2013 Heisman Race, week 7

Week seven is in the books and we have a very solid top three in the Heisman race—it seems likely these could be the top three at the end of the year. The only question is, in what order?

Johnny Manziel retains the top spot he's held all year so far with another remarkable comeback performance against Mississippi. After throwing a pick into the end zone and fumbling, Manziel made several big plays with his feet—including a 4th-and-7 where he took a hit so hard Sederius Bryant was carted away with a concussion—ending in a touchdown dive to tie the game and another drive to set up the winning field goal. He's not undefeated and his stats aren't necessarily the best, but he's had more "Heisman moments" than anyone bar none.

Tajh Boyd, however, set himself up to take the top spot away next week if Clemson can beat Florida State. Boyd played well enough in the Tigers' look-ahead game against B.C. that if he does well next week in a win, he'll be 7-0 and more important, 2-0 in huge games to Manziel's 0-1. His TD to turnover ratio of 20:2 is pretty stellar, too.

Oregon's Marcus Mariota moves up a spot to #3 after accounting for four more touchdowns in a big win over Washington. Some people are already saying "they should just hand him the Heisman" which is a stupid thing to say at any point other than the last week of the season. If Oregon loses a game then Mariota's candidacy takes a big hit. If they don't, he'll be in great position, guaranteed, and if he can keep the "0" portion of his 25:0 TD:TO ratio, he will have the Heisman handed to him. His completion percentage is a big poor but he helped it last week and he still averages in double figures running the ball. At some point people will notice that Oregon really has "system" quarterbacks but the way Mariota is playing that might not be an issue.

Teddy Bridgewater falls to fourth; he didn't play all that well against Rutgers and it showed in the final score. But as long as Louisville keeps winning Bridgewater will have a ticket to New York (assuming more than 3 players get there). To get back into the top 3 he'll need to pick up the production. Notice that the top three are all dual-threat quarterbacks, so that means Teddy needs passing yards and touchdowns. Or for the other candidates to stumble badly. That always helps.

1. Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M (5-1; beat Ole Miss 41-38)
   LW:   31-39  79.5%  346yd  0TD 1int  19rsh 124yd 6.5av 2TD 1fmb
   TOT: 131-179 73.2% 1835yd 14TD 5int  67rsh 438yd 6.5av 5TD 1fmb
2. Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson (6-0; beat Boston College 24-14)
   LW:   30-44  68.2%  334yd  1TD 0int   9rsh  33yd 3.7av 1TD 0fmb
   TOT: 123-185 66.5% 1783yd 15TD 2int  66rsh 187yd 2.8av 5TD 0fmb
3. [up 1] Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (6-0; beat Washington 45-24)
   LW:   24-31  77.4%  366yd  3TD 0int  13rsh  88yd 6.8av 1TD 0fmb
   TOT: 100-165 60.6% 1724yd 17TD 0int  41rsh 426yd  10av 8TD 0fmb
4. [dn 1] Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville (6-0; beat Rutgers 24-10)
   LW:   21-31  67.7%  310yd  2TD 1int   7rsh  11yd 1.6av 0TD 1fmb
   TOT: 125-176 71.0% 1872yd 18TD 2int  22rsh  49yd 2.2av 0TD 1fmb
5. Jordan Lynch, QB N. Illinois (6-0; beat Akron 27-20)
   LW:   16-35  45.7%  220yd  1TD 0int  15rsh  83yd 5.5av 1TD 0fmb
   TOT: 118-195 60.5% 1333yd 13TD 4int 106rsh 616yd 5.8av 4TD 1fmb
6. Aaron Murray, QB Georgia (4-2; lost to Missouri 41-26)
   LW:   25-45  55.6%  290yd  3TD 2int  4rsh   5yd 1.3av 0TD 1fmb
   TOT: 123-196 62.8% 1824yd 17TD 5int 28rsh  78yd 2.8av 3TD 2fmb
7. Braxton Miller, QB Ohio State (6-0; idle)
   LW:   DNP; no game last week
   TOT:  49-75  65.3%  609yd  6TD 2int 57rsh 233yd 4.1av 0TD 2fmb
8. [up 1] Jameis Winston, QB Florida State (5-0; idle)
   LW:   DNP; no game last week
   TOT:  90-123 73.2% 1441yd 17TD 2int 36rsh 135yd 3.8av 2TD 0fmb
9. [up 1] Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (4-2; beat Northwestern 35-6)
   LW:   22rsh 172yd 7.8av 1TD 0fmb; 1rec 5yd 0TD; 0retYd
   TOT:  90rsh 870yd 9.7av 8TD 0fmb; 1rec 5yd 0TD; 0retYd
10. [new] Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon St (5-1; beat Washington State 52-24)
    LW:  11rec 137yd  2TD 0fmb;  4rsh  34yd 8.5av 1TD 0fmb;   0retYd 0TD 0fmb
    TOT: 63rec 944yd 11TD 0fmb; 16rsh 106yd 6.6av 1TD 0fmb;  -2retYd 0TD 1fmb
11. [dn 3] Marqise Lee, WR USC (4-2; beat Arizona 38-31)
    LW:  DNP; injury
    TOT: 30rec 385yd  1TD 0fmb;  5rsh   1yd 0.2av 0TD 0fmb; 145retYd 0TD 1fmb
12. [dn 1] Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina (5-1; beat Arkansas 52-7)
    LW:   2 tackle 0 sack + 0 tfl 0 pbu 0 int 0 ffmb 0 blocked kicks
    TOT: 14 tackle 2 sack + 1 tfl 0 pbu 0 int 1 ffmb 0 blocked kicks

Up to five players make the trip to New York, and if there's a fifth it could be one of the following quarterbacks, but they all have to up their game as last week wasn't a good one. Jordan Lynch of Northern Illinois completed just 46% of his passes in a narrow win over Akron, the kind of team a Heisman candidate should feast on. His rushing totals are impressive and his team is 6-0 so there's a chance he starts to get noticed like last year, but he needs to make it happen.

The only reason Lynch doesn't drop a spot is because Aaron Murray had an even worse outing with a fumble returned for a touchdown and two interceptions. Of course, just a week after calling him a front-runner some are saying he's dead in the water but if Georgia wins out they'd probably face Alabama in the SEC title game, so the chance is still there for Murray to be relevant, but everything has to go his way. He's a good example of why we don't jump players up to the top willy-nilly. And then there's Braxton Miller, whose team didn't play so he and his meager stats couldn't take advantage of the others' misfortunes. For Miller to get to New York he needs to have about 350 passing yards per game, about 3 touchdowns, and maybe 100 rushing yards wouldn't hurt. Then, if Ohio State is the only undefeated team, people will be talking about his candidacy again.

At #8, up one, is Jameis Winston of Florida State. Idle last week, this next game will determine whether he remains in the race. A win would give him a huge boost of course while a loss means he gets lost in the shuffle of the endless supply of quarterbacks available. And there are quite a few that aren't on the list yet. Bretty Hundley of UCLA is getting some attention, but his stats are nothing special; unless UCLA wins its big Pac-12 games don't expect to see him here. Bryce Petty of Baylor is putting up huge numbers but he's got to be the ultimate "system" quarterback given Baylor's offense. Sean Mannion of Oregon is way out in front with over 2,500 passing yards in essentially a passing-only offense. And at some point A.J. McCarron will get buzz as the "best player on the best team" candidate if #1 Alabama remains undefeated while other teams take losses.

The top running back continues to be Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin who had 172 yards against Northwestern and moves up to #9. He very nearly held onto his 10-yard-per-carry average, too. Other RBs that we might consider include Bishop Sankey of Washington; if the Huskies had defeated either Stanford or Oregon he'd be here already. Lache Seastrunk looked strong until he had just 54 yards against Kansas State, and Mike Davis of South Carolina is making waves in some quarters but again, let's see him lead his team to a big victory or get to the top 5 in stats.

Instead of adding a running back—or yet another quarterback—this week we chose Sean Mannion's top target, Brandin Cooks. He's the only receiver in the country averaging over 150 yards per game and last week he had 2 TD catches and one rushing touchdown. He averages over 10 catches per game and 2 TDs per game. Cooks moves in at #10, one spot above the fading Marqise Lee, who missed another game with injury and has no hope of getting back into the mix.

And at some point we may want to add another defensive player since it looks like Jadeveon Clowney won't even be the token top-10 player this season. He had just two tackles vs. Arkansas. Vic Beasley of Clemson is getting some notice, but we prefer Anthony Barr of UCLA at this point. With only three more players to add before we start cutting, we're not sure a D-only player will make the list, but it's looking like Clowney will be the first cut.