navy, who started at #103 and #102, sit at #68 and #69.
Some teams really hit the skids. So far San Jose State isn't looking like the #44 team we thought they'd be; more like #84. Tulsa is down 30 spots to #89, and San Diego State is down a whopping 48 to #97. Worst of all, of course, was Louisiana-Monroe, down from our pre-season #54 to #117 after three big losses in a row. They're still 2-4 so far, so they aren't remotely the worst team, just the biggest underperformer of the year: their rating is four touchdowns per game lower than we expected.
The worst team looks like Florida International. But they got a road win at Southern Miss last week, showing that even the lowest-performing teams have hope.
Just for curiosities sake: the teams that didn't budge were Oregon (started #2 and lived up to it); Indiana (all over the place before settling back at #42); North Carolina State (at #72, up and down only over their last 2 games); Akron (boosted by close Michigan loss, they were crushed by Ohio and ended up back at #110) and UTEP (the steadiest team, went in a tight range from #109 to #114 and ended where they started at #112)
Next week we stop talking about the pre-season at all, as the pecking order has been established. We'll do one more post comparing these rankings with the current power rating, seeing if and where there are discrepancies and where there is agreement.
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