Yes, more about Baylor. Now that we've run the yardage stats for the first time this year, we see just how crazy Baylor's offense has been: against the average FBS team they are putting up over 850 yards of total offense.
The usual caveats apply here, even moreso for yardage this early in the season. For most teams 20% of their total is against FCS teams and is meaningless. That leaves maybe 4 games against FBS teams and the numbers swings are pretty wild. Baylor has played only 4 games, 3 against FBS teams.
Still, you can't ignore what they've been doing. After adjusting for opposition they lead the nation in both rushing and passing yardage, and are #1 in total offense by a huge margin.
Total offense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013
Raw Adj Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1 1. Baylor 4-0 853.2[ 1] 373.0[ 1] 480.2[ 1]
3 2. Texas A&M 4-1 604.6[ 2] 259.8[ 12] 344.8[ 11]
2 3. Oregon 5-0 604.6[ 3] 314.6[ 4] 289.9[ 33]
22 4. Arizona St 3-2 592.9[ 4] 177.6[ 59] 415.2[ 2]
11 5. Georgia 4-1 576.9[ 5] 235.9[ 21] 340.9[ 12]
The gap between Baylor and the #2 teams is about 250 yards per game. Texas A&M and Oregon are neck-and-neck for #2 (in raw yardage Oregon leads A&M by about 35 yards per game but the Aggies of course played Alabama).
Baylor's passing numbers are crazy; they average almost 500 yards against an "average" defense:
Passing Offense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013
Raw Adj Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1 1. Baylor 4-0 853.2[ 1] 373.0[ 1] 480.2[ 1]
9 2. Arizona St 3-2 592.9[ 4] 177.6[ 59] 415.2[ 2]
2 3. Oregon St 4-1 455.5[ 43] 58.0[126] 397.5[ 3]
8 4. Washington St 4-2 458.6[ 42] 71.2[124] 387.4[ 4]
10 5. Indiana 3-2 574.5[ 6] 205.2[ 39] 369.3[ 5]
In rushing Baylor actually is #2 in raw yardage to New Mexico. But Baylor has faced tougher rushing defenses than the Lobos, so they beat them by nearly 40 yards when adjusted. Note that other than Baylor, no top 5 passing team is even in the top 35 in rushing.
Rushing Offense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013
Raw Adj Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
2 1. Baylor 4-0 853.2[ 1] 373.0[ 1] 480.2[ 1]
1 2. New Mexico 2-3 388.2[ 83] 332.2[ 2] 56.0[126]
4 3. Army 2-4 382.7[ 86] 326.5[ 3] 56.1[125]
3 4. Oregon 5-0 604.6[ 3] 314.6[ 4] 289.9[ 33]
7 5. Georgia Tech 3-2 418.8[ 62] 308.0[ 5] 110.8[122]
Again, note the number of one-dimensional offenses at the top: New Mexico, Army, and Georgia Tech are all in the bottom few in passing yardage. Even Oregon is only #33.
So the Bears are remarkably not only for the sheer volume of offense but also their balance: they're great at both running and passing the ball. So what teams have a defense that could slow them down?
Total Defense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013
Raw Adj Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
2 1. Florida 4-1 170.6[ 1] 4.5[ 1] 166.0[ 8]
7 2. Florida St 5-0 240.2[ 2] 87.2[ 8] 152.9[ 4]
5 3. Virginia Tech 5-1 243.7[ 3] 85.8[ 6] 157.8[ 5]
1 4. Michigan St 4-1 252.8[ 4] 69.4[ 2] 183.4[ 21]
14 5. Southern Cal 3-2 255.8[ 5] 127.6[ 34] 128.1[ 1]
10 6. Washington 4-1 269.6[ 6] 106.6[ 18] 163.0[ 7]
16 7. Memphis 1-3 271.1[ 7] 73.7[ 3] 197.3[ 31]
12 8. Alabama 5-0 275.1[ 8] 97.1[ 13] 177.9[ 17]
3 9. Louisville 5-0 276.2[ 9] 96.8[ 12] 179.3[ 18]
6 10. Wisconsin 3-2 278.2[ 10] 109.1[ 20] 169.0[ 11]
Presumably that defense would need to be very strong against both the run and the pass. The top three teams here seem to fit that description, with Florida, Florida State, and Virginia Tech in the top ten against both.
The passing defense rankings are pretty interesting:
Passing Defense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013
Raw Adj Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
33 1. Southern Cal 3-2 255.8[ 5] 127.6[ 34] 128.1[ 1]
61 2. West Virginia 3-3 325.2[ 20] 189.6[ 96] 135.5[ 2]
19 3. Arizona 3-1 300.9[ 16] 159.3[ 67] 141.6[ 3]
5 4. Florida St 5-0 240.2[ 2] 87.2[ 8] 152.9[ 4]
9 5. Virginia Tech 5-1 243.7[ 3] 85.8[ 6] 157.8[ 5]
According to this chart, Baylor has already faced the #2 passing defense in the country and racked up 396 yards against them. That's much lower than their adjusted 480 yard average, however, one reason the Mountaineers rank so high. Note that they are just #61 in raw numbers—an average pass defense. But they held Oklahoma (245 adjusted average) to 119 yards, for example, so the average team would expect to only get 135 yards against them. The same logic shows how USC ends up at #1 (they held #4 passing team Washington State to just 215, for example). And, of course, it's still pretty early in the season and these numbers will change—Florida State and Virginia Tech are probably more reliably ranked right now.
Rushing Defense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013
Raw Adj Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
2 1. Florida 4-1 170.6[ 1] 4.5[ 1] 166.0[ 8]
1 2. Michigan St 4-1 252.8[ 4] 69.4[ 2] 183.4[ 21]
16 3. Memphis 1-3 271.1[ 7] 73.7[ 3] 197.3[ 31]
5 4. East Carolina 4-1 362.6[ 47] 76.8[ 4] 285.8[110]
3 5. Rutgers 4-1 423.1[ 84] 84.5[ 5] 338.5[126]
And then there's Florida, who has the best scoring and yardage defense; the latter is mostly due to their insane rushing defense, which according to the numbers so far would hold the average team to under 5 yards per game. Here's a look at what they've given up so far, and what their opponents average in raw figures:
Opponent Ave vs. FLA diff
Toledo 208.8 50 -158.8
Miami FL 213.8 50 -163.8
Tennessee 211.0 66 -145.0
Kentucky 162.2 48 -114.2
Arkansas 216.0 111 -105.0
When you consider that those teams' averages are brought way down by their game with Florida, it's not hard to see that the Gators are holding teams to a ridiculous amount below their former average, maybe by 170 yards or so. With the average FBS gaining maybe 175 yards per game, they're expected to net just 5 yards against the Gators. Now, that's a bit silly; it would imply that probably 50 teams should have negative yardage vs. Florida. But after just 5 games these things show up in the stats. The rest of the top five in rushing defense have realistic numbers and Florida will join them, but don't be surprised if their adjusted average stays below 50 yards per game.
What would happen if Baylor met Florida? It would be great to see, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if it ended up happening in the Fiesta or Cotton Bowl.
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